OMPETITIVITA’ E DEITO

COMPETITIVITA’ E DEBITO: UNA RAPPRESENTAZIONE DIVERSA

DELL’ITALIA

Intervento di Marco Fortis (Università Cattolica e Fondazione Edison)

Confindustria Bergamo, 26 febbraio 2014

1 Fondazione Edison

LA COMPETITIVITA’

2 Fondazione Edison

WHAT THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION THINKS ABOUT ITALY’S COMPETITIVENESS

• «Italy's export performance continues to suffer from an unfavourable product specialisation model and the limited ability of Italian firms to grow. Italy's specialization model is very similar to that of emerging markets such as China, with most of the value added in relatively low-tech traditional sectors, mainly due to Italian firms‘ limited innovation capacity» (In-depth review for ITALY, 10 aprile 2013).

Fondazione Edison 3

COME È CAMBIATO IL MADE IN ITALY (MA REHN NON LO SA…)

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Esportazioni nel 1994 (valori in milioni di euro)

Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Istat

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Fondazione Edison

COME È CAMBIATO IL MADE IN ITALY (MA REHN NON LO SA…)

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La bilancia commerciale non energetica extra UE-27 dei principali paesi UE: anno 2012

(miliardi di euro)

Germania 137,9 -75,6 213,5 164,7 13,1

Italia 1,7 -61,8 63,5 41,2 20,3

Francia 9,6 -47,1 56,7 32,7 -2,4

Svezia 16,3 -8,6 24,9 15,6 4,3

Irlanda 21,2 -2,1 23,3 -1,1 3,4

Austria 6,5 -8,0 14,5 8,0 5,9

Finlandia 4,2 -9,3 13,5 6,6 4,3

Spagna -34,7 -41,7 7,0 8,4 0,0

Portogallo -2,7 -6,8 4,1 1,6 2,8

Belgio -4,8 -4,3 -0,5 1,9 -6,6

Grecia -10,5 -7,3 -3,2 -2,7 -0,8

Regno Unito -97,0 -42,6 -54,4 6,0 -27,5

Olanda -128,5 -56,3 -72,2 -38,5 -24,2

TOTALE UE-27 -104,6 -422,5 317,9 255,6 -4,5

Fonte: elaborazione Fondazione Edison su dati Eurostat.

Totale bilancia

commercialeEnergia

Bilancia

commerciale

esclusa

l'energia

di cui:

meccanica e

mezzi di

trasporto

altri manufatti

Fondazione Edison

MORE DEBTS, MORE GROWTH, BUT UNSUSTAINABLE

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8 Fondazione Edison

THE ACTUAL CRISIS OF THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY ORIGINATED FROM A COLLAPSE OF THE DOMESTIC DEMAND

NOT FROM A LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS ON WORLD MARKETS

9 Fondazione Edison

ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER HAS FALLEN BECAUSE OF THE AUSTERITY

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Austerity effect

Fondazione Edison

THE ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER FOR EXPORTS IS GOING BETTER THAN GERMANY’S

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The “country’s institutional and infrastructural system factors” are the ones that more penalize the Italian economy,

not the entreprises’ competitiveness

Italy’s position in the ranking of the 60 economies covered by the

World Competitiveness Yearbook

Bureaucracy 56

Collected total tax revenues 54

Cost of capital 49

Legal and regulatory framework 55

Parallel economy 48

Distribution infrastructure of goods and services 50

Water transportation 46

Maintenance and development of infrastructure 44

Energy infrastructure 40

Electricity costs for industrial clients 53 Source: IMD, World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013


EMERGING COUNTRIES ARE MOVING UP, BUT ITALY’S MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IS STILL THE SECOND IN EUROPE

AND THE FIFTH IN THE WORLD


2012 (billions of US dollars)

2012 (billions of US dollars)

China 866 France -34

Germany 394 Indonesia -52

Japan 292 Saudi Arabia -60

South Korea 205 Brazil -81

Italy 113 United Kingdom -99

India -8 Canada -130

Mexico -20 Russia -140

Turkey -24 Australia -146

South Africa -28 United States -610

Argentina -29

Trade balances in manufactured products: G-20 Countries, Year 2012 (billions of US dollars)

Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from WTO

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2013 forecast 130 billions US $

Fondazione Edison

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Position of G-6 Countries, China and South Korea

in the ranking of competitiveness of the Trade Performance Index UNCTAD-WTO

Year 2012(ranking in each sector worldwide; in bold the placements among the top 10 most competitive countries)

Countries GERMANY ITALY CHINA REP. OF JAPAN FRANCE UNITED UNITED

Sectors KOREA KINGDOM STATES

Fresh food 27 37 48 85 88 19 43 7

Processed food 1 6 24 71 81 2 43 37

Wood and paper 1 26 38 49 50 29 36 25

Textiles 2 1 3 8 34 18 21 34

Leather products 14 1 2 44 86 11 18 38

Clothing 16 1 2 47 77 12 20 42

Chemicals 1 21 27 8 6 5 7 14

Basic manufactures 1 2 4 3 8 28 31 44

Non-electronic machinery 1 2 5 11 12 10 15 23

Electronic components 1 3 43 21 8 22 27 36

IT & Consumer electronics 11 22 7 6 40 17 18 21

Transport equipment 1 17 7 3 8 13 31 34

Miscellaneous manufacturing 1 2 9 40 10 22 27 23

Minerals 32 63 75 83 89 33 25 29

Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO

Fondazione Edison

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ITALY'S COMPETITIVENESS ACCORDING TO THE TRADE PERFORMANCE INDEX UNCTAD/WTO

Year 2012

Sectors

Position of Italy

in the Ranking of

Trade

Performance

Index

Value of

Italy's

Export

Italy's Net Trade

CLOTHING 1 16.5 2.2

LEATHER PRODUCTS 1 20.7 11.2

TEXTILES 1 12.2 4.5

NON-ELECTRONIC MACHINERY 2 84.8 53.0

BASIC MANUFACTURES 2 53.9 12.0

MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING 2 39.0 11.5

ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 3 23.2 2.7

PROCESSED FOOD 6 28.6 5.2

TOTAL 8 BEST SECTORS 278.9 102.3

Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre, UNCTAD/WTO

(billion dollars)

Fondazione Edison

ITALY IS THE THIRD NET EXPORTER OF NON-ELECTRONIC MACHINERY


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Italy's position in the trade balance world rankings Number of

products

Trade balance

corresponding

values

First 235 63

Second 390 74

Third 321 45

TOTAL 946 183

NUMBER OF PRODUCTS IN WHICH ITALY HOLDS THE TOP POSITIONS IN THE WORLD TRADE

Fortis-Corradini Index, Fondazione Edison ©

(case study on a total sample of 5,117 products traded at world level)

Year 2011; value in billions of dollars

Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from Istat, Eurostat and UN Comtrade data

Fondazione Edison

THE «TRADITIONAL» MADE IN ITALY: FOOD, FASHION, FURNITURE (1)

ITALY IS THE FIRST WORLD NET EXPORTER FOR MANY TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011

(US dollars)

Commodity Description Net trade value

Footwear, outer soles and uppers of leather, nes 2,655,474,250

Glazed ceramic flags, tiles wider than 7 cm 2,475,198,671

Handbags with outer surface of leather 2,183,184,334

Sunglasses 1,919,480,644

Uncooked pasta, not stuffed or prepared, without eggs 1,858,301,512

Bovine and equine leather, full or split grain, nes 1,827,081,797

Tomatoes, whole/pieces, prepared/preserved, no vinegar 1,010,616,109

Bovine and equine leather, nes 977,980,842

Apples, fresh 961,709,487

Footwear, soles, uppers of leather, over ankle, nes 651,068,582

Swine meat, salted/dried/smoked not ham/shoulder/belly 645,862,121

Woven fabric, >85% combed wool or fine hair, <300 g/m2 629,608,368

Womens, girls ensembles, material nes, not knit 606,254,483

Paper handkerchiefs, cleansing, facial tissues, towels 454,030,893

Parts of footwear nes, gaiters and leggings etc 443,426,563

Stuffed pasta 393,456,538

Womens, girls dresses, of material nes, not knit 377,024,926

Belts and bandoliers of leather or composition leather 356,695,303

Womens, girls overcoats, of impregnated, etc fabric 324,084,990

Clasps/buckles, etc for clothing, footwear, bags etc 314,574,500

Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade


THE «TRADITIONAL» MADE IN ITALY: FOOD, FASHION, FURNITURE (2)

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ITALY IS THE SECOND NET EXPORTER OF MANY TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011

(US dollars)

Commodity Description Net trade (US dollars)

Grape wines nes, fortified wine or must, pack < 2l 4,703,109,019

Furniture parts nes 1,968,156,484

Furniture, wooden, nes 1,855,849,955

Unglazed ceramic flags, tiles > 7 cm wide 1,570,625,367

Coffee, roasted, not decaffeinated 974,828,603

Chocolate/cocoa food preparations nes 924,478,378

Kitchen furniture, wooden, nes 776,195,803

Grapes, fresh 750,734,534

Communion wafers, rice paper, bakers wares nes 748,505,262

Chandeliers, other electric ceiling or wall lights 641,472,546

Tomatoes nes, prepared or preserved, not in vinegar 635,379,601

Grape wines, sparkling 558,665,107

Boots, sole rubber or plastic upper leather, nes 537,057,279

Worked marble, travertine and alabaster 482,507,243

Womens, girls garments nes, material nes, not knit 436,879,890

Panty hose etc, synthetic fibre yarn <67 dtex/sy, knit 435,648,788

Articles for pocket or handbag, leather outer surface 427,273,087

Mineral and aerated waters not sweetened or flavoured 425,636,282

Grape wines, alcoholic grape must nes 416,017,616

Kiwifruit, fresh 410,200,766


Fondazione Edison

THE «EMERGING» MADE IN ITALY: MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT (1)

ITALY IS ALSO THE FIRST WORLD NET EXPORTER OF MANY METAL, MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011

(US dollars)

Commodity Description Net trade

Packing or wrapping machinery nes 2,509,127,499

Motorboats, other than outboard motorboats 1,615,575,245

Electric conductors, 80-1,000 volts, no connectors 1,477,289,649

Parts of wash, filling, closing, aerating machinery 1,466,975,229

Pipes and tubing, stainless steel, welded 1,271,733,668

Helicopters of an unladen weight > 2,000 kg 1,182,428,687

Hollow profiles/tubes,iron/steel,non-circular, welded 1,117,304,515

Pipes etc nes, iron/steel welded nes,diameter <406.4mm 1,058,324,641

Pumps nes 1,002,920,880

Parts of metal rolling mills and rolls 917,738,807

Refrigerator/freezer chests/cabinets/showcases 892,217,776

Stainless steel bar nfw than cold formed/cold finished 834,706,728

Bakery and pasta making machinery 812,791,907

Heat exchange units, non-domestic, non-electric 799,783,605

Commercial equipment, hot drinks/cooking/heating food 757,457,960

Articles, iron or steel nes, forged/stamped, nfw 728,494,263

Insulated winding wire of copper 648,450,165

Machine tools for wood, cork or hard plastic, etc nes 463,414,700

Machinery for making up pulp, paper, paperboard nes 432,156,385

Machine tools nes for stone, ceramics and cold glass 413,655,806



THE «EMERGING» MADE IN ITALY: MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT (2)

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ITALY IS ALSO THE SECOND NET EXPORTER OF MANY METAL PRODUCTS, MECHANICAL

ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT PRODUCTS, YEAR 2011

(US dollars)

Commodity Description Net Trade (US dollars)

Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances, nes 4,511,185,267

Articles of iron or steel, nes 1,833,278,267

Parts of gas turbine engines except turbo-jet/prop 1,620,101,502

Wheeled tractors nes 1,492,561,492

Machinery to fill, close, aerate,etc bottle, container 1,473,442,493

Articles of aluminium 1,371,940,965

Cruise ships, excursion boats, ferry boats 1,278,503,821

Bolts/screws nes, with/without nut/washer, iron/steel 903,216,939

Parts of vacuum pumps, compressors,fans,blowers,hoods 872,747,378

Special purpose motor vehicles nes 708,033,812

Electric cooking, grilling & roasting equipment nes 693,133,336

Pipes, line, iron or steel, for oil or gas pipelines 597,641,828

Machinery for treatment by temperature change nes 585,726,142

Machines to agglomerate, shape, mould minerals or fuel 583,417,657

Rubber or plastic working machines, nes 566,692,004

Cooking appliances for gas fuel, etc, iron or steel 552,399,788

Bars, rods and other profiles, aluminium alloyed 538,867,915

Parts of turbo-jet or turbo-propeller engines 512,070,582

Parts of taps, cocks, valves or similar appliances 509,859,895

Lifts and skip hoists 480,025,872


Fondazione Edison

Italy is the second country after China for the highest number of non-food manufactured products

with a net trade value higher than of Germany’s

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Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Nations Comtrade, Eurostat, Istat

Fondazione Edison

IL DEBITO PUBBLICO


130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EUROZONE PUBLIC DEBT AND ITALY'S "MARKET SHARE" Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from European Commission

Italy's public debt/Eurozone's public debt measured in euro (in %, left scale) Italy's public debt to GDP ratio/Eurozone's public debt to GDP ratio (in %, right scale)


Note: data for Greece are not considered because not comparable with previous data.

DURING THE CRISIS ITALY’S GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT IS THAT GROWN LESS IN MONETARY TERM

AMONG UE COUNTRIES AND UNITED STATES AFTER SWEDEN’S

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Government consolidated gross debt(Millions of national currency)

2008Q3 2013Q3pct chg 2013/Q3

compared to 2008/Q3

Ireland 71.376 204.696 186,8%

Spain 400.870 954.863 138,2%

United Kingdom 689.069 1.431.399 107,7%

Finland 55.616 105.496 89,7%

Portugal 119.377 210.965 76,7%

United States 10.024.725 16.738.184 67,0%

Netherlands 276.610 442.163 59,9%

France 1.289.913 1.900.848 47,4%

Austria 174.380 239.838 37,5%

Germany 1.633.873 2.126.831 30,2%

ITALY 1.653.905 2.068.722 25,1%

Sweden 1.226.559 1.461.328 19,1%

Source: Eurostat

Fondazione Edison

PUBLIC DEBT HELD BY NON-RESIDENTS IS GROWING FAST IN MANY COUNTRIES BUT NOT IN ITALY


ITALY IS AMONG THE FEW EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WITH GOVERNMENT BALANCE UNDER 3 PCT OF GDP

Government balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)

Germany 0.1 Poland -3.9

Estonia -0.2 Belgium -4.0

Sweden -0.2 Denmark -4.1

Luxembourg -0.6 Netherlands -4.1

Bulgaria -0.8 Czech Republic -4.4

Latvia -1.3 Slovakia -4.5

Finland -1.8 France -4.8

Hungary -2.0 Croatia -5.0

Austria -2.5 United Kingdom -6.1

Italy -3.0 Cyprus -6.4

Romania -3.0 Portugal -6.4

Lithuania -3.2 Ireland -8.2

Malta -3.3 Greece -9.0

Slovenia -3.8 Spain -10.6

Source: Eurostat


ITALY AND GERMANY HAVE THE BEST PRIMARY GOVERNMENT BALANCE

Government primary balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)

Germany 2.5 Lithuania -1.4

Italy 2.5 Slovenia -1.7

Hungary 2.2 Croatia -1.9

Sweden 0.5 Portugal -2.1

Bulgaria 0.1 Netherlands -2.2

Austria 0.1 France -2.3

Latvia 0.0 Denmark -2.5

Estonia -0.1 Slovakia -2.7

Luxembourg -0.1 Czech Republic -2.9

Malta -0.2 United Kingdom -3.1

Belgium -0.6 Cyprus -3.3

Finland -0.7 Greece -4.0

Poland -1.1 Ireland -4.5

Romania -1.2 Spain -7.6

Source: Eurostat


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GOVERNMENT PRIMARY BALANCE OF 5 MAJOR EU COUNTRIES(Billions of national currency)

GERMANIA SPAGNA FRANCIA ITALIA UKSURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT SURPLUS DEFICIT

1996 2,6 -1,3 -5,6 45,3 -5,4

1997 12,2 3,4 1,8 68,7 11,4

1998 20,4 6,4 9,0 57,0 29,4

1999 31,1 12,7 16,2 52,3 34,8

2000 88,8 14,3 19,5 65,0 61,4

2001 0,3 17,0 20,4 39,0 28,3

2002 -18,8 17,3 -5,1 32,2 -1,6

2003 -24,4 16,0 -20,2 20,1 -17,5

2004 -19,4 16,6 -14,1 16,9 -18,9

2005 -10,9 27,9 -4,5 2,6 -17,4

2006 27,9 39,4 4,0 17,9 -10,8

2007 74,1 37,7 -0,9 52,2 -9,4

2008 66,4 -31,7 -8,0 38,6 -39,9

2009 -10,0 -97,9 -96,9 -12,6 -133,7

2010 -40,9 -80,2 -90,4 1,9 -105,6

2011 44,2 -73,7 -53,2 17,7 -68,0

2012 66,1 -78,2 -46,2 39,7 -48,2

2013 61,6 -34,2 -36,3 36,1 -54,8

Fondazione Edison

IN THE LAST 2 DECADES, ITALY CUMULATED THE HIGHER GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SURPLUS OF THE WORLD

IN THE MODERN HISTORY


MEASURING THE PUBLIC DEBT: THE GDP IS NOT THE UNIQUE POSSIBLE DENOMINATOR. THE PRIVATE WEALTH IS ANOTHER

ONE AND BY FAR MORE IMPORTANT

216 192 192

178

147 139 128 122 118

85 85 63

39

0

50

100

150

200

250

Households net financial assets: Year 2012 (pct of GDP)

Source: Eurostat


ITALY HAS THE SECOND PUBLIC DEBT OF THE EU IN PCT OF GDP, BUT ONLY THE FOURTEENTH

IN PCT OF HOUSEHOLDS NET FINANCIAL ASSETS


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SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY

Risk classification in the 2013 assessment round(Western EU countries, escluding Greece, Ireland and Portugal)

Low risk Medium risk High risk

Short-term challenges:

S0 Indicator (early detection

of fiscal stress)

Malta (0.41) Belgium (0.3)

United Kingdom (0.29) ITALY

(0.28) Denmark (0.24)

Sweden (0.24) France (0.19)

Netherlands (0.15) Finland

(0.13) Luxembourg (0.12)

Austria (0.07) GERMANY

(0.02)

Spain (0.45)

Medium to long-term

challenges:

S1 Indicator (fiscal

adjustment required until

2020 to reach a 60% public

debt/GDP ratio by 2030, in

per cent of GDP)

GERMANY (-0.3)

Luxembourg (-1.5) Denmark (-

2.5) Sweden (-2.7)

Austria (2.4) France (2.3)

Finland (2.1) ITALY (1.1)

Spain (6.1) United Kingdom

(6.1) Belgium (5.2)

Netherlands (3.1) Malta (3.1)

Medium to long-term

challenges:

S2 Indicator ( ageing-

induced fiscal risks)

France (1.9) Denmark (1.7)

GERMANY (1.4) ITALY (-

2.1)

Spain (5.6) Austria (4)

Sweden (2.4)

Luxembourg (8.6) Belgium

(6.9) Malta (6.8) Netherlands

(6.5) Finland (6.2) United

Kingdom (6.2)

Source: European Commission, Public Finances in European Monetary Union 2013, p. 42

Fondazione Edison

LE 10 COSE CHE PADOAN DEVE SPIEGARE A BRUXELLES

• 1) Dal 1992 al 2013 l’Italia è stata in avanzo primario per 21 anni su 22: un record assoluto nell’Occidente avanzato.

• 2) Dal 1992 al 2013, nei 21 anni in cui l’Italia è stata in avanzo primario, quest’ultimo è stato per ben 14 anni superiore al 2% del PIL: solo Belgio e Danimarca hanno fatto meglio dell’Italia sul totale dei 28 Paesi UE, USA e Giappone.

• 3) Dal 3° trimestre 2008 al 3° trimestre 2013, durante l’attuale crisi, il debito pubblico italiano è quello aumentato percentualmente di meno in valore monetario in tutto l’Occidente avanzato dopo i debiti pubblici di Norvegia e Svezia.



• 4) Nel quadriennio 2012-2015 il deficit/PIL dell’Italia è stato e sarà sempre sotto il 3%.

• 5) Nel quadriennio 2012-2015 l’Italia è stata e sarà il Paese dell’UE «non aiutato» con il più alto avanzo statale primario/PIL.

• 6) Dal 1996 al 2013 l’Italia ha generato il più grande avanzo statale primario cumulato in valore dell’Occidente avanzato (poco meno di 600 miliardi di euro) e il secondo dell’Eurozona in punti percentuali di PIL (47%) dopo la Finlandia. La Germania, per un confronto, ha avuto un avanzo statale cumulato di 16 punti percentuali di PIL, mentre USA, Giappone, UK, Francia e Spagna presentano rilevanti disavanzi primari cumulati.



• 7) Il debito pubblico estero italiano, in base a dati del 2012, è pari solo al 45% del PIL, un valore in linea con quelli di Paesi «virtuosi» come la Finlandia (44%) o la Germania (43%), ed inferiore a quello della Francia (50%).

• 8) Il debito pubblico interno italiano è indubbiamente alto rispetto al PIL ma non preoccupante se confrontato con l’ingente ricchezza finanziaria netta delle famiglie che sorregge il sistema bancario-finanziario nazionale e lo Stato stesso. In ciò l’Italia si differenzia nettamente dalla Spagna.

• 9) La stessa Commissione Europea riconosce che nel medio-lungo termine, grazie alle riforme pensionistiche già adottate, l’Italia presenta il più basso profilo di rischio finanziario del debito pubblico tra tutti i Paesi UE. 49 Fondazione Edison


• 10) Ciò che vanifica gli sforzi fiscali dell’Italia sono gli spropositati interessi che il nostro Paese paga da sempre, rispetto alla sua comprovata capacità di esprimere continuativi surplus primari nel tempo. Il rating dell’Italia è semplicemente assurdo. Se dal 1997 tutti i Paesi avessero ipoteticamente sospeso il pagamento degli interessi sul debito pubblico, nel 2013 il debito pubblico italiano sarebbe sceso al 49% del PIL rispetto al 120% del 1996. Gli Stati Uniti sarebbero invece oggi al 66%, la Gran Bretagna al 61%, la Spagna al 59%, la Francia al 55%, il Giappone al 200%. Nel caso di Paesi oggettivamente virtuosi, come il nostro, l’Unione Europea dovrebbe introdurre misure compensative, ad esempio degli appositi Eurobond per sterilizzare gli interessi eccessivi. Tali misure dovrebbero scattare solo nei riguardi di Paesi (come l’Italia) che, senza aiuti, si dimostrano capaci di mantenere stabilmente il surplus statale primario sopra il 2% del PIL.


OMPETITIVITA’ E DEITO

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