Journal of Agricultural Sciences Vol. 58, No. 3, 2013 Pages 195-207

DOI: 10.2298/JAS1303195OUDC: 631.15(669);339.18:63(669)

Original scientific paper

RURAL-URBAN PRICE TRANSMISSION AND MARKET INTEGRATION OF SELECTED HORTICULTURAL CROPS IN OYO STATE, NIGERIA

Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu* and Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry,

University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract: The majority of agricultural markets in African countries are inefficient and poorly integrated. This study therefore assessed the level of market integration and the trend analysis of selected vegetable crops in Oyo State. It also identified the leading market between rural and urban markets in Oyo state. Secondary data on the prices of fresh tomato, onion, chilli pepper, sweet pepper, and fresh pepper (2003–2011) were obtained from Oyo State Agricultural Development Programme and were analysed using trend analyses, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Granger causality test and index of market concentration. Results showed that the prices of onion, chilli pepper and fresh pepper were non-stationary in their various level forms but stationary at first difference; while prices of fresh tomato and sweet pepper in urban markets were stationary at their level form at probability of 5% respectively. The indices of market concentration for onion, sweet pepper, fresh pepper, chilli pepper were less than one suggesting high short-run market integration, whereas fresh tomato achieved low short-run market integration. Further, urban markets were the leading markets for onion, chilli pepper and sweet pepper, while rural markets were the leading markets for fresh tomato and fresh pepper.

Key words: rural, urban, market integration, spices, prices.

Introduction

Efficient food marketing system and its role in food security in Nigeria is pivotal to a reduction in post harvest losses; ensuring adequate returns to farmer’s investment and stimulating an expansion in food production thereby enhancing the level of food security in Nigeria through adequate information about prices of agricultural produce (Ladele and Ayoola, 1997). Prices are a measure of availability because they tend to rise as the supply of food falls in relation to demand (e.g. poor production, constrained imports of food), and they tend to fall when supply expands in relation to demand (e.g. a bumper harvest). Agricultural *Corresponding author: e-mail: jkemmyade@yahoo.co.uk

Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu and Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi 196

prices contribute significantly to the pace and direction of agricultural development. They serve as market signals of the relative scarcity or abundance of a given product (Akintunde et al., 2012). Prices also serve as a stimulus to direct the allocation of economic resources and to a large extent they decide the structure and rate of economic growth. Prices vary almost throughout the year and understanding the trend of such variations was therefore essential for good planning by the producers, consumers and policy makers.

Agricultural commodity prices unprecedentedly fluctuated and continuously increased from 2002 to mid 2008. This resulted in price volatility, food inflation, poverty and hunger, coupled with inadequate market price transmission. High food prices increased the levels of food deprivation, food insecurity, worsening conditions for many who were already food insecure and thus threatening global long-term food security (Abbott, 2009). This has placed a tremendous pressure on achieving the millennium development goal (MDG) on hunger by the year 2015 (FAO, 2008). The price volatility of agricultural commodities in Nigeria is attributable to various factors including variances in bargaining power among consumers, cyclical income fluctuations among sellers and consumers, natural shocks and inappropriate response by farmers to price signals (Adebusuyi, 2004; Udoh and Sunday, 2007). However, short-run fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices take place between production seasons. During the harvesting period farmers offer to the market the minimum price for their products while prices become high during the drought or off-season owing to reduced production and seasonal changes (Cashin and Pattillo, 2000; Akpan, 2002). The issue of market integration (co-movement of prices and smooth transmission of price signals and information across spatially separated markets) is fundamental to many contemporary debates on market liberation, price policy and parastatal reform in food market of developing countries. The integration of agricultural commodity market is therefore a necessity for the effectiveness of agricultural marketing reform programmes. It ensures the transmission of price signals from food deficit to food surplus areas and help farmers to increase specialization and harness comparative advantages and gains from trade (Baulch, 1997). The aim of market integration analyses therefore is to find the possibility of achieving some gains by trading across commodity markets, exploiting price movements in one market (urban) for the prediction of price movements in another market (rural) (Okoh and Egbon, 2005).

The majority of agricultural markets in African countries are inefficiently and poorly integrated and agricultural marketing efficiency in Nigeria is dismally low (Onyuma et al., 2006; Phillip et al., 2008). A major characteristic of agricultural markets in Oyo State is the inter- and intra-pricing variations among its urban and rural retail markets due to the forces of demand and supply (Adenegan and Adeoye, 2011). The majority of farmers and retailers have poor access to credit

Rural-urban price transmission and market integration of horticultural crops 197

which may reduce their ability to respond to price changes (Okoh and Egbon, 2005). Consequent to these factors, market service areas covered by traders may overlap with several sellers operating within the same market or village. Therefore, there exists a possibility that a price change in one market would result in a series of price responses that spread throughout contiguous market areas in this case such price changes may not have discernible effects on more distant markets making the attainment of an integrated foodstuff market system a mirage (Akintunde et al., 2012).

Vegetable marketing is often characterized mainly by the problem of seasonality and perishability. The quality and nutritional value of fresh produce like tomato, fresh pepper, sweet pepper, chilli pepper and onion are affected by post harvest handling and storage conditions (Sablani et al., 2006). Many consumers do not have price information on the selected vegetables in various retail markets which might lead to exploitation due to insufficient price statistics and a familiar problem is the inter and intra-pricing variations among urban and rural retail markets due to the forces of demand and supply. There are arrays of competitive prices on tomato, onion, sweet pepper, fresh pepper, and chilli pepper within and across the rural and urban markets in the state. This study therefore evaluates the market integration of the selected vegetables between rural and urban markets in Oyo state.

Material and Methods

The secondary time series data prices on the selected vegetables were obtained

from Oyo State agricultural development programme. The secondary time series price data contain monthly retail price per kilogramme of fresh tomato from the selected rural and urban retail markets of the state from 2003–2011. The choice of fresh tomato, fresh pepper, sweet pepper, chilli pepper and onion is due to their importance in the diet and the daily variation in prices.

Co-integration technique Co-integration can be regarded as the empirical counterpart of the theoretical

notion of long-run equilibrium relationship. Firstly, variables have to be pre-tested for stationarity. Stationarity means that the marginal distribution of the process does not change with time.

∆Pit= Pt-1+∑ 1∆Pt-1+lit (1) A series is said to be integrated of order ‘d’, I(d), if it has to be differenced ‘d’

times to produce a stationary series. Once stationarity is obtained, variables are then tested for co-integration or long-run relationship. Two series are co-integrated of order (1,1), if the individual series are I(1) and a linear combination of them called the co-integrating regression is I(0). After getting co-integrated relationship,

Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu and Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi 198

the residuals from the equilibrium regression can be used to estimate the error correction model. Two or more variables are said to be co-integrated if each is individually non-stationary (i.e. has one or more unit roots), but there exists a linear combination of the variables that is stationary. After the stationarity test, we tested for co-integration between market price series that exhibited stationarity of the same order (Johansen, 1988). The Johansen test allows for the existence of more than one co-integrating relationship (vector) and the speed of modification towards the long-term equilibrium is easily determined (Bakucs and Ferto, 2005). The two variable systems were modelled as a vector auto-regression (VAR) as follows:

= ∆ +∑ Xt-1+ Xt-k+ (2) where = an n x 1 vector containing the series of interest (tomato spatial price series), τ and π = matrices of parameters, k = number of lags, and should be adequately large enough both to capture the short-run dynamics of the underlying VAR and to produce normally distributed white noise residuals.

Test for causality Granger-causal relationship exists in a group of co-integrated series (Chirwa,

2000). The causality test is represented by the error correction equation as follows: ∆Pt=∑ i∆Pl(t-1)+∑ i∆Pj(t-1)+ℓt (3)

where m and n are numbers of lags determined by Akaike information criterion. Rejection of the null hypothesis (by a suitable F-test) that αh = 0 for h = 1,

2,...n and = 0 indicates that Granger causality runs in both markets and, then prices are determined by a simultaneous field-back mechanism (SFM). This is the phenomenon of bi-directional causality. If the Granger causality runs one way, it is called unidirectional Granger causality and the market which leads the other is tagged as the exogenous market.

Index of market connection (IMC) The index of market concentration was used to measure price relationship

between integrated markets. Following Oladapo and Momoh (2007) approach, the actual rural price is given by the equation below.

= °+ + ( )+ + (4)

= urban or reference price = rural price

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R

= consta = coeffi =coeffic = coeffi

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Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu and Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi 202

Stationarity tests of the selected vegetables

The findings revealed that the acceptance of the null hypothesis of non-stationarity could be achieved at the probability of one percent level of significance (Table 1). Although the null hypotheses of non-stationarity were accepted for the prices of onion, chilli pepper and fresh pepper in their level form for rural markets, they were rejected at first difference. This conforms with the findings of Chirwa (2001), Yusuf et al. (2006) and Adeoye et al. (2011) that commodity prices could be stationary at first difference. However, urban market prices of fresh tomato and sweet pepper were stationary in their level form. Therefore, the test of co-integration was applied to fresh tomato and sweet pepper price series data which were integrated in the same order I(1) and did not have a unit root. Table 1. Results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for the selected vegetables in Oyo State. Market ADF

(level form) Remark ADF (first differences) Remark

Rural tomato market -3.45 Non-stationary -7.59** Stationary Urban tomato market -2.89* Stationary -13.71** Stationary Rural onion market -3.14 Non-stationary -10.38** Stationary Urban onion market -1.49 Non-stationary -11.01** Stationary Rural chilli pepper market -0.62 Non-stationary -8.83** Stationary Urban chilli pepper market -1.01 Non-stationary -9.31** Stationary Rural sweet pepper market -3.37 Non-stationary -10.32** Stationary Urban sweet pepper market -4.01* Stationary -7.98** Stationary Rural fresh pepper market -3.39 Non-stationary -11.83** Stationary Urban fresh pepper market -3.78 Non-stationary -11.03** Stationary ** 1% level of significance, * 5% level of significance.

Co-integration test for the prices of the selected vegetables

The co-integration tests for market integration are to test whether there is a statistical significant linear relationship between different series data. The maximum Eigen values revealed that all five market pairs investigated were co-integrated at five percent level of significance. The null hypotheses of co-integration relationships were rejected at five percent significance level for all the selected vegetables in their various market pairs but sweet pepper (p<0.01) (Table 2). The trace test showed that the market pairs for all the selected vegetables were co-integrated in order (1,1) at five percent level of significance. This suggests that there is a linear long-run relationship between the rural and urban price series.

Rural-urban price transmission and market integration of horticultural crops 203

Table 2. Results of Johansen maximum likelihood test for the rural and urban markets of the selected vegetables in Oyo State.

Market pairs Eigen value

Trace statistics

Critical value(5%) Probability Hypothesized no. of

co-integrating equation

RMPFT-UMPFT 0.16 0.03

22.06 3.58

15.49* 3.84

0.00 0.06

None* At most 1

RMPO-UMPO 0.15 0.01

18.11 1.31

15.49* 3.84

0.02 0.25

None* At most 1

RMPCP-UMPCP 0.13 0.00

15.96 0.59

15.49* 3.84

0.04 0.44

None* At most 1

RMPSP-UMPSP 0.14 0.04

20.78 4.28

15.49* 3.84

0.01 0.03

None* At most 1*

RMPFP-UMPFP 0.31 0.02

42.26 2.97

15.49* 3.84

0.00 0.08

None* At most 1

*Represents the rejection of null hypothesis at 5% significance level. RMPFT - Rural market price of fresh tomato, UMPPFT - Urban market price of fresh tomato; RMPO - Rural market price of onion, UMPO - Urban market price of onion; RMPCP - Rural market price of chilli pepper, UMPCP - Urban market price of chilli pepper; RMPSP - Rural market price of sweet pepper, UMPSP - Urban market price of sweet pepper; RMPFP - Rural market price of fresh pepper, UMPFP - Urban market price of fresh pepper.

Granger causality test for the selected vegetables

Five market links accepted their respective null hypothesis of no Granger causality while five other market links exhibited bi-directional Granger causality or a simultaneous feedback relationship (Table 3). Table 3. Granger causality test for the selected vegetable prices in Oyo state. Variables Observation F-statistics Probability

Urban fresh tomato does not Granger cause rural fresh tomato. 106 1.71153 0.18579 Rural fresh tomato does not Granger cause urban fresh tomato 106 3.40943 0.03691* Urban onion does not Granger cause rural onion 106 4.84647 0.00978** Rural onion does not Granger cause urban onion 106 1.81693 0.16780 Urban chilli pepper does not Granger cause rural chilli pepper 106 7.50741 0.00091** Rural chilli pepper does not Granger cause urban chilli pepper 106 1.39276 0.25312 Urban sweet pepper does not Granger cause rural sweet pepper 106 6.78939 0.00171** Rural sweet pepper does not Granger cause urban sweet pepper 106 1.19340 0.30743 Urban fresh pepper does not Granger cause rural fresh pepper 106 1.05844 0.35081 Rural fresh pepper does not Granger cause urban fresh pepper 106 14.5939 2.7E-06**

Source: Authors’ computation of secondary data collected from OYSADEP (2003–2011). ** 1% significant, * 5% significant.

Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu and Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi 204

Urban markets for onions, chilli pepper and sweet pepper had strong exogeneity over their respective rural markets. On the other hand, rural markets for fresh tomatoes and fresh pepper had strong exogeneity over urban markets for fresh tomatoes and fresh pepper. Thus, the markets were spatially linked by trade with urban markets being the leading markets for onion, chilli pepper and sweet pepper, while rural markets were the leading markets for fresh tomato and fresh pepper. Therefore, there was market integration between rural and urban market of the selected vegetables suggesting that price changes in one market exhibit identical price response in the other market. There was also an adequate free flow of goods between the rural and urban markets and they are linked by efficient arbitrage.

Indices of market concentration (IMC) for the selected vegetables

Results revealed that the indices of market concentration (IMC) for onion, chilli pepper, sweet pepper and fresh pepper were less than one indicating high short-run market integration (Table 4). Therefore, changes in rural market price caused immediate changes in urban market price for all the selected items except for fresh tomato (IMC = 1.37). The low short-run market integration of tomato markets suggests that rural market prices of fresh tomato did not account for immediate changes in urban market price of fresh tomato. Table 4. Indices of market concentration (IMC).

Market pairs Selected vegetable R

2

AdjustedR

2

IMC value Level of classification

Rural and urban market Fresh tomato 0.76 0.75 1.37 Low short-run market integration

Rural and urban market Onion 0.22 0.20 0.54 High short-run market integration

Rural and urban market Chilli pepper 0.78 0.77 0.15 High short-run market integration

Rural and urban market Sweet pepper 0.14 0.12 0.86 High short-run market integration

Rural and urban market Fresh pepper 0.63 0.62 -1.16 High short-run market integration

Source: Authors’ computation of secondary data collected from OYSADEP (2003–2011).

Conclusion

This study assessed the price behaviour of the selected vegetables in their various rural and urban markets respectively. Results showed that market integration existed between rural and urban market of the selected vegetables with the urban markets being the leading markets. It is expedient for the government to establish market information centres that will help to facilitate adequate communication and transmission of information for rural fresh pepper market, rural

Rural-urban price transmission and market integration of horticultural crops 205

fresh tomato market, urban chilli pepper market, urban onion market and urban sweet pepper market. The study also showed that rural and urban tomato markets were not integrated in the short-run with the exception of fresh tomato indicating that rural market prices of fresh tomato were not accountable for short-run changes in urban market price of fresh tomato. Thus, there is the need to solve problems that could cause an immediate increase in urban market prices such as poor transportation and the activities of middlemen.

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Received: August 5, 2013 Accepted: October 14, 2013

Rural-urban price transmission and market integration of horticultural crops 207

TRANSMISIJA CENA I TRŽIŠNA INTERGRACIJA ODABRANIH HORTIKULTURNIH BILJAKA U SELU I GRADU

U DRŽAVI OJO U NIGERIJI

Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu* i Ganiyat Omotayo Alimi

Odsek za agroekonomiju, Fakultet za poljoprivredu i šumarstvo, Univerzitet u Ibadanu, Nigerija

R e z i m e

Većina poljoprivrednih tržista u afričkim državama je neefikasna i slabo

integrisana. Stoga, ovo istraživanje ocenjuje nivo integracije tržišta i analizu trendova odabranih povrtarskih kultura u državi Ojo. Takođe, ono identifikuje vodeće tržište između ruralnih i urbanih tržišta u državi Ojo. Sekundarni podaci o cenama svežeg paradajza, crnog luka, ljute paprike, slatke paprike i sveže paprike (2003–2011) su dobijeni iz Programa poljoprivrednog razvoja države Ojo i analizirani su primenom analiza trendova, proširenog Dickey-Fuller-ovog (ADF) testa, Grejndžerovog testa uzročnosti i indeksa koncentracije tržišta. Rezultati su pokazali da su cene crnog luka, ljute paprike i sveže paprike nestabilne u svojim različitim oblicima, ali stabilne u prvoj razlici; dok su cene svežeg paradajza, odnosno slatke paprike na urbanim tržištima bile stabilne u svom obliku pri verovatnoći od 5%. Pokazatelji koncentracije tržišta za crni luk, slatku papriku, svežu papriku i ljutu papriku su bili manji od jedan, sugerišući visoku kratkoročnu integraciju tržišta, dok je sveži paradajz postigao nisku kratkoročnu tržišnu integraciju. Dalje, urbana tržišta su bila vodeća tržišta za crni luk, ljutu papriku i slatku papriku, dok su ruralna tržišta bila vodeća za sveži paradajz i svežu papriku.

Ključne reči: ruralan, urban, integracija tržišta, začini, cene.

Primljeno: 5. avgusta 2013. Odobreno: 14. oktobra 2013.

*Autor za kontakt: e-mail: jkemmyade@yahoo.co.uk