Om1 Pgdm Session 6
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Transcript of Om1 Pgdm Session 6
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S7 - 1
Capacity Planning 77S
UP
PL
EM
EN
TS
UP
PL
EM
EN
T
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S7 - 2
Outline
► Capacity► Bottleneck Analysis and the Theory
of Constraints► Break-Even Analysis► Reducing Risk with Incremental
Changes
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S7 - 3
Outline - Continued
► Applying Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to Capacity Decisions
► Applying Investment Analysis to Strategy-Driven Investments
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S7 - 4
Learning Objectives
When you complete this supplement you should be able to :
1. Define capacity
2. Determine design capacity, effective capacity, and utilization
3. Perform bottleneck analysis
4. Compute break-even
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Learning Objectives
When you complete this supplement you should be able to :
5. Determine the expected monetary value of a capacity decision
6. Compute net present value
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Capacity► The throughput, or the number of units
a facility can hold, receive, store, or produce in a period of time
► Determines fixed costs
► Determines if demand will be satisfied
► Three time horizons
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Planning Over a Time HorizonFigure S7.1
Modify capacity Use capacity
Intermediate-range planning (aggregate planning)
Subcontract Add personnelAdd equipment Build or use inventory Add shifts
Short-range planning (scheduling)
Schedule jobsSchedule personnel Allocate machinery*
Long-range planning
Add facilitiesAdd long lead time equipment *
* Difficult to adjust capacity as limited options exist
Options for Adjusting CapacityTime Horizon
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Design and Effective Capacity
► Design capacity is the maximum theoretical output of a system
► Normally expressed as a rate
► Effective capacity is the capacity a firm expects to achieve given current operating constraints
► Often lower than design capacity
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Utilization and Efficiency
Utilization is the percent of design capacity actually achieved
Efficiency is the percent of effective capacity actually achieved
Utilization = Actual output/Design capacity
Efficiency = Actual output/Effective capacity
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S7 - 10© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shifts
Design capacity = (7 x 3 x 8) x (1,200) = 201,600 rolls
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S7 - 11© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shifts
Design capacity = (7 x 3 x 8) x (1,200) = 201,600 rolls
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S7 - 12© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shifts
Design capacity = (7 x 3 x 8) x (1,200) = 201,600 rolls
Utilization = 148,000/201,600 = 73.4%
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S7 - 13© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shifts
Design capacity = (7 x 3 x 8) x (1,200) = 201,600 rolls
Utilization = 148,000/201,600 = 73.4%
Efficiency = 148,000/175,000 = 84.6%
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S7 - 14© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shifts
Design capacity = (7 x 3 x 8) x (1,200) = 201,600 rolls
Utilization = 148,000/201,600 = 73.4%
Efficiency = 148,000/175,000 = 84.6%
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S7 - 15© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shiftsEfficiency = 84.6%Efficiency of new line = 75%
Expected Output = (Effective Capacity)(Efficiency)
= (175,000)(.75) = 131,250 rolls
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S7 - 16© 2014 Pearson Education
Bakery Example
Actual production last week = 148,000 rollsEffective capacity = 175,000 rollsDesign capacity = 1,200 rolls per hourBakery operates 7 days/week, 3 - 8 hour shiftsEfficiency = 84.6%Efficiency of new line = 75%
Expected Output = (Effective Capacity)(Efficiency)
= (175,000)(.75) = 131,250 rolls
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S7 - 17© 2014 Pearson Education
Capacity and Strategy
► Capacity decisions impact all 10 decisions of operations management as well as other functional areas of the organization
► Capacity decisions must be integrated into the organization’s mission and strategy
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Capacity Considerations
1. Forecast demand accurately
2. Match technology increments and sales volume
3. Find the optimum operating size(volume)
4. Build for change
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Economies and Diseconomies of Scale
Economies of scale
Diseconomies of scale
1,300 sq ft store 2,600 sq ft
store
8,000 sq ft store
Number of square feet in store1,300 2,600 8,000
Ave
rage
uni
t co
st(s
ales
per
squ
are
foot
)
Figure S7.2
© 2014 Pearson Education
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Managing Demand► Demand exceeds capacity
► Curtail demand by raising prices, scheduling longer lead time
► Long term solution is to increase capacity
► Capacity exceeds demand► Stimulate market
► Product changes
► Adjusting to seasonal demands► Produce products with complementary
demand patterns
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Tactics for Matching Capacity to Demand
1. Making staffing changes
2. Adjusting equipment► Purchasing additional machinery
► Selling or leasing out existing equipment
3. Improving processes to increase throughput
4. Redesigning products to facilitate more throughput
5. Adding process flexibility to meet changing product preferences
6. Closing facilities
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Service-Sector Demand and Capacity Management
► Demand management► Appointment, reservations, FCFS rule
► Capacity management
► Full time, temporary, part-time staff
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Bottleneck Analysis and the Theory of Constraints
► Each work area can have its own unique capacity
► Capacity analysis determines the throughput capacity of workstations in a system
► A bottleneck is a limiting factor or constraint► A bottleneck has the lowest effective capacity
in a system
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Bottleneck Analysis and the Theory of Constraints
► The bottleneck time is the time of the slowest workstation (the one that takes the longest) in a production system
► The throughput time is the time it takes a unit to go through production from start to end
2 min/unit 4 min/unit 3 min/unit
A B C
Figure S7.4
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Capacity Analysis► Two identical sandwich lines► Lines have two workers and three operations ► All completed sandwiches are wrapped
Wrap/Deliver
37.5 sec/sandwich
Order
30 sec/sandwich
Bread Fill
15 sec/sandwich 20 sec/sandwich
20 sec/sandwichBread Fill
Toaster15 sec/sandwich 20 sec/sandwich
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Capacity Analysis
Wrap/Deliver
37.5 sec
Order
30 sec
Bread Fill
15 sec 20 sec
20 secBread Fill
Toaster15 sec 20 sec
► The two lines each deliver a sandwich every 20 seconds
► At 37.5 seconds, wrapping and delivery has the longest processing time and is the bottleneck
► Capacity per hour is 3,600 seconds/37.5 seconds/sandwich = 96 sandwiches per hour
► Throughput time is 30 + 15 + 20 + 20 + 37.5 = 122.5 seconds
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Capacity Analysis► Standard process for cleaning teeth► Cleaning and examining X-rays can happen
simultaneously
Checkout
6 min/unit
Check in
2 min/unit
DevelopsX-ray
4 min/unit 8 min/unit
DentistTakesX-ray
2 min/unit
5 min/unit
X-rayexam
Cleaning
24 min/unit
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Capacity Analysis
► All possible paths must be compared► Bottleneck is the hygienist at 24 minutes► Hourly capacity is 60/24 = 2.5 patients► X-ray exam path is 2 + 2 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 6 = 27
minutes► Cleaning path is 2 + 2 + 4 + 24 + 8 + 6 = 46
minutes► Longest path involves the hygienist cleaning
the teeth, patient should complete in 46 minutes
Checkout
6 min/unit
Check in
2 min/unit
DevelopsX-ray
4 min/unit 8 min/unit
DentistTakesX-ray
2 min/unit
5 min/unit
X-rayexam
Cleaning
24 min/unit
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Questions
▶7.9
▶7.11
▶7.12
▶7.13
▶7.14
▶7.15
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Break-Even Analysis
► Technique for evaluating process and equipment alternatives
► Objective is to find the point in dollars and units at which cost equals revenue
► Requires estimation of fixed costs, variable costs, and revenue
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Break-Even Analysis► Fixed costs are costs that continue even
if no units are produced► Depreciation, taxes, debt, mortgage
payments
► Variable costs are costs that vary with the volume of units produced
► Labor, materials, portion of utilities
► Contribution is the difference between selling price and variable cost
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Break-Even Analysis
► Revenue function begins at the origin and proceeds upward to the right, increasing by the selling price of each unit
► Where the revenue function crosses the total cost line is the break-even point
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Profit corrid
or
Loss
corrid
or
Break-Even AnalysisTotal revenue line
Total cost line
Variable cost
Fixed cost
Break-even pointTotal cost = Total revenue
–
900 –
800 –
700 –
600 –
500 –
400 –
300 –
200 –
100 –
–| | | | | | | | | | | |
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 10001100
Cos
t in
dolla
rs
Volume (units per period)Figure S7.5
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Break-Even Analysis
► Costs and revenue are linear functions
► Generally not the case in the real world
► We actually know these costs► Very difficult to verify
► Time value of money is often ignored
Assumptions
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Break-Even AnalysisBEPx= break-even point in units
BEP$= break-even point in dollarsP = price per unit (after all discounts)
x= number of units producedTR = total revenue = PxF= fixed costsV= variable cost per unitTC = total costs = F + Vx
TR = TCor
Px = F + Vx
Break-even point occurs when
BEPx =F
P – V
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Break-Even AnalysisBEPx= break-even point in units
BEP$= break-even point in dollarsP = price per unit (after all discounts)
x= number of units producedTR = total revenue = PxF= fixed costsV= variable cost per unitTC = total costs = F + Vx
BEP$ = BEPx P = P
=
=
F(P – V)/P
FP – V
F1 – V/P
Profit = TR - TC= Px – (F + Vx)= Px – F – Vx= (P - V)x – F
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Break-Even Example
Fixed costs = $10,000 Material = $.75/unitDirect labor = $1.50/unit Selling price = $4.00 per unit
BEP$ = =F
1 – (V/P)
$10,000
1 – [(1.50 + .75)/(4.00)]
= = $22,857.14$10,000
.4375
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Break-Even Example
Fixed costs = $10,000 Material = $.75/unitDirect labor = $1.50/unit Selling price = $4.00 per unit
BEP$ = =F
1 – (V/P)
$10,000
1 – [(1.50 + .75)/(4.00)]
= = $22,857.14$10,000
.4375
BEPx = = = 5,714F
P – V
$10,000
4.00 – (1.50 + .75)
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Break-Even Example
50,000 –
40,000 –
30,000 –
20,000 –
10,000 –
–| | | | | |
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Dol
lars
Units
Fixed costs
Total costs
Revenue
Break-even point
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Break-Even Example
Multiproduct Case
where V = variable cost per unitP = price per unitF = fixed costsW = percent each product is of total dollar sales
expressed as a decimali = each product
Break-even point in dollars (BEP$)
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Multiproduct ExampleFixed costs = $3,000 per month
ITEM PRICE COST ANNUAL FORECASTED SALES UNITS
Sandwich $5.00 $3.00 9,000
Drink 1.50 .50 9,000
Baked potato 2.00 1.00 7,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ITEM (i)SELLING PRICE (P)
VARIABLE COST (V) (V/P) 1 - (V/P)
ANNUAL FORECASTED
SALES $% OF
SALES
WEIGHTED CONTRIBUTION (COL 5 X COL 7)
Sandwich $5.00 $3.00 .60 .40 $45,000 .621 .248
Drinks 1.50 0.50 .33 .67 13,500 .186 .125
Baked potato 2.00 1.00 .50 .50 14,000 .193 .097
$72,500 1.000 .470
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Multiproduct ExampleFixed costs = $3,000 per month
ITEM PRICE COST ANNUAL FORECASTED SALES UNITS
Sandwich $5.00 $3.00 9,000
Drink 1.50 .50 9,000
Baked potato 2.00 1.00 7,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ITEM (i)SELLING PRICE (P)
VARIABLE COST (V) (V/P) 1 - (V/P)
ANNUAL FORECASTED
SALES $% OF
SALES
WEIGHTED CONTRIBUTION (COL 5 X COL 7)
Sandwich $5.00 $3.00 .60 .40 $45,000 .621 .248
Drinks 1.50 0.50 .33 .67 13,500 .186 .125
Baked potato 2.00 1.00 .50 .50 14,000 .193 .097
$72,500 1.000 .470
= = $76,596$3,000 x 12
.47
Daily sales = = $245.50
$76,596
312 days
.621 x $245.50
$5.00= 30.5 31
Sandwicheseach day
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Problems
page 3197.267.27
7.167.17
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Reducing Risk with Incremental Changes
(a) Leading demand with incremental expansion
Dem
and Expected
demand
New capacity
(d) Attempts to have an average capacity with incremental expansion
Dem
and
New capacity Expected
demand
(c) Lagging demand with incremental expansion
Dem
and
New capacity
Expected demand
Figure S7.6
(b) Leading demand with a one-step expansion
Dem
and Expected
demand
New capacity
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Reducing Risk with Incremental Changes
(a) Leading demand with incremental expansion
Expected demand
Figure S7.6
New capacity
Dem
and
Time (years)1 2 3
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Reducing Risk with Incremental Changes
(b) Leading demand with a one-step expansion
Expected demand
Figure S7.6
New capacity
Dem
and
Time (years)1 2 3
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Reducing Risk with Incremental Changes
(c) Lagging demand with incremental expansion
Expected demand
Dem
and
Time (years)1 2 3
New capacity
Figure S7.6
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Reducing Risk with Incremental Changes(d) Attempts to have an average capacity with
incremental expansion
Expected demand
New capacity
Dem
and
Time (years)1 2 3
Figure S7.6
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Applying Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Capacity
Decisions
► Determine states of nature► Future demand► Market favorability
► Assign probability values to states of nature to determine expected value
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EMV Applied to Capacity Decision
▶Southern Hospital Supplies capacity expansion
EMV (large plant) = (.4)($100,000) + (.6)(–$90,000)= –$14,000
EMV (medium plant) = (.4)($60,000) + (.6)(–$10,000)= +$18,000
EMV (small plant) = (.4)($40,000) + (.6)(–$5,000)= +$13,000
EMV (do nothing) = $0
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Problems
▶7.28
▶7.29
Page 320
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Strategy-Driven Investment
► Operations managers may have to decide among various financial options
► Analyzing capacity alternatives should include capital investment, variable cost, cash flows, and net present value
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Net Present Value (NPV)
where F = future valueP = present valuei = interest rate
N = number of years
P =F
(1 + i)N
F = P(1 + i)N
In general:
Solving for P:
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Net Present Value (NPV)
where F = future valueP = present valuei = interest rate
N = number of years
P =F
(1 + i)N
F = P(1 + i)N
In general:
Solving for P:
While this works fine, it is cumbersome for
larger values of N
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NPV Using Factors
P = = FXF
(1 + i)N
where X = a factor from Table S7.1 defined as = 1/(1 + i)N and F = future value
Portion of Table S7.1
TABLE S7.1 Present Value of $1
YEAR 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
1 .943 .926 .909 .893 .877
2 .890 .857 .826 .797 .769
3 .840 .794 .751 .712 .675
4 .792 .735 .683 .636 .592
5 .747 .681 .621 .567 .519
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Present Value of an Annuity
An annuity is an investment which generates uniform equal payments
S = RX
where X = factor from Table S7.2S = present value of a series of uniform annual receiptsR = receipts that are received every year of the life of the investment
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Present Value of an Annuity
Portion of Table S7.2
TABLE S7.2 Present Value of and Annuity of $1
YEAR 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
1 .943 .926 .909 .893 .877
2 1.833 1.783 1.736 1.690 1.647
3 2.676 2.577 2.487 2.402 2.322
4 3.465 3.312 3.170 3.037 2.914
5 4.212 3.993 3.791 3.605 3.433
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Present Value of an Annuity
▶River Road Medical Clinic equipment investment
$7,000 in receipts per for 5 yearsInterest rate = 6%
From Table S7.2X = 4.212
S = RXS = $7,000(4.212) = $29,484
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Problems
▶ 7.30
▶7.31
▶7.32
▶7.33
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Limitations
1. Investments with the same NPV may have different projected lives and salvage values
2. Investments with the same NPV may have different cash flows
3. Assumes we know future interest rates
4. Payments are not always made at the end of a period