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Transcript of Ohan Balian 2016 Introducing Value-Added Tax in the UAE. Policy Brief, Issue 03-31032016, April 2016
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8/16/2019 Ohan Balian 2016 Introducing Value-Added Tax in the UAE. Policy Brief, Issue 03-31032016, April 2016
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www.abudhabichamber.ae
Policy Brief
Introducing Value-Added Taxin the United Arab Emirates
April 2016Issue 03-31032016
In association with
www.ihs.com
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Introducing Value-Added Tax in the United Arab Emirates
April 20162
Policy Brief
ContentsExecutive summary 3
Context and importance of the problem 3
Critique of policy options 4
Policy recommendations 6
Appendix 8
Sources consulted or recommended 8
Cover image: Shutterstock/Philip Lange/IHS
www.abudhabichamber.ae
www.linkedin.com/company/abu-dhabi-chamber
About IHS: www.ihs.comIHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information,
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Bleichstrasse 1, 60313 Frankfurt, Germany
Ralf Wiegert
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Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry,
P.O. Box 662, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.
Ohan S Balian, Ph.D.
Chief Economist – Abu Dhabi Chamber
of Commerce & Industry
www.abudhabichamber.ae
+971 2 617 7470
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© 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry 3
Executive summaryThe Supreme Council of the United Arab Emirates
resolved to introduce a value-added tax with a
tax rate of 5% by January 2018. The new tax will
broaden the government’s revenue base and reduce
the dependence on oil, which is a prerequisite for
sustainable nances. The new tax will also provide
for a transparent and reasonably fair system to
nance the government budget. At the same time
the new tax will trim households’ purchasing power
and potentially reduce the country’s attractiveness
for tourists. Moreover, survey evidence suggests that
some small-and-medium-sized enterprises might be
particular adversely affected by the new tax, which
is a serious concern for the private sector. However,
a carefully crafted communication strategy will help
the public and the corporate sector to understand
the new tax. The relatively long lead time suggests
that households and companies should be able
to prepare for the introduction of the tax and thus
mitigate negative effects. That having been said,
the government and monetary authorities still
should safeguard the introduction with contingency
measures to avoid second-round effects on price
ination or an ill-timed dampener for demand in
times of weak growth.
Context and importanceof the problemWith oil prices at their lowest in years, the need
to develop alternative sources of revenues have
become a top priority for Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) countries, where state budgets depend
primarily on hydrocarbon revenues. Meanwhile,
global nancial-market uncertainty and political
transitions throughout the Middle East make a
reconsideration of national public nance all the
more necessary.
Recognizing the importance of economic reform,
including nding new sources of revenue that could
offset growing scal decits and public debts, in
December 2015, representatives of the six GCC
countries agreed in Riyadh on key issues regarding
the implementation of a value-added tax (VAT) in
the region.
Implemented in approximately 150 countries
worldwide and in every non–US OECD country, a
VAT system requires businesses to pay taxes on the
difference between their total sales and the cost of
their purchases of inputs. That difference between
the sellers’ purchased price and the retail price
represents the value added to a specic product or
service by each rm in the value chain. VATs differ
from retail sales taxes in that they are typically
collected at each stage of production and serve as
an overall consumption tax.
150Number of countries with VAT implemented
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Introducing Value-Added Tax in the United Arab Emirates
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Policy Brief
While the GCC framework agreement on the
implementation of a VAT is not expected until June
2016, the six GCC countries, including the United
Arab Emirates (UAE), were left to develop their
individual plans for implementation beginning in 2018.
In the UAE, where there is federal income-tax
legislation for general business, Minister of State for
Financial Affairs Obaid Humaid Al Tayer announced
in February that a 5% VAT will be go into effect on 1
January 2018.
This rate falls on the lowest end of the spectrum
for OECD countries where, as of 2015, the rates
spanned from 8.0% (Japan) to 27.0% (Hungary) and
had an average rate across all OECD countries of
18.7% (see table1).
The VAT will create a critical foundation for a nonoil
tax system that will be less subject to both oil-price
movements and production declines, dene clearer
roles and responsibilities for both the governmentand its citizens, and provide tools that can enable
efciency, equity, and long-term economic stability.
The following pages summarize these benets—
as well as the challenges—associated with the
introduction of a VAT.
Critique of policy options A new source of revenue
True to its intention, a VAT provides an opportunity
for diversifying the scal revenue base and has the
potential to raise substantial revenue, which could
then be used to support essential investments in
infrastructure, healthcare, and education, as well
as targeted social assistance for poor or vulnerable
populations.
A key metric for estimating VAT revenue is the so-
called yield ratio. The VAT yield ratio is dened as
a percent share of GDP that can be raised for each
percentage-point rise in the VAT tax rate. Usually,
the yield ratio is given without considering costs of
policies intended to compensate households for
purchasing power lost in the VAT’s introduction.
The yield ratio varies wildly across countries,
reecting the efcacy of the tax administration and
degree of tax avoidance. A low yield ratio of 0.21
for Mexico or a high ratio of 0.58 in New Zealand
means that for each percentage-point increase
in the VAT rate, tax revenue equal to 0.21% and
0.58%, respectively, is generated.
In the UAE, provisional estimates showed the
Table 1: Standard VAT rates for OECDcountries, 2015
Country VAT rate
Australia 10
Austria 20
Belgium 21
Canada 5
Chile 19
Czech Republic 21
Denmark 25
Estonia 20Finland 24
France 20
Germany 19
Greece 23
Hungary 27
Iceland 24
Ireland 23
Israel 18
Italy 22
Japan 8
Korea 10
Luxembourg 17
Mexico 16
Netherlands 21
New Zealand 15
Norway 25
Poland 23
Portugal 23
Slovak Republic 20
Slovenia 22
Spain 21
Sweden 25
Switzerland 8
Turkey 18
United Kingdom 20
Source: OECD © 2016 IHS
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© 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry 5
tax could raise up to USD6.5 billion by 2019—
equivalent to 1.5% of UAE GDP. This would be
similar to the yield ratio estimated for the Brookings
Hamilton Project’s proposal for a VAT in the United
States, which estimated that a VAT of 5%, when
paired with subsidies to offset the regressive effects,
could raise about 1% of GDP per year.
Among non-US OECD members in 2009, the VAT
raised 6.4% of GDP in revenue and accounted for
19.2% of revenue raised at all levels of government.
Efcient, easy to administer
In the most common implementation of the VAT,
producers are taxed based on their total output, then
receive credit for taxes they have paid on purchases
to other rms. By offering a tax credit in addition to
the tax liability, this system encourages compliance.
Moreover, as a lump-sum tax on existing wealth
(rather than income), these consumption taxes can
be designed to eliminate household distortions in
economic choices and allow revenue to be earnedregardless of the point of sale (e.g., retail location,
online order, etc.).
While the current UAE plan to exempt a number of
food, health, transportation, education, and other
social service items will affect how efciently the
tax can be administered, the more broadly the VAT
is applied uniformly on all goods and services,
the less it will distort relative prices among
consumption goods.
A fair and transparent system
By implementing transparent and nonnegotiable tax
systems, governments have the opportunity to more
clearly dene the relationship between the citizen and
the state—and demonstrate the roles that each play
in maintaining its well-being and future prosperity.
By broadly publicizing its 5% VAT, the UAE will
not only prevent perceptions of unfairness due
to corruption but can also introduce a more
accurate and regular line item in public reports
or communications regarding scal revenues
and projections. To this latter point, professor of
economics at New York University Abu Dhabi,
Christian Haefke, explains, “Through VAT,
policymakers will have much better ways of
measuring economic activity because they will have
more real-time insights into economic activity.”
Notably, a VAT does not necessarily hurt tourists
across the board and for all goods purchased in the
UAE, since many countries offer the option to rebate
the VAT on exports at the border. Meanwhile, by
taxing imports at the VAT rate, a country can ensure
an even playing eld across imported and domestic
consumption goods.
VAT: regressive or proportional?
Despite their consistent rate across productsand services, VATs are not always viewed
as progressive and, in fact, might be seen as
regressive if the tax burden is measured as a share
of current household income. Alternatively, the tax
is considered proportional if it is instead evaluated
based on the amount households are taxed as a
percentage of their current level of consumption, or
with respect to the percentage of lifetime income
spent on consumption.
Moreover, the potentially regressive nature of the
tax, which could hurt disadvantaged populations
such as the elderly, youth, unemployed, or low-wage
earners, can be counteracted either by exemptions
to critical goods and services or through cash
transfers, rebates, or income-tax credits that offset
the damage from the VAT.
For example, in the Hamilton Project’s proposal for
a VAT in the United States, the 5% VAT would be
paired with a cash payment of about USD450 per
adult and about USD200 per child to offset the
cost to low-income families. In this proposal, the
In OECD countries VAT has raised 6.4% ofGDP in revenue and accounted for 19.2% ofgovernment revenue
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Introducing Value-Added Tax in the United Arab Emirates
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Policy Brief
Brookings Institution’s William G. Gale and Urban
Institute’s Benjamin H. Harris estimate that this
cash payment would be the equivalent of annually
refunding each two-parent, two-child household the
VAT paid on the rst USD26,000 of consumption.
The UAE proposal for a VAT, which would share
the burden among all who benet from the
purchase of goods and services beyond essentials,
can be viewed as more progressive than the
personal income-tax systems implemented in other
parts of the Middle East, which have low top-tier
rates for the highest income earners (and taxes
on capital gains or other nonwage earnings are
excluded). Compared with corporate income taxes,
VATs are much less likely to discourage business
formation or growth (see chart 1).
Other reasons for caution
Some further downsides should be acknowledged
and either mitigated or monitored closely.
The rst is ination—the creation of an add-on VAT
will create upward pressure on prices, which could
further exacerbate price increases resulting from
the UAE utility subsidy cuts that began in 2015. It is
currently difcult to foresee with enough certainty
how high price ination will be at the point when
the VAT is implemented. It may or may not be an
ill-timed step. If it exacerbates price pressures too
much, countervailing policies should be considered
as an option (see chart 2).
The second is the perception that it will threaten (or
at least dampen) economic competitiveness and thecorresponding growth it drives. A widespread concern
is that the VAT could make the Gulf less attractive for
foreign companies. In their proposal for a 5% VAT
in the United States, the authors acknowledge that
“theory and evidence suggest that the compliance
burden would likely fall more heavily—as a
percentage of sales—on smaller businesses.”
In fact, one 2010 survey conducted by Intuit in the
United Kingdom found that more than one-third of
small business owners (39%) were absorbing the
additional cost of the VAT increase, rather than
passing it on to their customers. This signals that
the VAT might hurt the private sector in particular.
However, 67% of small businesses that responded
to the UK survey stated that the VAT increase did not
affect their business, indicating that the tax may be
less harmful to competitiveness than critics claim.
Policy recommendations As Abu Dhabi eshes out its plans for the
implementation of the VAT in 2018, there are several
considerations it might keep in mind:
Property
Trade
Corporate income
Personal income
Excise
VAT
Goods and services
UAESaudi Arabia*Qatar JordanEgypt Oman KuwaitBahrain Tunisia
0%
5%
10%
15%>46%
Chart 1: Tax revenue by category in selected MENA countries (percent of nonoil GDP)
Source: IMF © 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & IndustryNote: Owing to discrepancies between the latest data point across categories or incomplete information, components may not add up to the total*Does not include revenue from zakat
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© 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry 7
Education: helping the public
understand the purpose of the VAT—
and the importance of compliance
For a populace that has not been exposed previously
to state taxes, a carefully crafted communication
strategy will be essential to making sure that citizensand residents understand the nature and cost of
public services provided using tax receipts and the
necessary steps required for VAT compliance and
effective policy implementation. The communications
will need to include everything from how, when, and
where the tax will be applied; to how the VAT will
advance equity, close the scal gap, and contribute
to necessary improvements in health, education,
and social services; to how to le for a credit or
rebate. In communications about all these topics,
transparency will be key, as well as understanding
which messages resonate with stakeholders and the
appropriate channels for communication.
Timing
While the introduction of a VAT in the UAE is
currently planned for 2018, it should be carefully
timed so as to not derail the region’s economic
growth path, especially in a scenario where the
UAE’s growth momentum slackens more severely
as a result of low oil prices and cascading effects.
Moreover, policymakers must closely guard against
ballooning price ination in order to avoid harmful
second-round effects on consumer prices.
Keep tax base broad; avoid further
complexity
Since an all-encompassing tax prevents consumers
from trying to substitute between tax-exempt and
taxable purchases—and policymakers from trying to
determine the “necessities” of the populations they
are trying to protect—the more goods and services
that are subject to the VAT, the greater the expected
efciency. While the GCC countries have already
agreed to exempt health, education, bicycles, social
services, and 100 food items from the VAT, as the
UAE develops its own plans for the VAT rollout in
2018, it can avoid adding additional exemptions
or preferential tax rates, since these would create
further complexity, thereby limiting VAT efciency
and perceived fairness. As mentioned previously,
providing tax credits, refunds, or cash transfers
can be an alternative to preferential tax policies
and ultimately have the same effects on vulnerable
14.9%2008
0.8%2009
3.1%2010
1.9%2011
1.1%2012
1.3%2013
3.2%2014
5.4%2015
Chart 2: Consumer price inflation for Abu Dhabi
Source: SCAD © 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry
100Number of food items which are currently planned
to be exempt from VAT
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Introducing Value-Added Tax in the United Arab Emirates
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Policy Brief
populations or targeted business types.
Consider VAT in relation to broader
system of public nance
Last, at a time when well-designed scal policy is
critical, the VAT should not be seen as a cure-all
for the region’s public nance concerns. Already on
the lowest end of the VAT spectrum among OECD
countries, a VAT may be just one of several tools the
UAE ultimately employs to balance its budget and
create a fair and enduring system of public nance.
Sources consulted orrecommended• Gale, William G. and Harris, Benjamin H., “15
Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget -- Proposal
10: Creating an American Value-Added Tax”, The
Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, February
2013.
• Jewell, Andrew, Mansour, Mario, Mitra, Pritha, and
Sdralevich, Carlo, “IMF Staff Discussion Note: Fair
Taxation in the Middle East and Northern Africa”,
International Monetary Fund, September 2015.• Adam Bouyamourn, “Introduction of VAT in UAE
and Gulf region ‘likely to hit economic growth’”,
The National, http://www.thenational.ae/business/
economy/introduction-of-vat-in-uae-and-gulf-
region-likely-to-hit-economic-growth, retrieved 26
February 2016
• Babu Das Augustine, “UAE to implement 5
per cent VAT from January 2018”, Gulf News,
http://gulfnews.com/news/uae/government/
uae-to-implement-5-per-cent-vat-from-
january-2018-1.1678703, retrieved 15 March 2016
• Vicky Kapur, “UAE conrms no income tax
yet, but 5% VAT is coming”, Emirates 24/7,
http://www.emirates247.com/business/uae-
confrms-no-income-tax-yet-but-5-vat-is-
coming-2016-02-25-1.622208 , retrieved 25
February 2016
• “UAE said to implement 5% VAT from Jan
1, 2018”, Arabianbusiness.com, http://www.
arabianbusiness.com/uae-said-implement-5-
vat-from-jan-1-2018-622778.html , retrieved 24
February 2016
Appendix: MENA: VAT main exemptions under current laws
Country VAT rate
AlgeriaBread, milk, certain pharmaceutical products, newspapers, periodicals, books, sports materials produced in
Algeria and acquired by the national sports federation
Egypt (applies only to general
sales tax)
Restaurant foods (outside hotels), books and magazines, local dairy products, pasta and bread, meat and
sh, domestic fruits and vegetables, baked sweets
Jordan
Bread; wheat; olive oil; construction steel bars; fuel derivatives; vehicles; medicines and medical supplies;
valuable metals (gold-made jewelry, diamonds, precious stones); electricity; water; education; construction
and real-estate activities; mobile phone subscriptions; nancial intermediation and insurance
IranUnprocessed agricultural products, our, bread, meat, sugar, rice, cereals, soya, milk, cheese, vegetable oil,
baby food, books and notebooks, medical products and services, education services, pet food
LebanonMedical services, education, agricultural farm supplies, all raw food, bread, our, meat, sh, yogurts, rice,sugar, salt, vegetable oil, books, magazines, newspapers, gas for household use
Mauritania Medical services, basic foodstuffs, including bread, meats, vegetables, etc.
MoroccoBasic foodstuffs and items for which prices are regulated; newspapers, periodicals, books, and educational
audio-visual products
TunisiaBasic foodstuffs such as bread, milk, our, etc., and items for which prices are regulated; pharmaceutical
products; newspapers, periodicals, books and educational materials
Yemen Books, newspapers, periodicals, medical services, transportat ion of individuals
Source: IMF © 2016 IHS
Transparency, education and timing are critical forsuccessful implementation
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لمخطط :2تضخم سعار الستھالك ألبوظبي
© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة بوظبي حقوق الطبع والنشر (SCAD) بوظبي اإلحصا - المصدر: مركز
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فرض
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© لعام 2016مملوكة لغرفة تجارة وصناعة أبوظبي حقوق الطبع والنشر (IMF) المصدر: صندوق النقد الدولي قد ال تضاف العناصر إلى المجموع اإلجمالي ا لعدم اكتمال المعلومات ا للتباین بین نقطة البیانات األحدث بین الفئات أو نظر مالحظة: نظر
*ال تشمل اإلیرادات من الزكاة
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12/16
© لام 2016وك لغرف تجارة وصنا بوظبي 5حوق لطبع و لنشر
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في م ر ت لعرب لمحدة
ف مل مقل بر
فرض
ريل 2016
مخص لسي سة
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محدة ف مار ت رب
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