Only a theory: Why birds fly, why mammals stayed …ffffffff-f77d-1dab...small, and why dinosaurs...
Transcript of Only a theory: Why birds fly, why mammals stayed …ffffffff-f77d-1dab...small, and why dinosaurs...
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Only a theory: Why birds fly, why mammals stayed small, and why dinosaurs became
big and died out
Marcus Clauss Clinic for Zoo Animals, Exotic Pets and Wildlife, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of
Zurich, Switzerland Science and Barbecue Zürich August 2012
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... or how listening to interdisciplinary gossip, riding trains and drawing
pictures can lead to high attention-generating and completely non-
useful hypotheses.
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
Digestive physiology supervisors
Marcus Clauss Jürgen Hummel
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
Digestive physiology supervisors
Digestive physiology PhD students & associates
Marcus Clauss Jürgen Hummel
Julia Fritz Ragna Franz Patrick Steuer
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
(Digestive physiology) supervisors
Digestive physiology PhD students & associates
Marcus Clauss Jürgen Hummel
Julia Fritz Ragna Franz Patrick Steuer
Chris Carbone
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
(Digestive physiology) supervisors
Digestive physiology PhD students & associates
Marcus Clauss Jürgen Hummel
Julia Fritz Ragna Franz Patrick Steuer Dennis Müller Daryl Codron Irina
Nurutdinova
Chris Carbone
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DFG Research Group 533 Sauropod Biology - the Evolution of Gigantism
(Digestive physiology) supervisors
Digestive physiology PhD students & associates
Marcus Clauss Jürgen Hummel
Julia Fritz Ragna Franz Patrick Steuer Dennis Müller Daryl Codron Irina
Nurutdinova
Chris Carbone
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Assumptions
- Niche stratification according to body size (=body mass) - Eggs cannot increase endlessly in size because of
physical constraints on egg shell thickness (stronger shells needed for larger eggs) and diffusion (thicker shells prevent diffusion of oxygen)
- The K-T extinction event affected all animals above a certain body size threshold
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
egg
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
egg
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
egg neonate
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
juvenile
egg neonate
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
adult
juvenile
juvenile
egg neonate
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
adult A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
adult
foetus A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
adult
neonate
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
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Niches of parent and offspring niche space
adult
juvenile
A
A - 1
A - 2
A - 3
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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niche space Niches of parent and offspring
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Resulting hypothesis I
The reproductive mode of dinosaurs (ovipary), with its intrisic limited juvenile start size linked to ontogenetic niche stratification, may have led to a parallel decrease of small dinosaur species with the increase of larger species, because offspring of large species fill the niche space of the smaller species.
A catastrophic event, truncating adult body size, could therefore, in theory, wipe out the whole reproductive dinosaur population.
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In contrast, the reproductive mode of mammals (and also that of many birds due to parental care) does not lead to an ontogenetic niche stratification, but offspring use the parents’ niche.
Thus, with increasing body mass of larger species, niches of smaller species are not usurped by the larger species’ offspring to the same extent.
Die-offs of larger species would not leave niches of smaller life forms empty.
Resulting hypothesis II
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Check species assemblages for distribution patterns (is there a ‘gap’)?
Design deterministic model to test effect of interspecific competition on body mass distribution of mammals and dinosaurs before and after a simulated K-T-event
Work plan
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Check species assemblages for distribution patterns (is there a ‘gap’)?
Design deterministic model to test effect of interspecific competition on body mass distribution of mammals and dinosaurs before and after a simulated K-T-event
Work plan
Daryl Codron
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Species distributions
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Deterministic model
• Populations of different sized species of: Dinosaurs: i1,i2…ik = {2 g to ~131 tons} Mammals: i1,i2…ik = {2 g to ~16 tons}
Each structured by size (log2M increments, j) from neonate-adult
Mneonate = aMadultb bdinosaurs ~0.6
bmammals ~0.9
For each Mi,j, estimate: 1. initial abundance n (allometry) 2. survivorship p (r-selecting or K-selecting) 3. fecundity f (allometry; add fini,k to ni,1)
• Assume: each log2M step = ontogenetic niche shift
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Deterministic model
• Density of each i after competition:
Ni = pi,j ni,j – α(Σ[pi,j nj] – pi,jni,j)
Independent α for D on M and M on D:
Dinosaurs: NDi = Σ[nDi,j – αDD(ΣnDj–nDi,j) - αMD(ΣnMj)]
Mammals: NMi = Σ[nMi,j – αMM(ΣnMj – nMi,j) - αDM(ΣnDj)]
Simulate K-T: kill all individuals >25 kg
Competition-induced mortality (α) occurs amongst all similarly-sized individuals (symmetric)
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Model results - no competition
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06 Dinosaurs
(non-avian) Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.00αMM = 0.00αDM = 0.00αMD = 0.00
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Model results - mild competition-induced mortality
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06 Dinosaurs
(non-avian) Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.1αMM = 0.1αDM = 0.00αMD = 0.00
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Model results - stronger competition
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10 Dinosaurs (non-avian)
Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.15αMM = 0.15αDM = 0.00αMD = 0.00
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Model results - including competition from dinosaurs on mammals
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Dinosaurs (non-avian)
Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.15αMM = 0.15αDM = 0.15αMD = 0.00
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Model results - ... and from mammals on dinosaurs
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20 Dinosaurs
(non-avian) Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.15αMM = 0.15αDM = 0.15αMD = 0.15
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Model results - ... and from mammals on dinosaurs
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20 Dinosaurs
(non-avian) Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.15αMM = 0.15αDM = 0.15αMD = 0.15
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Model results - after K/T, with competition
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12 Dinosaurs (non-avian)
Aves Mammalia
αDD = 0.15αMM = 0.15
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Deterministic model
• Robustness and sensitivity Changes and variability in M effects on:
1. life history strategy 2. reproductive output 3. Madult:Mneonate ratio 4. competition co-efficient (α) 5. symmetry of α 6. abundance
Stochastic parameter estimates (bounded within empirical limits for birds/herpetiles or mammals), 103 iterations
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Model results - variation in neonate scaling, demography, and ecology
pre K-T post K-T
log2Madult (kg)
relative abundance
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.050.100.150.200.25
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.14
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.040.080.120.160.20
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.020.040.060.080.100.12
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.020.040.060.080.10
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.020.040.060.080.100.12
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.050.100.150.200.25
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.020.040.060.080.100.12
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.100.200.300.400.50
-9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170.000.040.080.120.160.20
Dinosaurs (non-avian); Aves; Mammalia
variable adult-neonate mass scaling exponent variable adult-neonate mass scaling exponent
variable initial abundance variable initial abundance
variable abundance-mass scaling exponentvariable abundance-mass scaling exponent
variable fertility (birth rate) variable fertility (birth rate)
variable α variable α
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Conclusions
Size-specific competition influences species diversity - Effects largest amongst species with high intraspecific
niche breadth (e.g. large, oviparous)…
- … favouring large-bodied taxa
Explains paucity of small-bodied dinosaurs - Dominance of large dinosaurs then limited max BM of
other vertebrate groups in Mesozoic…
Extinction event above body mass threshold = remaining species diversity too low for recovery
- … resultant dominance of small taxa amongst mammals further limited small dinosaurs (=aerial niche?)
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