OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY … · oil market outlook, main uncertainty factors & price...

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY

FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO 2020

11. Symposium Energieinnovation

23 February 2010

Johannes Benigni Johannes Benigni

JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy GmbH

10. Februar 201010. Februar 2010

Research Research –– Energy Studies Energy Studies –– Consulting Consulting –– TrainingTraining

Disclaimer

All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including t hose depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that coul d cause actual results, performance or events to di ffer materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, am ong other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s exp ectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projectio ns and assumptions. These forward-looking statements a re identified by their use of terms and phrases suc h as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estima te’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘ objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’,‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “pred ict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goal s’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking stat ements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautio nary statements contained or referred to in this se ction.

23 February 2010 Slide 2

expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautio nary statements contained or referred to in this se ction. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presen tation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiar ies undertake any obligation to publicly update or revi se any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materia lly from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward- looking statements contained in this speech/present ation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be hel d liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis co ntained in this presentation.

Preise

110

130

150

170

1.44

1.50

1.56

1.62

WTI Nymex - left scale

Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate - right scale

Nymex WTl & US Dollar Vs Euro [$/bbl, USD]


30

50

70

90

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan -10

1.20

1.26

1.32

1.38

Source: Nymex & ECB

ICE Brent

2006

2005

2004

2003

ICE Brent

Daily Average Of Volumes Traded On ICE

Preise - Volumen


0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000

2010

2009

2008

2007

Sources: ICE

Preise

100

120

140

160Weekly Average of NYMEX WTI Frontline

Prediction based on Managed Money Long Positions

Crude Oil Price and Influence of Managed Money [$/b bl]


0

20

40

60

80

Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 May 07 Aug 07 Nov 07 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10

Data on managed money long positions improves the naïve forecast

considerably

Preise

30

40

50

60 Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of end-January 2010

EUROPE

8-12 million barrels crude

2-4 million barrels crude

70-80 million barrels of middle distillates

5-10 million barrels of middle distillates


0

10

20

FloatingStorage[mbbls]

end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar end-Apr end-May end-June end-July end-Aug end-Sept end-OctSource: JBC Energy estimate based on info from SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, Argus, WSJ, Gibson, Thomson Reuters

USGC

WAF20-24 million barrels crude

Asia/PacificPG3.5 million barrels

Gasoline

Crude

end-Mar '09 30-40end-Apr '09 100-105end-May'09 80-90end-Jun '09 65-70end-Jul '09 55end-Aug '09 40-50end-Sep '09 34-46end-Oct '09 40-45end-Nov '09 34-40end-Dec '09 40-45end-Jan '10 30-38

95-10075-85

85-9590-95

Floating Storage [mbbls]Gas Oil/Jet/Kero

8-1020-2530-3550-5555-6045-5560-70

Preise - Gas

50

55

60

65

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

Average Production 2005-2008

2009 Production

German Border Gas Price - right scale

Title [unit]Russia Natural Gas Production [bcm; $/MMBtu]


30

35

40

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

Source: Federal State Statistics Service Russia, JBC Energy

20

25

30

35

European Price Comparison [$ per MMBtu]

Preise - Gas


0

5

10

15

Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11

NWE Gas Oil 0.1% FOB NWE 1% FOB German Border Nat Gas PriceJBC View 0.1% Gas Oil JBC View LSFO JBC View German Border Price

30

35

40

45

50

Proved Natural Gas Reserves 2008 [trillion cubic me tres]

Angebot – Gas Reserven


0

5

10

15

20

25

Russia Iran Qatar Saudi A. UAE USA Nigeria

Source: Oil & Gas Journal

Trinidad and Tobago

Norway

UAE

Indonesia

Turkmenistan

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Algeria

China

Iran

Qatar

2008-2010

2010-2012

2012-2014

Natural Gas Production Growth in Selected Countries [bcm]

Angebot – Gas


-50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125

UK

United States

Canada

Netherlands

Russia

Mexico

Uzbekistan

Yemen

Malaysia

Iraq

Oman

Egypt

Trinidad and Tobago

Angebot – Öl ReservenOPEC/Non-OPEC Oil Reserves (2009)

OPEC holds 70% of world reserves but produces ‘only’ 40% of global oil production at the moment!! !

Non-OPEC Oil Reserves:~ 407 billion barrels as of January 2009

OPEC Oil Reserves:~ 935 billion barrels as of January 2009

30%

70%

World Proven Oil & Gas Reserves by Type of Company [%]


Source: OGJ 2009

9%

13%

1%

6%

25%

25%

13%5%

3%Super Majors

Other Private Companies

Russian State-Controlled Companies

National Iranian Oil Company

Kuwait Petroleum Company

Saudi Aramco

Pemex (Mexico)

Iraqi Oil Companies

Other NOCs

World Proven Oil & Gas Reserves by Type of Company [%]

Source: IEA WEO 2008

Private companies = 28%

NOCs = 72%

The proportion would be more in favour of NOCs if

only oil was accounted for!

Angebot – Nicht-OPEC -Staaten

N. Zealand

Vietnam

China

Indonesia

Congo

Colombia

Canada

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Brazil

2010

2011

Oil Supply Growth of Selected Non-OPEC Countries [' 000 b/d]


-1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Norway

Mexico

UK

US

Syria

Yemen

Malaysia

Oman

Sudan

Australia

Russia

N. Zealand 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Angebot – Nicht-OPEC -Staaten

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Processing Gains

Other Liquids

NGLs

Crude

Total Supply Growth

Non-OPEC Supply Growth by Source [mbpd]


-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Angebot – OPEC

30

35

40

45

50

45%

50%

55%

60%

OPEC Crude Production - left scale

Share of OPEC in World Crude Output - right scale

OPEC Crude Output (Historic Members) and OPEC Share in World Crude Supply [mbpd;%]

New High (absolute) in 2008: 32 mbpd

High (absolute) in 1977: 31.6 mbpd


5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203025%

30%

35%

40%

45%

OPEC cuts and Indonesia leaving the organisation result in lower output in 2009

Angebot – Szenarien

9.0

10.5

12.0

13.5

15.0Rumaila West Qurna

Zubair West Qurna Phase 2

Majnoon Halfaya

Gharaf Badrah

Qayara Najmah

Other Fields JBC Energy - 2009 Base Case

JBC Energy - Optimistic Scenario

Iraqi Crude Production Capacity - Various Scenarios [mbpd]


0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: JBC Energy, Iraqi Oil Ministry


4.0

4.8

5.6

6.4

Iranian Crude Output - Base Case Scenario

Iranian Crude Output - Worst Case Scenario

Iranian Crude Output - Smooth Regime Change Scenari o

Iranian Crude Production [mbpd]


0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Production levels would be close to lows during the early 1980s and close to current crude intake into refineries

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia VenezuelaQatar Libya Indonesia UAE Algeria Nigeria Ecuador Gabon

Change in OPEC Oil Output by Historic Member Countries (Basis 1979) ['000 b/d]



-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Source: OPEC, BP, JBC Energy


8

10

12

14

Spare Capacity - 2009 Base Case

Optimistic Scenario - Iraq

Best Case Scenario - Iraq

Worst Case Scenario - Iran

OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd]


0

2

4

6

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Avg. spare capacity 1960-2007


5

6

7

8

9

Additional Global Demand Increase

Additional Non-OPEC Supply Decline

New Spare Capacity - Optimistic Scenario Iraq

OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd]


0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Nachfrage

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

World Oil Demand Growth vs. GDP Growth 2000-2015 (Y-o-Y ) [mbpd, %]


-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

World Oil Demand Growth

OECD Oil Demand Growth

Non-OECD Oil Demand Growth

World GDP Growth - right scale

Source: JBC Energy, Global Insight

Nachfrage

500

600

700

800

900

Passenger Car Ownership and per Capita GDP 1994-2008P

asse

nger

car

s pe

r 10

00 p

eopl

e


0

100

200

300

400

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

ChinaIndiaUnited StatesGermanyJapanSouth Korea

per capita GDP (based on purchasing power parity, ' 000 USD)

Pas

seng

er c

ars

per

1000

peo

ple

Source: UN, IMF

Nachfrage

24

32

40

7

8

9China Oil DemandChina Oil Demand at double per capita growthIndia Oil Demand - right scaleIndia Oil Demand at double per capita growth - righ t scale

China & India Demand Scenarios Based On Per Capita C onsumption [mbpd]

China: +15 mbpdIndia: +2.6 mbpd

2010 2030China D/C 2.3 4.3

Average growth in C hinese D/CChina D/C doub le growth speed 2.5 8.2

India D/C 1.0 1.4Average growth in Indian D/C

India D/C double growth s peed 1.1 2.1J apanes e D/C 11.8 8.9

3.2%

1.7%

Per Capita Oil Demand [bbl/year/capita]


0

8

16

2009 2015 2020 2025 20303

4

5

6

J apanes e D/C 11.8 8.9US D/C 21.8 15.1

Preisausblick

100

120

140

160

Oil Price Forecast [$/bbl]


0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Thank You!


Consulting – Research - Training

www.jbcenergy.com

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY … · oil market outlook, main uncertainty factors & price...

Documents

Transcript of OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY … · oil market outlook, main uncertainty factors & price...