Oil Shale Market 2011-2021

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Contents

1.1 The Oil Shale Market Overview

1.2 Drivers and Restraints in the Oil Shale Market

1.2.1 Drivers in the Oil Shale Market

1.2.2 Restraints in the Oil Shale Market

1.3 Highlights of the Report

1.4 Benefits of the Report

1.5 Methodology

1.6 The Global Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

1.7 The Leading National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021

2.1 History of the Oil Shale Industry

2.2 Oil Shale and Shale Oil

2.3 Oil Shale Extraction Methods

2.3.1 Mining and Above Ground Retorting Process

2.3.2 In-Situ Retorting Process2.4 Oil Shale Resources

2.5 Oil Shale Production

3.1 The Global Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

3.2 Recent Developments in the Global Oil Shale Market

3.3 Global Oil Shale Market Drivers and Restraints 2011-20213.4 Global Oil Shale Market Drivers

3.4.1 Substantial Oil Shale Resources

3.4.2 Oil Price Forecasts

3.4.3 Technological Improvements

3.4.4 Desire for Energy Security

1. Executive Summar

2. Introduction to the Oil Shale Market

3. The Global Oil Shale Market

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3.5 Global Oil Shale Market Restraints

3.5.1 High Costs

3.5.2 Need for Further Testing

3.5.3 Global Warming Concerns

3.5.4 Other Environmental Concerns

4.1 The United States Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.1.1 United States Oil Shale Resources

4.1.2 History of the United States Oil Shale Industry

4.1.3 United States Oil Shale Development

4.1.4 United States Oil Consumption and Production

4.2 The Chinese Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.2.1 Chinese Oil Shale Resources

4.2.2 Chinese Oil Shale Projects

4.2.3 Chinese Oil Consumption and Production

4.3 The Jordanian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.3.1 Jordanian Oil Shale Resources4.3.2 Investments in the Jordanian Oil Shale Market

4.3.3 Partnerships with Other Countries

4.4 The Estonian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.4.1 Estonian Oil Shale Resources

4.4.2 Estonian Oil Shale Projects

4.5 The Uzbek Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.5.1 Uzbek Oil Shale Resources

4.5.2 Uzbek Oil Shale Development

4.6 The Australian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.6.1 Australian Oil Shale Resources

4.6.2 Australian Oil Shale Projects

4.6.3 Australian Oil Consumption and Production

4.7 The Israeli Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4. Leading National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021

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4.7.1 Israeli Oil Shale Resources

4.7.2 Israeli Oil Shale Development

4.8 The Moroccan Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.8.1 Moroccan Oil Shale Resources

4.8.2 Investments in the Moroccan Oil Shale Market


4.9 The Brazilian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.9.1 Brazilian Oil Shale Resources

4.9.2 The Petrosix Process

4.9.3 Brazilian Oil Shale Investments

4.10 The Russian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.10.1 Russian Oil Shale Resources

4.10.2 Russian Oil Shale Potential

4.10.3 Russian Oil Consumption and Production

4.11 The Canadian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.11.1 Canadian Oil Shale Resources

4.11.2 Canadian Oil Shale Potential

4.12 The Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.12.1 Egyptian Oil Shale Resources

4.12.2 Investments in the Egyptian Oil Shale Market4.12.3 Partnerships with Other Countries

4.13 The Syrian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.13.1 Syrian Oil Shale Resources

4.13.2 Syrian Oil Shale Development


4.14 The Indian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.14.1 Indian Oil Shale Resources

4.14.2 Indian Oil Production and Consumption

4.15 The Rest of the World Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

4.15.1 The Argentinean Oil Shale Market

4.15.2 The Democratic Republic of the Congo Oil Shale Market

4.15.3 The German Oil Shale Market

4.15.4 The Italian Oil Shale Market

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6.3.4 The Conduction, Convection, Reflux (CCR) Process

6.3.5 The Kiviter Process

6.3.6 The Galoter Process

6.3.7 The Petrosix Process

6.3.8 The Fushun Process

6.3.9 Geothermic Fuel Cell (GFC) Technology

6.3.10 The Paraho Process

6.3.11 The Petro Probe Process

6.3.12 The Alberta Taciuk Process (ATP)

7.1 Independent Energy Partners (IEP)

7.1.1 Confusion in the US Oil Shale Market

7.1.2 Advantages of the Geothermic Fuel Cell (GFC) Technology

7.1.3 GFC Technology Commercialisation Plans

7.1.4 Opportunities in the Canadian Oil Shale Market

7.1.5 Opportunities in the Chinese Oil Shale Market

7.2 EnShale Energy

7.2.1 Confusion in the US Oil Shale Market7.2.2 US Oil Shale Market Potential

7.2.3 EnShales Technological Advantages

7.2.4 EnShales Plans for Commercial Development

7.2.5 The Importance of the Federal Government

7.2.6 Oil Shale Opportunities Outside the US

8.1 A.F.S.K Hom Tov

8.2 Alstom

8.3 Ambre Energy North America

8.4 American Shale Oil, LLC (AMSO)

8.5 AuraSource Inc.

8. Leading Companies in the Oil Shale Market

7. Expert Opinion

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8.6 Baraka Energy & Resources

8.7 Chattanooga Corporation

8.8 Chevron Corporation

8.9 China National Petroleum Company (CNPC)

8.10 Eesti Energia

8.11 Enefit American Oil

8.12 EnShale Energy

8.13 ExxonMobil

8.14 Fushun Mining Group

8.15 General Synfuels International

8.16 Global Resource Corporation

8.17 Independent Energy Partners (IEP)

8.18 Inter RAO

8.19 Israel Energy Initiatives (IEI)

8.20 Jordan Energy and Mining Limited

8.21 Lukoil

8.22 Mountain West Energy (MWE)

8.23 Petrobras

8.24 Queensland Energy Resources (QER)

8.25 Red Leaf Resources8.26 Royal Dutch Shell

8.27 San Leon Energy

8.28 Schlumberger

8.29 Shale Technologies, LLC

8.30 Uzbekneftegaz

8.31 Viru Keemia Grupp (VKG)

8.32 Xtract Energy

8.33Yacimientos Petrolferos Fiscales (YPF)

9.1 Outlook for the Global Oil Shale Market 2011-2021

9.2 Outstanding Growth Nations in the Oil Shale Market

9.3 High Growth Nations in the Oil Shale Market

9. Conclusions

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9.4 Moderate Growth Nations in the Oil Shale Market

9.5 Low Growth Nations in the Oil Shale Market

9.6 Global Oil Shale Market Summary

10. Glossary

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Table 2.1 Top 10 National In-Place Oil Shale Resources (Million Barrels, %)

Table 3.1 Global Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 3.2 Global Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 3.3 Global Oil Shale Market Drivers and Restraints 2011-2021

Table 4.1 Leading National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.2 Leading National Oil Shale Markets Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.3 United States Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.4 United States Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.5 Drivers and Restraints in the United States Oil Shale Market

Table 4.6 Chinese Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.7 Chinese Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.8 Drivers and Restraints in the Chinese Oil Shale Market

Table 4.9 Jordanian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.10 Jordanian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.11 Drivers and Restraints in the Jordanian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.12 Estonian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.13 Estonian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.14 Drivers and Restraints in the Estonian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.15 Uzbek Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.16 Uzbek Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.17 Drivers and Restraints in the Uzbek Oil Shale Market

Table 4.18 Australian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.19 Australian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.20 Drivers and Restraints in the Australian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.21 Israeli Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)Table 4.22 Israeli Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.23 Drivers and Restraints in the Israeli Oil Shale Market

Table 4.24 Moroccan Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.25 Moroccan Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.26 Drivers and Restraints in the Moroccan Oil Shale Market

List of Tables

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Table 4.27 Brazilian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.28 Brazilian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.29 Drivers and Restraints in the Brazilian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.30 Russian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.31 Russian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.32 Drivers and Restraints in the Russian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.33 Canadian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.34 Canadian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.35 Drivers and Restraints in the Canadian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.36 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.37 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.38 Drivers and Restraints in the Egyptian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.39 Syrian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.40 Syrian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.41 Drivers and Restraints in the Syrian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.42 Indian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.43 Indian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021

Table 4.44 Drivers and Restraints in the Indian Oil Shale Market

Table 4.45 RoW Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)

Table 4.46 RoW Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%) 2011-2021, 2011-2016, 2016-2021Table 4.47 Leading National Oil Shale Market Share Forecast 2011, 2016 and 2021 ($m, %)

Table 5.1 SWOT Analysis of the Oil Shale Market 2011-2021

Table 9.1 Leading National Oil Shale Markets Sizes 2011 and 2021 ($m), and 2011-2021 CAGRs (%)

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Figure 2.1 In-Situ and Conventional Oil Shale Extraction Methods

Figure 2.2 Top 10 National In-Place Oil Shale Resources (Million Barrels)

Figure 2.3 Top 10 National In-Place Oil Shale Resources (% of World Total)

Figure 2.4 Leading Oil Shale Producing Countries in 2008 (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Figure 3.1 Global Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 3.2 Global Oil Shale Market Annual Growth Rate (AGR %) Forecast 2011-2021

Figure 4.1 Leading National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.2 Breakdown of Leading 8 National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.3 Breakdown of Leading 9-14 National Oil Shale Markets Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.4 United States Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.5 United States Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.6 EIA Forecasted United States Liquid Production and Consumption, 2006-2035, Reference Case (Million

Barrels/Day)

Figure 4.7 Chinese Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.8 Chinese Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.9 EIA Forecasted Chinese Liquid Production and Consumption, 2006-2035, Reference Case (Million

Barrels/Day)

Figure 4.10 Jordanian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.11 Jordanian Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.12 Estonian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.13 Estonian Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.14 Uzbek Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.15 Uzbek Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.16 Australian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.17 Australian Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.18 EIA Forecasted Australian and New Zealand Liquid Production and Consumption, 2006-2035, Reference

Case (Million Barrels/Day)

Figure 4.19 Israeli Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Figure 4.20 Israeli Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %, CAGR %, Cumulative)

Figure 4.21 Moroccan Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

List of Figures

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A.F.S.K Hom Tov

A.F.S.K Industries Group

Alstom

Altius

Ambre Energy Limited

Ambre Energy North America

American Shale Oil, LLC (AMSO)

Apache Corporation

Atomenergoproekt

AuraSource

Baraka Energy & Resources

Blue Ensign Technologies Limited

BP

Bullion Monach Mining

Central Pacific Minerals

Chattanooga Corporation

Chevron Corporation

Chevron Shale Oil Company

China National Coal Company

China National Petroleum Company (CNPC)

China Qinzhou Kaiyuyuan New Energy Company, Ltd

Development Engineering Inc.

Earth Sciences Inc.

Eesti Energia

Enefit

Enefit American OilEnShale Energy

ExxonMobil

Forbes

Fugro Robertson Ltd.

Fushun Mining Group

Companies Mentioned in This Report

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Gansu Coal Company

General Synfuels International

Global Resource Corporation

Harbin Coal Chemical Company

Holcim

IDT Corporation

Independent Energy Partners (IEP)

Inter RAO

Israel Chemicals Ltd

Israel Energy Initiatives (IEI)

Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corp (JOGMEC)

JGC Corporation

Jilin Guangzheng Mining Company

Jordan Energy and Mining Limited

Jordan Oil Shale Company (JOSCo)

Karak International Oil (KIO)

Laguna Resources

Leningradslanets Oil Shale Mining Public Company

Longkou Coal Company

LukoilMitsui

Mountain West Energy (MWE)

Narva Elektrijaamad

Oil India Limited (OIL)

Oil-Tech

Outotec

PennWell Petroleum

Petrobras

Petro-Canada

Queensland Energy Resources (QER)

Queensland Shale Oil Limited

Red Leaf Resources

Rohrbach Zement

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Ben-Gurion University

China Environmental Protection Administration

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

European Commission

European Union (EU)

Greenpeace

Indian Central Fuel Research Institute (CFRI)

Indian Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH)International Energy Agency (IEA)

Israeli Ministry of Infrastructure

Israeli Water Authority

Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Los Alamos National Laboratory

Moroccan Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM)

Oil Shale Cooperation Centre

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Russian State Oil and Gas University

Syrian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources

US Bureau of Land Management (BLM)

US Bureau of Mines

US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

US Department of Energy (DOE)

US Geological Survey (USGS)

US Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves

World Energy Council (WEC)

Government Agencies and Other Organisations Mentioned in This Report

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The Oil Shale Market 2011-20214.12 The Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021

Table 4.36, Table 4.37, Figure 4.32 and Figure 4.33 show visiongains forecast for the Egyptian oilshale market over the next ten years.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sales $m 26 27 28 30 32 35 40 48 59 71 91 116

AGR(%) 4.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 15.0 19.0 22.0 22.0 27.0 28.0

2011-2021 2011-2016 2016-2021

CAGR (%) 15.7 8.3 23.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$m

Year

Source: Visiongain 2011

Table4.36 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m, AGR %)


Figure 4.32 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast 2011-2021 ($m)

Table 4.37 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast CAGR (%)

2011-2021, 2011-2016, and 2016-2021


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The Oil Shale Market 2011-2021

2011 2021

Market size $m $27m $116m

Global market ranking 13th 13th

Global market share %

2011-2021 CAGR % 15.7%

2011-2021 CAGR % Ranking 7th

2011-2021 Cumulative market $578m

Market Outlook High Growth

The Egyptian oil shale market will be worth $27m in 2011, visiongain calculates. Growth in the market

will be steady during the first half of the forecast period with a CAGR of 8.3%. However, as Egypt

works with other countries to develop its oil shale industry and encourages foreign investment, it will

see high levels of growth, with a CAGR of 23.6% during the second half of the forecast period from

2016-2021. Overall, the Egyptian oil shale market will see a CAGR of 15.7%, with a total market size

of $40m in 2016 and $116m by the end of the forecast period in 2021.

0.9% 1.0%


Figure 4.33 Egyptian Oil Shale Market Forecast Summary 2011-2021 ($m, Share %,

CAGR %, Cumulative)

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The Oil Shale Market 2011-2021Table 4.38 lays out the key drivers and restraints in the Egyptian oil shale market.

Drivers

Partnerships with Other Countries

Interest from Major Companies

Restraints

Fairly Limited Oil Shale Reserves

Political Uncertainty

Competition for Scarce Funding

4.12.1 Egyptian Oil Shale ResourcesOil shale was first discovered in Egypt during the 1940s when oil rocks self-ignited during the process

of phosphate mining. Egypts supplies of oil shale are found in the Safaga-Quseir area of the Eastern

Desert and the Abu Tartour area of the Western Desert. Analysis carried out in the late 1970s

estimated that the Safaga-Quseir area possessed around 4.5 billion barrels of in-place oil shale, while

the Abu Tartour area contained around 1.2 billion barrels.

4.12.2 Investments in the Egyptian Oil Shale Market

The Egyptian oil shale market is likely to be restrained by a number of factors over the next few years.Firstly, the uprising witnessed in early 2011 which unseated Hosni Mubarak has left the country with a

political vacuum. A caretaker military government is currently in control before parliamentary and

presidential elections are held in September 2011 and November 2011 respectively. This creates a

great deal of uncertainty as to the future political direction and stability of the country, which could

dissuade potential investors, particularly as there are no guarantees that the future government will

support oil shale development. The new administration is certain to be faced with competing demands

for investment, including basic demands such as improved roads and infrastructure, while in a country

which already faces water shortages, using up valuable water supplies on the extraction of oil shale

could prove unpopular.

However, this has not prevented some companies from investing in the oil shale market in Egypt. Eesti

Energia has signed a MoU to assist the local authorities in the country with their efforts to fully assess

Egypts oil shale potential, while Houston-based company Apache is interested in Egypts oil shale

potential. Although Apache admit that the oil shale potential in Egypt is uncertain, the company

Table 4.38 Drivers and Restraints in the Egyptian Oil Shale Market


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The Oil Shale Market 2011-2021believes that the shale beneath the East Bahariya field in the west of the country is geologically similar

to those found in the US, and could contain between 700 million and 2.2 billion barrels of oil. Apache is

planning to drill two unconventional wells in 2011 to explore the oil shale and shale gas opportunities

within Egypt.


Following the 4th Workshop on Regional Cooperation for the Clean Utilisation of Oil Shale, which was

held at Sharm El-Sheikh in February 2010, Egypt signed an agreement with Morocco, Jordan, Turkey

and Syria to establish an Oil Shale Cooperation Centre. The centre, which is headquartered in Jordan,

is helping Egypt to more fully assess and then develop its oil shale resources by sharing information,

promoting technical support and encouraging international investment.

Oil Shale Market 2011-2021

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