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Transform to the power of digital

Open & Online EducationImpactanalyse

19 October 2013

Timo Kos (TU Delft)

Open & Online Education (O2E)Impact & scenario’s voor HO NL

19 October 2013

Timo Kos

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0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenario’s

4. Discussion

Content

Recent developments

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Hype or …?

“There is a tsunami coming. I can't tell you exactly how it’s going to break, but my goal is to try to surf it, not to just stand there.”Wall Street Journal, ‘Changing the

Economics of Education. John Hennessy and Salman Khan on how technology can make the college numbers add up’ (june, 2012)

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0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenario’s

4. Discussion

Content

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Open Online Education (O2E): four related and interacting developments

Open Distance Learning (ODL): dating back to the early 20th and 18 & 19th centuryNow dominated  by the Open Universities

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Online Education (OE): growing market & marketshare

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‘Change Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States’ (2013)

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Online Education (OE): popular programs & courses

Table from ‘Study of UK online learning final report’, University of Oxford, 2010

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Online education (OE): student motives

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‘Online College Students 2012’, The Learning House and Aslanian Market Research

Open Course Ware (OCW): Consortium with over 300 members

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OpenCourseWare (OCW)

“a free and open educational resource for faculty, students, and self-learners throughout the world.”

Open Content

Open Educational Resources

OCW

Open Educational Resources (OER): Definitions

Open Educational Resources (OER)‘materials offered freely and openly to use and adapt for teaching, learning, development and research’

Open Content'freely available for modification, use and redistribution’

Open Educational Resources: growth of the number of open courses

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MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (I)A. Early pioneers (2007/2008) of connectivism & social learning (now cMOOC)

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David Wiley (Brigham Young University)

George Siemens (Athabasca University)

Stephen Downes (National Research CouncelCanada)

Proponents of connectivism use the web to explore the possibilities of open & social (‘networked’) learning

MOOC = Massive Open Online Courses (II)B. Pioneers (2011‐2012) of free massive open online classes (now xMOOCs)

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Salman Khan

Prof. Peter Norvig & Prof. Sebastian Thrun(Stanford)

Prof Andrew Nge & Prof. Daphne Koller(Stanford)

Prof. Anant Agarwal(MIT)

These proponents use the web to provide traditionally structured online courses for free and aim to ‘disrupt higher education and open it up to the masses’.

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xMOOC platforms: Technology start‐ups building new digital distribution channels for ‘open’ online education...

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Monetization Strategies of MOOC platform providers

1. Share of gross revenue between platform provider (Coursera) and the university offering courses through the platform (license model)

2. Administrative fees for certification on proctored exam locations (e.g. MIT and Udacity in partnership with Pearson VUE)

3. Recruitment fee’s from corporations and or universities for talented students (Udacity, Coursera)

4. A premium version of the platform/courses for corporations comparable to so called ‘freemium’ and ‘premium’payment models of other internet services (Coursera)

5. Advertisement and sponsorships on the website (Coursera)

6. Tuition  fee’s or fee’s for additional services to students (e.g. tutoring or coaching) (Coursera/Antioch University, edX/UT System)

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Example: Georgia Institute of Technology & Udacity

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• Accredited Massive Online Master Degree Program• Price: $ 6700,- for complete Msc in stead of $ 40.000 per year• Number of students: 10.000 in stead of 300 per year• Number of faculty extra: 8 at Georgia Tech (for content)• Revenu model: 60% for Georgia Tech, 40% for Udactity

xMOOC student patterns

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DelftX Courses

Spring 2014:

– Introduction to Aerospace Engineering

– Next Generation Infrastructures

50,000

25,000

DelftX: example

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United States

India

Brazil

Spain

Nigeria

United Kingdom

Colombia

Canada

Netherlands Mexico

Water

United States

IndiaBrazil

Spain

Pakistan

United Kingdom

Colombia

Nigeria

NetherlandsMexico

Solar

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‘MOOC’s and implications for Higher Education. A Whitepaper’, (JISC, CETIS; March 2013). Relaties tussen ODL, OE, OER/OCW & MOOC’s. Figuur door de auteurs van deze verkenning aangevuld met relatie tussen MIT OCW, Khanacademy en de 1e Stanford MOOC

Evolution of O2E: relations between ODL, OE, OCW/OER & MOOCs

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0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenario’s

4. Discussion

Content

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Different perspectives: Hype Cycle

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The theory of ʺdisruptive innovationʺ

… and Christensens’s disruptive innovation perspective...

„A process by which a product or service

takes root initially in simple applications

at the bottom of a market and then

relentlessly moves ‘up market’,

eventually displacing established

competitors”

‒ Professor Clayton M. Christensen, 

Harvard Business School

Author of Disrupting Class (2008) and The Innovative University (2011)

Low ranked(under) graduatedegree programs

High ranked (under) graduate degreeprograms

Top ranked (under) graduatedegree programs

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0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenario’s

4. Discussion

Content

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Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Outlook Higher Education Institutions USA, US Public Finance, Sept 2012

Unbundling?

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Axis of scenario model

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0. Introduction

1. State of play

2. Impact analysis

3. Scenario’s

4. Discussion

Content

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Dilemma’s

1. Global vs Local

2. Initial vs post‐initial

3. Public values vs Market values

4. Open vs Closed

5. Institutional vs individual

6. ….

Nyenrode Business University

DuisenbergSchool of Finance

Universidad Europea de Madrid

MITDelft University of 

Technology

StanfordErasmus University 

Rotterdam

When viewed as a disruptive innovation, an early adoption strategy for massive online education differs per market‐segment

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Phoenix University

Kaplan University

NCOI

Amsterdam University of Applied Science

Open University

Saxion University of Applied Science

LEVERAGE GLOBAL

REPUTATION

ADD. PROFNETWORKSERVICES

LOCALLYAPPLIED

SCIENCES

LOW PRICE FIGHT

MARKET