Operational Dst from real-time data streams and forecast ......Solar irradiances Solar...

W . K . T O B I S K A , D . K N I P P , D . B O U W E R , R . S H E L L E Y , J . B A I L E Y , B . B U R K E , P . H A G A N , D . O D S T R C I L , J . L O V E , J .

G A N N O N , P . F R I B E R G , V . E C C L E S , B . S C H U N K , D . I N T R I L I G A T O R , M . H E S S E , M . K U Z N E T S O V A , R . M O R R I S , R .

Q U I N N , S . O ’ M A L L E Y , A N D B . B O W M A N

Operational Dst from real-time data streams and forecast

algorithms

Anemomilos SET

Geomagnetic Space Weather Affects Technology

o  Satellite drag o  Power grid GIC

o  Aviation radiation o  GPS position accuracy

o  Communication outages o  Satellite surface charging

5/3/12

OPERATIONAL DST

Turning Measurements into Useful Products

  Real-time Dst: operational data is now being produced by several institutions

  Forecast Dst: operational algorithms (prime/stream A and redundant/stream B) now being tested

  Distributed Network: Real-time and forecast Dst is collected/produced/delivered via a distributed network to provide end-user content (a supply chain)

  Satellite Drag End Product: Dst is an input into JB2008 thermospheric density model used for operational satellite drag calculations

5/3/12 http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~maps/ SWW

OPERATIONAL DST

JB2008 – operational densities Solar irradiances Solar wind/magnetosphere

geomagnetic ring current index for satellite drag thermosphere densities

photospheric, chromospheric, coronal solar indices for satellite

drag thermosphere densities


OPERATIONAL DST

http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~maps/ SWW 5/3/12

Operational Dst goals

OPERATIONAL DST

USGS •  uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, KAK) •  produces 1-minute Dst

SEC •  uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, GUA) •  produces 1-hour Dst

Real-time operational Dst


OPERATIONAL DST

Kyoto •  uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, KAK) •  produces 1-hour Dst

AER & SET DMSP •  uses SSM data from 2-4 DMSP satellites •  produces 1-hour Dst



http://www.aer.com/Dst

OPERATIONAL DST

CCMC •  uses SWMF and Fok Ring Current •  produces 1-minute Dst



Other sources •  Rice, UCB, Berkeley, … •  produce 1-hour Dst

OPERATIONAL DST



OPERATIONAL DST

ENLIL/Cone/WSA o  72-hour forecast of hourly Dst

Carmel Research Center o  1–5 hour forecast of Dst

Dst operational forecasting – Stream A


Actual Dst

Probable Dst

Lower bound

Upper bound

OPERATIONAL DST


ENLIL/Cone/WSA

OPERATIONAL DST


ENLIL/Rope/WSA

OPERATIONAL DST

Anemomilos o  6-day forecast of hourly Dst o  data-driven deterministic algorithm o  uses 3 solar observables

Dst operational forecasting – Stream B


OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos 3 observables o  ejecta quantity o  flare location o  ejecta velocity

Background o  ejecta (particles) continually shed from flares o  larger ones are CMEs o  evidence in coronagraph images

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos Location of ejecta o  individual flare brightness centroid from SAM

Quantity of ejecta o  individual flare magnitude Xhf proxy

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos Proxies for velocity? o  Re-analysis of ongoing events in real-time o  rate change of brightness of flares during the rise to peak

Velocity of ejecta o  post-analysis time-of-flight analysis in 2001 & 2005 o  NO DIRECT OBSERVABLES TODAY

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos Relationship between Dst event size, Xhf, and disk longitude

Rate change of flare brightness proxy o  GOES XRS & SDO EVE ESP

No events No events

Small events

Small events

Medium & Large events

OPERATIONAL DST


2001

2005

Mean value ratio of forecast to issued 1-σ ratio of forecast to issued

OPERATIONAL DST

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz2qe6MIkwo 5/3/12 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz2qe6MIkwo

Operational Dst from real-time data streams and forecast ......Solar irradiances Solar...

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