Olli big data_andai

LITTLE Issues withbig Data and AI

Jim Isaak

2015 SSIT Vice President

2010 Computer Society President

Nov. 2017 v2

Society on Social Implications of Technology

What’s coming?

A quick history of how big data is, and why the 21st century is not the same as the previous millennium

And then some of the “So What?”

– Challenges the public needs to consider

– That technologists need to consider

– That Policy makers need to consider

– But first, a word from our Sponsor:

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Impacts of Technology on Society

www.IEEESSIT.org

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When I was a boy … (1972)

Computers typically had 32k bytes of RAM

And 2.5 MB disk drives

And took forever to do things we consider common place now

Moore’s Law – double in density/2 yrs(speed, and ½ price)

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But now…

Intel’s latest “desktop” chip is 4GHz(1,000,000,000,000 faster than my 1970’s system)

Consider a person walking at 4 mph

now 6x the speed of light

My local storage has gone from two novels

to the Library of Congress

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Bytes per (8bits):

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Item Bytes

Short novel 1 Megabyte1,000,000

A pickup truckFilled with books

1 Gigabyte1,000,000,000

The Library of Congress – print collection

10 Terabytes10,000,000,000,000

Note: storage is measured in Bytes,

Communications in bits …

“Broadband” network typically 500 kilobits and up

50,000 bytes – or 20 seconds per book


A comparison in human terms

It takes me six seconds to get an ingredient from the frig (load from RAM)

(Ideally a single cycle for a processor)

For a 4GHz processor, Rotational delay2ms => 1.5 years!

For seek time plus rotation delay is4ms => 4.5 yrs and 100ms =>77 yrs

How many items can I get from the frig while waiting for one from “the store”

(and don’t even consider net latency!)

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The new challenge/limitation

Watts –

– Power requirements

– And BTU’s of heat generated by thousands of processors/disk drives

It’s why Google, Amazon, et al are placing data centers near hydro power & cooling options ..or at least cheap power

And – how are you going to use that much stuff?

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An example – Bluffdale Utah, NSA

65 MegaWatts(1 MW – 600+ homes)(200MW Kennecott Utah Copper)

Aug. 2016 water use6.6M Gallons for cooling

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Est 3-12 Exabytes3,000,000,000,000,000

(i.e. one 64bit processor of

address space)


The 21st century realization(Google, et al)

1. All data has value – and you don’t know what will be useful in the future(Buffdale center: storing pocket litter)

2. Critically missing in traditional systemsfault tolerance, massive scalabilitymalleable schema’s, flexible queries

=> Community Development e.g. Hadoop

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Going Viral(getting Real- Time)

“Google Flu Trends appeared to detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7–10 days before conventional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance systems” Clinical Infectious Diseases (2009) doi: 10.1086/630200

Simple concept: track search trends relate to symptoms, relate to location, identify potential hot spots. – this specific concept has been picked up with more focused algorithms applied

The Google experience did not work as well as might be desired– big data hubris

An associate of mine was researching social media streams to track potential ‘hot spots’ for civil unrest, terrorism, etc. She now works for NSA

….. Now Trending….11/20/201711


Patients Like Me

“We're unleashing the power of data for good by empowering people to take control of their health because we believe real-world evidence can change the healthcare system”

Can trigger “instant” medical studies based on 400,000+ participants with 2500+ medical conditions

Lithium, Bi-Polar and ALS – 16 patients in journal article – but PLM found 69 in a day.

https://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_heywood_the_big_idea_my_brother_inspired

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https://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_heywood_the_big_idea_my_brother_inspired


Now let’s see “Applications”

Summer 2016 CEO Cambridge Analytica(11 minutes)

CEO of Cambridge Analytica March 17(30 minutes)

Composite from these two presentations (25 Min) (not online)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8Dd5aVXLCc&t=86s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bG5ps5KdDo

CEO_CambridgeAnalytica.mp4


Election 2016

Democratic DB – every voter, likelihood of voting, feedback from surveys on candidate preferences … do everything you can to get the expected supporters out.

Trump “Project Alamo” w/ Cambridge Analytica: Facebook “psych” survey + profiles + external data on 220,000,000 Americans w/4000+ data points each “voter registration records, gun ownership records, credit card purchase histories, and internet account identities”=>personally targeted ads to either:

– Gain support (funding, voting)

– Suppress turnout of targeted groups

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What Data Sources?

Facebook profile

OCEAN like personality test

Credit Cards

Credit Record

Browser Searches

Email “terms”

Church attendance

CATV viewing

Car registration

Home ownership

Magazine subscriptions

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“and the beat goes on…”


OCEAN personality analysis

Openness, which refers to how readily an individual will

take on new experiences or acceptance of non-conventional ideas, levels of creativity …

Conscientiousness, which applies to attention to

detail, vigilance, organization and a desire to complete a

Extraversion, which relates to assertiveness,

enjoyment of human interactions and risk-taking.

Agreeableness, which tends to be indicative of co-

operation, kindness and consideration for others.

Neuroticism, which relays levels of anxiety, ability to

deal with stress and maintaining calmness under pressure.

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“They [the Trump campaign] were using40–50,000 different variants of ad every day that were continuously measuring responses and then adapting and evolving based on that response,” – Martin Moore, director of Kings College’s Centre for the

Study of Media, Communication and Power, told The

Guardian in early December.

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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/04/google-democracy-truth-internet-search-facebook


Predictive analysis

Predictive analysis: finding and quantifying hidden patterns in the data using complex mathematical models that can be used to predict future outcomes.

“Amazon customers like you ….”

Think “Minority Report” … without the prescient mediums

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Society on Social Implications of Technology11/20/201719


From the man who “Liked” OCEAN

Dr. Michal Kosinski found that just a few facebook “Likes” could match you to your OCEAN profile with high probability. 3 Million Facebook Profiles (1/1000)

10+ and you know a personality as well as their co-workers

100+ family/friends

250+ you know them better than their spouse

• Michael’s Keynote on Privacy

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NesTWiKfpD0&t=2s


Every friend you “like”

Sexual orientation 88%

Gender, political views, race (95%)

Age, IQ,

Birds of a feather – friends like friends

∑ trivial data points => non-trivial

– Facebook + credit-card + search…

Also language use …

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To summarize

Your face may disclose:Humans can do gender, age, introvert, …

Political views, sexual orientation

Gay, liberal, atheism – capital crimes some places

5 pictures sufficient to get ‘gay’ at 92%

Also captured:

– Location data, continuous

– Sensors – heart rate

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I fed a sample from my web page into the Cambridge tool

Test 1 – 10yr old text

22 yr old male

89% liberal

69% hard working

19% contemplative

51% team oriented

22% laid back

60% leader potential

INTJ “Jungian style”

Test 2 - Recent text

30 year old male

38% conservative

67% hardworking

27% contemplative

35% competitive

22% laid back

34% leader potential

ISTJ style

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Save the Rhinos

Noseong Park, Edoardo Serra, andV.S. Subrahmanian document their predictive analytics software to save rhinosIEEE Intelligent Systems, August 2015

Tracking, and then predicting rhino movement, and poacher movement can help target drone and ranger patrols to save more rhinos

Ends with the caveat that your rhinos may differ

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What if?

We used all of the Cambridge Analyticaand other available data …

And analyzed which persons were most likely to:

– Commit suicide (most common form of gun violence)

– Attack a church congregation

– Initiate a terrorist attack

“Subject 47 has bought 3 assault rifles in the last week and 300 clips of ammo”

What would/should we do?

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AI – coming of age

Less than “the movies” view, Butmore than folks expect

Past the tipping point, so it’s hard to see where it can lead

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“Alexa …”


Recent in AI: Deep Learning

Watson has spoken

– It’s not just a game show any more

– It’s natural language in context

– It’s open ended responses to open ended questions (Siri, Hello Barbie etc.)

And the AI folks are on board

– Deep Learning to go beyond understanding data to modeling “you”

Prof. Pedro Domingo’s , UW in his book “The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World”

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http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B012271YB2/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?ie=UTF8&btkr=1


Open Source Tools Emerging

For big data manage

Analytics

AI methods

And emerging open-data sources

“Data wants to be free”

=> Letting a thousand flowers bloom

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Bit Rot

Vint Cerf, “father of the Internet”raises the concern

Consider the media (floppy disc), and the associated reading device(s), and the encoding technique (PC-DOS files in ASCII with data for WordStar) and the required environment (DOS 2.0)

Will we be able to access the data?

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Provenance

Credibility – or is it just the number of times the lie is re-told?

– This is one rationale for ‘citations’ in academic literature

– And for “reproducibility” in the scientific method … But

For Big Data can there be quality control, authority, chain of evidence, credible source, validation..???

There will be “data jamming” attacks

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The Right to be Forgotten

1998 the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia published an announcement regarding the forced sale of properties

A property belonged to Mario Costeja González, who was named

In 2009, Costeja contacted the newspaper to complain that when his name was entered in the Google search engine it led to the announcements

In 2010 …

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Vanguardia


Jurisdictions

He took his concerns to the Spanish Agency of Data Protection

From there it went to the EU Advocate General

Then to the EU Court of Justice

Google’s online form for EU citizens or EFTA nationals to request the removal of links if the data linked is "inadequate, irrelevant or no longer relevant, or excessive in relation to the purposes for which they were processed“ 2014

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POP Quiz

Can you name two politicians who would like some of their history “forgotten”

Or more challenging, can you name one who would not like this to happen?

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The Proxy Did It!

O’Neil, Cathy; Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy; Random House, 2016 (also Discover Mag, Oct 2016 issue)

“models and algorithms encode human prejudice”

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E-Scores vs FICO

Fair Isaac credit scores are based on YOUR personal financial history,But cannot be used in sales/marketing(just hiring, promotions, loans, etc.)

eScores are proxies for FICO in some ways, matching you into “buckets” and affecting YOUR job, credit, even your time on hold to get service

“e-scores are arbitrary, unaccountable, unregulated, and often unfair” (O’Neil)

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Time on hold????? ???

Managing call center traffic

(“please dial 1 if you are rich, dial 2 to go on hold, dial 3 to talk to someone in India, and 4 if you just would like to dial in more numbers.”)

Ditto for web credit card web sites – before you even “look” your browsing and purchasing patterns are being evaluated.

These may not be your Friend

“People Like You…” (zip, job, search…)

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e_Scores to “Score” ?

CreditScoreDating.com “at least the customers know what they are getting into and why” (O’Neil)

Job Applicants are “researched” on the web BEFORE any contact from the company – eScores, Facebook, etc.

“The law stipulates employers must alert job

seekers when credit issues disqualify them…”

(O’Neil) Right….

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Show of Hands:

Your wait time should be based on e-score proxies --- folks like you….

Your wait time should be based onspecific knowledge about you …(“tends to complain a lot, let him wait a bit longer, play the subliminal message tape”)

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How Big is BIG?

Microsoft and U. Washington have developed a system to store binary data in DNA sequences.

– All of the data on the 2016 Internet could fit into a shoe box

– Much lower energy, less risk of bit rot, but … right now, real slow read/write times

Oct 28, 2016 WSJ insert “Fast Forward Tech”

• Memristor’s (HP/SanDisk term)/ReRAMNot this high of density, but significantly faster, denser and lower power than SDRAM.

Jan 2017, IEEE Consumer Electronics Magazine

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Opting Out

https://www.privacyrights.org/

http://www.stopdatamining.me/opt-out-list/

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From the SSIT Blog

An Asian firm, “Deep Knowledge” has appointed a virtual director to their Board. In this case it is a construct designed to detect trends that the human directors might miss.

One suspects that Apple might want a model of Steve Jobs around for occasional consultation, if not back in control again

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2632920/Would-orders-ROBOT-Artificial-intelligence-world-s-company-director-Japan.html


AI and Ethics

The Partnership on AI Ethicshttp://www.partnershiponai.org/

IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook

IEEE Standards – Autonomous Systems Ethicshttp://standards.ieee.org/news/2016/ieee_autonomous_systems.html

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http://standards.ieee.org/news/2016/ieee_autonomous_systems.html


Resources

http://www.bigbrotherawards.org/(European – Privacy International)

“Saving Rhinos with Predictive Analytics” IEEE

Computer Society “Edge”

IEEE Computer Magazine, April 2016Special Issue on Big Data

http://bigdata.ieee.org/https://sites.google.com/site/io/underneath-the-covers-at-google-current-systems-and-future-directions

https://applymagicsauce.com/ Cambridge Univ. Evaluation tool

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http://www.bigbrotherawards.org/

http://www.computer.org/csdl/mags/ex/2015/04/mex2015040086-abs.html

http://bigdata.ieee.org/

https://sites.google.com/site/io/underneath-the-covers-at-google-current-systems-and-future-directions

https://applymagicsauce.com/


SSITIEEE’s Forum for Academic, Practical and Policy dialog

on the Impact of Technology on Society

Engineers and Technologists who care about how

their products, discoveries, and services will

affect humanity

• Conferences world wide

• Quarterly publication

• Ongoing social media interactions

• Perennial issues to consider as technology happens

Major topics include:

Privacy, Security, Health, Ethics, Equity, Quality of Life

As affected by technology such as:

NanoTech, Genomics, networks, computing, RFID, drones

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Social Media – Public Dialog

Blog and comments

LinkedIn Group

Facebook Group

YouTube Channel

Twitter

WWW.IEEESSIT.ORG

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http://www.ieeessit.org/


Questions?

Answers???

Thank You

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Alpha:the first step towards Omega

1992: DEC introduces Alpha, the first 64 bit commercial computer chip …

64 bits can directly address 16EB (Exabytes, 16 Billion GB) of “real” memory .. And Alpha was the fastest chip – so could seriously index lots of data

The Alpha App: Altavista – 1995 the first web index

1997- IBM introduces 16GB disk array

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Donald Knuth, Stanford

Volume 3 (first ed. 1973)

Sorting and Searching, Second Edition (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley, 1998), xiv+780pp.+foldout.ISBN 0-201-89685-0

Advisor and mentor to two students:Larry Page and Sergey Brin decided to implement a full version – 1998They call it “Google”

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A side note on performance

Computer cycle times from MIPS to GIPS (instructions per second)

Disk rotation latency (half turn average)

Seek Time (1/3 of disc surface average)

Solid State Drives change the game again

Add DNA and Intel’s new chip 3Dxxx?

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4,000 RPM 7.14 ms 7 million Instructions

15,000 RPM 2 ms 2 million Instructions

100ms 100 million instructions

4ms 4 million instructions


Emerging “Tricks”

For highly compact storage (not fast)

DNA tools are being developedmassive storage – slow access

• Intel 3-D “Optane” memory:

• Pushing “flash ram” capabilities into higher speed, more dense devices

• Data tools are now doing “memory first” operations, expecting terabytes of RAM

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Data for Good “movement”

DataKind.org

– Harnessing the power of data science in the service of humanity

– DataKind is a unique way to build your skills and network with top data scientists around the world

The Data for Good Exchange is part of a long Bloomberg tradition of advocacy for using data science and human capital to solve problems at the core of society

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Olli big data_andai

Data & Analytics

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