OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015
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Transcript of OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015
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OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITYAneel Lakhani
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NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE THIS TALK
MarketingAnalystProduct
Infra ArchNet Eng
Sys AdminNOC Op
Tech Support
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HE ISUSAF Colonel & Military Strategist
John Richard Boyd
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OODAOBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE
ACT
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ECOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY
AFFORDANCES
Empirical PsychologistJames J. Gibson
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A KNOB AFFORDS TWISTING, AND PERHAPS PUSHING, WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING.
AN AFFORDANCE [IS] THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION, AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
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COGNITION GRASPS AFFORDANCES
ACTION UNLOCKS AFFORDANCES
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OODA == COGNITION-ACTION
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OODA : COGNITION-ACTION ::
__ : AFFORDANCE
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HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?
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HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?
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WE BUILD MODELS
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WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS
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WE [TEND TO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS
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WE ORIENT WITH AND TO MODELS
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WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS
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WE MODEL ALL THE THINGS
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FASTER!!![CARGO CULT VERSION]
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OPERATE INSIDE THE [ADVERSARY’S]
TIME SCALE
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1 Adversary 1: OODA
2 Adversary 1: OODA
3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA
4 Adversary 1: OODA^X
Adversary 2: OOD_
Adversary 2: OO__
Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_
Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O
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MOVING FORWARD IN TIME
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PARTS OF THE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL
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OBSERVE & ACT VS
ORIENT & DECIDE
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FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE
Law & Finance ProfessorFrank Portnoy
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DELAYING DECIDE-ACT
OFTEN MEANS COMING OUT
AHEAD
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MAPPING
WONDER, PEACE, WAR BUSINESS CYCLES
Researcher of Strategy & MapmakerSimon Wardley
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MULTIPLE PRACTICES,
CULTURES, AND STAGES OF
EVOLUTION COEXIST
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CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODEL TO BE “INVALID” IS THE PRIMARY MEANS OF
“WINNING”
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TAKING OUR MODELS TOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITING TO BE EXPLOITED (OR
BLOWN UP)
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BLACK SWANS
ANTIFRAGILITYProfessor of Risk Engineering
N. N. Taleb
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BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR
MODELS
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[IMMOVABLE] MODELS CREATE
FRAGILITY
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SCALES OF ABSTRACTION
PROMISE THEORYArchitect of CFEngine
Mark Burgess
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EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE
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SO WHAT?
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THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE
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OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTEDSCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
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ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
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ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS]
SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
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TIME CAN BE REALLOCATED TO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS
SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY
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CAUTION: ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]
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CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES
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CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT
Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change
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CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS
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KNOW THE CONTEXT
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SEEK MODEL INVALIDATION
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ORIENTATION AND DECISIONThrough streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building
meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.
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READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)
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ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS
https://signalfx.com
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IMAGE CREDITS• J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library
• Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind
• N.N. Taleb: NY Times
• Mark Burgess: markburgess.org
• Book cover images from Amazon
• Coffee: me
• Me: not me