Ohan Balian 2016 Investment Opportunities for Abu Dhabi Companies in International Markets. Sectoral...

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InvestmentOpportunities

For Abu Dhabi Companiesin International Markets

In association with

www.ihs.com

www.abudhabichamber.ae

Sectoral Report January 2016

Issue 02-08122015


2/24

For Abu Dhabi Companies in International Markets

2

Cover image: IHS www.abudhabichamber.ae www.linkedin.com/company/abu-dhabi-chamber

COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMERCopyright © by Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, scanning, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods,

without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law.

For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed to:

Key Sector Permissions Coordinator

Main Building of Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry,

Corniche Rd., P.O.Box

Tel +

Fax +

E-mail: [email protected]

: AM - : PM (Sun - Thu)

Printed in the United Arab Emirates

Dear reader These are turbulent times for industries. Companyexecutives started planning for 2015 more than a year ago,when oil prices were close to USD100 per barrel and theUS dollar was hovering around USD1.30 per euro. Chinesedemand was still broadly untainted, although concernsabout a hard landing were clearly abundant.

Four months later, on New Year’s Eve, it was apparent theassumptions, on which 2015 operating plans rested, were

off target and had to be corrected. Plans were scrapped.This rst issue of the Sectoral Report will offer our

understanding of the changes taking place. Changes alsoneed to be put into context with the underlying currentsof the global recovery. The report will help to identify thechallenges that have emerged in many sectors and, at thesame time, identify newly emerging growth opportunities.

The Sectoral Report provides a “deeper dive” into the

sectors critical for Abu Dhabi’s diversication strategy and

long-term development. These sectors include energy (oiland gas); petrochemicals; metals; aviation; aerospace;defense; pharmaceuticals; biotechnology and life sciences;healthcare equipment and services; transportation, trade,

and logistics; media; nancial services; telecommunicationservices; microchip industry; and education.

Not all of these sectors will be covered in detail within theSectoral Report. In accordance with the mission of the Abu

Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and similar to theBiannual Abu Dhabi Report (BADER), private-sector business

will be the focus. Forthcoming reports will focus on globaland regional industry currents, but also on questions that areimportant for nurturing sector development in Abu Dhabi.

The report does not have a xed schedule as such; we

strive to publish one issue per month. The Sectoral Report

will complement the BADER, which concentrates on the

broader macroeconomic picture, and will support the

industry focus of Abu Dhabi’s long-term strategy.

ContentsGlobal industry recovery is still weak andfraught with risks 3

The housing nightmare 4

The unraveling of the supercycle 6

Near-term outlook builds some condence 6

High and low performers in the age of low oil 6

Distilling the impact of low oil 7

Impact on oil output 8

A deeper dive on global construction 8

Low-priced oil cuts operating costs forchemical producers… 9

…but leaves some producers struggling with

a weaker competitive edge 9

Transport benets from lower operating costsand higher demand 10

Energy savings are lifting end-consumer demand 10

Investment location driven by currency movements 11

The bigger picture and Asia’s race up thevalue-added ladder 11

Sectoral Report


3/24© 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry 3

As companies scramble to adjustoperating plans, investments are beingshelved widely, and new opportunities areemerging. The energy sector is primarilyaffected but is not alone. Industriesadjacent to the energy sector and, in fact,entire supply chains factor into the new

reality and reshape the sectoral landscapeand the economy. The process started lessthan a year ago and is currently well underway. (see table 1)

The adjustment process must be putin context with the underlying currents ofglobal and regional growth patterns. Manyforces are at work. The damage inicted by

the Great Recession still impairs the global

economy and nancial system even while

they attempt to regain full health. Policyresponses, including scal austerity and

monetary expansion, are relevant.

Global industry recovery is stillweak and fraught with risksThe problem is most severe in the caseof advanced economies’ real estate,construction, banking, and householdsectors. In some countries, these sectorswill need several more years to regain theirprecrisis vitality. Some goods-producingsectors will also need years to regain fullhealth. (see table 2)

Low oil, strong dollar, andglobal industries

Table 1: World industry annual output growth

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

2 0 0 5 - Q 1

2 0 0 5 - Q 2

2 0 0 5 - Q 3

2 0 0 5 - Q 4

2 0 0 6 - Q 1

2 0 0 6 - Q 2

2 0 0 6 - Q 3

2 0 0 6 - Q 4

2 0 0 7 - Q 1

2 0 0 7 - Q 2

2 0 0 7 - Q 3

2 0 0 7 - Q 4

2 0 0 8 - Q 1

2 0 0 8 - Q 2

2 0 0 8 - Q 3

2 0 0 8 - Q 4

2 0 0 9 - Q 1

2 0 0 9 - Q 2

2 0 0 9 - Q 3

2 0 0 9 - Q 4

2 0 1 0 - Q 1

2 0 1 0 - Q 2

2 0 1 0 - Q 3

2 0 1 0 - Q 4

2 0 1 1 - Q 1

2 0 1 1 - Q 2

2 0 1 1 - Q 3

2 0 1 1 - Q 4

2 0 1 2 - Q 1

2 0 1 2 - Q 2

2 0 1 2 - Q 3

2 0 1 2 - Q 4

2 0 1 3 - Q 1

2 0 1 3 - Q 2

2 0 1 3 - Q 3

2 0 1 3 - Q 4

2 0 1 4 - Q 1

2 0 1 4 - Q 2

2 0 1 4 - Q 3

2 0 1 4 - Q 4

2 0 1 5 - Q 1

2 0 1 5 - Q 2

Source: IHS © 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Table 2: Industry output CAGR**Compound annual growth rate, world economy

Source: IHS World Industry Service© 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

1995-2007 Sector

Manufacturing

Iron & Steel

Electronics (Computers& Communications)

Medical & MeasuringEquipment

Pharma(Drugs & Medicines)

Media and Entertainment

Construction

Transportation,Logistics & Wholesale

Medical & Healthcare

Information &Communications Technology

Refined PetroleumProducts

Chemicals (excl. Pharma)

3.7%

4.3%8.9%

4.8%

5.4%

2.4%

2.3%

3.4%

3.5%

9.1%

2.0%

3.7%

2.5%

2.7%4.2%

3.3%

3.5%

1.7%

2.5%

2.6%

3.5%

4.3%

1.6%

3.2%

2011-2015

2014$93

2015

$49


4/24



performance spectrum, reecting improved

household purchasing power, chiey in oil-

importing countries.In any case, because house prices in

many countries were vastly overpriced,there is a signicant risk that prices could

undergo another correction over thecoming years, particularly if the worldeconomy does not reaccelerate or centralbanks tighten their monetary policy rapidly. A protracted, synchronous housing crashcould further weaken the global economy

Table 5: IHS World Material Price Index (exchange-traded commodities, January 2002 = 100

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: IHS © 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Table 6: Growth opportunity and sector size: World sectors compared

Relative sector sales level in 2014

Large More than USD $2,320 bn

MediumUSD $875 to $2,320 bn

Fair USD $412 to $875 bn

SmallLess than USD $412 bn

High More than3.5%

Textiles & apparel;Communications; Banking& related nancial; Businessservices

Basic industrial chemicals;Pharma: drugs & medicines;Mineral-based prod. (ex.glass); Nonferrous metals;Wire, cables & batteries;Semiconductors, CBs, &LCDs; Parts for motorvehicles; Computing &related services

Synthetic bers; Glass &glass products; Electricmotors & generators;Electric distribution &control; Receivers, players,sound systems; Optical &photographic equipment;Railroads & equipment;Motorcycles, bicycles,transport. equip.; Recycling

Synthetic resins;Transmitters, routers,telephony; Medical &measuring equipment; Aircraft & spacecraft;Jewelry, toys, musical,sporting; Air transport

Medium 2.6% to 3.5%

Agriculture; Food products;Motor vehicles;Construction; Wholesaletrade; Hotels & restaurants;Land transport; Education;Health and social services

Mining of metals & stone;Specialty chemicals (ex.pharma); Plastic products;Other general industrymachinery; Supportingtransport services; Leasingof machinery & equipment;Recreational, cultural, &sporting

Watches & clocks; Pipelinetransport

Beverages; Wood products(ex. furniture); Rubberproducts; Structural metalproducts; Domesticappliances; Furniture;Water transport; Research& development

Low Less than2.6%

Oil & gas mining; Renedpetroleum & related; Iron &steel; Electricity, gas, &steam; Retail trade - total;Public Admin. & Defense

Paper & pulp; Metal coating& related services;Sanitation, tradeorganizations

Uranium mining; Tobaccoproducts; Printing & relatedservices; Reproduction ofrecorded media; Fertilizers;Engines & turbines; Lifting& handling equipment; Agricultural machinery;Machine tools; Metallurgy,

machinery, & casting;Mining & constructionmachinery; Shipbuilding;Water supply

Coal mining; Publishing;Other special industrialmachinery; Computers &ofce machinery; Post &courier services

Source: IHS World Industry Service © 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

G r o w t h ( C A G R , r e a l ) i n

2 0 1 4 – 1 7

World total in 2014:

USD $114 trillionSector size: USD $7-$10,159 bnGrowth rates: -1.1%-5.7% (nominal)


6/24January 20166

and unleash powerful, self-feedingdeationary pressure for several years.

Given the weakness of banking systems inmany countries around the world, a housingcrash could trigger a renewed nancial crisis

and further damage the world economy.

The unraveling of the supercycle Against this backdrop of global economic

currents, the unraveling of the “commodit

superccle” combined with China’s

weakness and a stronger US dollar has

added new dimensions to the global

economic and industrial (dis-)order. During

the last 20-odd years, the surge of demand

from emerging marets, rst of all fromChina, had driven prices for all key industry

commodities to new heights, but that surge

crashed as growth in many emerging

marets slacened and inated production

capacity mattered suddenly. (see table 5)

The bottom is nigh?The downturn might not have reached itsnadir quite yet. Industrial commodity pricescontinue to slide. The IHS Materials PriceIndex (MPI) is now 37.5% below its year-earlier level and 54.5% below the high

reached at the end of 2013. In real terms,the MPI now matches the level reached inthe rst quarter of 2009, during the Great

Recession. In many cases, prices are now

below IHS estimates of average global cashoperating costs.

Current price levels are pressuringcommodity producers. Real prices are close

to where they were in late 2008, a signthat commodity prices may be nearing abottom. Although the trough could be near,a recovery of prices in the near term is by nomeans guaranteed.

Near-term outlook builds somecondence Against that background, and with results forrst-half 2015 taken into account, the new

reality of low oil can be reected in industry

forecasts with some condence. The sector

overview for 2014–17 displays industries

according to size (horizontal line) andgrowth performance (vertical line).(see tabel 6)

High-growth sectors on the global scaleare primarily sectors that are relatively fardown the supply chain and close to theend consumer, such as textiles, media,electric and electronic products, but alsoservices industries like communicationsand banking. Furthermore, sectors thatenjoy direct benets from lower oil prices,

such as basic chemicals, are ranked ashigh performers, too.

High and low performers in the ageof low oilLow performers are found among miningindustries, reecting the weakness of

mining commodity prices. Suppliers for

37.5%is the percentage

point by which the IHSMaterials Price Index

(MPI) is below itsyear-earlier level

Table 7: Growth opportunity and sector size by country: private non-agricultural business

Relative sector sales level in 2014

Large More than USD $1,320 bn

MediumUSD $512 to $1,320 bn

Fair USD $273 to $512 bn

SmallLess than USD $273 bn

High More than3.6%

China; India; Indonesia Poland; Malaysia; Nigeria Slovak Republic;Bangladesh; Sri Lanka;Jordan; Qatar; Panama;Uruguay; Cameroon;Kenya; Morocco;Zimbabwe

Czech Republic; Ireland;Romania; Philippines;Pakistan; Vietnam; Egypt

Medium 2.4% to 3.6%

Mexico; United States;Spain; United Kingdom;South Korea

Sweden; Turkey;Singapore; Thailand;Taiwan; Emirates (UAE);Israel

Hungary; Bulgaria;Bahrain; Bolivia; CostaRica; Ecuador; Honduras

Hong Kong; NewZealand; Iran; Kuwait;Peru

Low Less than2.4%

Canada; France; Germany;Italy; Netherlands;Switzerland; Russia; Australia; Japan; Brazil

Austria; Belgium;Denmark; Norway; Saudi Arabia; Argent ina;Colombia

Ukraine; Jamaica Finland; Greece;Portugal; Chile;Venezuela


G r o w t h ( C A G R , r e a l ) i n 2 0 1 4 – 1 7

World total in 2014:

USD $132 trillionSector size: USD $22-$28,126 bn

Growth rates: -5.3%-8.1% (nominal)


Sectoral Report



mining sectors, including machinery andequipment makers, are affected by thatweakness. Moreover, industries that are

confronted with structural challenges likeglobal excess capacities in steel are barelygrowing in the near term as demand growthwill not be able to catch up with actualproduction capacity.

China, particularly, has this problem,

where excess capacities are visible

in segments supplying construction

works. As the investment boom in China

slacens, high-ing expectations for

construction demand are no longer

realistic. Still, China remains among the

high performers in the country ranking.

(see table 7)Overall economic growth has clearly

been slowing down as the investment bias

of China’s growth model is toned down in

favor of more emphasis on consumption.

In fact, resilient consumer spending,

irrespective of recent volatility in local

nancial marets, will offset much of the

slack from investment and construction.

Distilling the impact of low oilHow strong has been the impact of low oil inthis environment? Oil prices moved quickly,

yet industries have taken more time to adjust.Commodity markets are apparently resettingto lower expectations. These revisedexpectations are evident in investment ows

of exchange-traded funds and hedge funds,which have been retreating from commoditiesas an asset class.

To quantify the impact of persistently

low oil prices, IHS developed an industry

scenario that assumes a further decline

of oil prices. A difference of USD30 per

barrel to the IHS baseline forecast on

average for 2017 is the core assumption

behind the scenario.

Oil prices at USD30 less per barrelBroadly speaking, the industries thatfare best under these circumstances arethose driven by consumer spending. Thesectors that produce capital equipment fornonenergy-related industries also performrelatively well in such a scenario. Global

Table 8: World ranking low oil price vs. baseline, 2017

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Social & personal services

Hotels and restaurants

Mining

Real estate & business services

Wholesale and retail trade

Manufacturing

UtilitiesFinancial intermediation

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

Transport, storage, communication

Education

Private household services

Healthcare services

Agriculture

Construction

Public administration & defense

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O

496Output change basis points -756Capex change basis points


Table 9: Top and bottom performers low oil price vs. baseline


Top three sectors

Utilities

Social & personal services

Manufacturing

Bottom three sectors

Agriculture


Mining

1: North America**includes Mexico

58

55

48

27

12

-169

Top three sectors

Hotels and restaurants


Financial intermediation


Healthcare services


Mining

66

55

53

20

13

-90

2: Western Europe

Top three sectors

Mining

Agriculture





Construction

406

-87

-127

-286

-374

-386

3: Middle East

Top three sectors



Education


Mining

Healthcare services

Agriculture

57

49

46

34

32

28

4: Asia Pacific

*Incremental output change 2017 (percent basis points)

$30is the USD cost

difference per barrelof oil by 2017


8/24January 20168

mining, including oil, is still increasingoutput as producers scramble to retainmarket share, but at the same time, capital

expenditure (capex) is curtailed. Capacityreduction as a result of weaker capex willkick in only toward the end of the decade.(see table 8)

The regions of the world most inuenced

by changes in energy prices are thosewhere production of oil and gas are a muchlarger share of the local economy andgovernment revenues. With low oil prices,members of OPEC located in the MiddleEast, Africa, and Latin America suffer from adecline in revenues and government funds.The results are contracting government

spending and falling business investments.(see table 9)

Impact on oil outputIn the short term, a few of the larger andlower-cost producers of energy will be able toincrease their output of oil and gas volumes,to partially make up for decline in price.Nevertheless, the impact on oil revenuesfrom changing oil prices will outweigh thesmaller movement in output volumes.

Over the medium- and longer-term timeperiods, even the low-cost producers of oil

and gas will adjust production downward asenergy prices remain below expectations.Many energy-producing countries alsohave large sectors in agriculture andchemicals, both of which benet from lower

prices of fuel and feedstock.

A deeper dive on global constructionLow oil prices provide both an opportunityand a drag for the construction industry.

For net oil-importing countries, reducedspending on fuels transfers to morespending power for consumers andincreased prots for corporation. The result

is intensied nonresidential construction

activity and increased spending on homeconstruction and improvements.

However, there is also constructionactivity within oil exploration, production,and distribution, which exerts a drag on theconstruction industry when oil prices are low.In some producing countries, oil revenuesare used to subsidize construction of

housing, and dependence of the economy onenergy can be such that reduced oil priceshold back overall economic activity, limitingnonresidential construction. (see table 10)

Net benet from low oilOil-consuming nations have a larger share ofglobal economic activity than oil producers,so the net impact on the constructionindustry is slightly positive. The constructionindustry of the United States is linked tohousing and commercial construction farmore than to energy. Global construction

spending grows faster in a low oil price worldcompared with the baseline. Exchange-ratevariations appear to have hardly any impacton construction sector performance. Thereis very little trade in construction services;virtually all of the supply is domestic.

Table 10: Construction, glass, & cement output change; regional performance low oil pricevs. baseline 2017 (percent basis points)


-400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50

World total22

Asia-Pacific47

Western Europe47

North America, incl. Mexico30

Eastern Europe & CIS26

-20 Africa

-49Latin & Central America, excl. Mexico

-372Middle East

173

-709

Total output

70%+ of chemical productioncosts are derived fromfeedstock and energy


Sectoral Report



Table 11: Chemicals output change 2017; regional performance low oil price vs. baseline 20(percent basis points)


-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

World total38


Asia-Pacific43

Western Europe41


Africa13

Latin & Central America, excl. Mexico13

-106Middle East

219

-106

Total output

The boost given to consumers will improvehousing activity, as well as commercialstructures where consumers spend, such

as retail, hotels, and restaurants. The netpositive impact of low energy prices on theUS economy will create more jobs, whichalso results in construction investment.

The Asia-Pacic region in general, and

China in particular, will see constructionsectors benet from low oil prices. In China’s

case, it will help to mitigate but surely notoffset the slowdown of the investment boom.Europe also benets from a low oil scenario,

but the existing slack in the region’s realestate market translates into less of anadvantage compared with the United States.

Low-priced oil cuts operating costsfor chemical producers…Low-priced oil has caused a dramaticswing in the marginal cost and competitivepositioning for many chemical producersacross the globe. Feedstock and energyequate to about 70–80% of chemicalproduction costs. In a low oil priceenvironment, chemical output will rise, in linewith overall gains to economic growth.

Low oil prices lead to a deationary impact

on chemicals prices in the short term,

though. Since most producers lack pricingpower, consumers will take full advantageof declining prices and abundant supply.The effect of lower prices will likely offsethigher output and, therefore, lead to weakernominal sales and capital investment overall,

particularly in the short term.Chemical producers are price takers,

ercely ghting over market share, while

value-added specialty manufacturerscompeting on innovation should be relativelyinsulated irrespective of high or low oilprices. (see table 11)

Given the presence of chemicals in ourdaily lives, demand growth generally movesin step with the broader economy. As such,IHS expects chemical consumption tooutperform in oil-importing countries andunderperform in oil-exporting countrieswhen oil prices are low and vice versa whenoil prices become more expensive.

…but leaves some producersstruggling with a weakercompetitive edge A attening global cost curve in a low oil price

environment is positive news for Europeanand East Asian naphtha crackers strugglingagainst the onslaught of new supplyoriginating in the United States, Middle East,and Chinese western provinces.

When crude prices were in the USD100/barrel (bbl) range, North America’s naturalgas liquids–based ethylene producers hada feedstock advantage of about USD1,000/

metric ton over naphtha-based producersin Asia, according to estimates by IHSChemical. With oil closer to USD50/bbl, theadvantage has been reduced to USD500–600/metric ton.

Some North American projects may not

2.2% is the Chemical share

in world GDP


10/24January 201610

be as compelling or reliable as they oncewere in a low oil price environment. Theincentive is growing to postpone investment

decisions or even cancel some projects.In contrast, chemical manufacturers inthese same swing markets will invest moreaggressively when oil prices bounce back.

If oil prices recovered faster, chemicalsector output prices expanded faster andmargins appear healthier with an increasingportion of global production riding onthe back of unconventional feedstockstrategies, including US shale gas andChinese coal-to-olens, which are price

independent of oil. Crackers using ethanefeedstock will be able to piggyback on the

upward movement in oil, pocketing highermargins in the process.

Transport benets from loweroperating costs and higher demandThe transportation industries are also majorbeneciaries of low oil prices. There is a direct

cost benet from lower fuel prices. Fuel costs

are the largest percentage of operationalexpenses in transportation. Transportationwill also see a signicant impact on its output

from consumer and business spendingchanges, from a volume perspective.

In a low oil price scenario, the portion ofthe transportation sector that serves themidstream part of the energy supply chainwill see a downturn in volumes due to thelower supply from the marginal suppliers.Transport of oil and gas—mainly via

pipelines, rail, and water-based shipping—should see a decline in operations, eventhough the cost of fuel falls and the total

transportation sector is lifted overall.

Energy savings are lifting end-consumer demandThe motor vehicles sector, which includestrucks, trailers, and buses, in addition topassenger vehicles, will mainly benet from

low oil prices via the oil price impact onconsumer and business spending.

A lower cost for fuel leaves more moneyfor buyers to spend, in particular thosecustomers with high incomes or big budgets.In such times, consumers are also more

inclined to buy more vehicles—larger,heavier, and less-fuel-efcient, but also

more protable.

Countries that are large producers of oilsee a negative (or positive) consequencefrom a low (or high) price of oil. Big hits totheir oil revenues and their economy resultin less spending on motor vehicles. Majoroil-consuming countries, or those where theoil sector is not such a dominant feature,will see a net benet to the motor vehicle

industry from low fuel prices. (see table 12)Capital expenditures by the motor vehicle

industry respond to the changing levels ofoutput and expected protability among thealternative scenarios on oil prices. Higherdemand for motor vehicles under the low oilprice scenarios drives the capital spendinghigher during the next three years. With

Table 12: Motor vehicles output change 2017; regional performance low oil price vs.baseline 2017 (percent basis points)

-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100

38 World total



Africa42

Asia-Pacific38

Western Europe19

Latin & Central America, excl. Mexico17

-264Middle East


278

-264

Total output

11% is the Transport &logistics share in

world GDP


Sectoral Report



higher oil prices, capital spending willincrease at a slower pace.

A strong US dollar, placed alongside the

low price of oil, also has an impact on theindividual countries. This effect benets

capital spending by the industry outside theUnited States, such as in Europe and Asia.Latin and Central America see particularlystrong increases in real capital spendingwith low oil prices and further ramping-up ifthe US dollar remains strong.

With the motor vehicle industry’s longsupply chain, changes in output can alsotranslate into sizeable impacts on thesupplying sectors. Major adjustments inthe output of motor vehicles can have a

strong inuence on the output of metals,electronics, machine tools, and otherindustrial machinery.

Investment location driven bycurrency movements A strong US dollar has the impact ofmoving the growth of production fromone geographic region to another, in linewith the country currency’s standing inrelation to the US dollar. Up to 30% of themachinery produced in the United Statescan be designated for export so currency

uctuations have a profound inuence onthe industry. A stronger US dollar will givea competitive advantage to European and Asian manufacturers. They will see theirglobal market share improve not only inmachinery, but in primary and fabricatedmetals as well.

The impact of low oil is difcult to distill

from global industry currents, especiallygiven the strengthening of the US dollaragainst most major currencies of bothdeveloped and emerging economies.The US economy and economies whose

currencies are pegged to the US dollar, suchas the United Arab Emirates and Abu Dhabi,are confronted with a competitivenesschallenge in terms of costs relative to manyeconomies in Europe and Asia.

The bigger picture and Asia’s raceup the value-added ladder Other, particularly longer-term trends matter,

too. Asia’s manufacturing landscape isundergoing important changes, with bothregional and global implications. As Chinamoves up the value-added chain, partlyby necessity because of rising incomesand labor costs that have eroded itscompetitiveness in low-cost industries, it willcompete more directly with current tradingpartners within the region and globally forinvestment and market share.

Whereas it presents a risk for countriessuch as Korea, Japan, Malaysia, andSingapore, given the increasing competition,

new opportunities arise for lower-costcountries such as the South and Southeast Asian economies of Vietnam, Cambodia,Indonesia, and India. These countrieshave the potential to benet not only from

improved market share as China exits somelow-end industries, but also from increasedinvestment and outsourcing from thecountries now more directly threatened byChinese competition. There is compellingevidence that this phenomenon is alreadytaking place, with countries such as Koreaand Japan sharply boosting investments in

the markets of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in recent years.

Tourism Transport & Logistics Manufacturing Media Financial Services

30% share of machinery

produced in the UnitedStates designated for

export


12/24

About IHS: www.ihs.comIHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape.

Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent

analysis and exible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and condence.

IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005.

Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, protable growth and employs approximately

9,000 people in 31 countries around the world.

ContactsIHS Global GmbH,Bleichstrasse 1, 60313 Frankfurt, Germany

Ralf Wiegert Director Consulting – IHS Economics & Country Risk

[email protected] +49 (0)69 20973 320+49 (0)151 42628 143

Matthias HerlesDirector Consulting – IHS Economics & Country Risk

[email protected]

+49 (0)69 20973 218+49 (0)174 1946560

Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry,P.O. Box 662, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.

Ohan S Balian, Ph.D.Chief Economist – Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce &[email protected]

www.abudhabichamber.ae+971 2 617 7470

www.ihs.com :ؤ ن ةذ

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31 دو ول ام.


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www.abudhabichamber.ae

Address: Main Building of Abu Dhabi Chamber, Corniche Road, P.O.Box: 662

Phone: 00971-2-6214000, Email: [email protected]


14/2411

اطب ار ارات ظل ورات

أرا قا لد عرا إ طا رأ د

ل اوام ا ا .و ارع أر اط

.ئط

ورة

أرا

اق

دل

ر

إن وة ادور ار إ ب اض

أر اط ؤر ل د دة. وذا ار

ود اق ارأ رج

اوت ادة ار ورو وآ .ود

را ددا و طواو ا رأ

دل اق ارأ ا اض و

ا ن ارع إذا اظ ادور زو أر اط

.و را

وطا

ات د ا د ا

خل

ون

إ

اج

ات را

ر

ن

ات را

طت

ارى

ات را

دى

إ

ة ر ا

إج

أ ر ط

ا

ارى

ادت

وؤر

.اورد

واروت

ادن

إج

ئل

ل

ات را

.ا

ات

ن

رو

ا

ات ود ا و

ك ت ت ر ح ل فوع ن خ د ر ث س قو

ؤر وة ادور ار ال و اج

فو ر ار و ن

ادو ل ادور ار .ن ص

أر ن %30ن ات ا اوت

ت

و

در

را

ا ذات ر غ ا .ق وة ادة

ا ت ةز را رودا

ن اظر أن د اورو واو .إذ

ط س ا قوا ن

.أ او وا ندا نو تا

ب ل أر اض ر اط ن رات

ظر إ وة ادور ا ا

ار ل ظم ارات ارى ل ن

ادت اطورة وائ د واء. إن

اد ار وره ن ادت ادان

ل

را

ادور

أم

ر

ا

ارات ار ادة وأو ظ وا دي

ادرة ا ن اف ارط دد

.آو وروأ تدا ن

م

ر

اوي

واق

ار

اورة

ا

ا

أ ات ارى اطول آ ذ

آ

ا

اد

.أ

أ

إ تار بر رو تار

ا ا نا ر .و

دا ارورة وظرا رع ادول وف

ا ا درت در ا ات

س ان رء ارة ادل

ما ىو و ما لاد نا

ار و اوق ل ر.

وث إ ل طورة ض ادان ل

ور وان وز وورة ظرا زدة م

ل

ال

دان

ددة

رص

ظر

ا داو ودإو دوو م تدا

ةرد نادا هذ .آ قر بوو بو

د قوا ن ن ط س ةدا

أت ان ض ات اط ون ن

ر رد او أ تارا ةدز

ا ن ر ل ا د را نادا ن

اد دأ كو .ا توا ا

دوث ذه اظرة ل م ض ادان ل

ور وان زدة ارا أواق دول

راط وب رق آ اوات ارة.

و للوجستیلسی حة

لخدم ت لم لیإلعاللتصنیلنقل

ظ

أو

و

رة

ر

و

م

©وار

طا

وق

30% share of machinery

produced in the UnitedStates designated for

export


15/24

طا ررا

ودا قاوسا ظ وأ ترش

ر و ن اد س

وزداد از ت إن اض ر اط.

ل ارارات ار أو إء ض

ت

د

ذك

ن

اض

و

.اروت

اذ را قاوا ئا داوا

إ زد ن ار د را أر اط.

ر إذا ت أر اط ورة أرع

أر إج طع اواد ائ ر ودو

واش ار أر ا زدة اج

دا ر تارا د ا ا

ذك از اري ار واروت

ا ول ام إ أوت وا د

نوئا ن .طا ر رأ

وا نا ةد نود ن طا ر

و

اط

را

را

اد

ن

.ا هذ را شاوا ن دزا

ف

اخض

ن

ال

طع

ادة

اطب

دل

وارع

اغل

د ت ال ن أر اطت ادة ن

ر ةر ك .طا رأ ضا

ا راء اض أر اوود. ق

ف اوود أ ئو ن ث ف

ال طع ال. د ال را

وظ ن راء ارات ا طرأ

إق اك وارت ن ظور ام.

و ق رو اض أر اط

د طع ال ا دم ازء اوط

ن اداد ط ا ام ظرا

.نا ندروا ن دادا ار

-ر طوط اب أن د ل اط واز

واك ادد وان اري ام اول-

اض

ن

ارم

ات

ا

.و لا عط عراو دووا

اك

طب

دل

ن

ر

طا

وورات

ئا

د طع ارت ا اذي ن ات

وارت اطورة وات ن رت

ارن- د ام اول ن اض

أر اط ن ل ر ر اط إق

اك وارت.

ق

اوال

ن

ازد

اط

أر

اخض

ح

ازات

أو

ا

ادخول

ذوي

ان

ارن

أر

اون

ل

اوت

ك

ل

و

.خا

ة

وال

وال

ار

-ارات

ن

زد

را

إ

.أ

ر

وار

وود

اك

ت ط إ را نادا د

(أو ارع) أر اط. (أو إ (راء اض

إذ ر ارات ا ائ ئدات اط

واد ن اق ارات. أ ادان

ار ا ط أو ك ا د طع اط

ن اطت ارئ ا وف ق

ادة رة ارات راء اض

أر اوود. (را ادول 12) ا أرا تا ب

وا راو ةرا جا تو تارا

ن ن اورات اد ر اط. ؤدي

300- 250- 200- 150- 100- 50- 0 50 100

38 اإلجمالي العالمي

66وروبا الشرقية وكومنولث

(إس

سي ي

)المستقلة

الدول

وروبا الشرقية وكومنولث

(إس

سي ي

)المستقلة

الدول

59

فريقيا

42

38 سيا والمحيط الهادي

19 وروبا الغربية

17 مريكا الالتينية و مريكا الوسطى عدا المكسيك

264-وس أل ق شل

انخفاض سعار النفط اإلقليمية مقابل خط األساس 2017 الجدول :12تغير ناتج المركبات المزودة بمحركات لعام 2017(نقاط األساس المئوية)

© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بو ظبي حقوق لطبع و لنشر IHS World Industry Service :ردصمل

المكسيك

فيها

بما

الشمالية

مريكا

278

264-

لناتج إلجمالي

%11 ح ال واوت

ا حا ا إ

ر 2016 10


16/249

120- 100- 80- 60- 40- 20- 0 20 40 60

38 اإلجمالي العالمي

43 مريكا الشمالية بما فيها المكسيك

43 سيا والمحيط الهادي

41 وروبا الغربية

39 وروبا الشرقية وكومنولث

(سي ي إس) الدول المستقلة

13 فريقيا

13مريكا الالتينية و مريكا الوسطى عدا المكسيك

106-وس أل ق شل


219

106-


(نقاط األساس المئوية) انخفاض سعار النفط اإلقليمية مقابل خط األساس 20 الجدول :11تغير ناتج المواد الكيميائية لعام 2017

ؤدي ادم اذي ظ اون إ ن ط

ان إ ال ار ا د إق

ان ل ذ ا زئ وادق واطم.

طا

أر

خض

ا

ار

ر

ؤدي رص ل ددة قخ إ را دا

واد. ا ل را إ أ هرود

ادي

اط و

آ

ول د

ط

د

ا

طت

دة ئ

خ

ان و

ان

.اط

أر

اخض

را

واد

اش طؤ

وطة

خف

اط

أر

اخض

م

ا رئخا ضو س نو يراورو أ ن رو د أر أ د .د

ر ط تارا قو دو ر نأ إ اط .را

ادة

وت

ر

ازا

إ

اغل

ف

ن

ل

اط

أر

اخض

...ئا

اواد

د أدى د أر اط إ دوث ول ر

ن دد ا اواو دا ا

دل اواد ام اواد ائ ول ام. ن ف إج اواد ر %80-70 طاو

ئا داوا جإ لد ر .ئا

يدا وا ا با إ . ظل ائ ا د اض أر اط

ؤدي اض أر اط إ إداث ر

ا أر اواد ائ ادى

ار. وظرا ن ظم ان رون إ وة ظ اون دة ا ن ارزة اض ار وورة اروت. ؤر

اض ار وض ارع اج ون

ؤدي إ ف ات ا وار م

ادى ار. و أرا

إن اواد ائ م ن ار

ت

أن

د

اوق

دة

زاون

اذن

ات ا ا وا س اخ ذ ا

اظر فر وز نو نأ را دول 11) ا ار) .طا رأ ضخا وأ عرا ن

ن از ل ئا داوا ن ارظو

وا دا م و بطا و باو وا

و ؤ IHS وق أدا .و ذا او ط دو ط ةدروا نادا ئا داوا كا

وذك د خض أر أدائ ادان ادرة ط

واس ح د ر أر اط دة. اط

ت

ض

ة

ن

أرت

و

... ان

اغب

ف

ن

اج

إن اواء ا ئ اض أر اط و أر إ ئن ر اط

د نو نذاو آ قرو وروأ

ادادات اددة ائ اوت ادة . را نا قطو طوا قراو را

ور د

100 م خا

اط

رل

ر

غ

د

ون د ا

طا

از

ئل ا و

و

ز

رأ

اط

دن ا

م ئ ا ر ظ

ان

اري

طن

رأ

ور د

1000 و

آ

ؤ

ن

ة ر د ا

ات رد

و

ذك و

اد وا

إ

دة ئ ا

ات ر

ون

.IHS Chemical د

اد وا

اري

طن

رأ

ور د

600-500 .رأ

ور د

50

ن

اط

رل

ر

و د

اا رأ را ض نو د

%2.2

ئا

اواد

ح

ا حا ا إ

ظ

أو

و

رة

ر

و

م

©وار

طا

وق


17/24

طا ررا


ل ذا اور. ا ءادأ ط

ذك ا ندا عط جإ لاز و

ث زام اون إء اط د زاد

أرا

ات

أن

إ

اوق

م

ور ف اوت ذا ن اص.

ات ارأ ن ض ا ا ط

رب اء اد. (را ادول 8) ئرطا تا ر ار را ما قط نإ

ل ا قطا ك طا رأ

ا دا را ا زاو طا جإ

اط رأ ضخا و .وا تا دا را و

ادرة ط) لودا ظ) وك أ ظ أ

ا رأ و رأ و طوا قرا ةرا

او .ول لا و ا و تا دا را ضخا ن

وا قا ص ك ذ را ئا

ادول 9) ار) .لا تا را فو

اط

إج

اثر

طا ن لا ن نأ وا ن

ول اف ادى ار ن زدة م

. إج اط واز وض اوط ار زئ

ن ار ارب ئدات اط ن و ذك

ر أر اط وق ر م اج ار.

ا وون ف زاو طا نأ

اطول و

اوط

ان

اج

م

أن ادد خض اوت. نو اط د رأ لظ ذإ

ط ر ل م ط ا نادا ن

اخض ن نا د نذا ئا دا واو ارزا

.وا دا واو دووا رأ

ا

ا

طع

احد

اوط

اض أر اط ار وادم ل

ؤدي اء واد. و ادان ا ورد اط

ئارا

اوة

زدة

إ

اوود

اق

اض

ن وزدة ارح رت.

ا ر داو ءا ط ف او

وزدة اق ء ازل وإدل ات.

ُرس ط اء واد دال و ذك

ؤر زواو جاو طا ن با

اء واد د اض أر

دم ئدات ا نادا ض و اط.

اط دم إء ان ود ون اد اد

طا ل فو د إ طا

اد

م

ون

اط

أر

اض

راء

دا(10 لودا ار) .ا ر تاءا ن

اط

أر

اخض

ن

ا

اوائد

اط

أر

ط

ا

ادول

م

ون

ط

ا

ادول

ن

ا

ادي

اد. و ا فط إ ر ك

ادة توا داو ا ل طر

طرا ن رأ يرا او ن را

ا ا ط قا د رو .ط

اط رأ د د يذا ما عرأ ةرو

أر

ات

أن

دو

.اس

خط

ر ا عط أي ر وس أدا س فر ا

داو ا عط ةرا اد. و

ات ذات ط وا ار. دا د ا و ا

(نقاط األساس المئوية) انخفاض أسعار النفط اإلقليمية مقابل خط األساس 2017 الجدول :10تغير ناتج األسمنت والزجاج والبنا


400- 350- 300- 250- 200- 150- 100- 50- 0 50

22اإلجمالي العالمي

47سيا والمحيط الهادي

47وروبا الغربية

30مريكا الشمالية بما فيها المكسيك

وروبا الشرقية وكومنولث

(سي ي إس) الدول المستقلة

26

فريقي-20

49-المكسي

عدا

الوسطى

و مريكا

الالتينية

مريكا

372-لش ق

173

709-


%70+ ئا داوا جإ ف نطاو وا داوا ن ةد

ر 2016 8


18/247

و ان خ ن ذه اش حث

ورد

طت

ا

ا

ادرة

ظر

خص

حوطا

اوت

د

م

. ا

وا د راع اسرات أل ا ى بطا

ان. ون زات ان ن ادان

اى أدا ف ادول. (راع ادول 7)

حاو ةرو ل يدا وا عار د

راع احز اسرات وذج او را

ا ن أل زدة ارز ى اسك.

ن إق اسن ارن و ح ار

غض اظر ن ات اخرة اسواق

ر ا اح سؤدي إى وض ز

. او رسا ن فاو خارا ن

اط

أر

اخض

ثر

اظر

إدة

ئا هذ طا ر ضا ر ةو ىد

د ت أر اط ر إ أن ات

ا ن اوت ف. ودو أن أواق ز ترا

ا دت إ اوت ا .و ذه

اوت اد ادت ار وال

اداو ودق ار ا رات ن

ا ر إدى ئت اول.

ار

اط

أر

اخض

ر

دى

در و

رض

ث

را و

IHS ؤ

وت

خف

.اط

أر

دا

ن

زد

وث د

ن

ور ا

ذا

را و

ان

اض ر ا

ور

ور د

30 رق

IHS ؤ

ا

اوت

.اد وا

اط

رل

رأ

رأ

دور

30 طا رأ ضخااواحد

رل

ن ات ا ن أن ق و

ا تا ك فورظا هذ لظ حا

ا

اطت

ق

.اك

إق

د

طرا ر ت أرا تازا

2017 اس س أل ا طخ لب ا ق م ةيمل ا عل ا طفن ل ا را ع س ضا ف خ ن ا :8 لودجل ا

1200-

1000-

800-

600-

400-

200-

0

200

400

والشخصية

االجتماعية

الخدمات

والمطاعم

الفنادق

التعدين

والعقارات وخدمات األعمال

بالتجزئة

والتجارة

بالجملة

والتجارة

التصنيع

المرافق

الوساطة المالية

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

االتصاالت

التخزين

النقل

التعليم

الخدمات المنزلية الخاصة

خدمات الرعاية الصحية

الزراعة

والتشييد

البنا

والدفاع

العامة

اإلدارة

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O

496لتغير لناتج

نقاط ألساس

-756لتغير لنفقات لر سمالية

نقاط ألساس


-انخفاض سعر النفط مقابل خط األساس والبلدان األدنى أدا الجدول :9البلدان األعلى أدا

© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بو ظبي حقوق الطبع والنشر IHS World Industry Service :ردصملا

القطاعات الثالثة الرئيسية

المرافق

والشخصية

االجتماعية

الخدمات

التصنيع

القطاعات الثالثة المتدنية

الزراعة

والدفاع

العامة

اإلدارة

التعدين

الشمالية

أمريكا

:1المكسيك

تشمل

*

58

55

48

27

12

169-


والمطاعم

الفنادق

الخاصة

المنزلية

الخدمات

الوساطة المالية القطاعات


الصحية

الرعاية

خدمات

والدفاع

العامة

اإلدارة

التعدين

66

55

53

20

13

90-

الغربية

أوروبا

:2


التعدين

الزراعة

النقل والتخزين واالتصاالت


الخاصة

المنزلية

الخدمات

والدفاع

العامة

اإلدارة

والتشييد

البنا

406

87-

127-

286-

374-

386-

األوسط

الشرق

:3


الخاصة

المنزلية

الخدمات

االتصاالت

ووسائل

والتخزين

النقل

التعليم


التعدين

الصحية

الرعاية

خدمات

الزراعة

57

49

46

34

32

28

الهادي

والمحيط

آسيا

:4

(نقاط األساس المئوية) * تغير الناتج اإلضافي 2017

30ا

دور

رل

دور

ا

رق

و اط حول م 2017

ظ

أو

و

رة

ر

و

م

©وار

طا

وق


19/24

طا ررا


وازان طع ان ن إف اد

و ا طو نا قطإو ا

را مظا ف ارظو .تاو ةد ئو

د ادد ن ادان ف أء ام

زأ ةرإ إ نا عط را يدؤ

.ا

د

ارر

ن

زد

وإق

ددة

ارى

ادورة

حل

ل

أر

ا

د ا

ات را

خ

و

ف

ب

إ

"ا

ر

ارى

دورة ا

"

دة د

أد

إ

ن

را

دور ا

ووة

ان

خل

.ا

ا و

دي ا

اب ر ط

اطب

و

أدت

ا

وف

ارن

ات و ا

ارع

إ

-ان

أر

و

-ئا

اق و ا

وا

ذه

أن

إ

ا د

ئ را

ا

ل

أر

ئا

اق و ا

ن

ادد

او

ا ر

د

ت

(5 دول ا

ا ر

) .ة

ا

ا

م خ و

ر

اوط

ت

ل

ر م ل اوط إ أد و د.

ور اض أر ا ا .واض

نا IHS ؤ ا داوا رأ رؤ %37.5ن ام اق و %54.5 ن

ادل ار اذي ول إ م 2013. إ داوا رأ رؤ لو و ار

اوى اذي ار اول ن م 2009 و ار ن ات ل رة اد اظم.

IHS ؤ

درات

ن

أل

ار

ءت

.ا دا لا ف طو

ط ا را تو ل

ن ا را برو .ا

م 2008ر إ رب وط أر

ا .و ارم ن ا رب و اوط

إ أ ن ن اش ار ادى

ارب ي ل ن اوال.

ثا

ض

ارب

ادى

اوت

اول

اف

ئ

إ

ا او

ا

ذه

ددا اوا س نأ ن ن م 2015

ض أر اط وت ا ء

ض ا .إذ رض اد اط ل ارة

(ا طا) 2017-2014ات م(اط ارأ) .(را ادول 6) وأداء او ر و لد ق ا تطا ل

ن ةدا تطا سا

اورد وار ن اك ائ ل طت

ئرا تاو ما طئوو توا

وذك ات اد ل طع وراو

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© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بو ظبي حقوق لطبع و لنشر IHS :ردصمل

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© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بو ظبي حقوق لطبع و لنشر IHS :ردصمل

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2 0 1 4 - Q 4

2 0 1 5 - Q 1

2 0 1 5 - Q 2

© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بو ظبي حقوق لطبع و لنشر

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