Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector...

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International Communications Market Report 2012 13 December 2012 Ofcom analyst briefing 0

Transcript of Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector...

Page 1: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

International Communications Market Report 2012

13 December 2012

Ofcom analyst briefing

0

Page 2: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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Agenda Introduction to the ICMR and Market Overview James Thickett, Director of Research and Market Intelligence

Trends in the television and audio-visual industries Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst

Trends in telecoms Chris Adams, Head of Market Intelligence, Telecoms

Internet and web-based content Andrew Jackson, Senior Convergence Analyst

Comparative international pricing Nicholas Collins, Senior Fixed Telecoms Analyst

Page 3: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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Introduction and Market overview

James Thickett, Director of Research

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One of three Communications Markets Reports

International Communications Market Report 2012

Research Document

Publication date: 13 December 2012

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Methodology Combination of industry data (2011) and consumer research data (September 2012) • Industry data (17 countries)

- Telecoms and media industry data: IDATE - Other third-party sources - Pricing: Teligen

• Online consumer research (9 countries, >=1000 consumers in each country) to examine the take-up

and use of communications services. It focused on: - The change in levels of use over the last two years - Preferred methods of communicating - Consumption of Olympic Games content - Consumption of news online - The use of connected devices - Use of, and attitudes towards, postal services

Third-party sources of data: Analysys Mason, comScore, IMRG, Eurostat, Eurodata TV Worldwide, The European Commission, Forrester Research, IDATE, Kantar Media, Mediamétrie, The Nielsen Company, PricewaterhouseCoopers, The Reuters Institute, Teligen, US Census Bureau, the World Advertising Research Centre and Zenith Optimedia.

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Communications revenues continue to rise Global communications revenue, 2007-2011

Source: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers; UPU, IDATE and industry data. Postal revenues are for our 17 comparator countries only. CAGRs 2007-2011: Radio -1.2%; Post -0.9%; Television +5.2%; Telecoms +2.9%.

Revenue (£bn)

836 871 885 905 936

211 221 221 242 258 102 103 100 99 98 31 30 28 29 30

£1,180bn £1,226bn £1,234bn £1,275bn £1,322bn

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Radio

Post

Television

Telecoms

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UK ranked seventh in terms of revenue Communications revenues, 2011

71

90

186

12

31

100

14

39

1

3

12

£86

£138

£331

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

CHN

JPN

USA

Revenue (£bn)

21

24

36

31

27

36

4

8

12

10

11

12

4

8

7

7

5

1

1

3

2

1

0

£31

£36

£58

£49

£47

£54

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CAN

ITA

GER

FRA

UK

BRA Telecoms

Television

Post

Radio

Revenue (£bn)

Source: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers; UPU, IDATE and industry data.

Page 8: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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Australia highest on a per capita basis Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011

53

134 180

145 471 499

534 411

790 708

629 598

389 437

476 436

63 62

182 198 155

102 244

244 128

320 127

142 155

180

99 136

125

71 108

108 123

96 99

107

26 38

16 10

30 22

34 37

8 37

22 19

£64 £14

£178 £270

£243 £778

£871 £830

£558 £1,135

£1,083 £899

£1,078 £593

£712 £753

£741

£0 £200 £400 £600 £800 £1,000 £1,200 £1,400

CHN IND

RUS BRA POL IRL

SWE NED ESP AUS JPN CAN USA

ITA GER FRA

UK

Telecoms

Television

Post

Radio

Source: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers; UPU, IDATE and industry data.

Page 9: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

58

19

45

15

50

10

55

23

44

20

30

12

64

24

56

24

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Smartphone Tablet computer

Perc

enta

ge o

f res

pond

ents

UK France Germany Italy USA Japan Spain Australia

Source: Ofcom consumer research

8

UK smartphone take-up among the highest

Ownership and personal use of smartphones and tablets

8

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Trends in the television and audio-visual industries

Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst

Page 11: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Global TV industry revenues increased YoY

10

Source: Ofcom / PWC

£95bn £103bn £111bn £121bn £133bn

£19bn £19bn £19bn £20bn £20bn

£98bn £98bn £91bn £102bn £105bn

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Advertising

Public funds

Subscriptions

£211bn £221bn

1.8%

1.4%

9.0%

CAGR (4yr)£258bn£242bn£221bn

YOY

3.5%

-0.2%

10.5%

5.2%6.7%

Pro

porti

on o

f rev

enue

s

TV industry revenues, by source

Page 12: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

BRICs closed gap on Japan / Australia

11

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

£66 £70£76

£83 £86 £85£94

£100

£45 £48 £50 £53 £54 £53 £57 £58

£33 £34 £34 £35 £35 £33 £35 £36

£14 £16 £18 £20 £23 £25 £30£34

£0bn£10bn£20bn£30bn£40bn£50bn£60bn£70bn£80bn£90bn

£100bn£110bn

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA

Europe / Canada

Japan / Australia

BRIC

3.0%

2.0%

6.5%

1.4%

2.9%

5.7%

14.0% 13.8%

Total revenues (£bn)£158bn £168bn £178bn £191bn £197bn £197bn

CAGR (5 yr)YOY

Growth (%)

5.8% 5.1%£216bn £228bn

TV industry revenues among comparator countries

Page 13: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

UK remained on a par with Germany as largest TV market in Europe

12

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

£10.4£10.8 £10.9 £11.0 £11.0 £10.9

£11.2£11.6

£9.3£9.8 £9.8

£10.3 £10.4 £10.4£11.0

£11.3

£7.9 £8.0 £8.2

£9.1 £8.9 £9.2

£9.9 £10.2

£6.2£6.8

£7.1£7.5

£7.9 £7.7£8.0 £7.8

£3.8 £4.1£4.8 £5.0 £5.0

£4.5£5.0 £4.8

£3.2 £3.3 £3.6 £3.7 £3.7 £4.0 £4.1 £4.4

£2.0 £2.1 £2.1 £2.3 £2.4 £2.4 £2.5 £2.6

£0.8 £1.4 £1.5 £1.7 £2.0 £2.0 £2.2 £2.4£1.2 £1.3 £1.4 £1.4 £1.5 £1.5 £1.5 £1.8

£0.5 £0.6 £0.7 £0.8 £0.9 £0.8 £0.9 £0.9£0bn

£2bn

£4bn

£6bn

£8bn

£10bn

£12bn

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GER

UK

FRA

ITA

ESP

CAN

NED

POL

SWE

IRE

3.1%

2.6%

2.7%

-2.7%

5.4%

10.4%

5.1%

5.7%

1.6%

-4.9%

YOY CAGR (5 yr)Growth (%)

£45bn £48bn £50bn £53bn £54bn £53bn

Total revenues (£bn)

4.0%

4.4%

1.2%

2.9%

4.6%

1.7%

-0.1%

4.2%

4.6%

9.8%

£57bn £58bn

TV industry revenues among European countries and Canada

Page 14: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

All UK TV homes are now digital

13

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

99% 97%

66%

93% 89% 87%77%

83%

100%

77%67%

90%

62%69%

40% 40% 43%

1% 3%

34%

7% 11% 13%23%

17%

0%

23%33%

10%

38%31%

60% 60% 57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Analogue

Digital

Proportion of TV homes (%)

+1 +3 +4 +1 +2 +9 +4 +11 +2 +9 +4 +8 +7 +10 +9 +9 +9

Year-on-year change (pp)

Take-up of digital and analogue television, 2011

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Appetite for pay TV varies by country

14

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

55%62% 64%

35%

89% 93%

63%

34%27%

92%

76% 78%

23%

64%

94%

57%

45%38% 36%

65%

11% 7%

37%

66%73%

1%8%

24% 22%

77%

36%

6%

43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

UK FRA GER ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE IRE POL BRA RUS IND CHI

Free TV

Pay TV

Proportion of TV households (%)

+3 +7 +8 -12 +1 +3 +5 +8 +3 +2 -2 -1 +2 +32 +14 +16 +8YOY change in pay TV homes (%)

Take-up of pay and free-to-air television, end 2011

Page 16: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

The UK has one of the highest take-up rates for HDTV

Source: Ofcom consumer research

15

41%

18%

28% 28%

49%

31%

46%

30%35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP CHN

HDTV service

Take-up (%)

Take-up of high definition TV service

Page 17: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Ownership of connected TVs is gathering momentum...

Source: Ofcom consumer research

16

39%

18%21%

19%

32%

24%

29%

22%

15% 15%

10% 9% 10%

5%

10%12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP

DVR Connected or smart TV

Take-up (%)

Take-up of digital video recorders and connected TVs

Page 18: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

...whilst widening broadband access is influencing how content is viewed

Source: Ofcom consumer research

17

42%

31%

19%

26%31%

11%

27%

34%

23%

13%9%

12%17%

3%

12%16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP

Ever Weekly

Proportion of respondents that access online TV (%)

Accessing TV content over the internet

Page 19: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

However linear TV continues to dominate

Source: Médiamétrie, Eurodata TV Worldwide

18

242227 225

253

293

240

189

239

191162

205

242225 220

119

163

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

UK FRA GER ITA USA CAN AUS ESP NED SWE IRL POL BRA RUS IND CHN

Change in minutes of viewing per person per day, 2010 - 20110.0% 7.1% 0.9% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 0.5% 2.1% 0.0% -2.4% 4.6% -1.2% 1.4% -2.7% 0.0% 3.2%

Min

utes

per

per

son

per d

ay

2011 average214 mins

Daily TV viewing per head, 2010 - 2011

Page 20: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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Internet and web-based content

Andrew Jackson, Senior Convergence Analyst

Page 21: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Mobile internet advertising spend almost doubles in the UK and the US

20

Mobile internet advertising expenditure per head 2007-12

£3.12

£0.75 £0.93

£0.41

£3.18

£1.26

£0.41 £0.30

£1.54

£0.29 £0.03 £0.09 £0.21

£0.00

£0.50

£1.00

£1.50

£2.00

£2.50

£3.00

£3.50

UK FRA GER ITA USA CAN AUS ESP SWE POL BRA RUS CHN

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GBP/head GBP/head

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

JPN

£7.99

16% YoY Growth 10/11

135% 43% 69% 31% 146% 103% 16% 27% 40% 83% 49% 86% 113%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2012-2016

Page 22: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Wired internet advertising spend is highest in the UK at £76 per head

21

Total wired internet advertising expenditure, per head 2007-12

£76

£29

£43

£17

£63

£51 £58

£73

£17

£54

£63

£25

£11 £3 £6 £4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

UK FRA GER ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE IRL POL BRA RUS CHN

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Internet advertising spend per head (GBP)

YoY Growth 10/11

16% 11% 12% 15% 21% 22% 6% 7% 12% 8% 13% 22% 25% 15% 56% 48%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2012-2016

Page 23: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Within Europe, UK internet users are using connected devices the most…

22

Proportion of website traffic using mobile, tablet, and other connected devices (%)

Source: comScore Device Essentials, June 2012

16.4

5.0 7.0

5.6

9.7 9.0 9.2

2.2

10.4 11.5

0

10

20

UK FRA GER ITA ESP NED SWE POL RUS IRE

Page 24: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

… and time spent online on a laptop or desktop computer has declined as a result

23

Average number of minutes spent online on a laptop or desktop computer per week

307

279

294

188

323

0

311

237

344

291 32

9

200

357

291 34

5

255 33

3

297

302

208

323

292

394

233

0

100

200

300

400

500

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP

2010 2011 2012 Minutes online per week

Source: Nielsen, August 2012

2012 YoY Change -3.1% +2.2% -8.2% +4.1% -9.4% +0.2% +14.1% -8.5%

Page 25: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Google leads search in all countries except Japan

24

Active reach of search engine brands, by country

85 87 82

87 78

61

87 90

48

34

22

40

62

85

50 44

61 61

36 45

57

36

67 67

0

20

40

60

80

100

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP

Active Reach (%) Google Yahoo! MSN/WindowsLive/Bing

Source: Nielsen, August 2012

Page 26: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Facebook is the largest international social network across our comparator nations

25

67 68 59

71 69

28

68 68

17 9 5 8

15 23

13 18

9 9 8 8 10 14 12

0

20

40

60

80

UK FRA GER ITA USA JPN AUS ESP

Facebook Twitter Google +

Source: Nielsen, August 2012, home and work panel, including applications Note: Data unavailable for Google+ in Japan.

Active reach of Facebook, Twitter and Google+ on laptop and desktop computers

Active reach (%)

NA

Page 27: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

YouTube leads online video websites despite some domestic competition

4% 6%

63% 5% 5%

60% 11%

18% 51%

5% 10%

56% 5% 5%

57% 7%

9% 50%

13% 20%

58% 6%

15% 55%

0% 25% 50% 75%

Rojadirecta

YouTube

Dailymotion

FC2 Videos

YouTube

Netflix

Rai TV

YouTube

MyVideo

WAT

YouTube

BBC iPlayer

ES

P

AU

S

JPN

U

SA

IT

A

GE

R

FRA

U

K

Active reach (%)

26

Top three online video websites among laptop and desktop users

Source: Nielsen, August 2012, home and work panel, applications included

Page 28: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

£76

£66

£49

£5

£17

£0

£10

£20

£30

£40

£50

£60

£70

£80

POL BRA RUS IND CHN

UK internet users spent more than £1000 online in 2011

27

Value of B2C e-commerce per head 2007-11

Source: IMRG B2C Global e-Commerce Overview 2011 Update 01, June 2011; IMRG B2C Global e-Commerce Overview 2012, May 2012

Value per head (£)

£1,083

£497 £377

£115

£620

£350

£527

£842

£169

£462

£747 £683

£0

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

UK FRA GER ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE IRL

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

YoY Growth 14% 21% 18% 19% 9% 10% 16% 26% 24% 9% 12% 24% 29% 19% 33% 32% 129%

Page 29: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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Trends in telecoms

Chris Adams, Head of Market Intelligence, Telecoms

Page 30: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

29

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

211 206 197 179 166 154

292 318 333 342 357 375

48 57 63 70 75 81 551

580 593 591 598 610

0

200

400

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Revenue (£bn)

Total

Fixed broadband

Mobile

Fixed voice

Total retail telecoms service revenues increased

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UK had third highest telecoms service retail revenues in Europe

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

11 9 11 6

16 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1

14 15 16

18

20

20 13

13 12 12

4 5 2 2 1 1 3 4

2 3 3 8

3 5

3 4

2 3

1 2 1 1 0 0

0 1

27 27 29 31

39 36

25 24 20 19

8 9 4 5

2 2 6 6

0

10

20

30

40

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

2006

2011

Fixed broadband Mobile Fixed voice

UK FRA GER ITA ESP NED SWE IRL POL

Revenue (£bn)

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31

154 103

198 108

927 72

124 89

68

30 10

28 234

116 113

191 82

512 0

83 44

64 21 18

7 15

181 158 173

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL BRA RUS CHN

Bn mins

2006 2011 Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

Only France saw increasing fixed-line voice volumes in 2011

Page 33: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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1

2

1

1

1

2

4

1

0

5

3

0

0

5

9

4

9

14

0

16

12

6

21

12

5

5

0 5 10 15 20 25

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

% share

2006 2011 Source: IDATE

VoIP share of fixed revenues increased

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5 year percentage point change 59

58

47

64

65

69

67

61

56

61

73

39

52

48

48

0

61

55

51

50

50

58

0 20 40 60 80

UK

FRA

GER

ITA

JPN

AUS

ESP

NED

SWE

IRL

POL

Market share (per cent)

2006 2011

-20

-5

1

-15

n/a

-8

-12

-10

-6

-11

-15

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

UK saw the largest fall in incumbent’s share of fixed voice volumes: 2006 to 2011

Page 35: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

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2 3 3

3 16

2 12

1 2

1 1

0 0

3 8

5 4

30 4

18 2

3 2

1 0 1

0 10 20 30

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

£bn

2006 2011

5 year CAGR 6.3%

19.5%

9.8%

9.0%

12.9%

10.3%

8.9%

13.8%

7.5%

9.3%

3.0%

14.2%

6.1%

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

Fixed broadband revenues grew…

Page 36: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

35

19

22

17

21

20

23

31

17

25

33

28

12

19

27

55

32

36

37

37

48

34

40

50

40

25

37

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

% share

2006 2011 Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

..and is increasing % of total fixed revenues

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36

64

82

73

88

49

61

69

75

82

63

76

69

78

68

86

68

80

49

52

74

74

77

78

74

85

57

0 20 40 60 80 100

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

% share

2006 2011 Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

UK saw an increase in retail connection share for three largest fixed broadband providers

Page 38: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

37

100

99

95

99

97

100

99

97

72

65

39

61

11

61

100

51

36

37

0 20 40 60 80 100

UK

FRA

GER

ITA

ESP

NED

SWE

IRL

POL

Household coverage (per cent)

Fixed broadband Superfast broadband Source: European Commission / Ofcom

UK no longer lagging on superfast availability

Page 39: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

38

25 6

36 13

49 30

94 2

56 68

70 4

8

46 34

48 0

72 70

58 29

40 91

40 60

25

0 20 40 60 80 100

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN JPN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

FTTx Cable

Source: Analysys Mason, FTTX rollout and CAPEX in developed economies, forecasts 2012-2017 / Ofcom

Availability of FTTx and cable networks, end 2011

Japan still leading on availability of FTTx

Page 40: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

UK leads on >8Mbit/s connections

39

1 15

23 12

58 15

10 19

3 2

11 26

27 31

46 69

10 27

28 56

36 38

61 50

67 51

23 17

25 53

45 17

39 39

29 20

5 3

8 3

7 5

17 7

22 21

0 4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UK FRA GER

ITA USA CAN AUS ESP NED SWE

IRL POL

% share

2Mbit/s or less >2Mbit/s up to and including 8Mbit/s

>8Mbit/s up to and excluding 30Mbit/s 30Mbit/s or higher Source: Ofcom / IDATE

Proportion of fixed broadband connections by headline speed

Page 41: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

40

5 year CAGR

7.0% 2.4%

13.4% 11.8%

5.0% 8.9% 3.7%

14.2% 4.1% 3.5%

12.9% 9.3%

19.4% 38.3% 29.5% 41.1% 22.7%

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

358 310

64 11

23 25

71 86

145 141

136 107 106

124

277 98

61 26

7 13

21 58

44 121

92

78 57

94 88

0 100 200 300 400

CHN IND

RUS BRA POL IRL

SWE NED ESP AUS JPN CAN USA

ITA GER FRA

UK

2006 2011

Mobile volume growth exceeded fixed but UK and Japan saw declines in 2011

Bn mins

Page 42: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

41

5 year CAGR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

JPN

CAN

AUS

USA

FRA

NED

ESP

UK

£ per month

-6.5%

0.4%

0.5%

-0.9%

-3.4%

-0.4%

-4.8%

-1.9%

Average monthly revenue per mobile connection

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom

Most countries experienced downward pressure on average monthly mobile revenue

Page 43: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Texting remains popular: UK one of leaders sending 200 SMS messages per month in 2011

42

0

200

400

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA

IRL

UK

CAN

FRA

SWE

Number of SMS sent per person per month

Source: IDATE / industry data / Ofcom.

Page 44: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

43

0

100

200

300

400

500

2009 2010 2011

UK

JPN

CAN

FRA

USA

AUS

MB per month per connection

Source: Cisco Systems’ Visual Networking Index

Mobile data traffic highest in the UK

Page 45: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

44

Comparative international pricing

Nicholas Collins, Senior Fixed Telecoms Analyst

Page 46: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

45

Our international report focuses on comparative pricing

International Communications Market Report • Compares the price of services in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the US

• Based on a pricing model provided by Teligen and data collated in July 2012

Consumer Experience Report • Covers trends in UK fixed, mobile and television pricing • Uses a wide range of sources including the Teligen pricing model, tariff analysis and data submitted to Ofcom by communications providers

Due to be published in January 2013

Page 47: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Basket Household type Fixed voice

Mobile voice SMS Fixed line

broadband Mobile

broadband Television

1 Basic needs An elderly couple with basic needs Low Low n/a n/a n/a Basic

2 Late adopters Two adults with basic needs and fixed broadband

Medium Low Low Low n/a Basic

3 Mobile-only A single occupant mobile ‘power user’ n/a High High n/a High Pay-TV

4 Connected family

A family of two parents and two teenage children with multiple needs

High Medium High Medium n/a Pay-TV with PVR

5 Sophisticated couple

An affluent two person household Low High Medium High use

superfast Medium

HD premium

pay-TV with PVR

46

Source: Ofcom

Summary of households and baskets used in the analysis

Benchmarking analysis across five baskets

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47

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Standalone ‘weighted average’ fixed-line voice pricing

Monthly cost (£)

18 19 24 23 27 27 26 29 26 28 24 25 21 20

32 32 15 36 33 40 32 32 33 33

22 21

39 38

16

38 38 48

34 34 38 37 22 23

27 25

11

30 30

37

31 31 29 29

0

50

100

150

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

Basket 5

Basket 4

Basket 2

Basket 1

UK GER FRA ESP ITA USA

UK is the cheapest on fixed-line voice

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48

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Standalone ‘weighted average’ mobile pricing Monthly cost (£)

9 9

13 12

12 10

15 15

16 15

26 27

10 10

15 12

18 14

18 15

18 18

30 31

10 10

16 11

26 15

12 15

20 21

17 32

11 10

16 11

28 18

12 16

21 21

18 33

17 16

24 17

56 37

41 36

41 35

46 43

19 18

27 20

50 37

23 31

38 41

53 49

35 43

59 43

82 68

62 53

86 80

95 96

40 53

78 56

115 81

81 64

118 105

118 114

54 55

85 68

145 142

89 73

123 109

103 99

0 200 400 600 2011 2012

2011 2012

2011 2012

2011 2012

2011 2012

2011 2012

Connection 1

Connection 2

Connection 3

Connection 4

Connection 5

Connection 6

Connection 7

Connection 8

Connection 9

UK

GER

FRA

ESP

ITA

USA

Overall weighted average mobile prices Were up by 10% in 2012

Page 50: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

49

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Standalone ‘weighted average’ fixed-line broadband pricing Monthly cost (£)

17 16 18 20 29 31 33 25 47 44 30 28

19 15 18 20 31 35 46

30

48 44 40 32 24 18

34 31 19 21

46

30

62 48

105

64

0

50

100

150

200

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

Basket 5

Basket 4

Basket 2

UK GER FRA ESP ITA USA

Standalone fixed broadband prices fell in 2012

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50

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Standalone ‘best offer’ mobile broadband pricing

Monthly cost (£)

16 15 28 19 24 23

10 10 22 38 50 41 15 15

19 17

24 23

10 9

22

38 41

31

7 6

12 10

15 14

5 8

16

21 22

22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

1GB per month

3GB per month (Basket 5)

5GB per month (Basket 3)

UK GER FRA ESP ITA USA

UK close behind Italy on mobile broadband pricing

Page 52: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

51

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Standalone ‘best offer’ TV pricing

Monthly cost (£)

14 11 13 20 21 21 14 24 19 21 24 24

62 61 38

42 34 34 45 47 62 65 69 70

12 12

10 10 18 18 10

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

Licence fee

HD premium pay-TV with recorder

Basic pay-TV

UK GER FRA ESP ITA USA

UK cheapest for basic pay-TV; HD sport and movies attracts a relative premium

Page 53: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

52

Source: Ofcom using data supplied by Teligen

Change in the standalone pricing of basket components

UK FRA GER ITA ESP USA

Fixed voice -0.7% -2.1% 90.6% 22.4% 1.9% -1.1%

Mobile 10.4% -25.2% -20.5% -9.7% -7.6% 3.5%

Fixed broadband -16.7% 4.3% 10.4% -30.5% -13.5% -29.0%

Mobile broadband -4.2% -23.4% -5.3% -3.7% 75.0% -20.4%

TV -5.6% -1.3% 13.9% 12.3% 5.3% 0.3%

Pricing trends generally remain negative across the sector

Page 54: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

UK has lowest ‘weighted average’ across all five household types...

53

‘Weighted average’ single service basket prices Monthly cost (£)

50

57

69

70

57 80

68 85 11

6 10

7 11

3 12

4

100 12

2 21

2 12

8 168

169

146 17

8 26

2 24

7 268 31

4

200

207 24

4 22

9 32

8 373

0

100

200

300

400

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

Fixed voice Mobile Fixed broadband Mobile broadband Pay TV TV licence TV hardware

Basic needs Late adopters Mobile power user Connected Family Sophisticated couple

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Page 55: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

45

54

62

57

47 62

53 66

71

65

73 87

84 10

8 18

5 10

2 16

3 14

6

112

94

186

120

187 22

4

164

168 19

7 17

1 30

0 31

2

0

100

200

300

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

UK

FR

A

GE

R

ITA

E

SP

U

SA

Fixed voice, broadband, pay-TV and mobile access Fixed voice, broadband & pay-TV access Fixed voice, broadband & mobile access Fixed voice & broadband access Fixed voice Mobile Fixed broadband Mobile broadband Pay TV TV licence TV hardware

54

‘Best-offer’, including multi-play, basket prices Monthly cost (£)

Basic needs Late adopters Mobile power user Connected Family Sophisticated couple

..and the lowest possible prices for four of the five household types

Source: Ofcom, using data supplied by Teligen

Page 56: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

The UK price differential with other countries is narrowing

55

Source: Ofcom / Teligen

Percentage that the next cheapest country is more expensive than the UK for the ‘weighted average’ basket prices

Difference (per cent)

21.9

30.3

41.1

51.9

27.3

12.8

25.7 21.9 22.0

3.4 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Basic needs Late adopters Mobile power user Connected Family Sophisticated couple

2011

2012

Page 57: Ofcom analyst briefing€¦ · 7 . Australia highest on a per capita basis . Communications sector revenues per capita, 2011 . 53 . 134 . 180 145 471 . 499 . 534 . 411 . 790 . 708

Questions

56