Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach

Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight

Method: a Corporate Approach

Pierre Memheld

Senior Advisor

Inside.Co, France

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Scientific Track

Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach

Abstract

The corporate intelligence field does not have the same characteristics, or the same stakes,

than the political or the military intelligence one. But rightly, its characteristics allow to us

tactical analysis to forecast what would happen. Competitors, companies, have known

technologies, capacities, finances, resources and pre-defined markets. In these conditions,

they have a limited number of “options”. “Operational decision elaboration method” uses

tactical intelligence to determine what an “adversary” is able to do when confronted to

another “party”: what are its equipments, troops, intentions, organizational and operational

behaviors. Thus, a military strategist has constraints, imperatives, objectives, limited means

and variables that will create an uncertainty for the fulfillment of the mission. This is where

intelligence plays a role. The article would stress how this method allow to forecast

companies decisions, as their variables and options are less diversified than in the military

field. This method would not allow to forecast precisely every decision but limit the number

of factors to monitor: the consequence is a better ability to orientate corporate intelligence

means, themselves more limited than in the military field. In this case, analysis takes an even

more important place.

Key topics

http://www.insideco.net/

https://fr.linkedin.com/in/pmemheld/de

http://conference.competitive-intelligence.com/vortraege/vortrag37.shtml

competitive intelligence methods origin, use, and limits in a specific industrial sector operational decision elaboration method and planning process to anticipate evolutions complex competitive intelligence analysis and constraints to use the method/process

Speaker profile

Pierre Memheld: Compliance & Due Diligence Advisor at InsideCo, speaker at the

International Relations School - University of Strasbourg (Institut de Traducteurs,

d'Interprètes et de Relations Internationales), MBA from ESSEC. Pierre has more than 15

years of experience in market & competitive intelligence in utility, energy, transport or

aerospace industries in Europe, India and Middle East.

OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ELABORATION METHOD AS A

FORESIGHT METHOD: AFORESIGHT METHOD: A CORPORATE APPROACH

7th International CompetitiveIntelligence Conference 2015

Anticipate our “enemies” / competitors moves

25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 2

Confrontation of means and patterns

“Predicition is very difficult, especially about h f ”the future”Niels Bohr

I. ODEM PresentationII. Competitive IntelligenceII. Competitive IntelligenceIII. Corporate DoctrinesIV. Early WarningV AssessmentsV. Assessments


I. ODEM PRESENTATION


I. ODEM Presentation

• The Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield

Enemy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, Equipment, IntentionTerrain: Obstacles, Avenue of Approach, Key points, Observations, Cover, pp , y p , ,Weather: Temperatures, Humidity, Wind, Precipiation, Sunrise, Sunset, MoonFriendy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, EquipmentNon Enemy Forces: Population, NGO, Hospital, Administration, Key Leaders


Mission: Who, What, When, Where, With Who, Why, Later


• Intelligence & Environment



• Confrontation of “courses of action”



DE QUOI S’AGIT‐QUOI? La lettre de la mission. Quels effets dois‐je

Orientation initiale

ANALYSE SYNTHESEPHASE 1

DEVELOPPEMENTPHASE 2

PHASE PREALABLEMise en ambiance

COMMENT? DéveloppementDE QUOI S AGIT

IL? Contexte généralQuel est le style général de mon action ? Les facteurs

Conclusions partielles→ Impératifs→ Reformulation

mission→ Effet majeur 1°POURQUOI? L’esprit de la

mission. Quels effets dois je réaliser? Quelles sont les composantes de la mission (≅tâches)? Quelles sont les contraintes?

Développement modes d’action amis

Analyse fonctionnelle des MA

COMPARAISON DES MA (critères) →avantages &

é d déLes facteurs essentiels immédiatement perceptibles (mission, contraintes, terrain, délais, RAPFOR)?

approchePOURQUOI? L esprit de la mission. Quelle place prend ma mission dans la manœuvre du chef? Quel est l’effet majeur du chef

MODE D’ACTION RETENU

inconvénients Réunion de décision

délais, RAPFOR)? En quoi cela sort‐il évidemment de la norme?

EFFET MAJEUR

INTENTIONEffet majeur & idée

d

Conclusions partielles terrain/délais : rythme & tempo, élongations, front/profondeur, etc. Terrain clé

OÙ? Analyse du terrain physique et humain

QUAND? Analyse des délais

Réunion de synthèseOrientation initiale?

RETENU

Conception ou ordre

de manœuvreConditions d’exécution

QUAND? Analyse des délais d’exécution de la mission

Conclusions partielles RAPFOR quantitatifs

AVEC QUOI ? Forces amiesAdaptation de mes unités aux conditions de la mission? Quelles

ité t é t ll

CONFRONTATION DES MA & ME →

Ebauche l d

ordre d’opération

et qualitatifsCentres de gravité ami & ennemiCapacités, besoins & vulnérabilités critiques

CONTRE QUOI ? Forces adversesQuel est mon ennemi? Quel sont sa

unités peuvent exécuter quelles tâches?

COMMENT? Développement modes d’action ennemisFace à mon action, dans le but de

risques & opportunités


plan de manœuvre

critiquesmission, son objectif immédiat et ultérieur? Quel devrait être son dispositif de départ?

Face à mon action, dans le but de remplir sa mission, l’eni pourrait soit…, soit…

II. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE


II. Competitive Intelligence

• Intelligence CycleCustomerProduction

A tA l AssessmentAnalyze

PlanExploit


Collect


• Global Battlefield



• Charts & Networks



• PEST‐EL



• Value Chain Analysis



• Benchmarking



• Analysis of Competing Hypothesis


III. CORPORATE DOCTRINES


III. Corporate Doctrines

• Markets Structures



• Industries Patterns



• Companies Behaviors



• Crowd Sourcing / Communication Obligation



• Human Ressources Standardization



• Analysis Methods Standardization


IV. EARLY WARNING


IV. Early Warning

• Hypothesis to Indicatorsl f f di

consumer surveys

t t k ti

General Info Req --- > Specific Reqs --- > Indicators

Key Questionproduct creation

test marketing

prod. line changes

t t

y Qmarket research

product design

promotionnew contracts

new promotional offersnew products

l h

advertising

product promotion

Incr’d plant capacity Equipment buys

Specific equipment 2

Specific equipment 1launch

New hiresSkill set 1

Skill set 2Production

Tech


Financing

IV. Early Warning

• Intelligence to Plan

Explore DevelopStrategy

Test Plans Implement & EvaluateStrategy & Evaluate

Key Force Analysis

Scenario Development

Influence Planning

Early Warning& Indicator

Test Plans &Assumptions

War Game or Competitive

Align for Rapid Execution

Monitor Indicators &Development

Environment & Key Leader

& Indicator Trees

Competitor& Technical

CompetitiveRole Play

Tactical & Event Intelligence

Probability/ImpactAnalysis

Indicators & Adjust Plans

Intelligence intelligenceg

Action/Contingency Planning


Define Elements Build the Plan Test the Plan Implement the PlanWith the authorization of the Bennion Group

IV. Early Warning

• The Over‐all ProcessPhrase key business issues as questions

Create supporting questions for each key issue

Decompose to “observables” (on/off; thresholds)

Build an indicator tree

Plan intelligence collection – ID observables’sources, and channels

to tap each source


to tap each sourceWith the authorization of the Bennion Group

IV. Early Warning

• War Rooms / Games


V. ASSESSMENTS


V. Assessments

Is “surprise” due to an absence of “indicators” or a lack of monitoring/analysis?lack of monitoring/analysis?

Decisions Informations


V. AssessmentsScenario AnalysisStrategic Planning

ACHACHDecision Profiling

Text MiningMappingSNA

DecisionBrainstormingStrategic Simulation

SNADistribution

ContextConception

Risks MappingIndustries Paterns

Environment

Competitors

BenchmarkingTrend AnalysisPEST EL

Organizational BehaviorValue Chain Analysis


PEST‐ELPatents, Publications

Financial AnalysisSWOT

V. Assessments

• Intelligence Integration & Sharing


V. Assessments

• From intelligence to decisionMarke

tEnvironment

Contraints Decision

Obj ti C tiObjectives

Competitors Analyze Analyze

Context Means Plans RETEX

Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution


Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution

Conclusion


Final Quote

“Your task is not to foresee the ffuture, but to enable it.”Antoine de Saint Exupéry


Questions & Answers

Pierre Memheld – Senior Advisor – [email protected]


Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach

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