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OODA as a Business Operations Management FrameworkA White Paper Adapted from Whiskey and Decisions

What is OODA?A highly adaptive learning cycle characterized by 4 stages:

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act OODA Cycles create experiential knowledge

Knowledge exponentially increases effectiveness through:Improved SkillsImproved predictionsImproved adaptabilitySpeed of decision making

Air Force Colonel John Boyd (1927-1997) first coined the term OODA Loop to describe a high stakes, tactical combat decision-making pattern.

Why This Process?Successful organizations understand that no plan or passes the test of time and unknowns. Great decision makers understand that a plan is useless until it is acted upon. Organizations, like people, learn through repetition.Actions begets outcomes Outcomes generate learning opportunitiesThis process is very intuitive and easy to recallIt is by nature adaptive COL John Boyds Original

Modified for Business Organizations

= PlanCompressed Repetition is Key

Do not focus on perfectionFocus on a solid 75% solution and GOReward action which creates momentum and learningLearning Organizations Recognize Advantages and Opportunities with increased clarity and accuracyAdaptive organizations can seize opportunities when presentedSo.Imagine a 1 year Static Plan Versus Dynamic PlanningOODA:220082009Anticipated Opportunities and Risks =Planned for in OODA 1BCCABOODA:1DAPlannedOpportunities, RisksActed uponEFGActual Opportunities, Risks and UnknownsMissed, Unconsidered,.hastily acted upon, reacted toKnown'sKnownABUnforeseen Risk D Actually affects the Plan far more than C.CF(Missed Opportunity)FFEF Set conditions for success in E and H (Missed Opportunity)ForeseenUnSeenHHRequire a Year to Develop (Missed Opportunity)(Missed Opportunities)KKDDGDKGMyriad of unknowns remain such!Optimize and compress the decision cycle to Move out of the React Zone200820092010201120122013AABCDEFG4:1 OODA Cycle = 4 Times better understanding of the multiple unknowns from earlier cycles. Increases Flexibility and places the company ahead of our competitors in a single loop1234IJKLHMNOPQRSTUVWXZBCDEGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ5 yr VisionYFWhat Conditions and Actions must we create?Build Bridges and Destroy Obstacles!Dynamic Planning : Shapes the Future How do we mitigate risks and obstacles?OODA Loop aligned with Detailed ActivitiesObserveOrientActDecideTrendsPatternsCondition AssessmentThreatsOpportunitiesDefine SuccessOptionsCourses of Action EvaluationSimulate/TestSynthesizeRefineRecommend

CoordinateCommunicateExecuteSustainEnforceMonitorReport

FOCUSED VISIONNote: The Budget is viewed as a resource, a constraint and a metric of success - - not a strategy or a vision.Commitment to a Synchronized Execution of planningand Operations using OODA cycles to measure Operational VelocityWhat are the Brutal Internal Facts - TAT, Quality, Customer Satisfaction, Product, Service, Revenue, Growth, market position How did we get in the current condition (Forensic Intelligence) Environment Starting States and Assumptions to carry forward Futures Analysis (Define the realm of Possible)Visioning (Pinpoint year endstate with Annual Success Markers & Metrics)Identify the Critical Path to success Nested BU Task and Purpose to achieve the critical path states. (Strategic Level Detail with BU SWAGs)Relate, evaluate and synchronize desired affects on peer units, revenue, customer satisfaction, service volume, product development, quality and TAT, growth and market position.Operational Estimates - generate business unit plans to support this strategic vision (task organization of people and resources)Simulation of the critical path.Strategic Decision Brief to CEO ()Operational Planning (Business units conduct the same steps as above but focus on synchronizing their internal plan with internal assetsOperational Back Briefs to CEO (Verification of BU synchronization around the strategic plan)Cycle 1 complete Cycle 2 starts with KPI FEEDBACK!

Success = Commitment and Participation = 80 hoursMeeting 1: 5 hrs Facilitator LeadTargetedAssistancein PreparationMeeting 2: Offsite 8hrsPrep: 8hrsMeeting 3: 4hrs Prep: 4hrsMeeting 4: 4hrsPrep: 4hrsInternal: 80 hrsMeetings 6-10: 1 hour each BU40 hrs prep per BUMeeting 5: 2 hrsPowerPoint title goes here#Strategic Decisions

Tactical Decisions and OperationsBusiness Alignment

1st Strategic OODA5 Year Plan? Clear 5 Yr Vision

Buy-inOperationalCapabilityAssessmentsConceptAnnual MuscleMovesSuitableFeasibleAcceptableStrategicConceptsApprovalDetailedSupportingPlansOperationalPlanningSupportingPlans/ValidatedApprovedDetailedSpecs CompletedDetailedSpecs ApprovedDeconflictOperationalInconsistencyMonitorandAdjust OperationalInconsistency= Task and Purpose2008 PLAN

Jan 31stPreparationEnd MarchStart OODA 1SimulationsOperationalNestingMonitor SeptOCT start 2014 = Decisions by EchelonEnd OCT StartBuild 20141st Strategic OODA Complete ~80 Hours in ? Months = Strategic Concepts to Operational ApprovalPowerPoint title goes here#11Complimentary Cycling in the OODAsStrategic ObservationsBU ObserveSimulationStrategy DecisionStrategic Direction

Strategic ObservationsBU ObserveBU Orient = COA Ideas & EstimatesBU Decisions = Capabilities and LimitationsDecisions = Negotiated AssessmentsStrategic OrientationCOA DevelopmentBU Actionto Reduce ObstaclesBU OrientAdapt to lessonsFrom the SimulationBU Decision onAdjustments Time Spent PlanningInsight Growth and Chance of SuccessX-Team Planning Activities and CyclesHoursLowManyMonthsFacts , AssumptionsTrendsHighOneWeeksLesson - - Record and forge ahead to increase depth of Insight and Increased situational UnderstandingGrowth stunted by indecision and lack of teamwork to forge aheadElse if Relevance & Acceptance Gained - - Insight GrowthValue of Iterative Thought and AgreementPowerPoint title goes here#13-When in doubt, record the assumptions and consciously develop a mechanism to gather intelligence to analyze the assumptions as fact or not as part of the plan. In subsequent panning sessions, these assumptions become contingency plans If you discover an assumption as false and the plan hinges on a discredited assumption - - immediately begin the cycle again.

Value of Iterative Thought and AgreementTime Spent PlanningX-Team Planning Activities and CyclesHoursLowManyMonthsFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalHighOneORG OODA Cycle 1 = 70% chance of success solution at the decision pointWeeks Grow Insight by moving the planning group all the way through the OODA cycle - - Like outcome is a 70% solution!- However, as Time Marches on, The plan must continuously adapt to changing circumstances in the 30% Insight Growth and Chance of SuccessTime and circumstance serve as countervailing forces and degrade chances of success - - Stuff Happens, and the competitor doesnt always do what you want him to doGrowth stunted by indecision and lack of teamwork to forge aheadPowerPoint title goes here#14-When in doubt, record the assumptions and consciously develop a mechanism to gather intelligence to analyze the assumptions as fact or not as part of the plan. In subsequent panning sessions, these assumptions become contingency plans If you discover an assumption as false and the plan hinges on a discredited assumption - - immediately begin the cycle again.

Value of Iterative Thought and AgreementTime Spent PlanningX-Team Planning Activities and CyclesHoursLowManyMonthsFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalHighOneInsight from OODA Cycle 1 passedORG OODA Cycle 1WeeksFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalInsight from OODA Cycle 1 passedOrg Cycle 2Facts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalInsight from OODA Cycle 1 passedFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalInsight from OODA Cycle 1 passedOrg Cycle 3Repeat the cycles to account for the unexpected 30% - ID plan and watch for Branches and sequels to your critical pathInsight Growth and Chance of SuccessGrowth stunted by indecision and lack of teamwork to forge ahead15-When in doubt, record the assumptions and consciously develop a mechanism to gather intelligence to analyze the assumptions as fact or not as part of the plan. In subsequent panning sessions, these assumptions become contingency plans If you discover an assumption as false and the plan hinges on a discredited assumption - - immediately begin the cycle again.

Value of Iterative Thought and AgreementTime Spent PlanningX-Team Planning Activities and CyclesHoursLowManyMonthsFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalHighOneCycle 1-BaseWeeksCompress the cycle as much as possible to increase knowledge and successThe plan is to keep planning- Observe-Orient-Decide and Act to achieve the larger vision while adjusting as necessary to account for the 30% unknown factor.Insight Growth and Chance of SuccessFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalCycle 2 - ContingencyFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateFinal CoordinationPlan ApprovalFacts , AssumptionsTrendsRelevance & AcceptanceValidation & AcceptanceSFA (Suit, Feasible, Accept)Validation & AcceptanceSynchronization ApprovalCurrent State Problem FramingFuture State Problem FramingGeneric OptionsAnalysisCoordinate CriticalPath Actions PlanTest and SimulateCycle 2 - OpportunityCycle 3 - ContingencyPowerPoint title goes here#16-When in doubt, record the assumptions and consciously develop a mechanism to gather intelligence to analyze the assumptions as fact or not as part of the plan. In subsequent panning sessions, these assumptions become contingency plans If you discover an assumption as false and the plan hinges on a discredited assumption - - immediately begin the cycle again.