Oil World Production 2030

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World conventional petroleum liquidsGeoArabia, vol. 14, no. 1, 2009, p. 215-267Gulf PetroLink, Bahrain

World production of conventional petroleum liquids to 2030:A comparative overview

Moujahed Al-Husseini

ABSTRACT

This paper compares estimates of reserves, resources and future productionscenarios of conventional petroleum liquids for five peaked countries and the Worldas determined by various analytical techniques. It starts by illustrating HubbertsModel using historical production from offshore Norway and the United Kingdom(UK), and onshore Oman, Syria and Yemen, to estimate the resource, peak rate andyear. For all five countries the estimated resources were found to significantly differfrom known reserves (cumulative production plus proved reserves) and ultimaterecoverable resources estimated by geologic studies; accordingly the modelsestimate is here referred to as the producing resource. Importantly, the producingresource notthe known reserves or ultimate recoverable resources represents

the quantity that most closely predicted the peak (rate and year) and early declinefor these countries. The models production trajectory became accurate after theproducing resource was between 1030% depleted for four countries; the exceptionwas for the UK at 44% depletion and due to non-geological circumstances. In thefive countries, the peak occurred when the producing resource was approximately50% depleted, and within a production plateau here defined as exceeding 91% ofthe peak rate.

The Hubbert Model cannot be applied to all basins and/or countries. Its Worldpredictions are controversial and therefore presented as a Production Base Caseandcompared to those from other studies. The Base Case for conventional petroleumliquids predicted: (1) average producing resource of c. 2,860 billion barrels (Gb),

(2) peak rate of c. 85.7 Mb/d (31.3 Gb/year), and (3) peak year in ca. 2016. Thedata used for this analysis is oil productionas reported by BP (2008) from 1991 to2007, consisting mostly of crude oil, lease condensates and natural gas liquids. Theproducing resource is just 3% greater than the 95%-confidence estimate for ultimaterecoverable resources of 2,770 Gb effective in 2025 by the United States GeologicalSurvey (with 152 Gb added for Canadian oil sands, BP, 2008). It is 351 Gb greaterthan the end-2007 known reserves of 2,509 Gb, consisting of 1,119 Gb produced,1,238 Gb proved, and 152 Gb in Canadian oil sands (BP, 2008). The unprovenresource of 351 Gb is achievable if the 20 Gb/year rate of new liquids reserves(undiscovered and reserves growth), added in 2005, is maintained on averagebetween 20082025. The convergence of these three independent techniques on aresource of c. 2,860 Gb makes no assumption about the price of oil.

The predicted peak rate (85.7 Mb/d in 2016) is 4.2 Mb/d greater than the 2007average oil production of 81.5 Mb/d (BP, 2008). It compares closely to the peakrate of 86.2 Mb/d in 2012 obtained by balancing new megaprojects (more than 40Kb/d) coming onstream in 20052014, against existing 2004 production declinedat 4.5%/y. The Base Case predicts that production in 2030 will be 78.0 Mb/d, asconsistent with the high-price scenariofor conventional petroleum liquids productionby the Energy Information Agency (2008): price of oil to increase to $186/barrel by2030 but production to fall to 80.3 Mb/d in 2030 from 81.8 Mb/d in 2004.

INTRODUCTION

Over the past several decades many analysts have applied Hubberts Model to forecast the productionof petroleum from various countries and the World (Hubbert, 1956a, b, 1969, 1982; Hubberts Curvesometimes referred to as the derivative of the Logistic Curve; e.g. Campbell, 1997, 2004, 2006; Campbell


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and Laherrre, 1998; Laherrre, 2000; Laherrre and Wingert, 2008; Duncan, 2001; Cavallo, 2002, 2004;Deffeyes, 2005; see review inAl-Husseini, 2006). The model suggests a simple relationship betweenannual discoveries, annual production, peak production and year, and the ultimate recoverableresources. The predictions, however, vary considerably depending on the analysts confidence in thereported ultimate resources and the suitability of the model to the target region (e.g. Nehring, 2006a,b, c). Moreover, because the model does not explicitly account for the price of oil, some analysts

have regarded its application to be of limited scope. In particular, for the USA and World cases,it has been convincingly argued that because the price of oil varies over time then so do supply,demand, reserves and the ultimate resource itself (see McCabe, 1998, and related Discussionin 2001by Laherrre, Campbell and Duncan, and Replyby McCabe, 2001; Ahlbrandt, 2004, 2006; Nehring,2006a, b, c).

One significant aspect of Hubberts Model is that it offers a simple technique that uses only historicalproduction data to estimate: (1) resource; (2) maximum sustainable production (peak); and (3)peak year (Hubbert, 1982; see Duncan, 2001; Deffeyes, 2005; de Sousa, 2008). The application ofthis technique here referred to as the Hubbert Line is illustrated using production data from fivecountries with declining production (Table 1); two offshore (Norway and the United Kingdom - UK)and three onshore (Oman, Syria and Yemen). These five countries were specificallychosen to illustrate

how the technique works when applied to suitableregions, and more importantly to quantitativelydetermine what is meant by the terms resource, peak, plateau and peak year as determined by theHubbert Line. This paper shows that the resource estimated by Hubberts Model using productiondata referred to as theproducing resource differs from known reserves (produced plus proved) andultimate recoverable resources; importantly, in the studied countries, it is the crucial quantity thatdetermined the peak, plateau and early decline of production.

The final part of the paper applies the Hubbert Line to the Worlds production of conventional petroleumliquids to compute its producing resource and peak. The results are interpreted as the Production BaseCase, and compared with those from other independent studies of ultimate recoverable resources(USGS, 2000; Ahlbrandt et al., 2005; Ahlbrandt, 2004, 2006; J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication),known reserves (produced and proved; BP, 2008), rates of reserves additions (Chew, 2006), near-

future production from megaprojects and decline rates (Skrebowski, 2007; Jackson, 2008).

PRODUCTION, RESOURCES AND RESERVESOF CONVENTIONAL PETROLEUM LIQUIDS

Annual Production of Conventional Petroleum Liquids

The annual oil productiondata (Tables 2 and 5) used in this paper are from the BP (2008) data base,which is unique in several ways: (1) it is readily available from their website for producing countriesand the World (www.bp.com), (2) it lists production and reserves back to the 1960s in spreadsheets, (3)the data most closely represents the conventional petroleum liquidsextracted from crude oil reservoirsand wet-gas reservoirs locally (lease condensates) and from gas plants, and (4) it is widely quoted as

a source in many other studies.

BP includes in the category of oil productioncommercially traded crude oil, which is a stabilized liquidof processed hydrocarbons at atmospheric temperature and pressure. BP includes condensates(leasecondensates), which act as a gas in the reservoir but are liquid at surface conditions and processed in amanner similar to crude oil. Natural gas liquids(NGL) are also included in oil production, and referredto as natural gas plant liquids(NGPL) by the USAs Energy Information Administration (EIA). NGLconsist of C2 (ethane), C3 (propane), C4 (butane), C5 and C6 (pentane and hexane used to producelight naphtha or natural gasoline and fractionated into liquefied petroleum gasLPG). NGL and theirderivative LPG are distinguished from condensates because they are totally volatile at atmosphericconditions, more so for the lower weight components. Other petroleum liquids included by BP areoil sands(Canada) and shale oil(USA); not included are liquid fuels recovered from coal, gas-to-liquids

(GTL) and biofuels.


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World conventional petroleum liquids

The BP database distinguishes between oil productionand oil consumption, the latter being generallyseveral million barrels per day (Mb/d) greater due to refinery gains, additives and discrepancies inreporting. For example, average 2007 production was reported as 81.5 Mb/d while consumptionas 85.2 Mb/d a difference of 3.7 Mb/d. Also, as noted later, some organizations quote volumes interms ofproduction capacity(e.g. International Energy Agency, IEA), which can be as much as 10 Mb/dgreater than BPs reported production (Cambridge Energy Research Associates - CERA).

Reserves and Resources of Conventional Petroleum Liquids

Petroleum reserves and resources are categorized and defined, mainly in terms of their probability ofoccurrence and commerciality, by several organizations including a team of geologists and engineersfrom the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE, 2008; see www.spe.org), the American Associationof Petroleum Geologists (AAPG; www.aapg.org), the World Petroleum Council (WPC; www.world-petroleum.org) and the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE; www.spee.org). This paperis primarily concerned with comparing the producing resource estimated from historical productiondata by the Hubbert Line to those from other studies, particularly by the United States GeologicalSurvey (USGS). For this reason the paper follows the USGS (2000; Ahlbrandt, 2004, 2006; Ahlbrandtet al., 2005) and casts the estimated ultimate recoverable resources(EURR; ultimate resourcesfor short) interms of four categories (Figure 1):

(1) Cumulative Production (produced)obtained by adding annual production (BP, 2008) to start-up.

(2) Remaining Proved Reserves (proved)are reported in various publications (e.g. Table 4, BP, 2008; Oil& Gas Journal, annual issue) but their definitions may vary by country or source. For example, theCanadian National Energy Board (CNEB) reports Canadas proved oil reserves at c. 180 billionbarrels (Gb) of which oil sands account for 174 Gb. In contrast, BP (2008) divides the same quantityinto proved developed reserves of 27.7 Gb, and 152.2 Gb for undeveloped oil sands. Moreover, theCNEB estimates the ultimate recoverable resources in oil sands at 315 Gb and the oil-originally-in-place at 1,701 Gb. The definitions for proved reserves also vary by region, organization andcertainty (e.g. United States of America - USA, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries- OPEC, Former Soviet Union - FSU, etc.). The USGS uses the IHS database, which essentially

includesproved plus probable(P50 or 2P), as consistent with the view of J. Laherrre (2008, written

Cumulative

Production1,119 Gb

1,238 Gb

152 Gb

351 Gb

Proved

Reserves

CanadianOil Sands

Reserves

Growth

Undiscovered

Resources

Not Recoverable Oil

Very Heavy Oil (API < 15)

Oil from coal, oil shales?

Unconventional

Oil

Conven

tiona

lOil-Origina

lly-in-P

lace

(OOIP)Cru

deo

il,

Lease

Con

densa

tes,

Na

tura

lGas

Liqu

idsan

dOilsan

ds

Es

tima

tedU

ltima

te

Recovera

bleResources

(EURR)

Un

known

Resource

Pro

duc

ingR

esource

(R)

2,8

60Billion

Barre

ls(Gb)

?

Known

Reserves

2,5

09Gb

Figure 1: In this paper, the term oil is consistentwith BP's definition for conventionalpetroleum liquids. At end-2007, the World'scumulative production was 1,119 billionbarrels (Gb, produced), proved reserves were

1,238 Gb (proved) and Canadian oil sands held152 Gb (BP, 2008). The sum of produced andproved, referred to as known reserves, was2,509 Gb. Undiscovered resources (to be addedby exploration and outpost drilling) andreserves growth (to be added fromundeveloped or developed reservoirs by newtechnology, improved reservoir managementand better commercial conditions) constitutethe unknown resource. The estimated ultimaterecoverable resources (EURR) consists of theknown and unknown resources. It is the

amount of oil-originally-in-place (OOIP) that can be apparently recovered. It does not includeunconventional oil resources such as oil shales, extra-heavy oil (API < 15), biofuels, coalderivatives and gas-to-liquids. The Hubbert Line estimates the producing resource for the 1990s2007 at 2,860 Gb (see Figure 16).

WORLDS OIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES


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communication). In this paper all proved reserves are quoted from BP (2008) without any attemptto qualify their certainty. The term Known Reserves is the sum of cumulative production andremaining proved reserves.

(3) Undiscovered Resources (undiscovered or yet-to-find) are uncertain, and typically estimated bygeological studies involving quantitative modeling of petroleum systems in different regions (i.e.basin modeling), sometimes qualified with probabilities of occurrence (e.g. USGS, 2000; Ahlbrandtet al., 2005; Ahlbrandt and Klett, 2005).

(4) Reserves Growth (growth)are unproven resources in developed or undeveloped reservoirs, andattributed to new technology, improved reservoir management, changes in commerciality andother considerations, and believed to increase along historical trends established in producing

fields (e.g. McCabe, 1998, 2001; Klett and Tennyson, 2008; Klett and Gautier, 2005). Nehring(2006a, b, c) showed the importance of reserves growth in two USA mature provinces and howthe application of Hubberts Model resulted in incorrect predictions of production.

Table 1

Production Parameters for Five Peaked Countries and the World.

Country NorwayUnited

KingdomOman Syria Yemen World

Hubbert Line

Year Interval Fit 19982007 19942007 19862007 19912007 19982007 19952007

Number of Years 10 14 22 17 10 13

A (intercept) 0.155 0.133 0.105 0.149 0.194 0.044

B (slope) -5.00E-06 -4.40E-06 -8.50E-06 -2.52E-05 -5.73E-05 -1.53E-08

Resources *(J. Laherrre, 2009, written comm.) and ** USGS 95% by Year 2025

Reserves BP (2008)

Cumulative Production 22.5 Gb 24.9 Gb 8.5 Gb 4.7 Gb 2.46 Gb 1,119 Gb

Proved Reserves 8.2 Gb 3.6 Gb 5.6 Gb 2.5 Gb 2.80 Gb 1,390 Gb*

Unknown Resource 4.9 Gb 4.4 Gb 3.6 Gb 1.6 Gb 0.60 Gb -90 GbUltimate Recoverable* 36.0 Gb 35.0 Gb 16.0 Gb 7.5 Gb 4.00 Gb 2,770 Gb* **

Unknown Resource (%) 13.6% 12.5% 22.5% 21.3% 15.0% -3.1%

Plateau and Peak

Years > 91% Peak 10.0 12.0 12.0 8.5 6.0 28.0

Plateau Years 1996-20051984-1987,

1994-20011994-2005 1993.5-2002 2000-2005 2003-2030

Model Peak Year 2001 1996 1999 1998 2002 2016

Actual Peak Year 2001 1999 2001 1995 2002 N/A

Model Peak Rate 1.21 Gb/y 1.02 Gb/y 325 Mb/y 219 Mb/y 163 Mb/y 31.3 Gb/y

Actual Peak Rate 1.25 Gb/y 1.06 Gb/y 351 Mb/y 218 Mb/y 167 Mb/y N/A

Model Peak Rate 3.32 Mb/d 2.79 Mb/d 891 Kb/d 601 Kb/d 448 Kb/d 85.7 Mb/y

Actual Peak Rate 3.42 Mb/d 2.91 Mb/d 961 Kb/d 597 Kb/d 458 Kb/d N/A

Depletion and Decline

Max Depletion Rate 3.89% 3.56% 2.62% 3.72% 4.82% 1.10%

End-2007 Depletion 72.3% 81.3% 68.5% 79.7% 72.4% 39.0%

2007 to Peak Production 74.8% 56.2% 74.7% 66.1% 73.5% 95.0%

2008 Annual Decline 7.0% 8.5% 4.5% 8.7% 9.8% N/A

31.1 Gb 30.6 Gb 12.4 Gb 5.9 Gb 3.40 Gb 2,860 GbProducing Resource

30.7 Gb 28.5 Gb 14.1 Gb 7.2 Gb 5.26 Gb 2,509 GbKnown Reserves

2010 Annual Decline 7.9% 9.0% 5.3% 9.5% 11.2% N/A

* Includes Canadian Oil Sands (152 Gb)


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Whereas the produced is fairly accuratelyknown, the quantities attributed to theother three categories are successivelyless well defined and uncertain,and greatly debated (Caruso, 2005;Skrebowski, 2006a, b, c, 2007; Jackson,

2006; see reviews in Edwards, 1997; Kerr,2005; Al-Husseini, 2006; Ahlbrandt, 2004,2006; National Petroleum Council, 2007).

For the five countries studied here thecomparisons show significant diffe-rences between producing resource,known reserves (BP, 2008) and ultimaterecoverable resources (Table 1). Theultimate resources in Table 1 weredetermined by J. Laherrre (2008,written communication) and are

between 12.522.5% greater than theproducing resource. His estimates arebased on applying the Hubbert Model tohistorical reserves data (creaming curve)rather than production data, and aretherefore more likely to represent theultimate recoverable resources (EURR).Another discrepancy occurs becausethe historical production data do notnecessarily account for booked reservesfrom future projects that have not yetstarted producing (enhanced oil-recovery

projects - EOR, liquids from undevelopedwet-gas reservoirs, sulfurous and/orheavy-oil reservoirs, etc.).

Conventional andUnconventional Petroleum

Liquids

Some confusion occurs when comparingproduction, reserves and resourcesacross studies because certain analystsexclude, for example, NGL, very deep

water, Arctic resources, etc. Water depthhas been considered as one criterion fordistinguishing between conventionaland unconventional petroleum liquids;but the cut-off depth has changed as E&Ptechnology has advanced into increas-ingly deeper waters. For example T.Ahlbrandt (2008, written communication)noted that Campbell set the cut-off at200 m in 1989 but extended it to 500 m in2008. In contrast, the USGS (2000) initiallyset it at 2,000 m but later increased it to

4,000 m when Brazilian wells were drilledin water depths of 3,000 m.

Table 2Oil Production for Peaked Countries

(Million barrels per year, Mb/y) (BP, 2008).

Year

19651966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Total

Norway

0.00.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2.2

12.1

11.7

12.8

69.0

101.8

104.8

129.9

148.6

192.7

186.9

194.2

241.3

274.5

300.4

331.1

384.7

436.5

572.0

626.3

713.6

809.2

867.6

983.0

1,059.6

1,179.7

1,197.2

1,145.4

1,145.7

1,221.3

1,247.6

1,216.6

1,191.4

1,164.0

1,068.0

1,014.3

932.9

22,490.3

UK

0.70.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.5

1.8

2.9

3.3

3.7

12.4

92.4

289.1

408.4

588.0

607.0

676.4

784.8

877.5

960.7

976.4

974.9

946.5

874.5

704.1

700.1

700.4

723.1

773.4

976.4

1,003.4

998.3

986.2

1,024.6

1,061.8

973.5

903.7

899.0

823.8

740.2

660.3

597.1

597.1

24,932.2

Oman

0.00.0

20.8

88.0

119.4

121.2

107.3

102.9

106.9

105.9

124.5

134.0

124.1

114.6

107.7

104.0

120.5

123.4

142.7

152.9

183.2

205.9

214.6

228.1

237.6

253.7

261.3

273.0

286.5

298.9

318.8

327.4

331.8

330.3

332.5

350.0

350.8

328.5

300.8

275.9

287.3

274.5

262.1

8,534.3

Syria

0.00.0

0.0

7.7

19.3

31.0

38.7

42.7

40.5

47.1

70.1

73.4

66.8

65.3

61.0

57.7

59.9

56.6

58.8

59.1

58.0

73.4

84.3

97.8

124.5

148.6

172.3

187.6

206.6

205.5

217.5

213.9

210.6

210.2

211.3

200.0

212.1

200.0

192.4

180.7

164.3

153.7

143.8

4,724.8

Yemen

0.00.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.7

9.5

62.1

65.0

66.4

71.9

67.2

76.3

126.3

128.1

130.3

136.9

138.7

147.8

164.3

166.1

166.8

163.5

153.3

151.8

138.7

122.6

2,457.3

Total

0.70.7

21.5

96.4

139.4

153.7

150.0

160.6

162.4

169.4

276.0

401.6

584.7

718.3

905.3

961.4

1,043.6

1,158.9

1,320.2

1,447.2

1,518.0

1,589.0

1,639.6

1,699.1

1,703.2

1,795.1

1,919.5

2,060.1

2,210.5

2,590.0

2,727.4

2,849.6

2,862.7

2,849.1

2,899.1

2,909.1

2,880.3

2,810.9

2,671.9

2,514.1

2,331.7

2,178.4

2,058.6

63,138.9


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Extra-heavy oil (e.g. Venezuelas Orinoco oil with an API of c. 1012o) is considered unconventionaland not included by BP (2008) with reserves (Figure 1); however the cut-off API for extra-heavy oilcan vary according to analyst (e.g. 15oAPI by the USGS, Ahlbrandt et al., 2005; or 17.5oAPI, Campbell,2006). BP does not include oil shale in proved reserves, and the quantities attributed to shale oilproduction are mainly from the USA and relatively small.

In this paper all production and reserves data are based on BP (2008) and different conventions forconventional/unconventional petroleum liquids are explicitly noted in comparisons and Tables 6 to8 (Figure 1).

ILLUSTRATION OF HUBBERT MODEL FOR FIVE COUNTRIES WITHDECLINING PRODUCTION

Hubbert Line

Consider a simple relationship between a finite producing resource (R) and maximum production (PM) both assumed to be constants, and the variables annual production (PA) and cumulative production

(PC

):

PA/ PC= 4 x (PM/R) x (1 - PC/ R) (1)

The variables PAand PCare known year-by-year and are published for most producing countries andthe World (e.g. BP, 2008). By setting Y = PA/ PCand X = PC, Equation 1 is recognized as a straight line here referred to as the Hubbert Line(Hubbert, 1982; Duncan, 2001; Deffeyes, 2005; de Sousa, 2008),with the form shown in Equations (2) to (4):

Y = A + B x X (2)

A = 4 x PM/ R (3)

B = - 4 x PM/ R2 (4)

The constants A and B respectively correspond to the intercept with the Y-axis and the slope of theline. The straight line can be drawn visually or determined by least-square regression. Once A and Bare estimated, then from equations (3) and (4):

R = - A/B (5)

PM= A x R /4 (6)

Note from Equation 2, when X = - A/B then Y = 0, so that the X-intercept of the line is X = - A/B andfrom Equation 5, the resource R.

Norways Hubbert Line

Norway production history (Figure 2 and Table 2, BP, 2008) provides a good case study to test howwell these equations work in a particularly suitable region. Norways production peaked in 2001 at arate of 1.25 billion barrels per year (Gb/y), and by end-2007 22.5 Gb was produced and 8.2 Gb proved(BP, 2008) totaling 30.7 Gb in known reserves(Table 1).

In Figure 3 the ratio of Norways annual-to-cumulative production (Y = PA/PC) is plotted againstproduced (X = PC). Three Hubbert Lines were determined using least-square regression for differenttime intervals. When the data from 19822007 was used the producing resource R was 29.8 Gb andpeak rate PMwas 1.25 Gb/y. When the pre-peak 19891997 data was separately used, R was 30.4 Gb

and PM= 1.30 Gb/y. The most recent straight-line trend from 19982007 in Figure 3 predicted R as31.1 Gb and PM= 1.21 Gb/y. Essentially all three lines predicted R and PMto within a few percentagesof the peak level and known reserves.


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Figure 3: Norway's Hubbert Line varies slightly depending on which time interval is used. When

the 19822007 data is considered for the straight line the resulting estimate of the producingresource (R = X-intercept) is 29.8 billion barrels (Gb), which is greater than the 26 Gb obtained byZittel and Schindler (2003), and less than the 36 Gb obtained by the exploration creaming curve(Laherrre, 2006, written communication). When the pre-peak 19891997 or plateau-peak19982007 straight-line segments were used individually, the resource was found to be between30.4 and 31.1 Gb. All three estimates are close to Norway's known reserves of 30.7 Gb. Thepredicted maximum production PMis the Y-intercept (A) multiplied by R/4 and ranges from 1.21to 1.30 Gb/y for the three lines, compared to 1.25 Gb/y in 2001.

PA/PC= Maximum

A

R

ProducingResource

Mid-Depletion

0302

009998

8887

86

8382

81

8489

8590

9192

93

94 9596

97

0405

0607

B= Slope

2001 - Peak Year at 1.25 Gb/y

NORWAYS HUBBERT LINE

Annual/CumulativeProduction(PA/PC)

Cumulative Production (Billion barrel) PC

0.15

0.20

0.10

0.05

0.00 5 10 15 20 25 30

TimeInterval

1998-2007

1989-19971982-2007

A

0.155

0.1710.168

R(Gb)

31.1

30.429.8

PM

(Gb/y)

1.21

1.301.25

B

-5x10-6

-5.6x10-6

-5.63x10-6

Significantly, the pre-peak 19891997 Hubbert Line carried sufficient information to predict the peakyear and known reserves. The most recent straight-line trend between 19982007 estimates R as 31.1Gb, which is only 0.4 Gb greater than the known reserves (30.7 Gb). This would at first suggest that

the unknown resource (undiscovered and growth, Figure 1) is c. 1.3% (100 x 0.4/30.7; see Table 1). Incontrast, the creaming curve based on historical reserves data predicted Norways ultimate recoverable

Figure 2: Norway and the United Kingdom (UK) started producing from the North Sea in the early1970s (Tables 1 and 2, BP, 2008). Norway's production built-up gently reaching a peak in 2001. TheUK's production peaked in 1999 after a major downturn due to the tragic Piper Alpha accident in1985. Between 1999 and 2007 the combined production of Norway and the UK has declined from2.21 billion barrels per year (Gb/y) to 1.53 Gb/y in 2007 or by nearly 30%.

United Kingdom (UK)

end-2007

Produced: 24.9 Gb

Proved: 3.6 Gb

Total: 28.5 Gb

Norway end-2007

Produced: 22.5 Gb

Proved: 8.2 Gb

Total: 30.7 Gb

PiperAlpha

Accident

in 1985

UK Peak1.06 Gb/y

in 1999

Norway Peak

1.25 Gb/y

in 2001

OIL PRODUCTION

FROM NORWAY

AND THE

UNITED KINGDOM

AnnualProduction(Billionbarre

ls/year-Gb/y)

year

DailyProduc

tion(Millionbarrels/day-Mb/d)

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0


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resource at 36.0 Gb (J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication) such that the unknown resource isc. 4.9 Gb (13.6%, Table 1). The differences between theproducing resource, known reservesand ultimaterecoverable resourcesemphasize the importance of distinguishing between these terms.

In order to compare Norways Hubbert Line to those from other regions it is helpful to use a normalizedgraph. Equation 1 can be rewritten in a normalized form as:

(P

A

/P

M

)/(P

C

/ R) = 4 x (1 - P

C

/ R) (7)

In this equivalent graph, the Y-intercept is 4.0, slope - 4.0 and X-intercept 1.0 (100%). In Figure 4, thenormalized Norwegian data is plotted in this graphical form for R = 31.1 Gb in a manner that can becompared to other countries and the World (Figures 6, 9, 11, 13 and 16).

Norways Hubbert Parabola

Clearly Norways Hubbert Line carries important information about this countrys production history,and in hindsight its predictions were important well before the plateau occurred and subsequentdecline started. But what does Hubberts Line physically mean? To clarify its significance, Equation1 is rewritten as follows:

PA/PM= 4 x (PC/R) x (1 - PC/ R) (8)

Equation 8 has the same information as the previous ones but it now shows how the percentageratio of annual-to-maximum production (100 x PA/PM) follows a parabolic trajectory as a function ofpercent depletion (D = 100 x PC/R) (Hubbert, 1982; Duncan, 2001). In Figure 5, Norways productiontrajectory is plotted alongHubberts Parabolausing the producing resource R of 31.1 Gb. The followingmodel-data comparisons standout:

Annual and cumulative production are zero at start-up in 1977; PC= PA= 0. Annual production should reach 36% of the peak (PM) at 10% depletion Norway closely attained

these two levels in 1988. At 15% depletion, production should attain half the peak this occurred in 1990. At quarter-depletion, production should reach 75% of peak Norway reached a slightly higher

rate of 80% of peak in 1994 at quarter-depletion.

Figure 4: The Norwegian Hubbert Line in Figure 3 can be replotted using a normalized form. Theplotted data are annual production (PA) divided by maximum production (PM = 1.21 Gb/y) over

depletion (PC/R) versus cumulative production (PC) divided by the producing resource (R = 31.1Gb; Note Depletion in percentage is 100 x PC/R). In this graph the normalized Hubbert Line hasthe same form for any country or the World (see Figures 6, 9, 11, 13 and 16).

PM= 1.21 Gb/y

Model Peak in 2001

Straight line19982007

Producing Resource

R= 31.1 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR NORWAY

ModelMid-Depletion

15.56 Gb


888786

8589

9091 92

93 9495 96

97

9899

00

0203

0405

06 07PA

PM

PC

R

NormalizedAnnual/Depletion

Depletion (D = PC/R) Cumulative Production/Producing Resource (%)

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

End - 2007

Produced

Proved

Total known

: 22.5 Gb

: 8.2 Gb

: 30.7 Gb


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Annual production should reach a peak (PA= PM) when half of the resource has been produced,or mid-depletion (D = 50%, PC= 15.5 Gb) in 2001 this occurred in 2001.

The plateau (defined here as greater than 91% of peak) should be symmetrical and correspond todepletion between 35% and 65%, or the mid-30% depletion interval Norway's plateau occurredbetween 19962005 when depletion increased from 30% to 65%.

After mid-depletion, the decline is predicted to be symmetrical to the build-up, as approximatelythe case since the 2001 peak.

Annual production returns to zero (PA= 0) when all the resource has been depleted (D = 100%, PC= R = 31.1 Gb). This is predicted to occur well past 2020.

In summary it is evident that the closer the data adhere to Hubberts Line (Figures 3 and 4), the closer

the production trajectory follows Hubberts Parabola (Figure 5). Importantly, it demonstrates that theproducing resource (31.1 Gb) notthe ultimate resources (36.0 Gb) best calibrates the Hubbert Parabolafrom 1977 to 2007. Indeed this distinction argues that all the ultimate resources may not contribute

Figure 5: Norway's annual production when plotted against depletion follows a parabolictrajectory. The more the data plots as a straight Hubbert Line (Figures 3 and 4), the more parabolicthe production trajectory. The 50%-depletion level corresponds to the maximum level ofproduction (PM = 1.21 Gb/y). The model also predicts the time history and annual decline rate(year-to-year or natural decline) based on the maximum depletion rate of 3.89%/y atmid-depletion. For comparison to other countries and the world, the graph depicts the ratio (inpercent) of the annual-to-peak production (PA/PM) versus depletion (percent).

75% PMat 25% and 75% D1994 and 2008 symmetric for 2001

36% PMat 10% Depletion (D)

50% PMat 15% and 85% D1990 and 2012 symmetric for 2001

Producing Resource R= 31.1 Gb

2001Peak PM= 1.21 Gb/y

= 3.32 Mb/d

Produced 22.49 Gb ?Proved 8.2 Gb

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

FOR

NORWAYPlateau at 91% PM

30% Produced

Annual/PeakProduction(PA/PM%)

Production(Gb/yan

dMb/d)


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0.8%

Annual Decline

77

78

79

83

8485

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

9697

9899

0101

0202

03

04

05

06

07

03

0405

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

20

2000

8082

2.3%

3.8%

5.2%

6.6%

7.9%

9.1%

10.0%

9.8%

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Gb5.0

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.0

3.3


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Table 3Time (T) and Annual Decline (DA)

for Maximum Depletion (DM) of 1.0%/Year.

Build-Up

Depletion

(%)

Past-Peak

Depletion

(%)

Annual/

Peak Prod

(%)

Time from

Peak

(Year)

Annual

Decline

(%/Year)

1 99 4 117.2

1.8

5 95 19 74.1

2.5

10 90 36 55.3

2.5

15 85 51 43.7

2.3

20 80 64 35.0

2.0

25 75 75 27.8

1.7

30 70 84 21.6

1.4

35 65 91 15.8

1.0

40 60 96 10.7

0.6

45 55 99 5.0

0.2

50 50 100 0.0

The maximum depletion rate (DM in percent/year) is 100

times the maximum production (PM) divided by the producing

resource (R). The table shows the time (years from mid-

depletion) and annual (year-to-year) decline at differentlevels of depletion (cumulative production divided by

producing resource) for DM = 1.0%/y. For other maximum

depletion rates, the time interval changes in inverse

proportion and annual decline in direct proportion (for

example for DM = 2.0%/y, divide time from peak by 2.0 and

multiply decline by 2.0).

to production in the critical plateau and earlydecline phases, but moreso in the advanceddecline phase. So far the Norwegian illustrationhas not shown time explicitly in the equations a matter that is accounted for below.

Norways Maximum Depletion andAnnual Decline Rates

Time can be factored in the model by consideringsmall time increments (dT) required to producesmall amounts of oil (dP). Returning to Equation8, substitute depletion D = PC/ R and a smallproduction rate dP/dT instead of PA:

dP/dT = 4 x PMx (D) x ( 1 - D) (9)

inverting both sides of the equation yields:

dT = 0.25 x (dP/PM) / [D x ( 1 - D)] (10)

The time interval (T) from the mid-depletionis calculated by adding the time increments dT(integrate or sum over time; de Sousa, 2008). Twocommonly cited yearly rates (percentages) areintroduced here to describe how time stretchesand contracts the Hubbert Model.

The first is the maximum depletion rate (DM inpercent per year), here defined as the peak rate

(PMmultiplied by 100) divided by the producingresource (R). During Norways peak year in2001, DMwas 3.89%/y (DM= 100 x 1.21/31.1 Gb;Table 1). As seen in Figure 5, over the 19962005plateau, one-year time steps approximatelydepleted the maximum rate (i.e. annual PA andpeak PM production are nearly equal in theplateau).

The second commonly cited rate is the irreversible annual decline(DAsometimes referred to asyear-to-year declineor natural decline; e.g. Skrebowski, 2006a, b, c; 2007; Jackson, 2008); it is the percentage fallof annual production relative to the previous year. In Table 3, the time interval from peak year (T) and

annual decline are shown for DM= 1.0%/y. For other maximum depletion rates, the time interval (T)changes in inverse proportion (for example for DM= 2.0%/y, divide time by 2.0) and annual declinein direct proportion (for DM= 2.0%/y, multiply decline by 2.0).

For Norway (Figure 5), the post-peak years from mid-depletion in 2001 to 95% depletion in ca. 2020are calculated from Equation 10. Also shown are the average annual decline rates (D A) for every5% depletion increment. The actual decline trajectory between 2001 and 2007 is comparable to themodels prediction. The Norwegian model predicts that the annual decline rate increases from0.8%/y shortly after the peak, to c. 6.6%/y in 2007 reaching c. 10%/y in the next decade. The modelsdecline trajectory is predicted to be time-symmetrical to the build-up when reflected by the peak year2001. This is approximately the case so far; for example 2007 (six years post-peak) is mirrored with1994 (seven years pre-peak).


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Having noted these model predictions for annual decline (DA), it is emphasized that the declinerate for mature basins may not necessarily follow the models prediction (Nehring, 2006a, b, c). Asnoted earlier, Norways producing resource (31.1 Gb) may be as much as 13.6% less than the ultimateresources (36.0 Gb, J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication). This difference implies that additionaland yet-unproved resources may go into production in the future rendering the decline rate less steepand causing the parabola to become less symmetrical over longer time intervals. This pattern may

be true in general, and particularly when oil prices increase and/or advanced recovery technologyis applied.

Hubbert Model for the United Kingdom (UK)

Whereas Norways production history closely matches the Hubbert Model, the UKs does not.Although both countries started producing from the North Sea at about the same time (Figure 2and Table 2, BP, 2008), the UKs production history has a much steeper build-up, an early 1985peak, followed by a sharp valley between 19891993. The production valley after 1985 was in part aconsequence of the tragic Piper Alpha accident and the subsequent safety measures, which took theindustry several years to implement before returning to full production (Zittel and Schindler, 2003). Italso resulted from reduced production in the Brent field when gas-producing facilities were installed

(J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication). Production returned to the plateau level in 1993, peakedin 1999, after which it started to decline.

The UKs end-2007 produced and proved were respectively 24.9 and 3.6 Gb totaling 28.5 Gb in knownreserves, compared to Norways 30.7 Gb (Table 1, BP, 2008). In Figures 6 and 7, the UKs normalizedproduction, Hubbert Line and Parabola are plotted. The UKs producing resource (R), based on the19942007 straight line, was found to be 30.6 Gb, which is 2.1 Gb greater than the known reserves(28.5 Gb) (Table 1). The maximum production is predicted at 1.02 Gb/y in 1996 and compares betterwith the second peak in 1999 at 1.06 Gb/y.

As in the case of Norway, the UKs producing resource is again substantially less (12.5%) thanthe ultimate recoverable resources (EURR) of 35.0 Gb obtained by J. Laherrre (2008, written

communication). The UKs Hubbert Parabola predicts production to fall to c. 700 Kb/d by 2015 and c.100 Kb/d by 2030. These predictions are unlikely to be true because by 20152030 currently marginalresources may become commercially viable to produce. The likelihood of a less steep decline isreinforced in the IEAs draft of the World Energy Outlook 2008obtained by Londons Financial Times(C. Hoyos and J. Blas, October 29, 2008): the report predicts that the UKs North Sea oil production by2030 will be about 500 Kb/d not100 Kb/d.

Multimodal Production Curve

The two peaks seen in the UKs production history characterize it as bimodal, whereas Norways ismonomodal (Figure 2). Using only the UKs Production Line before 1994 would have substantiallyunder-estimated the producing resource at c. 10 Gb (Figure 6). This demonstrates an important

pitfall that occurs when it is assumed that all the resources are in production. Similar multimodalproduction curves occur in many countries due to disruptions caused by wars, disasters, sabotage,strikes, sanctions, quotas, embargoes, price variations and other non-geological factors. It may alsooccur in politically stable regions, such as the USAs San Joaquin Valley and Permian Basin, due tovariations in the price of oil, advanced recovery (e.g. impact of waterflooding) and other technologicaladvances (Nehring, 2006a, b, c).

Nevertheless an important observation to note here is that the UKs 19932007 production still trackedthe Hubbert Model quite faithfully over the most critical second plateau and early decline phase(Figure 7). This observation is relevant to the later discussion of the Worlds production curve, whichis multi-modal (see Figures 15 and 17).


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Comparison of Hubbert Models for Norway and UK

The UKs maximum annual depletion rate (DM) was 3.56%/y compared to Norways 3.89%/y.Norways plateau (> 91% of Peak) lasted ca. 10 years (19962005); in contrast the UK attained twoplateaus (19841987 and 19942001) for ca. 12 years in total (Figure 2, Table 1). At end-2007, the UKis at 81.3% depletion and Norway at 72.3% of the producing resource. Post-peak, both countries aretracking the models decline trajectory; at end-2007, the UK was at 56.2% and Norway at 74.8% ofpeak production. The close tracking of the models decline-depletion curve is an important result it

appears to be independent of the countrys build-up profile, or whether production is monomodalor bimodal.

For the North Sea, reserve growth has contributed significantly for oil and moreso for natural gasreserves, with for example the giant Ekosfisk field surpassing its original estimated recoverablereserves (Klett and Gautier, 2005; T. Ahlbrandt, 2008, written communication). Nevertheless, takentogether the production of the two countries has declined from 2.21 Gb/y in 1999 to 1.53 Gb/y in2007, and is predicted by the model to reach c. 0.70 Gb/y by 2015 (Table 2). The predicted 19992015decline amounts to 1.5 Gb/y (4.1 Mb/d); if true this loss would require new production that nearlyequals the annual crude oil production of Iran, OPECs second largest producer in 2007.

Hubbert Model for Three Onshore Middle East Countries

To illustrate the Hubbert Model for onshore countries that have different reserves, resources andproduction histories, three peaked Middle Eastern countries (Oman, Syria and Yemen) are considered(Figure 8 and Table 2, BP, 2008). In Figures 9 to 14 and Table 1, their productions are compared to themodels graphs. The Hubbert Line became straight after c. 20% depletion for Oman, and 30% for Syriaand Yemen. At end-2007, the ratio of annual-to-peak production (PA/PM) for Oman was 74.7%, Syria66.1%, and Yemen 73.5%. In all three cases the model matches the plateau and early decline phasesclosely.

A notable difference between the three countries can be observed for the maximum depletion rateat the peak (DM). Yemen with the highest at 4.82%/y has the briefest plateau (six years from 2000 to2005) and highest annual decline rate (DApredicted to reach 9.8%/y in 2008, Figure 14). Syrias DM =3.72%/y corresponds to an 8.5-year plateau (mid-1993 to end-2002) and a maximum decline rate of8.7%/y in 2008 (Figure 12). Omans DM is the least at 2.62%/y, and so the plateau was more long-lived(12 years from 1994 to end-2005) and the maximum decline rate less steep and predicted to reach4.5%/y in 2008 (Figure 10).

Figure 6: The normalized UK's Hubbert Line became straight when depletion exceeded 44% in1994. The data from 1985 to 1993 reflect the tragic Piper Alpha accident and its aftermath, whichinvolved the implementation of increased safety measures. The producing resource (R = 30.6 Gb)

is 12.5% less than the estimate of the ultimate recoverable resources (EURR = 35 Gb) obtained byJ. Laherrre (2008, written communication).

PM= 1.02 Gb/yModel Peak in 1996


Producing Resource

R= 30.6 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

ModelMid-Depletion

15.3 GbEarly Peak

1985 PiperAlpha Accident


88

87

86

8990

91 9293

94 95

96 97 98

01

200002

03

04

05

0607

PA

PM

PC

R

NormalizedAnnu

al/Depletion


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

End - 2007

Produced

Proved

Total known

: 24.9 Gb

: 3.6 Gb

: 28.5 Gb

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


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The above comparisons illustrate that the models annual decline rate (DA) varies by country (Table 1,Figures 5, 7, 10, 12 and 14) and over time (see Table 3 and its footnote). The higher the maximumdepletion rate (DM = PM/R) over the plateau, the shorter its duration and the steeper the annualdecline rate. Significantly, the time history of production after the build-up phase is predicted to onlydepend on the peak production level (PM) and the producing resource (R), or equivalently their ratio,the maximum depletion rate (DM) (see Table 3). This prediction is probably more true for the twoNorth Sea countries than for the onshore Middle Eastern countries.

Unlike most offshore production, onshore production generally includes opportunities for additionaland more expensive projects (enhanced oil recovery - EOR, NGL from undeveloped wet-gas reservoirs,heavy and/or sulfurous oil reservoirs). These future projects are booked as proved reserves but arenot yet apparent in the historical data; therefore the producing resource R is consistently less than theknown reserves (Table 1): for Oman 12.1% (12.4 versus14.1 Gb), Syria 18.1% (5.9 versus7.2 Gb), and

Figure 7: The UK's production has closely followed the parabolic trajectory since 1993 whendepletion exceeded 44%. By end-2007 depletion was 82%, production was at 60% of the peak leveland the annual decline rate was about 8%/y. The model predicts that the natural decline rate willincrease to about 9%/year in the next decade and by 2015 production will be at 25% of the peaklevel. These predictions may be too severe if enhanced recovery and higher oil prices result inadditional producing reserves.


Produced 24.9 Gb ?Proved3.6 Gb

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

FOR THE

UNITED KINGDOM

(UK)

Aftermath ofPiper Alpha accident

and new safetymeasures, and

installation of gasproduction facilities.

1996Peak PM= 1.02 Gb/y

= 2.79 Mb/d

Annual/PeakP

roduction(PA/PC

%)

Production(Gb/yandMb/d)


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

2.0

2.5

2.8

1.5

1.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0.7

%

Annual Decline

01

99

97

96

98 2000

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

77

76

75

78

79

83

80

81

82

8485 86

87

88

8990

91

92

93 94

9596

97

98 99

01 02

03

04

05

06 07

2000

2.1

%

3.5

%

4.8

%

6.1

%

7.3

%

8.3

%

9.0

%

9.0

%

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Gb5.0


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Figure 8: The production histories of Oman, Syria and Yemen vary significantly in time and levelof plateaus (Table 2, BP, 2008). Their end-2007 known reserves range from 5.26 Gb for Yemen,7.2 Gb for Syria, to 14.1 Gb for Oman. The Hubbert Lines and Parabolas for all three countries canbe represented by the same normalized graphs (see Figures 9 to 14).

Oman end - 2007Produced: 8.5 GbProved: 5.6 GbTotal kn own: 14.1 Gb

Syria end - 2007Produced: 4.7 GbProved: 2.5 GbTotal known: 7.2 Gb

Yemen end - 2007Produced: 2.46 GbProved: 2.80 GbTotal known: 5.26 Gb

Yemen Peak167 Mb/y in 2002

Syria Peak218 Mb/y in 1995

Oman Peak351 Mb/y in 2001

OIL PRODUCTION FROM

OMAN, SYRIA AND YEMEN

Annu

alProduction(Millionbarrel/year-Mb/y)

AnnualProduction(Millionbarrel/day-Mb/d)

Year

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

360

260

280

300

320

340

60

40

20

0 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 9: The normalized Omani Hubbert Line became straight when depletion exceeded 20% in1986. The 22-year straight line from 1986 to 2007 points to a producing resource of 12.4 Gb, whichis 12.24% less than the known reserves (14.1 Gb). The producing resource does not account formany significant projects that are in development and booked as proved but are not detected bythe historical production. Indeed the producing resource is 22.5% less than the estimated ultimaterecoverable resources (EURR = 16.0 Gb; J. Laherrre, 2008 written communication).

PM= 325 Mb/y

Model Peak in 1999


Producing Resource

R= 12.4 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR OMAN

Model

Mid-Depletion6.2 Gb

2001 - Peak Year at 351 Mb/y

88

87

8678

79

8081

83

84

85

8289

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

9798

99

02

2000

03

04

05

06

07PA

PM

PC

R

Norm

alizedAnnual/Depletion


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

End - 2007

Produced

Proved

Total known

: 8.5 Gb

: 5.6 Gb

: 14.1 Gb

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


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241


Yemen 35.4% (3.4 versus 5.26 Gb). It is also consistently less than the ultimate recoverable resources

(EURR) as estimated by the creaming curve (J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication): for Oman22.5% (12.4 versus16.0 Gb), Syria 21.3% (5.9 versus7.5 Gb), and Yemen 15.0% (3.4 versus4.0 Gb).

These comparisons illustrate another pitfall in the Hubbert Line technique namely that historicalproduction data may not account for significant undeveloped but proved and/or probable reserves.In such cases, the annual decline should again become less steep as the new projects go onstream.Indeed the predictions made by Syrias Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources S. Alaw (MEES,2008) in September 2008 highlight this pitfall. He stated that Syria had recoverable oil reserves of7.0 Gb, or 5.0 Gb greater than reported in BP (2008). Adding the produced (4.7 Gb) and proved (7.0Gb) raises the known reserves to 11.7 Gb, or c. 4.0 Gb greater than the estimated ultimate resources of7.5 Gb (J. Laherrre, 2008, written communication). Moreover, the Minister stated that oil productionin 2008 would increase by 5 Kb/d relative to 2007 thus reversing decline, and would remain above320 Kb/d until 2020. His 2020 prediction for production is more than three times greater than the onepredicted in Figure 12.

Figure 10: Oman's production has closely followed the parabolic trajectory since 1986. By end-2007depletion was 69% of the producing resource, production was at 74.7% of the peak level and theannual decline rate was about 4.5%/y in 2007. The decline curve is expected to become less steepas new projects start producing in the future.


Produced 8.5 Gb Proved 5.6 Gb

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

FOR OMAN

Annual/Peak

Production(PA/PC

%)

Production(Mb/y

andKb/d)

Depletion (D = PC/R) Cumulative Production/Ultimate Resource (%)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

890

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0.5

%

Annual Decline

0199

2000 02 0304

05

06

0708

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

20

27

7776

75

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

67

78

79

83

80

8182

84

85

86

87

88

89

9091

92

93

94

9596

97 98 99 01

02

03

04

05

06

07

2000

1.6

%

2.6

%

3.5

%

4.5

%

5.3

%

6.1

%

6.7

%

6.6

%

10.0 Gb5.0

1999

Peak PM= 325 Mb/y= 891 Kb/d


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Figure 11: The normalized Syrian Hubbert Line became straight when depletionexceeded 30% in 1991.

PM= 219 Mb/y

Model Peak in 1998


Peoducing Resource

R= 5.9 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR SYRIA

ModelMid-Depletion

2.85 Gb


8887

86

8584

83

828180

79

78

89

9091

92 93

94

96

9798

99

01

200002

03

04

05

06

07PA

PM

CP

R

NormalizedAnnual/D

epletion


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

End - 2007

Produced

Proved

Total known

: 4.7 Gb

: 2.5 Gb

: 7.2 Gb

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Figure 12: Syria's production has closely followed the parabolic trajectory since the early 1990s.


Produced 4.7 Gb Proved 2.5 Gb

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

FOR SYRIA

Annual/PeakProduction(PA/PC

%)

Production(Mb/yandKb/d)


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0 0

50

100

150

200

220

200

300

400

500

600

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0.7%

Annual Decline

01

9998

2000

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

77

76

75

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

78

79

83

80

81

82

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

9394

95

9697

98

9901

02

03

04

05

06

07

2000

2.2%

3.6%

5.0%

6.3%

7.6%

8.7%

9.5%

9.4%

5.0 Gb1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Peak PM= 219 Mb/y= 601 Kb/d


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Figure 13: The normalized Yemeni Hubbert Line became straight when depletionexceeded 30% in 1998.

PM= 163 Mb/yModel Peak in 2002


Producing Resource

R= 3.4 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR YEMEN

ModelMid-Depletion

1.7 Gb


92 93 9594 96

97

98

99

012000

0304

05

0607PA

PM

PC

R

NormalizedAnnu

al/Depletion


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

End - 2007

Produced

Proved

Total known

: 2.46 Gb

: 2.80 Gb

: 5.26 Gb

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Figure 14: Yemen's production has closely followed the parabolic trajectory since the late 1990s.The depletion rate of 4.8% over the plateau was the highest amongst the five countries studied inthis paper. As a result the plateau was the the briefest.


Produced 2.46 GbProved2.86 Gb

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

FOR YEMEN

Annual/PeakProduction(PA/PC

%)

Production(Mb/yandKb/d)


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0 0

50

100

150

200

300

400

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1.0

%

Annual Decline

02

0304

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

8586

87

88

8990

91

92

93

94 9596

9798

99

01

02

03

04 05

06

07

2000

2.9

%

4.7

%

6.5

%

8.2

%

9.8

%

11.2

%

12.3

%

12.1

%

1.0 2.0 3.0 Gb

2002Peak PM= 163.5 Mb/y

= 448 Kb/d


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Table 4Reserves and Production for Oil-Producing Countries

(Ranked according to Ratio of 2007 to Maximum Past Production; BP, 2008).

Country Reserves

(Gb)

World

Share

Max

Year

Maximum

Production

2007

Production

2007/Max

Production

2007

Share

Angola 9.0 0.73% 2007 1,723 1,723 100.0% 2.2%

Azerbaijan 7.0 0.57% 2007 868 868 100.0% 1.1%

Brazil 12.6 1.02% 2007 1,833 1,833 100.0% 2.3%

Canada 27.7 2.24% 2007 3,309 3,309 100.0% 4.1%

China 15.5 1.25% 2007 3,743 3,743 100.0% 4.8%

Kazakhstan 39.8 3.21% 2007 1,490 1,490 100.0% 1.8%

Other Africa 0.6 0.05% 2007 85 85 100.0% 0.1%

Qatar 27.4 2.21% 2007 1,197 1,197 100.0% 1.4%

Sudan 6.6 0.53% 2007 457 457 100.0% 0.6%

Thailand 0.5 0.04% 2007 309 309 100.0% 0.3%

HUBBERT MODEL FOR OTHER COUNTRIES AND BASINS

The Hubbert Model for the five countries considered so far offered useful insights regarding theirreserves, resources and production. In all cases their E&P activities are driven by production-sharingagreements (PSA), which result in production rapidly converging on the Hubbert Model. In general,the model works well for regions that have undergone major early development, have a geographically

limited resource base and are in an early phase of reserves growth efforts (T. Ahlbrandt, 2008, writtencommunication). It will not generally apply to countries that do not meet some of these preconditions;some examples are Algerias Ghadames Basin, Neuquen Basin in South America, Brazilian and USoffshore where large deepwater discoveries have recently been made (Ahlbrandt and Klett, 2005), orthe USAs San Joaquin Valley heavy oils and Permian Basin (Nehring 2006a, b, c).

Another important example where Hubberts Model does not apply is represented by the Gulf-5countries (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), which together accountfor 58% of the reported World proved reserves (c. 720 Gb; Table 4, BP, 2008). Their production ismultimodal and mainly been determined by non-geological factors described as an undulatingplateau (T. Ahlbrandt, 2008, written communication). Their known reserves are currently at c. 30%depletion some more, some less. For these countries, the historical production data do not plot

as a straight Hubbert Line and cannotbe used to predict future production profiles or estimate theproducing resources.

Irans Production, Reserves and Resources

Irans production illustrates to some degree some of the uncertainties and errors that occur whenapplying the Hubbert Model to countries with undulating plateaus (see review of Iran inAl-Husseini,2007). Irans production ramped-up quickly in the 1960s and early 1970s reaching an early peak of6.02 Mb/d in 1974. It plateaud in the range of c. 56 Mb/d until 1979, after which it dropped to1.56 Mb/d in 1981 during the Iran-Iraq War. Since the end of the War, Irans production has risensteadily reaching 4.4 Mb/d in 2007 (crude oil and condensates). Irans E&P strategy is not driven byPSA contracts; nevertheless, the country seeks to continuously maximize production and reserves.

By 2007, c. 65 Gb was produced and remaining proved reserves were 138.4 Gb, totaling 203.4 Gbin known reserves (BP, 2008). The reserves are reported as primaryand secondary, the latter mostlyinvolving gas-injection EOR projects in mature reservoirs.

Contrary to the Hubbert Model prediction, the 1974 peak was attained when cumulative productionwas only c. 10% (c. 20 Gb), compared to 50% depletion in the model. When the Hubbert Line wastentatively applied to Irans 19912007 data, the producing resource (R) was found to range between156177 Gb, some 1323% less than the known reserves (203.4 Gb). The peak rate at mid-depletion wasfound to vary from 4.54.7 Mb/d and to occur in ca. 2020. These results suggest that it is unlikely that


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Uzbekistan 0.6 0.05% 1999 191 114 59.7% 0.1%

Peru 1.1 0.09% 1982 196 114 58.2% 0.1%

Indonesia 4.4 0.36% 1991 1,685 969 57.5% 1.2%

UK 3.6 0.29% 1999 2,909 1,636 56.2% 2.0%

Libya 41.5 3.35% 1970 3,357 1,848 55.0% 2.2%

Cameroon 0.00% 1985 181 82 45.3% 0.1%

Romania 0.5 0.04% 1977 313 105 33.5% 0.1%

1,238.0 100% 85,698 81,540 77.6% 100%

Canadian Oil Sands

World Subtotal

World Total

152.2 Not in production

1,390.2

Table 4 (Continued)(Production in Million barrels per day, Mb/d).

Country Reserves

(Gb)

Reserves

Share

Max

Year

Maximum

Production

2007

Production

2007/Max

Production

2007

Share

Algeria 12.3 0.99% 2005 2,014 2,000 99.3% 2.2%

India 5.5 0.44% 2004 812 801 98.6% 1.2%

Italy 0.8 0.06% 1997 124 122 98.4% 0.2%

UAE 97.8 7.90% 2006 2,971 2,915 98.1% 3.5%

Turkmenistan 0.6 0.05% 2003 202 198 98.0% 0.3%

Equatorial Guinea 1.8 0.15% 2005 373 363 97.3% 0.5%

Malaysia 5.4 0.44% 1998 779 755 96.9% 0.9%

Ecuador 4.3 0.35% 2006 545 525 96.3% 0.7%

Saudi Arabia 264.2 21.34% 2005 11,114 10,413 93.7% 12.6%

Other S&C America 1.3 0.11% 2003 153 141 92.2% 0.2%

Nigeria 36.2 2.92% 2005 2,580 2,356 91.3% 2.9%

Mexico 12.2 0.99% 2004 3,824 3,477 90.9% 4.4%

Russia 79.4 6.41% 1987 11,484 9,978 86.9% 12.6%

Other Asia-Pacific 0.9 0.07% 1993 276 234 84.8% 0.3%

Congo 1.9 0.15% 1999 266 222 83.5% 0.3%

Chad 0.9 0.07% 2005 173 144 83.2% 0.2%

Tunisia 0.6 0.05% 1980 118 98 83.1% 0.1%

Denmark 1.1 0.09% 2004 390 312 80.0% 0.4%

Vietnam 3.4 0.27% 2004 427 340 79.6% 0.4%

Kuwait 101.5 8.20% 1972 3,339 2,626 78.6% 3.3%

Argentina 2.6 0.21% 1998 890 698 78.4% 0.9%

Egypt 4.1 0.33% 1993 941 710 75.5% 0.9%

Venezuela 87.0 7.03% 1998 3,480 2,613 75.1% 3.4%

Norway 8.2 0.66% 2001 3,418 2,556 74.8% 3.0%Oman 5.6 0.45% 2001 961 718 74.7% 0.9%

Brunei 1.2 0.10% 1979 261 194 74.3% 0.2%

Yemen 2.8 0.23% 2002 457 336 73.5% 0.4%

Iran 138.4 11.18% 1974 6,060 4,401 72.6% 5.4%

Australia 4.2 0.34% 2000 809 561 69.3% 0.6%

Trinidad/Tobago 0.8 0.06% 1978 230 154 67.0% 0.2%

Colombia 1.5 0.12% 1999 838 561 66.9% 0.7%

Other Middle East 0.1 0.01% 2002 48 32 66.7%

Syria 2.5 0.20% 1995 596 394 66.1% 0.5%

Gabon 2.0 0.16% 1996 365 230 63.0% 0.3%

Iraq 115.0 9.29% 1979 3,489 2,145 61.5% 2.7%

USA 29.4 2.37% 1970 11,297 6,879 60.9% 8.0%

Other Europe-Eurasia 2.1 0.17% 1986 762 456 59.8% 0.6%


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Irans production will reach the 56 Mb/d 1970s level. This prediction is supported by reports thatIrans annual natural decline in the main mature reservoirs ranges between 250500 Kb/d between5.811.6%/year (see references inAl-Husseini, 2007). This range of decline is large enough to nearlyoffset new production.

Maximum Past to Current Production Ratio

In Table 4, oil-producing countries are ranked in terms of the maximum level of past productioncompared to their production in 2007 (2007/Past Ratio); for example, Irans 2007-to-1974 ratio is72.6% (100 x 4.40/6.06). Also shown are reserves and production statistics (BP, 2008), which providean approximate overview regarding which countries may have production still rising, on-a-plateauor in decline. Countries with year 2007 marking maximum production (2007/Past Ratio = 100%) areclearly in the rising mode. Those with 2007 production at better than 90% of their past maximumlevel are probably on their plateau and may be capable of raising production. Countries with ratiosof 8090% are probably on the plateau, but unlikely to increase production. Those with ratios of lessthan 80% may be either in the late plateau or in decline.

Iraq with proved reserves of 115 Gb is specifically noted for having an exceptionally low ratio of

61.5%; little doubt exists that the past peak level of c. 3.5 Mb/d can be significantly surpassed.Table 4 shows that nearly 62% of total 2007 World production is from countries that have a potentialto increase production (2007/Past > 80%) and these hold a 54% share of World reserves (excludingCanadian oil sands). Another 38% of 2007 production is from countries with ratios of less than 80%corresponding to 46% of reported reserves; these countries are unlikely to increase their production(except for Iraq, which accounted for a production share of 2.7% in 2007).

PRODUCTION BASE CASE FOR WORLD CONVENTIONALPETROLEUM LIQUIDS

The historical productions of many countries do not plot along a straight Hubbert Line, and thereforethe Worlds producing resource cannotbe determined by adding up estimates for individual countries.Instead this section starts out by applying the Hubbert Line to total World production in order toestimate the producing resource (R), peak and plateau production levels and peak year (at mid-depletion); these results are referred to as the Production Base Case and compared to those obtainedby other analysis.

Annual and Cumulative Production Data Base

The Worlds annual production data (PA) are listed in Table 5 and plotted in Figure 15, along withthe price of oil in 2007-adjusted US dollars (BP, 2008). The Worlds cumulative production (P C) wascalibrated at end-1997 at 838 Gb (Ivanhoe, 2000) and BPs annual production data were used tocalculate PCfor other years. The resulting PCcompare closely with published ones for other years; forexample within 14 Gb to the estimates by Hubbert (1969) and the EIA (1985, 1987), by c. 2% (17 Gb)for 1993 (Shell data inRomm and Curtis, 1996; Edwards, 1997) and 1% (10 Gb) for end-2004 (de Sousa,2008) and end-2005 (R. Nehring, 2006, AAPG Hedberg Research Conference, November 2006).

Base Case Estimate for Producing Resource (R)

The Worlds production profile is multimodal (Figure 15) and somewhat comparable to that of theUK (compare Figures 2 and 15). The main build-up phase occurred between 19501974 when manygiant fields were brought into production; between 19601974 production grew c. 2.3 Mb/d annuallywhile oil prices remained between $1015/barrel (in 2007 dollars). This phase ended with a 3.0 Mb/ddrop in 1975, due mainly to the Arab oil embargo. Following the 1975 valley, the years 19761979 sawthe oil price quadruple and the production trajectory turning upwards. A second valley occurredbetween 19791985 due to several factors including the Iran-Iraq War (19801986), as well as peaksor plateaus in many countries. These included the USAs Lower-48 States 1970 peak, total USA (withAlaska) peak in 1985, the 19741979 Gulf-5 plateau (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UnitedArab Emirates). In the 1970s the USA and Gulf-5 alone accounted for 50% of World production.


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In Figure 15, a new build-up trend is evident between 19852007; it shows that production growthwas halved relative to the 19601970s (from 2.3 to 1.1 Mb/d) even though prices doubled on average(from $1015 to $2535/barrel). When the data is plotted along the normalized Hubbert Line, the1990s2007 interval forms the most current straight-line trend, and in particular the 19952007 datawas used to estimate the Worlds producing resource as 2,860 Gb (Table 1, Figure 16). This estimatevaried by only 50 Gb when the regression was started from 1993 through 1997 and ended in 2007.Estimates for the producing resource started from 1998 and later years varied by as much as 2,860 300 Gb. The Production Base Case estimate of c. 2,860 Gb was chosen as the average for the overallinterval 1990s2007. It is 351 Gb (14%) greater than the end-2007 known reserves of 2,509 Gb, consistingof 1,119 Gb produced, 1,238 Gb proved and 152 Gb for undeveloped Canadian oil sands (BP, 2008;Table 1 and Figure 1).

Comparison of World Resource Using Hubberts Model

The Base Case estimate for the producing resource is substantially greater than those obtained withthe same Hubbert Line technique by Deffeyes (2005) at 2,013 Gb, and de Sousa (2008) at 2,165 Gb.This discrepancy is apparently due to their lines being applied to a much longer time interval, whichincluded years that reflected constrained production. The time interval 19832003 used by Deffeyes

Table 5

Price and Production of Oil for the World (BP, 2008).

Year Price

$Price

2007$Daily

Kb/dAnnual

Mb/y Year

Price

$Price

2007$Daily

Kb/dAnnual

Mb/y

1950 1.71 14.81 10,420 3,803

1951 1.71 13.72 11,730 4,281

1952 1.71 13.42 12,340 4,5041953 1.93 15.04 13,150 4,800

1954 1.93 14.96 13,740 5,015

1955 1.93 15.03 15,410 5,625

1956 1.93 14.80 16,780 6,125

1957 1.90 14.06 17,640 6,439

1958 2.08 15.00 18,100 6,607

1959 2.08 14.88 19,540 7,132

1960 1.90 13.37 21,030 7,676

1961 1.80 12.54 22,430 8,187

1962 1.80 12.40 24,330 8,880

1963 1.80 12.24 26,130 9,5371964 1.80 12.09 28,250 10,311

1965 1.80 11.89 31,806 11,609

1966 1.80 11.53 34,571 12,618

1967 1.80 11.23 37,121 13,549

1968 1.80 10.78 40,438 14,760

1969 1.80 10.23 43,635 15,927

1970 1.80 9.65 48,064 17,543

1971 2.24 11.53 50,846 18,559

1972 2.48 12.36 53,668 19,589

1973 3.29 15.42 58,465 21,340

1974 11.58 48.92 58,618 21,3961975 11.53 44.64 55,826 20,376

1976 12.80 46.84 60,412 22,050

1977 13.92 47.83 62,714 22,891

1978 14.02 44.77 63,332 23,116

1979 31.61 90.68 66,050 24,108

1980 36.83 93.08 62,948 22,976

1981 35.93 82.25 59,595 21,752

1982 32.97 71.08 57,298 20,9141983 29.55 61.73 57,686 21,055

1984 28.78 56.14 57,686 21,055

1985 27.56 53.21 57,472 20,977

1986 14.43 27.22 60,467 22,070

1987 18.44 33.64 60,790 22,188

1988 14.92 26.24 63,165 23,055

1989 18.23 30.47 64,056 23,380

1990 23.73 37.82 65,477 23,899

1991 20.00 30.57 65,294 23,832

1992 19.32 28.65 65,802 24,018

1993 16.97 24.52 66,058 24,1111994 15.82 23.37 67,129 24,502

1995 17.02 23.40 68,132 24,868

1996 20.67 27.54 69,939 25,528

1997 19.09 24.97 72,231 26,364

1998 12.72 16.69 73,588 26,860

1999 17.97 22.74 72,377 26,418

2000 28.50 34.92 74,916 27,344

2001 24.44 29.03 74,847 27,319

2002 25.02 29.06 74,478 27,184

2003 28.83 32.51 77,031 28,116

2004 38.27 42.02 80,326 29,3192005 54.52 57.90 81,255 29,658

2006 65.14 67.03 81,659 29,806

2007 72.39 72.39 81,533 29,760

Cumulative Production: 1,119 Billion barrels (Gb)


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Figure 15: The price of oil (in 2007-adjusted US dollars) and production history of petroleumliquids for the World are from BP (2008). The 19501974 build-up phase took production fromabout 4 billion barrels/y (Gb/y) to 21 Gb/y. Between 1960 and 1974 production increased onaverage by 2.3 million barrels per day (Mb/d) annually while the price of oil remained betweenUS$1015/barrel. The period between 1974 and 1985 included several important geological events(USA Lower-48 States and Iran peaked) and non-geological events (Arab Oil Embargo, Iran-Iraq

War) with prices between US$4090/barrel. After the 1986 oil-price crash, World production grewat a more moderate rate of about 1.1 Mb/d at US$2535/barrel. The trend between 19912007 formsa straight line when plotted in Figure 16, with a predicted peak in 2016 at 31.3 Gb/y (85.7 Mb/d,compared to 81.5 Mb/d for 2007, BP, 2008).

WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

(Includes Condensates

and NGL, BP, 2008)

AnnualProduction(Billionbarrel/year-Gb/y)

(Millionbarrel/dayMb/d)

PriceofOilperBarrel(2007-US$)

Year

1986Oil Price Crash

ArabOil

Embargo

USA-48Peak1970

AllUSAPeak1985

1974 Iran Peak

1980-1986Iran-Iraq

War

2007 at29.76 Gb/y(81.5 Mb/d)

Price of Oil(2007 Dollars)

1985-2007Ramp

AnnualGrowth

1.1Mb/yat$25-35

2016 at31.3 Gb/y

(85.7 Mb/d)

2030 at28.5 Gb/y

(78.0 Mb/d)

1960

-197

4Build

-up

Ann

ualG

rowth

2.3Mb/

yat

$10

-15

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

6

4

2

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

85

10

Figure 16: The normalized World Hubbert Line has been straight since 1991; the 19952007 datapoints to an estimate of producing resource of 2,860 Gb, which exceeds the known reserves (2,509

Gb) by 14% (Table 1). It closely corresponds to the USGS-95% confidence estimate for end-2025(Table 5). The depletion level of the producing resource is estimated to be 39% at end-2007. Themid-depletion level corresponds to a maximum sustainable level of 31.3 Gb/y (85.7 Mb/d,compared to 81.5 Mb/d for 2007, BP, 2008).

PM= 31.3 Gb/y

Model Peak in 2016

19822003Straight Line

2,046 Gb

19952007Straight Line

Producing Resource

R= 2,860 Gb

NORMALIZED HUBBERT LINE FOR THE WORLD

ModelMid-Depletion

1,430 Gb

1982

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

PA

PM

PC

R

NormalizedAnnua

l/Depletion


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

End - 2007

Cumulative Production

Proved Reserves

Canadian Oil Sands

: 1,119 Gb

: 1,238 Gb

: 152 Gb

Known Reserves : 2,509 Gb

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


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(2005) was here found to predict a resource of 2,046 Gb (Figure 16). This interval included the laterpart of the 19801986 Iran-Iraq War, which reduced supplies by some 56 Mb/d for several years. Italso included the period of reduced global demand, which in turn caused OPEC to cut productionby more than 10 Mb/d from about 1981 until 1993. Moreover, due to low oil prices and demand, thenon-OPEC countries also substantially reduced their E&P activities during most of the late 1980s and1990s.

Clearly the production data is time-dependent and in particular the 1980s were unrepresentative ofthe Hubbert Line; especially when the 1990s2007 data clearly form a distinct new straight-line trend(Figure 16). The 1990s-2007 average straight line suggests that the Worlds production is following aHubbert Parabola with an estimated producing resource of c. 2,860 Gb (Figure 17), a quantity that ismore consistent with geological studies noted below.

Figure 17: Since 1995 World production has been following a parabolic trajectory corresponding to27% to 39% depletion. Between 39% (end-2007) and 60% depletion at end-2025 it is predicted toremain at a plateau level of between 29.76 and 31.3 Gb/y (81.5 and 85.7 Mb/d). By 2030 it isestimated to decline to 28.5 Gb/y (78.0 Mb/y). The maximum depletion rate over the plateau ispredicted to be 1.1%/y of the producing resource. The annual decline rate is predicted to be about1.1%/y between 2025 and 2030.

2007 at 39% Depletion Canadian Oil Sands

Producing Resource 2,860 Gb forBP defined oil (crude oil, lease condensate, NGL

Canadian oil sands, oil shale;no biofuels or coal derivatives)

Actual Production (not consumption,not production capacity)

Cumulative Produced 1,119 Gb Proved Reserves 1,238 Gb152Gb

Unknown351 Gb

WORLD

HUBBERT

PARABOLA

Annual/PeakProd

uction(PA/PC

%)

Production(

Gb/yandMb/d)


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30

20

10

0 0

10

5

20

15

30

25

31.3

10

30

50

70

40

60

80

85.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0.7

%

Annual DeclineIncrease

2.860

Gb

2025

30

35

40

45

80

70

60

50

55

65

75

85

86

87

8889

9091

92

93

94

95

9697 98

99

01

02

03

04 05

50

55

6061626364

65

66

67

6869

70

71

72

7374

75

767778

79

8081

82

8384

06

07

2000

0.2

%

0.2

%

0.7

%

1.1

%

1.5

%

1.9

%

2.2

%

2.6

%

2.8

%

2.8

%

500 2,000 2,500 Gb1,5001,000

2016

at 31.3 Gb/y(85.7 Mb/d)relative to

81.5 Mb/d in 2007

2007 at 29.76 Gb/y(81.5 Mb/d)


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Comparison of Base Case ProducingResource to Geological Studies ofEstimated Ultimate Recoverable

Resources (EURR)

USGS 95% Confidence EURRThe most recent study of conventional petro-leum resources (crude oil, lease condensatesand NGL) was completed in 2000 by theUnited States Geological Survey (USGS) andsummarized by Ahlbrandt et al. (2005). TheUSGS does not predict future production,peaks or plateaus. They estimated unknownresources (undiscovered and reserves growth)for the period 1996 to 2025, and used IHS datafor end-1995 known reserves (produced 710 Gb,proved 959 Gb) but did not include Canadian

oil sands. By adding 152 Gb for the latter, theknown reserves for end-1995 are 1,821 Gb. InTable 6, the USGS unknown resources for theirthree cited probabilities are added to BPs (2008)quantities for end-1995 known reserves. TheBase Case producing resource (2,860 Gb) is just3% greater than the 95%-confidence ultimaterecoverable resources (EURR = 2,770 Gb; USGS-95%for short), involving an unknown resourceof 805 Gb.

The USGS-95% unknown resource (805 Gb)may prove to be approximately correct by 2025,the ending year for their projection (Klett et al.,2005). Consider that between end-1995, whenthe USGS study was closed, to end-2007, knownreserves (produced plus proved, excludingCanadian oil sands for consistency with USGScriteria) increased by 544 Gb from 1,813 to2,357 Gb (BP, 2008). Therefore, of the unknownresource of 805 Gb, 544 Gb was accounted for byend-2007, and the difference of 261 Gb remainsto be added between 20082025 as undiscoveredand growth. This translates to adding c. 14.5 Gbannually for the subsequent 18 years, which is

achievable if the reserves additions of c. 20 Gbin 2005 are maintained to 2025 (Chew, 2006,

based on the IHS data base). Noteworthy is that of the 20 Gb in added reserves in 2005, 12 Gb wasdiscovered whereas the remainder was attributed to reserves growth.

Higher EURRThe Base Case producing resource is 21% less than the USGS Mean EURR (2000; Ahlbrandt et al.,2005) of 3,634 Gb (Table 6) by end-2025. It is 13% less than the estimated resources of crude oil, leasecondensates and NGL reported in Edwards (1997; 3,298 Gb, Table 7) for the end of this century. TheBase Case falls in the middle range of the 136 estimates compiled by Ahlbrandt (2004, 2006; see alsoNational Petroleum Council, 2007) and below estimates for crude oil only by two oil companies(reported at the meeting of the National Academy of Science, Washington D.C., USA, October 2021,

2005): 3,200 Gb (S. Nauman, ExxonMobil) and 3,000 Gb (D. Paul, ChevronTexaco). Jackson (2006,Table 8) estimated the ultimate resources for conventional petroleum liquids at 3,673 Gb, essentially

Table 6

USGS (2000, Ahlbrandt et al., 2005)

(Billion barrels - Gb).

End-1995 to 2025

Cumulative Production, end-1995(BP, 2008)

Proved Reserves, end-1995(BP, 2008)

Canadian Oil Sands, end-2007(BP, 2008)

Total Known Reserves

at 95% Confidence for end-2025

Undiscovered Oil (non-USA)

Undiscovered Oil+NGL (USA)

Reserves Growth Oil (non-USA)

Reserves Growth Oil+NGL (USA)

Undiscovered NGL (non-USA)

Reserves Growth NGL (non-USA)Total New Resources

Total Petroleum Liquids

at Mean Confidence for end-2025






Reserves Growth NGL (non-USA)

Total New Resources


at 5% Confidence for end-2025






Reserves Growth NGL (non-USA)

786

1,027

152

334

66

192

76

95

42

649

83

612

76

207

42

1,017

104

1,031

76

378

42

Total New Resources


1,965

805

2,770

1,669

3,634

2,648

4,613


41/53

ADVERT


42/53

256

Al-Husseini

the Mean USGS EURR. Taken together withunconventional petroleum liquid resourcesof 1,148 Gb, he estimated total oil resources at4,820 Gb.

Lower EURRIn contrast to the above noted higher estimatesof resources, C. Campbell (2008, writtencommunication) considered regular conventionaloil as being the primary category of petroleumliquids that is relevant to consider in theprediction of peak oil. He defines this category toexclude (1) oil from coal and shale, (2) bitumen(oil sands), (3) extra-heavy and heavy oil (lessthan 17.5oAPI), (4) deepwater oil (> 500 m), (5)polar (Arctic) oil, and (6) NGL from gas plants.He estimates the Worlds ultimate reserves of

regular conventional oil is about 1,900 Gb.

J. Laherrre (2008, written communication)estimated the petroleum liquids resources atbetween 2,700 and 3,000 Gb as follows: (1) crudeoil at 2,000 Gb, (2) NGL and gas-to-liquids at250 Gb, (3) refinery gains, oil sands and coal-to-liquids between 150250 Gb, and (4) extra-heavyoil between 300500 Gb. His estimate for crudeoil and NGL (2,250 Gb) added to BPs oil sands(152 Gb) amounts to about 2,400 Gb comparedto 2,860 Gb for the Base Case. Moreover, he

considered estimates as high as 3,0004,000 Gbto be very unlikely.

Production CostsThe focus by Campbell and Laherrre on regular conventional oil and/or liquids is intended bythese authors to emphasize the much greate

Oil World Production 2030

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