On the road to 2014 scam watch

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The results of the 2004 general elections indicated that the national election results were the net aggregate of the results of all states. There was no all-India pattern.

Neighbouring states had voted in opposite directions. The 2009 general election results, however, presented a different analysis. In most parts of the country there was a visible pro-incumbency trend. The Congress did better than its otherwise natural strength in the states. The urban constituencies voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Congress.

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“The possible presidential-type contest between the two emerging personalities will make it worse for the Congress. The possibility of one of the two major parties forging way ahead appears real. And this time it won’t be the Congress”

http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorial-views-on/ColumnsOthers/On-the-road-to-2014/Article1-1088905.aspx

The performance of the Congress in states

like Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh,

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat was much better than

its strength in the legislative assemblies

of those states.

With the two principal national parties without some of their regular allies, smaller and regional parties smell an opportunity for a Third Front. The Third Front has been experimented with on several occasions in India. It is a failed idea.

As we approach the next general elections some significant changes have taken place. The very acceptable persona of the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, in 2009 has been adversely affected. Corruption, indecisiveness, weak leadership, price rise and the terrible state of the economy have created a huge anti-incumbency environment.

The possibility of the party contesting under one leader is now real. The BJP had won 12 seats in Bihar in the last elections where its alliance has recently suffered a setback. It has an opportunity to improve upon this figure. In Karnataka, the party has to factor in electoral realities rather than internal imbalances.

As we approach the next general elections some significant changes have taken place. The very acceptable persona of the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, in 2009 has been adversely affected. Corruption, indecisiveness, weak leadership, price rise and the terrible state of the economy have created a huge anti-incumbency environment.

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There is no single party in the Third Front that is capable of winning a reasonable number of seats in Parliament giving it the strength to anchor a coalition. The anchor of a coalition necessarily has to be a party with over 150 seats in the Lok Sabha. Otherwise a coalition government would inherently be unstable. The Third Front has no one composite group. The DMK and the AIADMK, the Trinamool Congress and the Left, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, the JD(U) and the RJD obviously cannot be members of the same front. They occupy diametrically opposite spaces in their states. A very large number of regional parties also occupy the non-Congress space within their states.

They would run the danger of losing that non-Congress identity if they were to align in a post-electoral environment with the Congress.

The political issues which are evolving in the run-up to the general elections are loaded against the Congress. Lack of decisiveness and firm leadership is the cause of popular concern. Never in history has the institution of the prime minister been so severely belittled.

The prime minister is not regarded as either the leader of the country or of his own political party. The economic situation in the country is worrisome. The price rise has affected every citizen adversely, more so the middle classes and the weaker sections. Job creation has suffered. There has been a reverse flight of investment within the country. Business confidence is running low. Once perceived as a ‘dream team’ to handle India’s economy, it has produced a nightmare.

There is no single party in the Third Front that is capable of winning a reasonable number of seats in Parliament giving it the strength to anchor a coalition. The anchor of a coalition necessarily has to be a party with over 150 seats in the Lok Sabha. Otherwise a coalition government would inherently be unstable. The Third Front has no one composite group. The DMK and the AIADMK, the Trinamool Congress and the Left, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, the JD(U) and the RJD obviously cannot be members of the same front. They occupy diametrically opposite spaces in their states. A very large number of regional parties also occupy the non-Congress space within their states.

They would run the danger of losing that non-Congress identity if they were to align in a post-electoral environment with the Congress.

The political issues which are evolving in the run-up to the general elections are loaded against the Congress. Lack of decisiveness and firm leadership is the cause of popular concern. Never in history has the institution of the prime minister been so severely belittled.

The prime minister is not regarded as either the leader of the country or of his own political party. The economic situation in the country is worrisome. The price rise has affected every citizen adversely, more so the middle classes and the weaker sections. Job creation has suffered. There has been a reverse flight of investment within the country. Business confidence is running low. Once perceived as a ‘dream team’ to handle India’s economy, it has produced a nightmare.