Offices · 2011. 11. 4. · Savills Research Offices Savills Research I Seoul, Korea November 4,...
Transcript of Offices · 2011. 11. 4. · Savills Research Offices Savills Research I Seoul, Korea November 4,...
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Savills Researchwww.savills.com
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
November 4, 2011
Image: A view of Seoul, CBD
SeoulofficevacancyratesreachedanhistorichighinQ3.However,levelsareunlikelytoclimbhigher,consideringthatanumberoflargeleasesweretransacted,withtherelocationsduetogoaheadinQ4,andalsothedeclineinnewbuildingcompletionsoverthecoming12months.
Prime absorption was again dominated bytenantsrelocatingfromsecondarybuildings,ashighlightedbyDaelimmovingfromasecondaryYBDbuilding to take up 100%of the recentlycompletedTwinTreesonthenorthernfringeoftheCBD.
"CBD net absorption was at the highest level in nearly ten years. However, office demand could not match record new supply, with the vacancy rate climbing to 11.6% due to the completion of four buildings. Investment transactions were dominated by core office properties and the 2011 transaction volume has already exceeded the 2010 level."
TheportfoliosaleofthreecoreofficebuildingsbyRREEFtoaSamsungprivateinvestmentfundwasthestandoutinvestmenttransactionofQ3.AlackofcoreofficesalesislikelyinQ4;however,anumberofsecondaryofficesalesareforecast.
Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 3.4% inQ3, the lowest level in twoyears,on thebackof global economic uncertainty which has thepotentialtonegativelyimpactthemarketheadinginto2012.
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Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
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Market Overview
Monthly rents and vacancy rates by district, Q3/2011
Supply
FournewprimebuildingswerecompletedduringQ3,representinga 7.2% (360,806 sqm) increase in totalleasablestockcomparedwiththepreviousquarter,andthelargestamountofquarterlyprimeofficesupplyinthehistoryoftheSeoulofficemarket.ThreeofthebuildingswerelocatedintheCBD,whereleasablestockincreasedby272,554sqm(12.5%),whilethecompletionofOneIFCsawleasableYeouidobusinessdistrict(YBD)stockincreaseby88,248sqm(9.9%).
Building supply, Q3/2011
District BuildingName GFA(sqm) Floors Remarks
CBDEuljiroMiraeAssetTower(A)andPineAvenue(B)
130,018 25/F-B6/F 49%leased(0%occupied)
CBD Signature TowersSeoul 99,994 17/F-B6/F 1%leased
YBD OneIFC 88,248 32/F-B7/F 76%leased(0%occupied)
CBD YGTower 42,542 23/F-B6/F 68%leased
Total 360,802Source:SavillsKorea
The smallest of theQ3 completions, YGTower, hassignedanumberoftenants;SamsungFireandMarineInsurance(21,223sqm)whichisalsoaninvestorintheproperty,HISKorea(1,137sqm),andYGC(926sqm).OneIFCis76%leasedbutoccupancywillnotcommenceuntilQ4.Recent additions to the project includeGFIKoreaandChinaMerchantSecurities.EuljiroMiraeAssetTowerisawaitingtheQ4arrivalofSKConstruction,whichhassignedupfor65,000sqm,whilePineAvenueisyettosecureatenant.Nearby,Ascendas-ownedSignatureTowershassignedupasingletenant,BursonMarsteller;however,theywilloccupyjust1%oftheproperty.
Fourth quarter supply is limited to LG Twin Tower(East), as the owner-occupied buildingwill return tothemarket following a six-month refurbishment. LG’stotalSeoulprimeofficeoccupancyhasdoubledsincethe commencement of refurbishmentworks on theirheadquartersandanumberofaffiliateswillrelocatetothebuildingpost-refurbishment,aswellastoOneIFC.
Supply increase (includes owner-occupied and leased buildings), 2011
Totalstock(2010)
Totalstock(2010)
Totalstock(2010)
GTTower
StateNamsan
EuljiroMiraeAsset,SignatureTower,
YGTower
OneIFCLGTwinTower
1,000
1,300
1,600
1,900
2,200
2,500
2,800
3,100
3,400
3,700
CBD GBD YBD
unit:1,000sqm
Source:SavillsKorea
+11%
+2%
+14%
Planned building supply, Q4/2011District BuildingName GFA(sqm) Floors
YBD LGTwinTower(East) 78,917 34/F-B3/F
Source:SavillsKorea
Demand and Vacancy Rate
Korea’seconomicfundamentalsremainedsolidduringQ3with thenational unemployment rate remainingat3.0%inSeptember.However,aslightdeclineinfinanceand insurance sector employmentwaswitnessed inSeptemberfollowingarecordhighinAugust,reportedlyasaresultofglobaleconomicuneasiness.
Employment in the financial and insurance sectors, Jan 2000 - Sep 2011
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Numberemployed(thousands)
Source:BankofKorea
DistrictAverageRent
(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonGLA)
AverageRent(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonNLA)
YoY IncreaseRate(%)
VacancyRate(%)
CBD 91,100 159,900 1.6% 18.8%
GBD 79,400 154,900 0.6% 1.9%
YBD 61,600 130,200 3.3% 13.0%
OverallSeoul Average
81,500 152,600 1.5% 11.6%
Source:SavillsKorea
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Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
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TheSeoulprimeofficemarketexperiencedpositivenetabsorptionof116,557sqmduringQ3,dominatedbynetabsorptionof109,128sqmintheCBD,thehighestCBDfigurefornearlytenyears.WithnewsupplyintheCBDatnearrecordlevels,largetenantsaretakingadvantageofattractiveleasingincentivestorelocatemultipleofficesto a single location and to upgrade from secondaryaccommodation.TheGangnambusinessdistrict(GBD)alsoexperiencedpositivenetabsorptionof17,883sqm;however,theYBDexperiencedareductioninofficespacedemandwithnegativenetabsorptionof10,454sqm.
Despite theoverallpositivenetabsorption, recordnewsupplyoutpaceddemand,which led toan increase intheSeoulprimebuildingvacancyratefrom7.3%inQ2to11.6%inQ3.Thisrepresentsthefirsttimesince1997,whenSavills began their surveyofSeoul primeofficespace,thattheaverageSeoulvacancyratehashitdoubledigits.
Net absorption, Q1/2008-Q3/2011
13 20
244
-141
-51-85
-29 -25
10260
264
146
86117
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32008 2009 2010 2011
Source:SavillsKorea
unit:1,000sqm
TheCBD vacancy rate spiked to 18.8% inQ3 from13.5%inQ2duetothecompletionofthreenewbuildings(excludingthesethreebuildings,vacancyfellto9.7%).
Themostsignificant tenantmovementwasbyDaelimwhich took over the entire 54,919-sqm,Pramerica-ownedTwinTreesbuilding.RecentcompletionsCentre1andFerrumTowercontinuedtoenjoypositiveabsorptionwithtake-upof9,914sqmand3,828sqmrespectively.Centre1isnow65%occupiedwhileFerrumTowerhasreached95%occupancy.KyoboBuildingsawadeclineinvacancyto27%followingtake-upof5,736sqm,includingleases toSBSMediaHoldings (1,735sqm)andVisitSingapore(655sqm).TaepyungnoBuilding,SeoulCityTowerandSToweralsobenefitedfromtake-uprangingfrom1,600sqmto2,100sqm.
Vacancy rates of Seoul prime office buildings, Q3/1997–Q3/2011
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:SavillsKorea
CBD GBD YBD
TheGBD vacancy ratewas the lowest of the threesubmarkets, falling 1.0% to 1.9%.Thiswas primarilydriven by take-up of 13,637 sqmwithinGT Tower,whichhadaQ3 vacancy rate of 38%comparedwith63% inQ2.New tenants includedAllergan and J&PLaw, both of which relocated fromGBD secondarybuildings. ING Tower and Kosmo Tower benefitedfromtake-upofapproximately1,350sqmeach,whilevacancyinGangnamFinanceCenterincreasedto3%,following thedepartureofSolarWorldandHeungkukLifeInsurance.
Yeouido’sQ3 vacancy rate spiked dramatically from2.3% inQ2 to 13.0%due to the completion ofOneIFCand the relocation ofS-Oil from six floors of 63Building (approximately 16,000 sqm) to their newMapo headquarters. YuwhaSecuritiesBuilding alsosawitsvacancyrateincreasefrom0%to10%,duetothedepartureofIlsungConstruction,andbothKiwoomSecuritiesandKEBAssetdownsizing.
Consideringthereductioninforthcomingsupplyoverthenext12months,continuingstrongnetabsorption,andanumberoflargeleasesalreadysignedforrelocationsduringnextquarter,Q4vacancyissettoreturntolevelssimilartothoseseenduringthefirsthalfoftheyear.
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Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
New supply and leasing status, Q3/2011
38%
100%
99%
32%26%
49%62%
1%
68%
74%
51%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
GTTower StateTowerNamsan
SignatureTowersSeoul
YGTower OneIFC EuljiroMiraeAsset
Tower/PineAvenue
unit:sqm
Source:SavillsKorea
Vacancyarea Leasedorpre-leasedarea
Themovementofsecondarytenantstoprimebuildingsagaindominated take-up, ledbyDaelim’s relocation.Going forward,with ample new prime space still tobeabsorbed,secondarytenantsarelikelytocontinuetoexercisetheirdesiretoupgradethequalityoftheiraccommodation.
Very limitedmovement of tenants between primebuildingswaswitnessedduringQ2(3%oftotal take-up); however a number of prime tenants expandedtheirtenancieswithintheircurrentbuildings,includingUnion Steel and SK Telecom at FerrumTower,GSConstructionatSITower,andShinhanBankatGoodMorningShinhanSecuritiesBuilding. Neworganisationswereresponsiblefor17%oftake-upandincludedBarcapKoreaenteringHPBuilding,Jedaat KosmoTower, andSusungAssetmoving intoSKSecuritiesYeouidoBuilding.
Take-up, Q3/2011Enlargementofexistingtenancy
16%
Neworganisation17%
Primetoprime3%
Daelim(secondarytoprime)55%
Secondarytoprime9%
Source:SavillsKorea
Seoul vacancies by total area, Q4/2010 - Q3/2011
30% 32%19% 10%
12% 14%15%
3%
6%6%
7%11%
19%
52%
47% 40%
24%
15%
16%
21%
050100150200250300350400450500550600650
Q4/2010 Q1/2011 Q2/2011 Q3/2011Source:SavillsKorea
EuljiroMiraeAssetTower/PineAvenue SignatureTowerOneIFC OthersStateNamsan KyoboTwinTree Center1
unit:1,000sqm
Vacantspacecontinuestobefocusedinseveralneworrecentlycompletedbuildings,with76%ofthemarket’sQ3vacancylocatedinjustsixbuildings.Asalreadynoted,withsubstantialleasessignedforQ4relocationstotwoof thesebuildings–One IFCandEuljiroMiraeAssetTower–thissituationissettoimprovesignificantlybeforetheendoftheyear.
Major tenant relocations, Q3/2011
PreviousBuilding CurrentBuilding
Tenant District Building Name
Lease Area
(sq m)District Building Name
Lease Area
(sq m)
Daelim
CBDYBD
Daelim N/ACBD
TwinTree
54,919YBD AsiaOne 12,459
HanwhaConstruction
NewTFT CBD Centre1 5,220
GSConstruction
Expansion GBD GFC 2,323
Allergan GBDMetroBuilding
1,421 GBDGT
Tower2,225
J&PLaw GBDIlkwangBuilding
N/A GBDGT
Tower1,966
StateStreetBank
CBD SFC 992 CBD Center1 1,891
Source:SavillsKorea
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Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
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Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
Rent
Thirdquarterfacerentsgrewjust0.2%fromthepreviousquarterand1.5%fromthesameperiodlastyear.Fourbuildingsraisedtheirrents–twobuildingsintheGBDandoneeachintheYBDandtheCBD.Rentalincreasesforthesefourbuildingsrangedfrom2.9%to6.0%.Ofparticularnote,eachofthesebuildingshadavacancyrateoflessthan5%.NobuildingsloweredtheiraskingrentduringQ3.
Increases and decreases of Seoul prime buildings’ face rents, Q1/2008 - Q3/2011
50
1519
12
26
3 6 6
21
11 6 1
28
7 4
(1) (1) (1) (1) (4) (3) (1) (1) (2) (2) (7)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32008 2009 2010 2011
unit:1,000sqm
Source:SavillsKorea
Rentincrease-no.ofbuildings(LHS) Rentdecrease-no.ofbuildings(LHS)AverageMarketYoYRentalGrowth(RHS)
Face-rent trends in Seoul, Q3/2011
DistrictFaceRent
(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonNLA)
FaceRent(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonNLA)
RentalIncreasefromQ3/2010
CBD 91,000 159,900 1.6%
GBD 79,300 154,800 0.6%
YBD 61,600 130,100 3.3%
Seoul 81,500 152,600 1.5%
Source:SavillsKorea
Seoul prime office building face rents, Q3/1997 - Q3/2011
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q1/2001=100
Source:SavillsKorea
CBD GBD YBD
Outlook
Withaveragefacerentalgrowthfailingtomatchinflation,whichdeclinedto4.3%inSeptemberfollowingathree-yearhighof5.3%inAugust,effectiverentalgrowthwillcontinuetobeconstrainedovertheremainderof2011andinto2012.Attractivelandlordincentivesforvacantspace,primarilylocatedinnewlyconstructedbuildings,will continue to put pressure on face rental levels,particularlywithintheCBDandYBD,whicharethemostaffecteddistrictsbythecurrentsupplycycle.
Transactions and Investment Market
Trends in Seoul office cap rates, Q1/2005-Q4/2011E
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source:SavillsKorea
Spread Caprate Five-yearTreasuryBond
AsanticipatedattheendofQ2,anumberofdealshavecometofruitionduringQ3,withmarketactivityfocusingoncorepropertiesintheGBDandCBD.Thetotaldealvolume forQ3ofKRW761billion representeda 12%increaseoverthesameperiodlastyearandtheyear-to-datevolumeofKRW2.74trillionisalready14%higherthanthetotal2010salesvolume.
Transaction Volume in the Seoul Office Building Market, Q1/2001 - Q4/2011E
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:SavillsKorea
Unit:1,000KRWbillionsQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
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ThemostactivemarketplayerduringthequarterwasSamsung AMCwhich acquired a portfolio of threeassets fromRREEF – Prime Tower, whichRREEFacquired fromGIC inmid-2010, Samsung FinancePlazalocatedintheGBD,and66%ofthestrata-titledHSBCBuilding.Thetotalvalueoftheportfolio(KRW396billion)accountedforoverhalfofthetransactionvolumeduringthequarter.
PSAMCpurchasedtwoofficebuildingslocatedonthewestern fringeof theCBD fromcivilengineeringandconstruction firm, Limkwang forKRW257billion.Thenewownerisexpectedtobenefitfromarentalupturn.StartingBuildingintheGBDalsofoundanewowner,while the only non-core property to sellwasNeowizHQinBundang.
Anumberofsecondaryofficetransactionsareforecastfor Q4. However, themarket appears to be finelybalanced at themoment, with potential for globaleconomic concerns to negatively impact investorsentimentandtransactionvolume.
Major transactions in Q3/2011
DistrictBuildingName
Seller PurchaserAreaof
Transaction(sqm)
TransactionPrice(KRW
billion)
CBDLimkwangHQ
andNewBuilding
LimkwangPSKORIFREITNo.2
63,970 257.0
CBD Prime RREEFSamsungREITNo.3
33,023 163.8
GBDSamsung
FinancePlazaRREEF
SamsungREITNo.3
24,179 126.5
CBD HSBC RREEFSamsungREITNo.3
24,812 106.0
BBD NeowizHQNeowiz(80%)
NeowizGames
12,752 80.8
GBD Starting Individual Individual 3,312 27.0
Source:SavillsKorea
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Offices
Forfurtherinformation,pleasecontact:
ThisdocumentispreparedbySavillsforinformationonly.Whilstreasonablecarehasbeenexercisedinpreparingthisdocument,it issubjecttochangeandtheseparticularsdonotconstitute,norconstitutepartof,anofferorcontract;interestedpartiesshouldnotrelyonthestatementsorrepresentationsoffactbutmustsatisfythemselvesbyinspectionorotherwiseastotheaccuracy.Nopersonintheemploymentoftheagentortheagent'sprincipalhasanyauthoritytomakeanyrepresentationsorwarrantieswhatsoeverinrelationtotheseparticularsandSavillscannotbeheldresponsibleforanyliabilitywhatsoeverorforanylosshowsoeverarisingfromorinrelianceuponthewholeoranypartofthecontentsofthisdocument.Thispublicationmaynotbereproducedinanyformorinanymanner,inpartorasawholewithoutwrittenpermissionofthepublisher,Savills. © Savills (Hong Kong) Limited. 2011.
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
koreaMoonduck KimChiefExecutiveOfficer,[email protected]
leasing services, korea Grace KoDirector,[email protected]
Seunghan LeeDirector,Leasing&Marketing,[email protected]
Sue LeeDirector,[email protected]
research & consulting, koreaJoAnn [email protected]
investment advisory, koreaKookhee [email protected]
asset management, koreaYoungtaek [email protected]
research & consultancy, asia pacificSimon [email protected]
addressSavills Korea Co., Ltd11/FSeoulFinanceCenter84Taepyungro-1-ga,Chung-gu,Seoul,Korea100-768T:+82221244114F:+82221244188
corporate websitewww.savills.co.kr
Appendix 1: Overview of the Seoul Office Market and Savills Korea Office Survey
Closeto75%oflargeofficebuildings(30,000sqmormore)inSeoulareconcentratedinthreemajorbusinessdistricts-CBD36.5%,GBD24.3%andYBD13.2%.TheCBDisthelargestofthesedistrictsandishometomajorgovernmentandmultinationalinstitutions.TheGBDalsohousesmanymultinationalcompaniesandisaninformationtechnologycentre,whiletheYBD,the"WallStreet"ofSouthKorea,includestheheadquartersofmajorsecuritiesfirmsandbroadcastingcompanies
Summary of Surveyed Buildings, September 2011CBD GBD YBD Total
A
Numberofbuildings 19 14 6 39
AverageGFA(sqm) 84,929 96,231 90,511 89,845
Averageyearofcompletion 2000 1999 1997 1999
B
Numberofbuildings 21 17 10 48
AverageGFA(sqm) 49,274 39,153 44,115 44,614
Averageyearofcompletion 1997 1998 1995 1997
Totalnumberofbuildings 40 31 16 87
Totalarea(sqm) 2,648,391 2,012,831 984,219 5,645,441
TheSavillsKoreaQuarterlyOfficeSurveyisthelongestrunningsurveyofprimeofficestockinSeoul.Establishedin1997,itcurrentlycomprises89ofthe116buildingsinSeoulclassifiedas"prime"buildings.
Primebuildings:BuildingswithaGFAgreaterthan30,000sqmwithgoodaccessibilityandfacilities,ahighleveloffinish,andcreditworthybluechiptenants.
Monthlyrent:Surveyedrentsare"facerents",theaskingrentsreportedbylandlordsformid-levelfloors.TheserentsarestandardisedbySavillsKoreatoaccountforvariationsinthesecuritydepositsrequiredbydifferentlandlordstoproduceaneffectiverentalfigureforNLA.
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