OIL - info.publicintelligence.netinfo.publicintelligence.net/cpa_map.pdf · KUWAIT ENERGY CORRIDOR...
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ERITREA SUDAN MOLDOVA PAKISTAN NIGERIA YEMEN INDONESIA MALAYSIA (PETRONAS) S. AFRICA SWEDEN/ SWITZ. UAE SAUDI ARABIA FRANCE INDIA (ONGC VIDESH) CHINA (CNPC) (SINOPEC) KUWAIT ENERGY CORRIDOR (PERSIAN GULF OIL) - 3.3 Million Barrels per day - 4% of Global Daily Consumption Basin Population Basin Population • Ten Riparian States – Egypt – Sudan – Ethiopia – Uganda – Rwanda – Tanzania – Kenya – D.R. Congo – Eritrea – Burundi Egypt 22% Burundi 2% Eritea 1% Congo 16% Ethiopia 20% Uganda 7% Rwanda 2% Tanzania 10% Kenya 9% Sudan 11% CHAD CAR ETHIOPIA DROC UGANDA KENYA LIBYA UKRAINE Economic Dysfunction Resources Poor Governance M/V FAINA - Ukranian Owned - Belize Flagged - Destined for Mobassa, Kenya Port SIRIUS STAR - Liberian Flagged - Saudi ARAMCO - 2M Barrels / $100M - 2.3% of Global Daily Consumption NILE (WHITE) (BLUE) EGYPT - 55.5bcm/yr SUDAN - 18.5bcm/yr IRRIGATION EGYPT - 48bcm/yr SUDAN - 46bcm/yr 84bcm/yr 85% BLUE 14% WHITE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION - Egypt’s “Historic Rights” - Recognized no other U.S OIL COMPANIES C T C O O P E R A T I O N / “ O U R T OP P R I OR I T Y I S S UDAN” President Obama V.P. Biden UN - Dr. Susan Rice Secretary of State Clinton John Prendergast Samantha Powers CPA MILESTONES (Temporary Arrangement) - Detailed Provisions For Oil Management (Poorly Implimented) - National Census (Power Sharing Based on Census Results) - National/Regional Elections (NLT July ‘09) - Referendum on Self-Determination (2011) - Abyei Special Administrative Status - “Popular Consultation” (Blue Nile and South Kordofan) SECURITY POWER SHARING WEALTH SHARING l i o s ’ n a d u S f o % 0 8 - 5 6 / r o t s e v n i t s e g r a l s ’ n a d u S - C P N C / l i O s ’ a n i h C f o % 7 T h re a t e n e d W a r i n 1 9 7 0 RUSSIA BELARUS OIL L I O REFUGEES/IDPs WEAPONS REFUGEES CPA ISLAMIZATION CONFLICT/TENSION WATER OIL PIRACY OIL FIELD GoS (NCP) GoSS (SPLM/A) GONU UNAMID UNMIS ICC 20 0 8 10 I N D IC TME NT S F O R W A R C R I MES / C R I M E S AG AI N ST H U MA N I T Y / G ENO C I D E China’s 4th largest foreign oil source SUDAN - Africa’s largest country - 39.3M population - 57 ethnic groups - 70% Muslim - 20-25% Traditional - 10% Christian - ~ 400 languages - Owes its existence as 1 unit to colonialism ? Independent in 1956 ? Arab tribes in North well prepared ? African tribes in south not well prepared ? Involuntary N-S merging - 1st Civil War 1956 - 1972 (16), ended when South given autonomy and own government - Oil discovered 1979 (production 1999) - 2nd Civil War 1983 - 2005 (22) ? 2M dead ? 4M IDPs - CPA (Jan 2005) - Darfur 2003 - Present (5+) - Independant for 52 years (conflict for 43+) - 92.6% export revenue from oil (feeds North’s growth) U . S . O I L I N T E R E S T S E I T HI O PI AN IS L AM IC J IH A D E R I T R E AN I S LA M I C J I H A D CAMEROON – Lack of Development - Forced Islam and Shari’a - Arabization of Education - Confiscation of Customary Lands - Lack of Representation in Government - Lack of Resource Compensation - Discrimination STATE DEPARTMENT POLICY (SOUTHERN SUDAN) - Should be main effort for AFRICOM - Efforts should support a united Sudan - Transform SPLA to deter Northern agression - Accelerate reconstruction and development - Goods and services to the SPLA (PD-22) - Top Three: Capabilities, Weapons Systems, Personnel B I L A T A G R E E M E N T T N O R F N R E T S A E R O F T R O P P U S T N E M E E R G A T A L I B A P C C P A C P A A P C REFUGEES/IDPs 2 16 4 16 6 10 26 40 44 # 2008 FSI RANKING H E R I T A G E – L U O T R I B E SE N A T E R E S O LU T ION 5 5 9 – N AT O N O FL Y L U O M I G R A T IO N FSI INDICATORS OF INSTABILITY - Demographic pressures - Refugees and displaced persons - Group grievance - Human flight - Uneven development - Economy - Delegitimization of State - Public services - Human rights - Security apparatus - Factionalized elites - External intervention AN T D P N O E LI P T E I C D A F L O C N O N O I S T T A I E T R U C E - N C S I E E C S R / U O S E R / R E T N E C F O E C N A N I M O D C I M O N O C E D I V I D E A N D R U L E T O C O N T R O L P E R I P H E R Y M O A N D G I C N I P K A A S E T P O S R C A I L B I A S T R S A C A N I R F F A A R M K C E A R L S B Centralized Arabic Islamist Regime (NIF) “GATEKEEPER STATE” IRAN N O I T A R E P O O C D E S A E R C N I 1 SOMALIA V IS A I S SU E S
Transcript of OIL - info.publicintelligence.netinfo.publicintelligence.net/cpa_map.pdf · KUWAIT ENERGY CORRIDOR...
ERITREA
SUDAN
MOLDOVA
PAKISTAN
NIGERIA
YEMEN
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA(PETRONAS)
S. AFRICA
SWEDEN/SWITZ.
UAE
SAUDI ARABIA
FRANCE
INDIA(ONGC
VIDESH)
CHINA (CNPC)
(SINOPEC)
KUWAIT
ENERGY CORRIDOR(PERSIAN GULF OIL)
- 3.3 Million Barrels per day- 4% of Global Daily Consumption
Basin PopulationBasin Population
• Ten Riparian States– Egypt
– Sudan
– Ethiopia
– Uganda
– Rwanda
– Tanzania
– Kenya
– D.R. Congo
– Eritrea
– Burundi
Egypt22%
Burundi2%
Eritea1%
Congo16%
Ethiopia20%Uganda
7%
Rwanda2%
Tanzania10%
Kenya
9%
Sudan11%
CHAD
CAR
ETHIOPIA
DROC
UGANDA
KENYA
LIBYA
UKRAINE
EconomicDysfunction
ResourcesPoorGovernance
M/V FAINA
- Ukranian Owned- Belize Flagged- Destined for Mobassa, Kenya Port
SIRIUS STAR
- Liberian Flagged- Saudi ARAMCO- 2M Barrels / $100M- 2.3% of Global Daily Consumption
NILE(WHITE)(BLUE)
EGYPT - 55.5bcm/yrSUDAN - 18.5bcm/yr
IRRIGATION
EGYPT - 48bcm/yrSUDAN - 46bcm/yr
84bcm/yr 85% BLUE
14% WHITE
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION
- Egypt’s “Historic Rights”- Recognized no other
U.S OILCOMPANIES
C T COOPERATION / “OUR TO
P PRIORITY IS SU
DAN”
President Obama
V.P. Biden
UN - Dr. Susan Rice
Secretary of State Clinton
John Prendergast
Samantha Powers
CPA MILESTONES (Temporary Arrangement)
- Detailed Provisions For Oil Management (Poorly Implimented)- National Census (Power Sharing Based on Census Results)- National/Regional Elections (NLT July ‘09)- Referendum on Self-Determination (2011)
- Abyei Special Administrative Status- “Popular Consultation” (Blue Nile and South Kordofan)
SECURITYPOWER
SHARINGWEALTHSHARING
lio s’naduS fo
%08-56 / rotsevni tsegral s’naduS -
CP
NC / li
O s’anihC fo
%7
Threate
ned W
ar in
1970 RUSSIA
BELARUS
OI L
LIO
REFUGEES/IDPs
WEAPONS
REFUGEES
CPA
ISLAMIZATION
CONFLICT/TENSION
WATER
OIL
PIRACY
OIL FIELD
GoS (NCP)
GoSS (SPLM/A)
GONU
UNAMID
UNMIS
ICC
2008 10 INDICTMENTS FOR WAR CRIMES / CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY / GENOCIDE
Chi
na’s
4th
larg
est f
orei
gn o
il so
urce
SUDAN
- Africa’s largest country- 39.3M population- 57 ethnic groups- 70% Muslim- 20-25% Traditional- 10% Christian- ~ 400 languages- Owes its existence as 1 unit to colonialism
?Independent in 1956?Arab tribes in North well prepared?African tribes in south not well prepared?Involuntary N-S merging
- 1st Civil War 1956 - 1972 (16), ended when South given autonomy and own government
- Oil discovered 1979 (production 1999)- 2nd Civil War 1983 - 2005 (22)
?2M dead?4M IDPs
- CPA (Jan 2005)- Darfur 2003 - Present (5+)- Independant for 52 years (conflict for 43+)- 92.6% export revenue from oil (feeds North’s growth)
U.S
. OIL
INT
ER
ES
TS
EITH
IOPIA
N IS
LAM
IC JIH
AD
ER I TREAN ISLAMIC JIHAD
CAMEROON
– Lack of Development- Forced Islam and Shari’a- Arabization of Education- Confiscation of Customary Lands- Lack of Representation in Government- Lack of Resource Compensation- Discrimination
STATE DEPARTMENT POLICY(SOUTHERN SUDAN)
- Should be main effort for AFRICOM- Efforts should support a united Sudan - Transform SPLA to deter Northern agression- Accelerate reconstruction and development- Goods and services to the SPLA (PD-22)- Top Three: Capabilities, Weapons Systems, Personnel
BIL
AT
AG
RE
EM
EN
T
TN
ORF
NRETSAE ROF TROPPUS
TN
EM
EE
RG
A T
ALI
B
APC
CP
A
CPA
AP
C
REFUGEES/IDPs
2
16
4
166
10
26
40
44
# 2008 FSI RANKING
HE
RIT
AG
E –
LU
O T
RIB
E
SENATE RESOLUTION 559 – NATO NO FLY
LUO M
IG
RATIO
N
FSI INDICATORS OF INSTABILITY
- Demographic pressures- Refugees and displaced persons- Group grievance- Human flight- Uneven development- Economy- Delegitimization of State- Public services- Human rights- Security apparatus- Factionalized elites- External intervention
ANT D PN OE LIP TE ICD AF LO CN ONOI ST TA IE TR U
C E - N CS
IE E
C S
R / UO
SE
R / R
ET
NE
C F
O E
CNANI
MOD CI MONOCE
DIV
IDE
AN
D R
ULE
TO
CO
N
TROL PERIPHERY
MO AN DG ICNI PK AA SE TP OS RC AI LB IA STR
SA
CANI R FF AA R MKC EA RL SB
Centralized Arabic Islamist Regime (NIF)
“GATEKEEPER STATE”
IRAN
NOI
TA
RE
PO
OC
DE
SA
ER
CNI
1
SO
MA
LIA
VISA ISSUES
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