Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and...
Transcript of Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and...
![Page 1: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
OperationalResilienceAnalysisandCapacityBuildingintheUSVirginIslands
DavidL. Alderson,PhDAssociateProfessor,OperationsResearchDepartment
Director,CenterforInfrastructureDefenseNavalPostgraduateSchool
Workshop:FundamentalsofMicrogrid AnalysisandDesignSandiaNationalLaboratories&UniversityoftheVirginIslands
St.CroixCampus(24Oct2018)&St.ThomasCampus(26Oct2018)Unclassified.Distributionunlimited.Materialcontainedhereinrepresentsthesoleopinionoftheauthoranddoes
notnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheU.S.DepartmentofDefenseoritscomponents.
![Page 2: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
NavalPostgraduateSchool(NPS)America'snationalsecurityresearchuniversity
HistoryHighlights1909 Founded at U.S. Naval Academy
1951 Moved to Monterey, CA Operations Research Curriculum
• Facilitiesofagraduateresearchuniversity
• FacultywhoworkfortheU.S.Navy,withclearances
• Studentswithfreshoperationalexperience
FY2017:• 65M.S.and15Ph.D.programs• 612faculty• 1432residentstudentsincludes
(166international/47countries)• 909distributedlearningstudents
![Page 3: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• OperationsResearch(OR)isthescienceofhelpingpeopleandorganizationsmakebetterdecisionsusing– mathematicalmodels,statisticalanalyses,simulations– analyticalreasoningandcommonsensetotheunderstandingandimprovementofreal-worldoperations.
• ORoriginatedduringWorldWarII.ThemilitaryusesORatthestrategic,operational,andtacticallevels.
• BiggestusersofOR:moderncorporations– Supplychainlogistics– Manufacturingandproductionplanning– Scheduling
• NPShastheoldestORinstructionalprogramintheU.S.
OperationsResearchatNPS
3
![Page 4: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
NPSCenterforInfrastructureDefense(CID)OperationsResearchDepartment
DavidAldersonAssociateProfessor,ORDirector,NPSCenterfor
InfrastructureDefensePh.D.,StanfordUniversity,
2003
GeraldBrownDistinguishedEmeritus
Professor,ORMember,NationalAcademy
ofEngineeringPh.D.,U.C.L.A.,1974
W.MatthewCarlyleProfessor&Chair,OR
Ph.D.,StanfordUniversity,1997
JavierSalmerónAssociateProfessor,OR
Ph.D.,UniversidadPolitécnica (Spain),1998
RobertDellProfessor,OR
Ph.D.,S.U.N.Y.Buffalo,1990
DanielEisenbergResearchAssistant
Professor,OR
Ph.D.,ArizonaStateUniversity,2018
DanNussbaumVisitingProfessor,ORChair,NPSEnergy
AcademicGroup
Ph.D.,MichiganStateUniv.,1971
4
AlanHowardDeputyDirector,NPSEnergyAcademicGroup
MBA/MIMinInternationalManagement,2000
NPSEnergyAcademicGroup(EAG)JackTempletonProgramManager,NPSEnergyAcademicGroup
MSMDefenseSystemsAnalysis,NPS,2013
![Page 5: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
WhatisCriticalInfrastructure?• CriticalInfrastructure(CI):“systemsandassets,whetherphysicalorvirtual,
sovitaltotheUnitedStatesthattheincapacityordestructionofsuchsystemsandassetswouldhaveadebilitatingimpactonsecurity,nationaleconomicsecurity,nationalpublichealthorsafety,oranycombinationofthosematters” --Section1016(e)oftheUSAPATRIOTActof2001
4
![Page 6: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
CriticalInfrastructureSystems:NPShasauniqueperspectiveandcapability
• Wehavebeenstudyingcriticalinfrastructurefordecades.
• Welookatourowndomesticinfrastructurethroughtheeyesofintelligentadversaries.
• Wehaveconductedover150“redteamanalyses”toplanattacksonourowninfrastructure(anddeterminehowtomounteffectivehardeninganddefensiveefforts)
5
![Page 7: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
CriticalInfrastructureSystems:NPShasauniqueperspectiveandcapability
GoalsForThisSession• 10keyideas forhowtoassessandimproveoperationalresilienceofcriticalinfrastructures
• OngoingworkinapplyingtheseideastotheUSVI
• Wehavebeenstudyingcriticalinfrastructurefordecades.
• Welookatourowndomesticinfrastructurethroughtheeyesofintelligentadversaries.
• Wehaveconductedover150“redteamanalyses”toplanattacksonourowninfrastructure(anddeterminehowtomounteffectivehardeninganddefensiveefforts)
5
![Page 8: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
6
Idea#1:Startbyfocusingondeliveryofservices,not mitigationofhazards/threats
![Page 9: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
6
Idea#1:Startbyfocusingondeliveryofservices,not mitigationofhazards/threats
![Page 10: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
• ExtremeWeather– CoastalFlooding– RainfallFlooding– Wind– Drought
• Humanaccident• Technologicalfailure• Deliberateattack
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Whatcangowrong(interdiction)
6
Idea#1:Startbyfocusingondeliveryofservices,not mitigationofhazards/threats
![Page 11: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
• ExtremeWeather– CoastalFlooding– RainfallFlooding– Wind– Drought
• Humanaccident• Technologicalfailure• Deliberateattack
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Whatcangowrong(interdiction)
6
Idea#1:Startbyfocusingondeliveryofservices,not mitigationofhazards/threats
Idea#2:Avoidgettingstuckonpredefinedthreatscenarios.• SurpriseHappens.Thingswehavenotimagined.• Tunnelvision(onthelastdisaster).Needtobeproactive,notreactive.
![Page 12: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
“Wewillnotbeabletodeterallterroristthreats,anditisimpossibletodeterorpreventnaturalcatastrophes.Wecan,however,mitigatetheNation’svulnerabilitytoactsofterrorism,otherman-madethreats,andnaturaldisastersbyensuringthestructuralandoperationalresilienceofourcriticalinfrastructureandkeyresources”(p.27)
“Wemustnowfocusontheresilienceofthesystemasawhole– anapproachthatcentersoninvestmentsthatmakethesystembetterabletoabsorbtheimpactofaneventwithoutlosingthecapacitytofunction” (p.28)
U.S.NationalStrategyforHomelandSecurity(2007)
Apolicyshifttoward“operationalresilience”
Most recently: U.S. Presidential Policy Directive (PPD)-21: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience, 2013.
7
![Page 13: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
“systemasawhole”and“capacitytofunction”
8
![Page 14: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
“systemasawhole”and“capacitytofunction”
• Alistofassets• Aninterconnected(network)system thatworkstoachieveaparticularfunction
HowtoThinkAboutCriticalInfrastructure(CI)
8
![Page 15: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
“systemasawhole”and“capacitytofunction”
• Alistofassets• Aninterconnected(network)system thatworkstoachieveaparticularfunction
✖✔
HowtoThinkAboutCriticalInfrastructure(CI)
8
![Page 16: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
“systemasawhole”and“capacitytofunction”
• Alistofassets• Aninterconnected(network)system thatworkstoachieveaparticularfunction
✖✔
Wewanttomakeouroperations(publicandprivate)resilienttodisruptiveevents.
Weneedourinfrastructuresystemstocontinuetofunctionevenwhen“badthings”happen.
HowtoThinkAboutCriticalInfrastructure(CI)
Idea#3:Weneedtothinkintermsofsystems.
8
![Page 17: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• DODDirective3020.40:MissionAssurance(2016)
DODhasrecentlyreorganizeditseffortstoprotectdefense-relatedcriticalinfrastructureunderabroaderprogramofmissionassurance
• Keyrecognition
– Assets worktogetherassystems toprovidefunction
– Functionenablescapability
– Capabilitysupportsmission
• Focusneedstoremainontherelationshipbetweentheinfrastructureassetandthemissionsitsupports
Ashifttoward“operationalresilience”
Idea#3:Weneedtothinkintermsofsystems.
![Page 18: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
• ExtremeWeather– CoastalFlooding– RainfallFlooding– Wind– Drought
• Humanaccident• Technologicalfailure• Deliberateattack
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Whatcangowrong(interdiction)
9
![Page 19: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
• ExtremeWeather– CoastalFlooding– RainfallFlooding– Wind– Drought
• Humanaccident• Technologicalfailure• Deliberateattack
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Whatcangowrong(interdiction)
9
Idea#4:Resilienceisnotaboutwhatyouhave,itsaboutwhatyoudo!Thisisacommonmisperception.(Thinkofsafety asanotherconceptwiththisfeature…)
![Page 20: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Idea#5:Takean”operational”perspective
11
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
![Page 21: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Idea#5:Takean”operational”perspective
11
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Needtounderstandthedemandsofthepopulation• Demographics• Geography• Populationdensity• Specialneeds
![Page 22: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Idea#5:Takean”operational”perspective
11
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Needtounderstandthedemandsofthepopulation• Demographics• Geography• Populationdensity• Specialneeds
Movegoods/servicesfromareasofsupplytodemands:• Mustincludeinfrastructure
ownersandoperators• Bothpublicand private!
![Page 23: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Idea#5:Takean”operational”perspective
11
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Needtounderstandthedemandsofthepopulation• Demographics• Geography• Populationdensity• Specialneeds
Movegoods/servicesfromareasofsupplytodemands:• Mustincludeinfrastructure
ownersandoperators• Bothpublicand private!
Idea#6:Oftenrepresentedasflows throughnetworks.
![Page 24: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Idea#5:Takean”operational”perspective
11
• Electricity• Fuels• Transportation• Communications• Water&Wastewater• Emergencyresponse
Whatweneedtodo(operation)
Needtounderstandthedemandsofthepopulation• Demographics• Geography• Populationdensity• Specialneeds
Movegoods/servicesfromareasofsupplytodemands:• Mustincludeinfrastructure
ownersandoperators• Bothpublicand private!
Idea#6:Oftenrepresentedasflows throughnetworks.
Idea#7:Measure performance.Definemissionsuccess.
![Page 25: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
BUT…SystemsAreComplicated,SometimesComplex
• Interactionsoftennon-additiveandnon-intuitive.
• Aneventinonelocationcanoftenaffectthingsthatarefaraway,anditcanbehardtopredicthowthishappens.
• Thecontribution/importanceofasinglecomponenttosystemfunctionmaydependoninteractionswithothercomponents.
12
![Page 26: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
BUT…SystemsAreComplicated,SometimesComplex
• Interactionsoftennon-additiveandnon-intuitive.
• Aneventinonelocationcanoftenaffectthingsthatarefaraway,anditcanbehardtopredicthowthishappens.
• Thecontribution/importanceofasinglecomponenttosystemfunctionmaydependoninteractionswithothercomponents.
Idea#8:Guessingatwhatis“mostcritical”ispronetoerror
12
![Page 27: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
• Whendetermininghowbesttoprotectsystems,anaturalquestionis,“Whatcomponentsaremostcritical?”
• Betteryet:Whichcomponents,iflost,wouldbemostdisruptivetosystemfunction?
Definition:Acomponentiscritical iflosingitwouldsignificantlyreducesystemfunction(relativetothereductionfromlosingothercomponents).
Let’suseahistoricalexampletoillustrate…
Idea#8:Guessingatwhatis“mostcritical”ispronetoerror
13
![Page 28: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
TheRussianRailNetwork(circa1955)
DatafromFigure7of:Harris,T.E.,andRoss,F.S.(1955),FundamentalsofaMethodforEvaluatingRailNetCapacities(SECRET,
declassified1999),RM-1573,RANDCorp.
14
![Page 29: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
WhatisthecapacityoftheUSSRtodelivermaterieltoEuropeviarail?
14
![Page 30: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
2
52
3W 3E 2S
13N
12
ORIGIN
ORIGIN
originnodesdestinationnodes minimumcapacitycut
13SB
2
3
9
3
6
WhatisthecapacityoftheUSSRtodelivermaterieltoEuropeviarail?
3025.04.2018- Alderson- NPS 14
![Page 31: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
2
52
3W 3E 2S
13N
12
ORIGIN
ORIGIN
originnodesdestinationnodes minimumcapacitycut
13SB
2
3
9
3
6
WhatisthecapacityoftheUSSRtodelivermaterieltoEuropeviarail?
KeyInsight:Thecapacityofanetworkisequaltothesizeofthesmallestbottleneck.(a.k.a.“max-flow,min-cuttheorem”)
Butwhatarcsare“mostvital”?
25.04.2018- Alderson- NPS 14
![Page 32: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Findingthe“MostVital”Arc(s)isnottrivial!• Itrequiresyoutoconsidernotonlythecurrentpathsthroughthenetworkbutalsoanyalternatepaths
• Because…thesystemcanadjustitsflowsinresponsetoadisruption!
15
![Page 33: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Findingthe“MostVital”Arc(s)isnottrivial!• Itrequiresyoutoconsidernotonlythecurrentpathsthroughthenetworkbutalsoanyalternatepaths
• Because…thesystemcanadjustitsflowsinresponsetoadisruption!
Possible“guessingrules”fordeterminingwhatismostvital(Ahuja,Magnanti,andOrlin,“NetworkFlows”,Prentice-Hall,1993)
• Anarchavingthelargestcapacity• Anarccarryingthelargestflowintheoptimalsolution• Anarchavingthelargestcapacityinaminimum-capacitycut• Anymost-vitalarcisinsomeminimum-capacitycut
15
![Page 34: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Findingthe“MostVital”Arc(s)isnottrivial!• Itrequiresyoutoconsidernotonlythecurrentpathsthroughthenetworkbutalsoanyalternatepaths
• Because…thesystemcanadjustitsflowsinresponsetoadisruption!
Possible“guessingrules”fordeterminingwhatismostvital(Ahuja,Magnanti,andOrlin,“NetworkFlows”,Prentice-Hall,1993)
• Anarchavingthelargestcapacity• Anarccarryingthelargestflowintheoptimalsolution• Anarchavingthelargestcapacityinaminimum-capacitycut• Anymost-vitalarcisinsomeminimum-capacitycut
Ingeneral,noneofthese“guessingrules”work!
15
![Page 35: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity)
16
![Page 36: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity) 2minimumcapacitycuts!
16
![Page 37: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity)
largestcapacityarc
2minimumcapacitycuts!
16
![Page 38: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity)
largestcapacityarc
arcswithlargestflowinoptimal(maxflow)solution
2minimumcapacitycuts!
16
![Page 39: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity)
largestcapacityarc
arcswithlargestflowinoptimal(maxflow)solution
2minimumcapacitycuts!
arcswithlargestcapacityinmincapacitycut
16
![Page 40: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
counter-example:guessingtofindmostvitalarc
(15,20)
(5,5) (10,10)
(0,100)
(20,50)(20,50)(5,5) (10,10)
(10,10)1
2
3
4
5
6
7
i j(flow, capacity)
largestcapacityarc
arcswithlargestflowinoptimal(maxflow)solution
2minimumcapacitycuts!
arcswithlargestcapacityinmincapacitycut
mostvitalarc
Ingeneral,youcannotreliablyguess.Instead,determiningamostvitalarcrequiressolvinganetworkinterdictionproblem.
16
![Page 41: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
17
![Page 42: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
OurApproachinaNutshell1. Usingalimitedbudget,wewanttoinvestsothatwe
stillachievemissionsuccessevenwhenbadthingshappen(operationalresilience)
10
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
![Page 43: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
OurApproachinaNutshell1. Usingalimitedbudget,wewanttoinvestsothatwe
stillachievemissionsuccessevenwhenbadthingshappen(operationalresilience)
2. Tolearnhowto“defend”thesesystems,firstfigureouthowtoattack them
10
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
![Page 44: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
OurApproachinaNutshell1. Usingalimitedbudget,wewanttoinvestsothatwe
stillachievemissionsuccessevenwhenbadthingshappen(operationalresilience)
2. Tolearnhowto“defend”thesesystems,firstfigureouthowtoattack them
3. TolearnhowtoattackCI,firstlearnhowittooperateit(i.e.,howitworks)
10
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
![Page 45: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
OurApproachinaNutshell1. Usingalimitedbudget,wewanttoinvestsothatwe
stillachievemissionsuccessevenwhenbadthingshappen(operationalresilience)
2. Tolearnhowto“defend”thesesystems,firstfigureouthowtoattack them
3. TolearnhowtoattackCI,firstlearnhowittooperateit(i.e.,howitworks)
WecalltheseAttacker-DefenderandDefender-Attacker-Defendermodels.
10
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
![Page 46: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
WecalltheseAttacker-DefenderandDefender-Attacker-Defendermodels.
10
Idea#9:Useanattack-based(adversarial)perspectiveforplanning.(Thisisalsosometimescalled“redteaming”.)
•Ithelpstofocusesonsystemoperation.•Ithelpstodiscovervulnerabilities.•Ithelpstouncoverinterdependencies.•Ithelpstothinkaboutmitigation.
Ourexperience:Large-scale,long-terminterruptionsincriticalinfrastructureservicescanbecausedbythingsmuchsmallerthantwoCategory-5hurricanes!
![Page 47: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Idea#10:Investingforresiliencecanworkbetterwhenyoutothinkaboutthesystemasawhole.•Hardening(reinforcement)•Redundancy(backups,spares)•Capacityexpansion•Newinfrastructure
Thismeansstudyingmorethanjust“howweactuallydoitnow”.
Itrequireswealsoconsider“howcouldwedoitnow(andinthefuture)”!
18
![Page 48: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Wehaveusedscoresofthesemodelstoassessresilienceforawiderangeofsystems
OperatorModels• Shortest-pathproblems• Max-flowproblems• Min-costnetworkflowproblems• Multi-commodityflowproblems• Projectschedulingproblems• Linearprograms• Integer-Linearprograms• Nonlinearprograms• Nonlinear-Integerprograms
Applications• Electricpower• Potablewater• Fuelpipelines• Roadwaytransportation• Multi-modalshipping• Ports• Supplychains• Telecommunications
– Underseacables– Wirelessnetworkdesign
• Interdependentinfrastructures
These techniques scale up to realistic size and fidelity, and admit a host of standard models, many already in use by system operators.
20
![Page 49: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Case Study: Guam Power Authority
Reference: Salmerón, J., Alderson, D., Brown, G., and Wood, R.K., 2012, Resilience Report: The Guam Power Authority Electric Power Grid: Analyzing Vulnerability to Physical Attack (U), Center for Infrastructure Defense Technical Report NPS-OR-12-002, May. Distribution authorized to DoD and DoD Contractors only due to infrastructure vulnerability analysis (10 May 2012). Other requests for this document must be referred to President, Code 261, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943-5000 via the Defense Technical Information Center, 8725 John J. Kingman Rd., STE 0944, Ft. Belvoir, VA 22060-6218.
Prepared for: Air Force Research Lab (AFRL), Airbase Technologies Division, 139 Barnes Drive, Suite 2, Tyndal Air Force Base, FL 32403-5323.
BothAttacker andDefender Analysis
Guam Power Authority’s transmission system(115-13.8 kV):
~100 buses~50 HV lines~50 transformers10s of substations 10s of generating units:
>550 MW
21
![Page 50: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Case Study: Hawaii
Reference: Salmerón, J., Alderson, D., and Brown, G., 2018, Resilience Report: Analysis of Hawaiian Electric Power Grid to Physical Attack (U), NPS Technical Report NPS-OR-18-001R, February. Restricted distribution (PCII).
Prepared for: Department of Homeland Security, Infrastructure Protection Division.
Attacker, Defender,&SpareParts Analysis
• 10s buses• ~100 high-voltage AC
transmission lines• no DC lines• ~100 transformers• 10s generating units: total
gen. capacity of ~2,500 MW• Total load: ~1,200 MW
• Can a small number of coordinated attacks inflict significant damage for which repair would require considerable reconstitution time? What is the best means of hardening against such attacks?
• How can a limited stockpile of medium- and high-voltage spare transformers contribute most to mitigating vulnerability, i.e., to “increasing system resilience.”
22
![Page 51: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
CriticalInfrastructureSystems:NPShasauniqueperspectiveandcapability
GoalsForThisSession• 10keyideasforhowtoassessandimproveoperationalresilienceofcriticalinfrastructures
• OngoingworkinapplyingtheseideastotheUSVI
• Wehavebeenstudyingcriticalinfrastructurefordecades.
• Welookatourowndomesticinfrastructurethroughtheeyesofintelligentadversaries.
• Wehaveconductedover150“redteamanalyses”toplanattacksonourowninfrastructure(anddeterminehowtomounteffectivehardeninganddefensiveefforts)
5
![Page 52: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
Ourresearchispartofabroaderteameffort
![Page 53: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
OurworkintheUSVI:severalrelatedresearchefforts
Effort1 - Modelingandanalysisofinterdependentcriticalinfrastructuresystems
– Energy(emphasisonelectricpower)– Water(emphasisonpotablestorageanddistribution)– Transportation– Telecommunications
Effort2 - SupportfordevelopmentofanewHazardMitigationandResiliencePlan
– inpartnershipwithUVI/VITEMA
Effort3 - Capacitybuilding&workforcedevelopmentprogram– inpartnershipwithUVI
53
![Page 54: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
27Feb2018 ProjectStart(fundsavailable)21Mar remoteparticipationinUSVIEnergyRoundtable26-30Mar 1st NPSsitevisittoSTX,STT11-15Jun 2nd NPSsitevisittoSTX,STT14-15Jun UVI/VITEMAHazardMitigationWorkshop21Sep MSThesisbyLCDRBrendanBunn20Oct Technicalreport(finaldraft)22-26Oct 3rd NPSsitevisittoSTX,STJ,STT
• BunnBB,2018,“AnOperationalModelofInterdependentWaterandPowerDistributionInfrastructureSystems,”M.S.ThesisinOperationsResearch,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,CA,September2018.
• AldersonDL,BunnBB,EisenbergDA,HowardAH,NussbaumDE,TempletonJC,“InterdependentInfrastructureResilienceintheU.S.VirginIslands:PreliminaryAssessment,”NPSTechnicalReport,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,CA,October2018(forthcoming).
OurworkintheUSVI:severalrelatedresearchefforts
![Page 55: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55
228proposedinitiativesacrossavarietyofsectors:• ClimateAnalysis(5)• Energy(17)• PrivateSectorComms (14)• PublicSectorComms (11)• Transportation(24)• Water(11)• SolidWaste andWastewater(26)• HousingandBuildings(11)• Health(21)• VulnerablePopulations(12)• Education(20)• Economy(9)• Non-profit,Philanthropy,and
VoluntaryOrganizations(6)• GovernmentResponse(41)
Lotsofproposedchanges!
OpenQuestions:
• Howtoassesstheimpactofthesechanges(good/bad)?
• Howtoprioritize?
https://www.usvihurricanetaskforce.org/
![Page 56: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
OurworkintheUSVI:severalrelatedresearchefforts
KeyConcept:TheNeedforanOperationalViewofResilience
ReportContributions:1. Explainingthestructure,function,andtensionsassociatedwithcritical
infrastructurethatwerechronicproblemspriortothehurricanes.2. Documentinghurricaneresponse,recovery,andmitigationactivitiesfor
theseinfrastructuresystemsafterthehurricanes.3. Discussingthesechangesinthecontextofpotentialbarrierstoresilience.
56
AldersonDL,BunnBB,EisenbergDA,HowardAH,NussbaumDE,TempletonJC,“InterdependentInfrastructureResilienceintheU.S.VirginIslands:PreliminaryAssessment,”NPSTechnicalReport,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,CA,October2018(forthcoming).
![Page 57: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
WefaceseveralbarrierstoresilienceBarrier1:Wedon’tfullyunderstandhowvulnerableweare.• owners,operators,orcommunitieswhomanageinfrastructureoftendo
nothavecompleteknowledgeabouttheirvulnerabilities
Barrier2:Wedon’tknowhowbesttocreateresilience.• Tradeoffs/tensionsbetweendifferentmechanismstoachieveresilience• Prioritizationisdifficult
Barrier3:Wedon’thaveincentivestocreateresilience.• Hardtoinvestinmitigatingsomethingthathasneverhappened• Moralhazard:disincentivesforinvestment
Barrier4:Wedon’tknowhowtogovernforresilience.• Rules/regulationsworkagainstimplementationofdesiredchanges• mismatchbetweeninfrastructuregovernanceandinfrastructureoperation
57
Reference:AldersonDL,BunnBB,EisenbergDA,HowardAH,NussbaumDE,TempletonJC,“InterdependentInfrastructureResilienceintheU.S.VirginIslands:PreliminaryAssessment,”NPSTechnicalReport,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,CA,October2018(forthcoming).
![Page 58: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
OurworkintheUSVI:severalrelatedresearchefforts
Effort1 - Modelingandanalysisofinterdependentcriticalinfrastructuresystems
– Energy(emphasisonelectricpower)– Water(emphasisonpotablestorageanddistribution)– Transportation– Telecommunications
58
![Page 59: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
59
![Page 60: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60
![Page 61: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Power– WaterInterdependencies
61
![Page 62: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
![Page 63: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63
a morerealistic(USVI)waterdistributionsystem
![Page 64: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
64
IEEE13-buselectricitydistributionnetwork
![Page 65: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
65
BunnBB,2018,“AnOperationalModelofInterdependentWaterandPowerDistributionInfrastructureSystems,”M.S.ThesisinOperationsResearch,NavalPostgraduateSchool,Monterey,CA,September2018.
![Page 66: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
66
Green CayProsperity
Hams Bluff
Sandy Point
Cramer Park
Hannahs Rest
Frederiksted
Christiansted
State Hwy 66
State Hwy 78
Southside Rd
Southshore Rd
Rte-68
North Shore Rd
Rte-622
Rte-66
State Hw
y 669
State Hw
y 75
Carlton Rd
State Hwy 64
Rte-624
State Hw
y 65 Dirth R
d
State H
wy 7
65
River Est
Hogensborg Est
Libanon Hill Est
Hams Bay Est
1st St S
:
0.85
Miles
St. Croix MapFeeder/Sector
August 2014
LEGEND
Device TypeRecloser
Open
Closed
Capacitor
FEMA_SectorsSTX, 1
STX, 10
STX, 2
STX, 3
STX, 4
STX, 4A
STX, 5
STX, 6
STX, 7
STX, 7A
STX, 8
STX, 9 Northside Rd
Rte-74
Rte-70
King St
Hill St
East S
t
Queen S
t
State Hwy 752
Fisher S
t
Prince St
Rte-752
West St
State Hwy 811
Strand S
t
State H
wy 708
Compa
ny St
Market St
Beeston Hill Est
New St
King Cross St
State H
wy 703
Queen Cross StChurch St
Hospital St
Rte-83
Watergu
t St
Richmond Est
Fangselet Est
Grange Est
Sobo
etke
r Ln
Little
Prin
cess
e Hi
ll Rd
Little Princesse Est
Contentment Est
Bulows M
inde Est
Hafensight Est
Orange Grove Est
Peters Farm R
dCon
tent
men
t Rd
Herman Hill Est
Little
Hospita
l St
North St
Bellvue Est
Golden Rock Est
Consti
tution H
ill Est
Sion Farm Est
Frie
dens
thal
Est
Colony Cv
Lobster S
t
Mill Harbour Condos
Sugar
Beach
Res
ort
Little Princess Est
Lagrande Princesse Est
Club S
t Croi
x
Harbor View Apartments
Carib V
illas
Herm
an Hill E
st
Fangselet Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
t
Herman Hill Est
Lagrande Princesse Est
West St
Consti
tution
Hill
Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
t
Constitutio
n Hill Est
Little Princesse Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
tLagrande Princesse Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
t
Bellvue Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
t
Golden Rock Est
Lagrande Princesse Est
Constitutio
n Hill Est
Orange Grove Est
Richmond EstOrange G
rove E
st
Herman Hill Est
Herman Hill Est
Gra
nge
Est
Fangselet Est
Little Princess Est
Little Princess Est
Her
man
Hill
Est
Herm
an Hill Est
Little Princess Est
Golden
Roc
k Est
Constitution H
ill Est
Orange Grove Est
Lagr
ande
Prin
cess
e Es
t
C H R I S T I A N S T E D H A R B O RC H R I S T I A N S T E D H A R B O R
Prin
ce St
Dr Eller S
tN
ew S
tTH
E OV
AL
Smith
field Est
FR
ED
ER
I CK
ST
ED
FR
ED
ER
I CK
ST
ED
Q U E E N M A R Y H W Y
Q U E E N M A R Y H W Y
11
22
33
44
4A4A
55
66
777A7A
8899
Feeder 8
Feeder LegendFeeder 01, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 02, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 03, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 04, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 05, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 06, Three Phase, 7.96743011474609
Feeder 09, Three Phase, 14.3999996185303
Feeder 10, Three Phase, 14.3999996185303
Ongoingwork:St.Croixelectric+water
![Page 67: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
OurworkintheUSVI:severalrelatedresearchefforts
Effort1 - Modelingandanalysisofinterdependentcriticalinfrastructuresystems
– Energy(emphasisonelectricpower)– Water(emphasisonpotablestorageanddistribution)– Transportation– Telecommunications
Effort2 - SupportfordevelopmentofanewHazardMitigationandResiliencePlan
– inpartnershipwithUVI/VITEMA
Effort3 - Capacitybuilding&workforcedevelopmentprogram– inpartnershipwithUVI
67
![Page 68: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
ContactInformation
• Dr.DavidAldersonDirector,CenterforInfrastructureDefenseNavalPostgraduateSchool831-656-1814,[email protected]://faculty.nps.edu/dlalders
• NPSCenterforInfrastructureDefensehttp://www.nps.edu/cid
![Page 69: Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in ......Operational Resilience Analysis and Capacity Building in the US Virgin Islands David L.Alderson, PhD Associate Professor,](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013022/5f75f90ffcbe316e31674065/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
ReferencesandAcknowledgments• Alderson,D.L.,Brown,G.,Carlyle,W.M.,andWood,R.K.,2017,"Assessingand
ImprovingtheOperationalResilienceofaLargeHighwayInfrastructureSystemtoWorst-CaseLosses," TransportationScience,doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2017.0749.
• Alderson,D.L.,Brown,G.,andCarlyle,W.M.,2015,“OperationalModelsofInfrastructureResilience,” RiskAnalysis35(4):562-586(receivedAwardforBestPaperof2015inRiskAnalysis).
• Alderson,D.L.,G.G.Brown,W.M.Carlyle.2014.“AssessingandImprovingOperationalResilienceofCriticalInfrastructuresandOtherSystems.”A.Newman,J.Leung,eds.,TutorialsinOperationsResearch:BridgingDataandDecision.InstituteforOperationsResearchandManagementScience,Hanover,MD,180-215.
• Alderson,D.L.,G.G.Brown,W.M.Carlyle,L.A.Cox.2013.“Sometimesthereisno‘mostvital’arc:assessingandimprovingtheoperationalresilienceofsystems.”MilitaryOperationsResearch18(1)21-37.
• Brown,G.,Carlyle,M.,Salmerón,J.andWood,K.,2006,“DefendingCriticalInfrastructure,” Interfaces,36,pp.530-544.
ThisresearchwassupportedbytheOfficeofNavalResearch,theAirForceOfficeofScientificResearch,andtheDefenseThreatReductionAgency. 19