OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation · OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation...

OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation

Committee for the Common Organisation

of Agricultural Markets

25 October 2017

World Oilseeds Production

EU oilseeds & protein crops areas & production (2017/18)

ANNEX

EU oilseeds balance sheets (seeds, meals & oils)

Content

World Oilseeds Market

World oilseeds - production

Source: USDA

476

573577

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17(est)

2017/18(fcst)

ALL

(mili

ion

to

nn

es)

Sun

, ra

pe

& s

oy

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)

Sunflower Rapeseed Soybeans All (7 crops)

m/m forecast changes

Oilseeds ↓

Soybeans ↓

Rapeseed ↓

Sunflower ↓

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

Soybean Rapeseed Sunflowerseed Cottonseed Peanut Other

Mill

ion t

onnes

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Source : USDA (October 2017)

Oilseeds world production million

tonnes

5 years

averagelast MY

current

forecast

previous

forecast

% vs

average

% vs

last MY

% vs

last

forecast

Copra 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 1.6 2.4 0.0

Cottonseed 42.1 39.0 44.3 44.1 5.2 13.5 0.4

Palm kernel 16.1 16.8 18.0 18.0 12.3 7.4 0.0

Peanut 41.2 42.6 43.0 42.9 4.2 0.9 0.2

Rapeseed 69.5 70.3 71.9 72.1 3.4 2.2 -0.4

Soybean 307.2 351.3 347.9 348.4 13.2 -1.0 -0.2

Sunflowerseed 40.7 47.6 46.3 47.4 13.8 -2.6 -2.2

Oilseeds 522.3 573.1 577.0 578.6 10.5 0.7 -0.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

USA Brazil Argentina China India Paraguay Canada

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2013/ 14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/ 18Source : USDA (October 2017)

Soybeans world production by country

million

tonnes

5 years

averagelast MY

current

forecast

previous

forecast

% vs

last

forecast

% vs

last MY

% vs

average

USA 101.0 116.9 120.6 120.6 0.0 3.1 19.4

Brazil 95.3 114.1 107.0 107.0 0.0 -6.2 12.3

Argentina 55.7 57.8 57.0 57.0 0.0 -1.4 2.3

China 12.4 12.9 14.2 14.0 1.4 10.1 14.9

India 9.8 11.5 10.0 10.0 0.0 -13.0 2.5

Paraguay 8.9 10.7 9.4 9.4 0.0 -11.9 5.8

Canada 5.9 6.5 8.2 8.2 0.0 26.9 39.8

World 323.1 347.9 347.9 348.4 -0.2 0.0 7.7

Rapeseed world production by country

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

EU28 Canada China India Australia

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fcast)Source : USDA (October 2017)

million

tonnes

5 years

averagelast MY

current

forecast

previous

forecast

% vs

last

forecast

% vs

last MY

% vs

average

EU 28 21.6 20.5 22.0 22.0 0.2 7.1 1.9

Canada 17.4 19.6 19.9 19.9 0.0 1.5 14.6

China 14.3 13.5 13.1 13.1 0.0 -3.0 -8.6

India 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 0.0 1.5 14.0

Australia 3.7 4.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 -27.4 -18.6

World 69.5 70.3 71.9 72.1 -0.4 2.2 3.5

Sunflowerseed world production by country

0.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

Ukraine Russia EU28 Argentina China

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fcast)Source : USDA (October 2017)

million

tonnes

5 years

averagelast MY

current

forecast

previous

forecast

% vs

last

forecast

% vs

last MY

% vs

average

Ukraine 11.6 15.2 13.5 14.0 -3.6 -11.2 16.6

Russia 9.1 10.9 11.0 11.5 -4.3 1.3 20.2

EU28 8.3 8.6 8.5 8.5 0.0 -0.9 2.6

Argentina 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.0 0.0 17.6 38.6

China 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.8 11.9

World 40.7 47.6 46.3 47.4 -2.2 -2.6 13.8

43

60

70

5457

62

78 78

95 96

4 4 6 5 4 35 5

812

212

261 264

240

269

283

320

314

351348

221

238

252

258

261275

302

314

330

344

40

95

150

206

261

316

0

25

50

75

100

125

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est.

2017proj.

mill

ion to

nne

s

mill

ion to

nne

s

World… of which US World Production World Consumption

Source: USDA October

Soybeans world production, consumption and stocks

Soybeans production forecast by country

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

2017/18June 2017

2017/18July 2017

2017/18Aug 2017

2017/18Sept 2017

2017/18October 2017

'mill

ion

to

nn

es

USA

Brazil

Argentina

China

CAN - Paraguay - India

2017/18

Rapeseed production forecast by country

4.135

3.000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

2017/18June 2017

2017/18July 2017

2017/18Aug 2017

2017/18Sept 2017

2017/18October 2018

mill

ion

to

nn

es

EU 28

Canada

China

India

2017/18

Sunflowerseed production forecast by country

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18May 2017

2017/18June 2017

2017/18July 2017

2017/18August 2017

2017/18Sept 2017

2017/18Oct 2017

mill

ion

to

nn

es

EU 28

Russia

Argentina

Ukraine

2017/18

China

Global oilseeds production: key messages

Total oilseeds

Slightly revised down (-2m t m/m); still record production forecast (577m t; +11% vs 5 year average).

Soyabeans

• Forecast slightly adjusted m/m; second highest production (348m t; +8% vs 5 year average)

• US production at record level (121m t; harvest ongoing)

• Production in South America lower y/y (plantings ongoing)

Rapeseed

• Slightly revised down but still record level production (72m t; +5% vs 5 year average)

• No change m/m for the main producing countries

Sunflower

• Decrease of 1m t m/m; global production close to record (47m t; +14% vs 5 year average)

• Decrease in UKR and RU (-4% m/m) but production still higher than average (+17% and +20%)

World oilseeds – export prices (fob)

377

426

386

340

380

420

460

Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

$/t Oilseeds- monthly average

Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (EU)

€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t Argentina - Up River 323 380 2% 1% -8% -2%

Brazil - Paranagua 331 389 3% 1% -13% -7%

US Gulf 323 380 2% 0% -8% -2%

Ukraine 305 359 4% 3% -12% -6%

Australia 382 449 -2% -3% -6% 0%

Canada 358 421 0% -2% -2% 5%

EU (Rouen) 361 425 -1% -3% -10% -3%

Ukraine 364 428 2% 0% 3% 1%

EU (Bordeaux) 328 385 0% -2% -11% -4%

Ukraine 315 370 2% 0% -12% -5%

Export prices FOB17 Oct 2017 m/m variation y/y variation

soybeans

sunflower

rapeseed

Futures prices

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 t

$/t

Soybeans CME (60 days - $/t) Rapeseed MATIF (60 days - EUR/t)

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

€/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 50 t)

IGC

AUG'17: 364

NOV'17: 365

AUG'18: 368

AUG'17: 368

MAY'18: 375

AUG'18: 357

Oilseeds / cereals price ratio

1.0

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.4

4.0

01/01/08 01/01/09 01/01/10 01/01/11 01/01/12 01/01/13 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17

US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT)18/10/2017: 2.82

EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF)18/10/2017: 2.26

Global oilseeds prices: key messages

Moderate volitility over the last month for the three oilseeds

Pressure on prices:

Ample world supplies

Confortable stocks level (even if US stock decreased to 11.2m t)

Support on prices:

Strong world demand

Weather concerns - uncertainties about plantings in South America

(ARG – too wet; BZ: too dry)

y/y price evolution : soy and sunflower cheaper & rapeseed stable (however more expensive in Canada)

Oilseeds and protein crops

at EU level

EU Oilseeds EU OILSEEDS AREA

AVG 5 yrs 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 %change %change

Million ha trimmed September 2017 October 2017 2016/17 5yrs trimmed

Rapeseed 6.6 6.5 6.81 6.78 3.6 3.2

Sunflower 4.3 4.2 4.35 4.30 3.7 1.1

Soja 0.6 0.8 0.93 0.92 11.2 48.5

Linseed 0.1 0.1 0.07 0.07 -19.9 4.2

TOTAL 11.5 11.6 12.16 12.07 4.0 4.8

Sources : DG AGRI G.4

EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION


Million tonnes trimmed September 2017 October 2017 2016/17 5yrs trimmed

Rapeseed 21.0 20.1 22.3 22.3 10.9 6.3

Sunflower 8.5 8.5 9.2 9.0 6.4 5.5

Soja 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 7.9 48.6

Linseed 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 7.4

TOTAL 31.4 31.2 34.3 34.1 9.4 8.5


EU Rapeseed

EU Rapeseed RapeseedProduction AVG 5 yrs 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 %change %change


TOTAL EU 20.96 20.10 22.29 22.29 10.9 6.3

France 5.18 4.74 5.48 5.51 16.3 6.5

Germany 5.21 4.58 4.71 4.71 2.8 -9.6

Poland 2.53 2.22 2.66 2.66 19.9 5.1

UK 2.38 1.78 1.89 1.89 6.6 -20.4

Czech Republic 1.35 1.36 1.25 1.25 -8.0 -7.6

Romania 0.88 1.34 1.58 1.68 26.1 91.0

Others 3.44 4.09 4.71 4.58 12.1 33.4


EU Sunflower

EU Sunflower

SunflowerProduction AVG 5 yrs 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 %change %change


TOTAL EU 8.54 8.46 9.16 9.00 6.4 5.5

Romania 1.96 1.95 2.41 2.25 15.1 14.7

Bulgaria 1.82 1.80 1.90 1.90 5.3 3.9

Spain 0.81 0.71 0.77 0.77 7.5 -5.5

France 1.44 1.08 1.25 1.30 20.4 -10.0

Hungary 1.55 1.89 1.93 1.87 -1.2 21.0

Others 0.95 1.03 0.91 0.93 -9.7 -2.8


EU Soybeans

EU Soybeans SoyaProduction AVG 5 yrs 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 %change %change


TOTAL EU 1.81 2.49 2.70 2.69 7.9 48.6

Italy 0.88 1.08 1.08 1.08 0.2 23.2

Romania 0.20 0.26 0.42 0.42 61.6 106.6

France 0.22 0.36 0.40 0.40 12.6 81.2

Croatia 0.15 0.24 0.21 0.21 -10.1 46.7

Hungary 0.11 0.18 0.19 0.16 -10.7 42.7

Austria 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.17 9.8 40.2

Others 0.12 0.21 0.21 0.23 8.2 92.2


Key messages - oilseeds

2017/18 production of oilseeds at high level

m/m : slight revision down at 34.1m t (reduction for rapeseed, soya and sunflower)

y/y : +9% (better yields and higher area) five year average: +9%

Crops

Rapeseed at 22.3m t (+11% y/y) – second highest level

m/m: FR, RO ↗ HU, SE ↘

Sunflower at 9.0m t (+6 % y/y) – close to record level

m/m: FR ↗ HU, RO ↘

Soyabeans at 2.7m t (+8% y/y) – record level m/m: RO ↗ HU ↘

EU Protein crops EU PROTEIN CROPS AREA


Million ha trimmed September 2017 October 2017 2016/17 5yrs trimmed

Field peas 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 10.1 68.6

Broad beans 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3 46.1

Sweet lupins 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 38.3

TOTAL 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 6.2 56.6


EU PROTEIN CROPS PRODUCTION



Field peas 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.9 27.2 81.8

Broad beans 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 10.6 51.1

Sweet lupins 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 35.3

TOTAL 3.2 4.4 5.2 5.3 18.5 65.3


EU Protein crops

Key messages – protein crops

Since 2013

Protein crops : + 114 %

Soybeans : + 121 %

Four crops: + 116 % (Max in 1998 – 8 mt)

6.4

5.3

1.12.7

7.58.0 7.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

EU Protein crops & soybeans production

soyabeans

peas, beans, lupins

ALL

EU prices for

oilseeds and protein crops ?

EU prices

361 EUR/t

328 EUR/t

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

EUR

/ t

EU (France) Rapeseed and Sunflower export prices (fob)

Rapeseed

Sunflower

source: IGCsource: IGC

EU 28 S&D balance sheets

seeds/beans, oils and meals

OILSEEDS balance sheet

Oilseeds (mio . t ) 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15 2015/ 16p 2016/ 17e 2017/ 18f5-yr.av.

2012-17

P ro ductio n 27.4 31.5 35.4 32.1 31.0 34.0 31.5

Rape 19.3 21.0 24.3 21.8 20.1 22.3 21.0

Soybean 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.8

Sunflower 7.2 9.3 9.3 7.9 8.5 9.0 8.5

T o tal do mestic use 44.1 47.7 49.3 50.0 49.8 50.4 48.9

Rape 23.2 24.2 25.9 24.9 24.6 25.4 24.6

of which crushing 22.3 23.5 25.0 24.1 23.8 24.6 23.8

Soybean 13.7 14.7 14.4 17.1 16.4 16.0 15.2


Sunflower 7.2 8.8 8.9 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.5


Impo rts 16.0 17.4 15.8 18.7 19.5 17.4 17.4

Rape 3.4 3.5 2.3 3.5 4.7 3.5 3.5

Soybean 12.4 13.6 13.2 14.8 14.0 13.6 13.6

Sunflower 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4

Expo rts 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

Rape 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Soybean 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Sunflower 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5

End sto cks 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8

Rape 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0

Soybean 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2

Sunflower 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

Self sufficiency rate % 62 66 72 64 62 67

OILSEEDS MEALS balance sheet

M eals (mio . t ) 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15 2015/ 16p 2016/ 17e 2017/ 18f5-yr.av.

2012-17

P ro ductio n 25.9 28.1 28.8 29.6 29.4 29.6 28.8

Rape 12.7 13.4 14.3 13.7 13.6 14.0 13.6

Soybean 9.7 10.4 10.2 12.0 11.6 11.3 10.7

Sunflower 3.4 4.3 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.1


Rape 12.8 13.5 14.3 13.7 13.3 14.0 13.5

Soybean 26.0 28.7 28.4 31.9 29.7 29.4 28.9

Sunflower 7.1 7.2 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.5 7.2

Impo rts 21.1 22.0 22.3 23.8 22.2 22.3 22.2

Rape 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4

Soybean 17.0 18.5 18.6 20.2 18.3 18.5 18.5

Sunflower 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.4

Expo rts 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0

Rape 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

Soybean 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Sunflower 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

End sto cks 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Rape 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Soybean 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Sunflower 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Self suff iciency rate % 56 57 58 56 58 58

VEGETABLE OILS balance sheet

Vegetable o ils (mio . t ) 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15 2015/ 16p 2016/ 17e 2017/ 18f5-yr.av.

2012-17

P ro ductio n 14.2 15.5 16.2 15.9 15.9 16.2 15.8

Rape 9.1 9.6 10.3 9.9 9.8 10.1 9.8

Soybean 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7

Sunflower 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.2

Palm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Rape 8.9 9.4 10.2 9.8 9.5 10.0 9.6

Soybean 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1

Sunflower 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.9

Palm 6.0 6.7 6.7 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.7

Impo rts 7.6 8.4 8.5 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.5

Rape 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Soybean 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Sunflower 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.1

Palm 6.1 6.9 6.9 7.1 6.7 6.8 6.8

Expo rts 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8

Rape 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4

Soybean 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9

Sunflower 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

Palm 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

End sto cks 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Rape 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Soybean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Sunflower 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Palm 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Self sufficiency rate % 71 71 71 69 70 71

Thank you for your attention!

Presentations & Balance sheets

available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/index_en.htm



OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation · OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS market situation...

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