Biofuels and Food production a systemic approach to study the relations and

implications in complex agriculture markets

Workshop on Biofuels and Food Security Interactions

Opportunities and weakness of biofuel/bioenergy drivers

I + D + i

Energy and food demand

evolution

• Population growth

• GDP evolution

• Urbanization

• Demand control

Energy security

• Import dependency• Foreign currency needs• Natural resource

Environment

• Pollution

• Climate change

• Fragile ecosystems

Fosile fuel substitutio

n alternative

s

• Conventional and non

conventional fosile fuels• Non conventional sources

WE MUST ALWAYS TAKE IN MIND HOW WE USE ENERGY IN ALL FORMS WITH A SYSTEMIC APPROACH

WERE ARE WE HEADING AS MODERN SOCIETIES IN THE USE OF ENERGY AND FOOD RESOURCESS

Food fuel studies must consider all the components of bioenergy chain

Feedstock's

Conversión process

Energy carriers (solids,

liquids y gases)

Equipment for biofuels

use

Final products (electric,

mechanic, heat use).

Crop type C3/C4

Soil use

Biofuels

Coproducts

National regulations

International regulations

MarketsTransport & logistics

Food demand & diet patterns

New technologies

Use of agricultural product dynamics

Conventional energy

Agrochemical supplies

Climate and crop health

COMPLEX MULTIPLE

INTERACTIONS UNKNOWN IN

MARKETS HISTORY

ww

w. o

e ko

.de

Bioproducts (bioplastics,

biomolecules, biophármaco etc.)

Biomaterials (construction,

paper etc.)Human food

Pets food

Fodder and animal food

Biofuels - Bioenergy

- MA

RK

ET

VALU

E +

+

- VOLU

MEN

OF PR

OD

UC

TION

++

BIOMASS ADDED VALUE

ADDED VALUE OF THE TRANSFORMING PROCESS

Instalation through media

Sustainability public perception & awareness installation in society and its consequences

Economic actors NGO

“SCIENTIFIC”

SUPPORT

$$

Instalation through media

PUBLICPERCEPTIO

NCHANGE

PoliticianAnswer

Sustainability public perception & awareness installation in society and its

consequences

Economic actors NGO

“SCIENTIFIC”

SUPPORT

$$

Instalación del tema en los medios

CAMBIO PERCEPCION PUBLICA

Respuesta política

Regulation and control

departmentsREQUIREMEN

TS

Sustainability public perception & awareness installation in society and its

consequences

Economic actors NGO

“SCIENCE”SUPPORT

$$

Instalation through media

PUBLICPERCEPTIO

NCHANGE

PoliticianAnswer

Regulation and control

departmentsREQUIREMEN

TS

Search for scientific

support of new

measuresUniversitie

sResearch Institutes

Sustainability public perception & awareness installation in society and its

consequences

Economic actors NGO

“SCIENTIFIC”

SUPPORT

$$

Installed paradigms Direct relation between production

capacity and food security Food competence Advantages of non food crops (II

generation) n Superior costs than conventional fuels Direct relation between crop use and

biofuel production Increase crop production altering

forest areas Relative advantages on GHG savings Neutral or low Energy balances

Define the product :Principle characteristics of biofuels large scale production

•Derive from a well established transforming chains (food, fiber, feed etc.)

•Produced from a coproducts of flexcrop production

•Rely on logistics and size economy savings already established.

•Produces multiple impacts in established markets generating new products, price movements, replacements, food feed patterns etc.

•Much affected by policy and administrative changes inside and outside country boundaries

•The industry were feedstock transformation occurs has great plasticity to produce or not the biofuels according to prices profit etc.

Argentina is the principal provider of flour,protein feed, oil and biodiesel based on soybeans of the world

Produces enough Food to feed more tan 400 million people with a population of 40.

Argentina will continue incrementing its participation based on itshigh tech and competitive agricultura and agroindustrial complex

Fuente: USDA-Long Term Projections, Febrero 2011

El complejo sojero Argentino ARGENTINA SITUATION IN THIS CONTEXT

Aspectos Económicos

BIODIESEL INDUSTRY ARGENTINA

Installed capacity 1500 million dollars investment

?????????

The fall in biodiesel production is producing a “comodizations” of exports since we have to sell higher volumes in an inelastic market.

SUSTEINABILITY OF THE VALUE CHAIN

Less foreing income less tax income less investment projects less Jobs and added value.

Installed bioethanol capacity sugar cane plus corn

CAPACIDAD DE PRODUCCIÓN m3/día m3/año

BIOENERGIA LA CORONA 120 39.600

ALCONOA -TABACAL- 300 99.000

COMPAÑIA BIOENERGETICA LA FLORIDA 400 132.000

COMPAÑIA BIOENERGIA SANTA ROSA 120 39.600

BIO SAN ISIDRO 50 16.500

BIOTRINIDAD 160 52.800

RIO GRANDE ENERGIA 90 29.700

BIO LEDESMA 300 99.000

ENERGIAS ECOLOGICAS DE TUCUMAN -GRUPO COLOMBRES- 100 33.000

VICENTÍN 180 60.000

BIO IV 250 82.500

PROMAIZ S.A. 440 145.000

ACABIO 440 145.000

DIASER 250 82.500

SUBTOTAL 3.200 1.056.200

BIOENERGIA LA CORONA4% AL-

CONOA -TABACAL-

9%

COM-PAÑIA BIOEN-

ERGETICA LA FLOR-

IDA13%

COM-PAÑIA BIOENERGIA SANTA ROSA

4%

BIO SAN ISIDRO

2%

BIOTRINIDAD5%RIO

GRANDE ENERGIA

3%

BIO LEDESMA

9%ENERGIAS ECOLOGICAS DE TUCUMAN -GRUPO COLOMBRES-

3%

VICENTÍN6%

BIO IV8%

ACABIO14%

DIASER8%

PROMAIZ S.A.14%

BIOENERGIA LA CORONAALCONOA -TABACAL-COMPAÑIA BIOENERGETICA LA FLORIDACOMPAÑIA BIOENERGIA SANTA ROSABIO SAN ISIDROBIOTRINIDADRIO GRANDE ENERGIABIO LEDESMAENERGIAS ECOLOGICAS DE TUCUMAN -GRUPO COLOMBRES-VICENTÍNBIO IVACABIODIASERPROMAIZ S.A.

Large plants

Infraestructure demands of the agroindustrial complex

Biofuel industry growth was based on this advantages

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000

18,000,000 20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000 38,000,000

Storage capacity for grains in silo bags

mill

ions

of t

ons

• Trains• Roads• Ports• Storage

capacity• Feed industry

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Argentine Soybean cultivated area with regards to its Biodiesel and oil production

Cultivated area (thousand Ha)Soybean Oil (thousand tons)Biodiesel (thousand tons)

Years

thou

sand

HA

thou

sand

Ton

s

INTERNAL MARKET OPORTUNITY DIFFERENCE BETWEN IMPORTED DIESEL AND NATIONAL BIODIESEL

REGULATION FRAMEWORK

LAW 26093 “Regulation and promotion of sustainable biofuels

production and use”

ARTICLE 7. –MANDATORY BLEND OF 5 % BIODIESEL AND BIOETHANOL IN GASOLINE AND DIESEL SOLD IN ARGENTINA FROM 2010

LAW 26190“National regime for the use of renewable energy for

the production of electric energy”

ARTICLE 2º — 8 % OF THE TOTAL ELECTRICITY MUST BE PROVIDES BY RENEWABLE SOURCES FRO2010

PARTICULARITIES OF A VERY HIGH DEVELOPED AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION

SYSTEM

Intensive application of technology

Farmers knowledge share

History and experience

Presition agriculture

CROP PRODUCTION CHOICE

IS BASED ON COMPARATIVE PROFIT

High tec mature farm machinery technologyDevelopment of high level employment in

rural towns

Diesel emitions (TnCO2) 8.873.055

Biodiesel Min (TnCO2) 3.215.134Mean reduction (TnCO2) 5.657.921

Diesel emitions (TnCO2) 16.912.164 Biodiesel emitions (TnCO2) 7.014.988

Mean reduction (TnCO2)

9.897.175

DOMESTIC MARKET

EXTERNAL MARKET

GLOBAL SAVINGS 2010-2013

15.555.096 TnCO2

New challenges for the agricultural residue use

Carbon balance

Wind and water erosion control

Water cycle

Nutrients cycle and reposition

Edaphoclimatic factors interactions

Models for each agro ecological region29

ARGENTINA

No till technolgy conserves energy water resources and carbon in the soils

MORE THAN 80 % OF THE SURFACE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Residue removal ????

FOOD CONTROVERSY ??1/3 of food is thrown in the world according to

FAO 2011 study

1.300 millones tons per year

United States 346 $/week Germany 500 $/week

Ecuador 31,5 $/weekTchad Africa 1,62 $/week

Peter Metzel amount of food and money spent by a family per week

Indirect impacts weakness and risks

LUC & ILUC EXTERNAL FORCES ACTING OVER THE SYSTEMS

50.0002014

HISTORIC DROUGH

DOMESTIC POLICY

36

http://inta.gob.ar/bioenergia

New books

THANK YOU DISCUSSION………

• Ing.Agr. M.Sc. Jorge A. Hilbert– INTA y UTN– Tel +54 11 4665-0495 0450– Mail hilbert.jorge@inta.gob.ar

–http://inta.gob.ar/bioenergia