Oil Peak – A Geologist’s View Francis Harper, BP plc Energy Institute, November 2004.
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Transcript of Oil Peak – A Geologist’s View Francis Harper, BP plc Energy Institute, November 2004.
Oil Peak – A Geologist’s ViewFrancis Harper, BP plc
Energy Institute, November 2004
How long will current reserves last?
1000 bn bbl
25 bn bblp.a.
Reserve Adds:
• Exploration• Reserves Growth• Nonconventionals
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
10 20 30 40 50 60
Years
Pro
du
cti
on
(b
n b
bl)
10% Decline
5% Decline
3% Decline
1.5% Up, 5% down
31 years21 years
10 years
15 years
A 40 year supply?
Exploration
Exploration Potential – Discovery Trend
Data based on those of IHS Energy
• Decreasing trend in volumes found from the early 60’s (peak) to the early ’90’s.• Slight increasing trend over the last decade.• Production exceeds discoveries for last ca. 20 years• Are these numbers consistent?
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000
Dis
co
ve
red
Vo
lum
es
(b
nb
bl)
Kashagan
Deepwater
Other
• Reversal in discovery decline largely due to the deepwater exploration theme – will this continue?• Is Kashagan unique or are there other supergiants?• Are the peak years of ’99 and ’00 anomalous?
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000
Dis
co
ve
red
Vo
lum
es
(b
nb
bl)
Kashagan
Deepwater
Other
• Reversal in discovery decline largely due to the deepwater exploration theme – will this continue?• Is Kashagan unique or are there other supergiants?• Are the peak years of ’99 and ’00 anomalous?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Dis
co
ve
red
Vo
lum
es
(b
nb
bl)
Discovered
Produced
Failure
Uneconomic Success
Economic Success
Exploration
Deepwater Basins – Success and Failure
Lwr. Congo
Niger Delta
Campos
GoM
Ca. 1500 Exploration wellsCa. 120 basins testedCa. 30 with discoveriesCa. 20 w. economic disc.
Deepwater = >500mData based on those of IHS Energy
0
5
10
15
20
0 10 20 30 40Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Campos
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Congo
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Niger
0
5
10
15
20
0 50 100 150Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
GoM
0
5
10
15
20
0 10 20 30 40Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Campos
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Congo
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
Niger
0
5
10
15
20
0 50 100 150Discovery sequence
Dis
co
ve
red
OE
(b
nb
oe
)
GoM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ori
gin
al R
eser
ves
(mm
bo
e)
Ghawar
Qatar North,S.Pars
ShtokmanKashagan
Exploration
Oil and Gas Fields >= 10 bn bbl oil equiv.
• Ca. 50 Fields with >10 bnboe ultimate Potential• Kashagan is the only new supergiant oil field found in the last 25 years
Volumes overviewed for field growth potential
Data based on those of IHS Energy
Exploration
Oil and Gas Basins >= 10 bn bbl oil equiv.
Volumes overviewed for growth and YTF
Data based on those of IHS Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ori
gin
al R
eser
ves
(mm
bo
e)
N.Sea
Arabian
S.Barents
W.Siberia
• Ca. 50 Basins with >10 bnboe ultimate Potential of which ca.5 discovered pre-1900• No major new oil province found since the North Sea other than as deepwater extensions of known basins
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Av
era
ge
fie
ld s
ize
(m
mb
oe
)
Exploration
Field Sizes and Success Rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ex
plo
rati
on
Su
cc
es
s R
ate
(%
)
Success rates from new-field wildcats has increased from ca 1 in 6 to ca 1 in 3 over the last 50 years
Average discovery sizes have tracked total discovery volumes declining to about 50 mmbbl by 1980.
Data from IHS Energy
Exploration
Exploration Potential Summary
• Discovered volumes have been declining since the end of the ’60s
• The deepwater theme of the ’90s has helped to reverse this trend but this will not last indefinitely
• The number of supergiant oil fields and the number of giant oil provinces have fallen off markedly in recent years
• Maximum and average field sizes are declining
BUT
• Drilling success rates are rising, driven by advances in the technology of imaging
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
An
nu
al
Dis
co
ve
ies
(bn
bb
l)2003 Est.1997 Est.
Reserves growth
Discovery estimates grow with time
• Ca. 200 billion bbl added to discovery estimates (’50-’96) between ’97 and ‘03• Growth applies primarily to the bigger, older fields
Data from IHS Energy annual reports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Dis
co
ve
red
Vo
lum
es
(b
n b
bl)
1993 Rpt
1994 Rpt
1995 Rpt
1996 Rpt
1997 Rpt
1998 Rpt
1999 Rpt
2000 Rpt
2001 Rpt
2002 Rpt
2003 Rpt
Reserves Growth
Growth in IHS Reserves – World
Data from IHS Energy annual reports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993 1996 1999 2002
Gro
wth
to
19
90
Cu
m
Re
se
rve
s
During the 11 years to 2003, the IHS estimate of cumulative discovered volumes to 1990 has increased by an average of 40 billion bbl per year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993 1996 1999 2002
Gro
wth
to
19
90
Cu
m
Re
se
rve
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993 1996 1999 2002
Gro
wth
to
19
90
Cu
m
Re
se
rve
s
During the 11 years to 2003, the IHS estimate of cumulative discovered volumes to 1990 has increased by an average of 40 billion bbl per year
Reserves Growth
Sources of Field Reserves Growth
Extension(Stratigraphic)
Extension(Structural)
Addition(Shallower Pool)
Addition(Deeper Pool)
Addition(Satellite)
Fields grow either by increases in Hydrocarbons-In-Place (extensions, additions) or by increases in Recovery actor (revisions, improved recovery)
Revisions/Improved Recovery
Data from IHS Energy database
• The average global oil recovery factor is about 30-35%• Original Discovered Reserves are about 1950-2200 billion bbl• Original Discovered In-place volumes are about 5500-7000 billion bbl• Every 1% increase in average global recovery factor adds about 55-70 billion bbl reserves, almost equivalent to a UK North Sea
Reserves Growth
Growth by Improved RecoveryPlots below based on ca. 9000 fields worldwide with recovery factors
- containing ca. 1400 bbo with average RF of 30%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0-5 10-15 20-25 30-35 40-45 50-55 60-65 70-75 80-85
Recovery Factor Bands
No
. of
Fie
lds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0-5 10-15 20-25 30-35 40-45 50-55 60-65 70-75 80-85
Recovery Factor Bands
Vo
lum
es in
Fie
lds
(bb
o)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0-5 10-15 20-25 30-35 40-45 50-55 60-65 70-75 80-85
Recovery Factor Bands
No
. of
Fie
lds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0-5 10-15 20-25 30-35 40-45 50-55 60-65 70-75 80-85
Recovery Factor Bands
Vo
lum
es in
Fie
lds
(bb
o)
All fields with >100 mmbbl and >7 years data
Reserves Growth
Reserves Changes in UK Oil Fields
Data from DTI Brown Book reports
Average
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Years since Annex B
Res
erve
s ch
ang
e F
acto
rIndividual field reserves changes may be positive or negative and can easily half or double the size of a field. On average, however, fields tend to grow.
• Reserves estimates are uncertain and will change with time – these can go up or down but on average will be positive.
• Reserves growth is primarily a function of big, old fields.
• Growth occurs both by increasing hydrocarbons in-place and by increasing recovery factor.
• Most of discovered oil remains in the ground – this is potentially an enormous prize with a 1% increase in global recovery adding about 55-70 bn bbls.
BUT
• Increasing recovery is difficult and expensive and most of reserves growth adds may not affect global peak production
Reserves Growth
Reserves Growth Potential Summary
Canada36%
Canada36%
Venezuela19%
Venezuela19%
Others9%
Others9%
MidEast1%
MidEast1%
Africa3%
Africa3%
USA32%USA32%
Nonconventional Oil
Resource Type and Distribution
Data from IEA 2004 (WEO)
7 trillion bbl Oil-in-Place
(Extra)-Heavy Oil
Bitumen
Oil Shale
Nonconventional Oil
Production Potential
• IEA projects nonconventional production growing at ca. 8% p.a. to about 10 mmbpd by 2030• in 2030, 23% of this is expected to be GTLs (+CTL, Biofuel?)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030
Pro
du
cti
on
Po
ten
tia
l (m
mb
pd
)
GTLs (+?)
Non-conv Resource
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Pro
du
cti
on
Po
ten
tia
l (m
mb
pd
)Nonconv
Conventional
Nonconventional production is still only a small fraction of total estimated IEA production (ca. 5% in 2020)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Pro
du
cti
on
Po
ten
tia
l (m
mb
pd
)Nonconv
Conventional
Nonconventional production is still only a small fraction of total estimated IEA production (ca. 5% in 2020)
• Nonconventional Oil sources include– Heavy oil– Bitumen– Oil shale– Fractured source rock– Gas-to-liquids– Biofuels
• Heavy oil and bitumen are the most important in resource terms and are dominated by Venezuela and Canada respectively
• The resource base is very large and it will become an important part of future supply
BUT
• There are large monetary and environmental costs involved and the rate of growth relative to the demand is limited
Nonconventional Oil
Summary of Nonconventional Potential
N.America360 bnbl
N.America360 bnbl
S.America200 bnbl
S.America200 bnbl
FSU330 bnbl
FSU330 bnbl
MidEast810 bnblMidEast810 bnbl
AsiaPacific130 bnbl
AsiaPacific130 bnblAfrica
190 bnblAfrica
190 bnbl
Europe80 bnblEurope80 bnbl
World
2100 bnbl
2
Distribution, Maturity of Conventional Oil
• Most regions of the world are either at or past the mid-point of depletion• MidEast (and FSU and Africa) have produced <50% of their known resource
ProducedReserves
• Existing discovered reserves are unlikely to sustain demand for more than about 15 years
• Exploration cannot be expected to replace production and its contribution may continue to decline
• Reserves Growth is likely to continue as the dominant form of reserve adds but much of it will only slow post-peak production decline
• Nonconventional oil will become increasingly important – there is a very large resource but converting it into reserves has significant financial and environmental costs
• Non-OPEC is likely to reach a resource-constrained production peak from conventional oil in the next 10 years – thereafter production capacity will be concentrated in progressively fewer countries
Summary