Ola M. Johannessen Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen, Norway Arctic Climate –...
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Ola M. JohannessenNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Bergen, Norway
Arctic Climate – Present and Future
20 September 2012Longyearbyen, Svalbard
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Onozaki, Journal of Health Science, 2009
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Onozaki, Journal of Health Science, 2009
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Ice concentration
Johannessen et al. 2004
Climate-model simulation of ice concentration due to CO2 doubling
80% decrease
Summer
Sea ice:
2005
Winter
20% decrease
2085
2005 2085
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The simulated surface circulation between 1970 and 2000
Gao, … , Johannessen, 2009
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The simulated surface circulation between 2050 and 2080 under the global warming senario
Gao, … , Johannessen, 2009
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Temperature
Johannessen et al. 2004
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Annual temperature/ice extent
Modified from Johannessen et al. 2004
70-90oN annual SAT
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• The background document was produced in 2005 by the EuroGOOS Arctic Task Team
• Arctic ROOS is a contribution to the IPY project no. 379: "IPY Operational Oceanography for the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas" coordinated by Prof. Ola M. Johannessen, endorsed by IPY 2006.
• Arctic ROOS was established in December 2007 at the foundation meeting in Luleå, hosted by EuroGOOS and SMHI
• S. Sandven from Nansen Center in Norway was elected chair and hosts the secretariat of Arctic ROOS
What is Arctic ROOS ?
An association of 16 member institutions from 9 European countries with the aim to foster and develop Arctic components of Global Ocean Observing System
http://arctic-roos.org/
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Monitoring ice concentration from microwave satellites
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
15%
water
land
TOTAL ICE COVER = MULTI-YEAR ICE + FIRST-YEAR ICE
http://arctic-roos.org/
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http://arctic-roos.org/
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http://arctic-roos.org/
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http://arctic-roos.org/
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Arctic Sea Ice Area: yearly 1979 - 2008
Johannessen and Ivanova 2011 (unpublished)
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The ice breaker Gergiy Sedov In drift 1937-40
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Kwok and Rothrock, 2009
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Cryosat-2
Launched – April 2010; Altitude - 717 km ; Inclination - 92 deg; Repeat cycles - 369 days with 30 day sub-cycle
SIRAL – SAR/Interferometric Radar Altimeter (13.6 ГГц)Resolution 250 х 7 000 m
CryoSat-2 is orbiting Earth at an unusually high inclination, reaching latitudes of 88° north and south.
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Cryosat-2 ice thickness mapThe sea-ice thickness map for January and February 2011 shows thicker, rough, multi-year ice north of Canada and Greenland, stretching to the North Pole. Elsewhere in the Arctic the map reveals thinner, first year ice.
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a) Location of 689 ice thickness and freeboard measurements during the Sever aircraft landings on the Arctic sea ice in 1980s, where colors indicate thickness of level ice on runways; b) histogram of ice thickness on level ice (on runway) and on characteristic ice types around the landing sites (off runway), c) a scatterplot of ice thickness versus ice freeboard measurements on level ice.
Alexandrov, …., Johannessen 2010
a b
c
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Arctic Sept Sea Ice Extent
Stroeve et al. 2007
Red: observedBlack: model esemble
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All six models show rapid decline in the ice extent and reach ice-free summer before the end of the 21st century
Wang and Overland, 2009
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Wang and Overland, 2009
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Green: observed, black: modeled, blue: B1, red: A2, shading +/- 1 s.d.
Annual Sea Ice Extent
Johannessen AOSL, 2008
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Johannessen 2012 (unpublished)
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Johannessen 2012 (unpublished)
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Conclusions
• Summer ice may disappear when CO2 concentration is 500ppmv
• Today the CO2 concentration is increasing with 2.5 ppmv pr. year
• If this increase continues the summer ice will disappear in about 40 years, ie in 2050
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