Cedric Thomas, 2019

On FOSS Models and Upcoming Challenges

Cedric Thomas, OW2 CEO

Paris Open Source SummitParis December 10, 2019

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Non-Profit Open Source OrganizationEuropean and Global

Governance Members Code Base

Community Activities

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Cedric Thomas, 2019

DeveloperDeveloper EntrepreneurEntrepreneur EcosystemEcosystem IndustryIndustry

● Opportunistic disruption● Organic response

● Strategic commoditization● Collaborative innovation

● Concentration● Expansion

€ £$

¥€ £$

¥€ £

$¥

● Individualistic intention● Ethical sharing

Combined Proprietary & OSS

Innovation

OSS Innovation

Proprietary Innovation

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Uncontrolled Reuse 80 to 90% of an application is composed of components

Recent failure: leftpad, equifax, evenstream

FUD from compliance and vulnerability war stories may slow adoption

Way forward:

Automatic license management (SPDX)

Development best practices (OpenChain)

Advanced dependency management (FASTEN)

Source: Sonatype, DevSecOps Comunity Survey, 2018

Originalcode

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SaaS vs OSS OSS

Value proposition = functional code + freedom

OSS four freedoms based on access to code

Users bring in their technology efforts

Users receive free code and community support

Labour intensive

SaaS

Value proposition = consumable service

Access to code not part of the deal

Users register and provide data. Usage data is collected

Users settle their on-demand billings

Capital intensive

Capital

Labour

Code Service

GNU Logo:https://www.gnu.org/graphics/gnu-30.html

Programmer

Datacenter

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IA and OSS Conventional programming

Input x Program → Output

Knowledge is in the program

Program quality is important

Developer is central to the creation process

Machine learning programming

Input x Output → Program

Knowledge is is the data

Data quality is important

Developer is lateral to the creation process

Prof. Vogelsang, TU Berlin, 2nd Hamburg Requirements Engineering Symposium

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IoT and Verticalisation Beyond enterprise software

Pervasiveness of the open source model

Propagated with the software defined everything paradigm in IoT, Telco, etc.

Diversity and fragmentation

Reduced mutualisation across silos

Proprietary implementations

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Deviations Opportunistic Foundations

Open innovation vs open source innovation:

Market positioning

Technology ecosystems

Information sharing

“Market power over Community”

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Tricheurs_(Le_Caravage)#/media/Fichier:Cardsharps-Caravaggio_(c.1597).jpg

Code usage control

Deviations from fundamental OSS freedoms

Variations on licenses

Re free riders

Variations on code usage intentions

Code = law?

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Free Riders A tragedy of the commons

Consumer attitude drains the ecosystem

OSS maintainer burnout

OSS vendors struggling

How to reconnect users with develop communities?

Supply-push + Demand-pull

The role of the Open Source Programme Office (OSPO)

Compliance → Vulnerability

OSS ecosystem engagement

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Cedric Thomas, 2019

OSS Innovation Reflects Market Structure

Can EU SW industry envision extraordinary profits and monopoly positions?

Outsider in SW industry → Outsider in next market (platforms, AI, etc.)

Open source software is an avatar of proprietary software industry.

Dominant positions in global software industry are reflected in open source.

OSS innovation most efficient choice where no dominant position is expected.

Proprietary IP innovations only where dominant positions can be expected.

Source: P. Evans, Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterpsies, 2015

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Won? Really? Healthy and growing market

Average 2015-2020 growth: 11.6%

The bulk of the market is still elsewhere

OSS market penetration rate goes toward 14%

A monetization issue?

But mostly invisible for conventional investors

OSS-centric vision of the world

Fish don’t know they’re in water2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Open Source Software and Services Market in Europe

OW2 estimates based on published data by PAC and Gartner

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The 1% Industry? Multi-ecosystem players

Keystone players

e.g. IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, HuaweiFollowers

e.g. Orange, Adobe

Single-ecosystem players

Significant investment and commitment in a selected ecosystem

e.g. Rackspace and Fujitsu in OpenStack, Bosch in Eclipse, Telefonica in FIware, Yahoo in Apache

Niche players

Contributors (sometimes, temporarily key) and followers in single-ecosystem strategies

e.g. Mirantis, Docker, Obeo.

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www.ow2.orgFor more details please contact Cedric Thomas, OW2 CEO, cedric.thomas@ow2.org

Q&AFeedbackComplementsDisagreementsetc.

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