Oh ffs, can we please stop estimating
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Transcript of Oh ffs, can we please stop estimating
Oh ffs, can we please stop estimating
Olga Loyev
Introduction
Why are we here?
Let’s step back
Estimation
What is it we’re trying to achieve?
What we did
Can we do better?
Work in Progress = # of things in being worked on
Lead Time = Time from start to finish
Throughput= How much you get done per period of time
Looking at our data
The less guessing you do, the better
reporting metrics
Little’s Law:
average WIP = average LT x average TP
http://www.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/~tugrul/CS518/Papers/little.pdfhttp://web.mit.edu/sgraves/www/papers/Little's%20Law-Published.pdf
Conditions/assumptions:
● Items of similar size● Conservation of flow: departure rate =
average arrival rate● All work items that enter the system will
eventually be completed and will exit the system
How do we apply it?Time to complete = N/aTP
Or
Time to complete = N* (aLT/aWIP)
Size of stories?
●
Transition mid project
Risk/issues/considerations?
Time/Price at start of project?- Data
Time/Price at start of project?- NO Data
Forecast future release
Milestones
Final thoughts