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One attainment gap:
a million stories
1
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“The fact that family background is still such a strong determinant of a child’s outcomes is an affront to a civilised, progressive society”
2
Source: Feinstein et al. 2007.
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A famous cohort study of those born in 1970 showed
that bright children from lower
socio-economic groups quickly lost their initial
advantage…
3
Source: Feinstein. 2003
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Average rank of test scores at 22, 42, 60 & 120 months by SES of parents and early rank position
By age 10, a low SES child with an upper quartile score in cognitive development at
22 months is predicted to have fallen behind their high SES peers with a lower quartile
score.
4Source: Feinstein. 2003
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This pattern looks set to repeat for children in the Millennium Cohort Study,
born in 2000
5
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6
Source: Blanden and Machin. 2007.
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1. Education matters
7
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It matters for individuals…
8
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“Education-related inequalities have an
impact over the life-span, not
just in childhood.”
9
Source: Equality and Human Rights Commission. 2010.
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To start, education and happiness are linked
Degree or PhD A Levels GCSE
% Very Happy
None
Chicken or egg?
10
35 30 28 23
Source: Ipsos Mori. 2008
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The more you learn the more you earn
Over the course of a lifetime, a graduate from a Russell Group university will earn on average £371,000 more than someone
who left school with less than 5 good GCSEs.
11
Source: The Sutton Trust and Boston Consulting Group. 2010.
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Each extra year of education is correlated with wages (almost)
12
Source: Walker and Zhu. 2003.
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Different degrees have different effects on wages
13
Source: Walker and Zhu. 2003.
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NEET(Those not in Education, Employment or Training)
14
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“£35 billion is the cost to the taxpayer for only one generation of NEET. No one can put a value on the human cost.”
15
Source: Audit Commission. 2010.
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17.1% of 16-24 year olds are NEET.
That’s 19.9% of females and 14.3% of males.
5% of ALL 16 year olds are currently NEET.
Non-NEETs
NEET
17.1%
16
Source: Labour Force Survey. 2011.
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28% of young people with no qualifications spent more than 12 months NEET compared to 1% of their peers who attained 8 GCSEs at A*-C level.
You are more at risk of spending time NEET if you have no
qualifications
No Qualifications 8 A* -C GCSEs
72
28
99
1
17
Source: Department for Education. 2010.
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So what? Does being NEET for
a while matter?
18
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“Spending time NEET is a major predictor of later unemployment,
low income, depression and poor
mental health”19
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2008.
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A Matter of Life and DeathReports from the North of England
estimate that 1 in 7 long term NEETs are dead within a decade.
“For those who console ourselves with the thought that education is not
a matter of life and death, actually for those young people, for the most vulnerable children and young people
in our society, it really is.”
20
Source: Jon Coles quoted in Children & Young People Now. 2009.
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Teen Unemployment has a lasting effects…
Teenage unemployment leaves permanent scars, not temporary
blemishes:
“The effects of a period without work do not end with that spell”
21
Source: Ellwood. 1982.
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Thousands of young people are excluded from schoolIn England, between 2008 and 2009 there were:
6,550 permanent exclusions
363,280 fixed period exclusions.
22
Source: Department for Education. 2010.
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So what? Does being excluded
for a while matter?
23
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Permanent Exclusions have Permanent Effects
“Of those who are excluded on a permanent basis, only 27% of primary age pupils and 15% of
secondary pupils return to mainstream education”
24
Source: Parsons. 1996.
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Who is at highest risk of exclusion?
Boys: x 3.5 (permanent)
Special Educational Needs: x 8+ (permanent)
Black Caribbean Pupils: x 3 (permanent)
Free School Meals Pupils: x 3 (fixed term or permanent)
Young people in care: x 10 (fixed term or permanent)
25
Sources: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010. Social Exclusion Unit. 1998.
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So it is easy to see how education also matters for society.
Take crime as an example…
26
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High Exclusion Rates amongst 15-18 year olds Inside our Prisons
“90% of young men and 75% of young women had been excluded from school.”
27
Source: Cripps. 2009.
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What do we know about the 82,000 adult prison inmates…
Over 25% are former looked after children.
50% of all males and 33% of all females were excluded from school.
Over 50% of all males and 70% of all females achieved no qualifications at all at school or college.
Men Women
25%
50%
25%
33%
50%
70%
Were excluded from school
Former looked after children
Achieved no qualifications at school or college
28
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government. 2008.
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Young Offender Institutions
75% of young offenders did not attend school past the age of 13
29
Source: Smart Justice for Young People website. March 2011.http://www.smartjustice.org/ypfacts.html
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Nearly 3 in 4 of young offenders were excluded whilst at school
30
Source: Smart Justice for Young People website. March 2011.http://www.smartjustice.org/ypfacts.html
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Over half of those in Young Offender Institutions (aged
15-21) are below the expected level of an
average 11 year old in numeracy and literacy
31
Source: An Audit of Education Provision within the Juvenile Secure Estate. 2001.
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Through earnings, we can also see how education is linked
to health…
32
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Life expectancy
People living in the poorest neighbourhoods in England will, on average, die seven years
earlier than those living in the richest neighbourhoods. The gap is bigger between
some areas:
Kensington and Chelsea
Male = 88 years
Tottenham Green
Male = 71 years
33
Source: The Marmot Review. 2010.
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Parental income and child mortality
“The infant mortality rate for babies with fathers in routine occupations (NS-SEC group 7) was twice that for
babies with fathers in the higher managerial occupations.”
34
Source: Office for National Statistics. 2009.
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Education and the Economy“As the global economy changes, an economy’s prosperity will be driven
increasingly by its skills base”
35
Source: Leitch Review of Skills. 2006.
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We need skills“Skills are a key lever within our control to improve
productivity in the workplace – one fifth or more of the UK’s productivity gap with countries such as
France and Germany results from the UK’s relatively poor skills.”
“Increasingly, skills are a key determinant of employment – less than half of those with no
qualifications are in work, compared to nearly 90 per cent of those with graduate level qualifications.”
36
Source: Leitch Review of Skills. 2006.
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We need futuristic skills!
A focus on 'high levels of skill and creativity' and 'technological change' are needed.
“We require a skills system that not only responds to demand but is also able to anticipate future growth
in the economy in areas such as low carbon or bioscience, or in those driven by broader
demographic change such as the care, hospitality and leisure sectors.”
37
Source: The Schools White Paper. 2010.
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The UK’s Skills Profile is LowOf 30 OECD countries, the UK
currently lies 17th on low skills, 20th on intermediate skills and 11th on
high skills
“5 million adults in the UK lack functional literacy, and 17 million
adults have difficulty with numbers.”
38
Source: Leitch Review of Skills. 2006.
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Question: If inequalities are passed on from
one generation to the next, how do we break the cycle?
39
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2. The attainment
gap
40
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There are gaps by gender
41
Source: Department for Education. 2010.
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There are gaps by ethnic group
42
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010.
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The socio-economic
attainment gap starts early
43
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1 YearThe gap in ‘school readiness’
between 3-year-olds in the richest and poorest
families
44
Source: George et al. Centre for Longitudinal Studies. 2007.
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15 MonthsThe gap in vocabulary development between
5 year-olds in the richest and poorest families
45
Source: Blanden and Machin. Millennium Cohort Study Briefing. 2010.
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Vocabulary gaps aged 62-months
46
Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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The gaps don’t stop there. They continue, and widen,
throughout school
47
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Gaps in Key Stage 1 tests by FSM status
48
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010.
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Gaps in Key Stage 2 tests by FSM status
49
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010.
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The Gaps widen by Key Stage 4
2009 exam results by FSM for % 5 A*-C grades including English and Maths:
Percentage point gap = 27 points.
FSM
27
54
Non-FSM
% 5 A*-C GCSEs
(Eng & Maths)
National
50
51
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010.
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GCSE Gaps by Local Income Deprivation
In 2009, 38% of pupils in schools in the 10% most deprived areas gained 5 A*-C grades (including English and Maths) at
GCSE.
63% achieved this benchmark in the 10% least deprived areas.
This is a gap of 25 percentage points.
Most deprived
areas
Least deprived
areas
% 5 A*-C GCSEs (E&M)
63
38
51
Source: Department for Children, Schools and Families. 2010.
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Income deprivation and GCSE results are highly correlated, but there is large variation between schools
y = -0.2848x + 65.894
R2 = 0.2286
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of pupils living in the lowest 30% of the IDACI ranking
% 5
A*-
C G
CS
E (
E&
M)
52
Source: National Pupil Database and School Census information. 2010.
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In 2007/2008 the University of Oxford accepted:
711 Further Mathematics A-Levels
494 in total of the following A-Levels Accounting, Art & Design, Business Studies, Communication Studies, Design & Technology, Drama/Theatre Studies, Film Studies, Home Economics, ICT, Law, Media Studies, Music Technology, Psychology, Sociology, Sports Studies/Physical Education and Travel & Tourism A-level.
A-Level Choices Matter
53
Source: Fazackerley and Chant. Policy Exchange. 2008.
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Pupils at independent schools are roughly three times more likely to be doing
further maths and 2.5 times more likely to be doing a language A-level than those
at comprehensive schools.
Who is taking Further Maths?
54
Source: Select Committee Inquiry into Students and Universities. 2009.
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Who gets 3 Grade As at A-level?
55
Source: Select Committee Inquiry into Students and Universities. 2009.
“While only 20% of A-level students come from independent and grammar schools,
they account for over half of those gaining 3As. Only 7% of candidates in
comprehensive schools gain 3As.”
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From 7% to 46%: Independent school representation from school to Oxford
56
Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2008. Emery. Cambridge Assessment. 2009. University of Oxford. 2009.
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Different lives
57
Source: The Sutton Trust. 2009.
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“Britain is falling short in its aspiration to provide
equal chances for everyone to thrive”
58
Source: Equality and Human Rights Commission. 2010.
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Gaps in Access to Higher Education
59
16% of students at Russell Group universities are from lower socio-economics
backgrounds.
In 2008, out of over ½ a million applicants to higher education through UCAS, only 4.9%
were from students with a family background of routine occupations.
1/3 of admissions to Oxbridge came from 100 elite schools during the last 5 years.
Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009. UCAS Statistical Services. 2009. The Sutton Trust. 2008.
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Unequal access to the professions
60
Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.
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"The data we have seen suggests that tomorrow’s
professional is today growing up in a family
richer than seven in ten of all families in the UK.”
61
Sources: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.
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3. Does such
inequality have a cost?
62
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Yes.£1.3 trillion
63
Source: The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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How has that been calculated?
“Improving levels of social mobility for future generations in the UK would boost
the economy by up to £140 billion a year by 2050 in today’s prices – or an additional 4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over and
above any other growth.Overall the UK’s economy would see
cumulative gains of up to £1.3 trillion in GDP over the next 40 years.”
64
Source: The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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But currently we have the lowest social mobility in OECD
65
Source: D’Addio. OECD. 2010.
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Against other international rankings
we rate poorly…
66
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PISA 2009 resultsOf 65 countries the UK was ranked:
16th in Science
25th in Reading
28th in Maths
67
Source: PISA. 2009.
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PISA shows that England has large variation in results…
“England had a wide spread of attainment compared with many other countries. As well as high achievers,
England had a substantial ‘tail’ of low-scoring students. Only two PISA countries
had a wider spread than England (New Zealand and Israel).”
68
Source: PISA. 2006.
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The UK has high variation between its students
69
Source: OECD. 2010.
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4. Why does this
happen? What are the
causes?70
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There are many interrelated causes. This presentation
explores some of the inequalities in ORE:
Opportunities. Resources. Expectations.
71
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“In order to flourish in life, every person needs a basic level of financial security
and decent housing.”
72
Source: Equality and Human Rights Commission. 2010.
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Income deprivation is concentrated in certain geographical areas
73
Source: Office of National Statistics. 2010.
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London: wealth and poverty side by side
74
Source: Greater London Authority. 2008.
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13% of Children in England live in severe poverty*
• That’s approximately 1.7 million Children.
• And means that more than 1 in 5 children in the UK live in severe poverty.
• That’s 260,000 higher than the figures for 2004!
13%
75
*Severe poverty is defined as coupleliving on less than £12,220 a yearwhen they have one child.
Source: Save the Children. 2010.
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Question:Are socio-economic inequalities
getting better?
76
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Incomes in the UK are diverging
% s
hare
of
inco
me
"The richest 20% of households in the UK have over 40% of the total income. On the other hand, the bottom 20% receive
under 10%."
77
Source: Office for National Statistics. 2009.
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Child poverty predicted to rise
“In 2013–14, we expect relative poverty to rise by about 200,000 children,100,000 working-age parents and 200,000 working-age adults without children, and absolute poverty to rise by about 100,000 children, 100,000 working-age parents and 100,000 working-age adults without children.”
78
Source: Brewer and Joyce. Institute for Fiscal Studies. 2010.
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Question:What does childhood look like?
How much does it cost?
79
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Aged 3: Has internet at home
80
Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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Aged 3: Watches more than 3 hours of TV per day
81
27% 13% 5%
Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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Aged 3: Is read to daily
82
45% 65% 78%
Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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Aged 5: Taken to museum/gallery in last year
83
Source: Waldfogel and Washbrook. The Sutton Trust. 2010.
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1/5The proportion of students who have received private tuition at some point
during their school lives.
£24The average (median) cost of an hour
of private tuition in 2009.
84
Sources: Ipsos Mori. 2010. Tanner et al. NCSR. 2009.
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Money spent on education outside of school is increasing.
85
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$9 billionThe worldwide market for
edutainment toys reached $2.35 billion in 2007.
This figure is expected to reach $9 billion by 2012.
86
Source: www.instat.com. 2008.
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Question:Who can access this increasing market in educational goods?
87
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88
£6,762 vs £10,713(State vs Private)
On average, nearly £4,000 more is spent per pupil in the private sector than the state
sector.
£
Sources: Estimates based on DCSF figures. 2009. Independent School Council CENSUS. 2010.
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Low expectations? Which of the following best describes the
frequency with which you advise the academically gifted pupils that you teach
(or have taught) to apply to Oxbridge?
89
Source: IPSOS MORI Teachers Omnibus. 2007.
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44%The number of teachers in the
Teachers Omnibus 2007 who believe studying at Oxbridge is more
expensive than studying at other universities.
(They may now be right.)
90
Source: IPSOS MORI Teachers Omnibus. 2007.
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Internships: the unpaid route into the professions
“With four in five employers recruiting former interns, there is also compelling evidence that internships have become one of the most important routes into
the professions.”
91
Source: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.
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“the less advantaged are most put off by the costs of undertaking an internship”
Unleashing Aspiration Report, 2009.
Opportunities Come at a Cost
92
Source: Unleashing Aspiration Report. 2009.
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Good teaching and leadership is also a crucial resource…
93
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“Outstanding” or “Good” Leadership and Management relates to higher
GCSE results
94
Source: OFSTED. 2007/08.
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But, 1/3 of schools are still not meeting good standards of
Leadership and Management
The overall effectiveness of leadership and management of schools inspected between September 2007 and July 2008 (% of schools)
0 20 40 60 80 100
4- Inadequate
3 - Satisfactory
2 - Good
1 - Outstanding
Ofs
ted
Ratin
g
% of schools
95
Source: OFSTED. 2007/08.
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And, 40% of schools are still not meeting good standards of teaching
qualityThe overall effectiveness of teaching and learning between September 2007
and July 2008 (% of schools)
0 20 40 60 80 100
4- Inadequate
3 - Satisfactory
2 - Good
1 - Outstanding
Ofs
ted
Ratin
g
% of schools
96
Source: OFSTED. 2007/08.
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There are shortages in leadership
97
Source: Howson. 2010.
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40%The re-advertisement rate of
primary head teacher posts acrossEngland in 2009/10
98
Source: Howson and Sprigade. 2011.
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28%The re-advertisement rate of
secondary head teacher posts acrossEngland in 2009/10
99
Source: Howson and Sprigade. 2011.
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Teacher turnover can be high
100
Source: Passy and Golden. NFER. 2010.
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Perhaps wastage matters more than turnover?
Of the teachers surveyed who resigned in 2006, 18% included wastage which is the movement of teachers to the independent sector or leaving the teaching profession entirely
101
Source: Passy and Golden. NFER. 2010.
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What causes difficulties in recruitment?
Amongst the schools facing more difficulties in recruitment are those who meet two or more of the following characteristics from the list below:
102
Source: Howson. 2010.
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4%The proportion of trainee
teachers without any previous experience in a challenging
school, who say they are very likely to apply to teach in one for
their first job.
103
Source: Centre for Education and Inclusion Research and Division of Education and Humanities Sheffield Hallam University. 2009.
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Not up for the challenge?
Only 1 in 10 teachers, and 1 in 8 head teachers, are considering
working in a school in challenging circumstances.
104
Source: Centre for Education and Inclusion Research and Division of Education and Humanities Sheffield Hallam University. 2009.
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The status of teaching
Professionals Undergraduate
Social Worker 58 52
Nurse 57 51
Police Officer 47 45
Librarian 39 29
Pharmacist 20 19
Accountant 13 15
Engineer 12 7
Surveyor 12 8
Doctor 10 10
Solicitor 9 10
Vet 9 11
None of the above 8 13
Architect 6 5
Website Designer 5 6
Management Consultant
3 6
Surgeon 3 3
Barrister 3 4
The research question:
“Thinking about teachers compared to other professions, which of the following do you feel has a similar social status to teaching?”
105
Source: Freedman et al. Policy Exchange. 2008.
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What degrees classifications do teachers have?
106
Source: Freedman et al. Policy Exchange. 2008.
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Diversity in teaching?
9%
37%
0%
Independent
Grammar
Secondary modern
Comprehensive
Oxbridge graduates in teachingAll teachers
79%
4%
107
Source: Smithers and Tracey. Centre for Education and Employment Research. 2003.
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We need to keep learning more about which of these
factors really matter for pupils.
But…
108
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5. An attainment gap
is not inevitable
109
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Here, each blue dot is a school.Who are the outliers? / What are they
doing?y = -0.2848x + 65.894
R2 = 0.2286
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of pupils living in the lowest 30% of the IDACI ranking
% 5
A*-
C G
CS
E (
E&
M)
110
Source: National Pupil Database and School Census information. 2010.
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The cycle can be broken…
12 ‘outstanding’ schools serving disadvantaged communities…
111
Source: OFSTED. 2009.
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We know their outstanding characteristics:
112
Source: OFSTED. 2009.
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We know the features of schools that achieve, sustain and share excellence
113
Source: OFSTED. 2009.
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We don’t yet know all the answers, but we know that things need to
change.
114
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The next chapter starts here…
• Start debate…
115
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116