of the Renewable Energy at national level: the REPAP2020 ... · • 4 Member States intend to...

Implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive at national level:

the REPAP2020 Project

Lucie Tesnière

Policy Advisor

European Renewable Energy Council

REPAP workshop

Cyprus, 23rd of April 2010

EREC – European Renewable Energy CouncilUmbrella organisation of the EU renewable energy industry:

AEBIOM

European Biomass Association

EGEC

European Geothermal Energy Council

EPIA

European Photovoltaic Industry Association

ESHA

European Small Hydropower Association

ESTIF

European Solar Thermal Industry Federation

EUBIA

European Biomass Industry Association

EWEA

European Wind Energy Association

EUREC

Agency

European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency

EU‐OEA

European Ocean Energy Association

EREF

European Renewable Energy Federation

ESTELA

European Solar Thermal Electricity Association

The 20‐20‐20 EU policy by 2020

Greenhouse gas levels

Energy consumption

Renewables in energy mix

-20% -20%100%

+20%

8,5%

The RES Directive

• Establishes a framework for for the promotion of renewable energy sources in the EU up to 2020.

• sets mandatory national targets for renewable energy sources in final energy consumption and in the transport sector.

• It requires the streamlining of administrative procedures, more information and training on RES and access to the

electricity grid for energy from renewable sources.

National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs)

• NREAPs detail the measures taken by Member States to meet their 2020 targets.

• Member States will set sectoral targets in the NREAPs for the electricity , heating & cooling and

transport sectors.

Template for NREAPs

• The Commission issued a compulsory list of questions for Member States to answer in their National Renewable Energy

Action Plans (NREAP):

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/action_plan_template_en.htm

• Objectives : – Guide Member States in the drafting of the NREAPs

– Ensure completeness

– Ensure comparability with each other and with future reports

– Make follow up easier

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/action_plan_template_en.htm

1.

Summary of national renewable energy policy

2.

Expected final energy consumption

3.

Targets and trajectories (national and sectoral)

4.

Measures for achieving the targets

5.

Assessments

The content of the NREAPs

Key Dates for Implementation

• December 2009: Member States release their “forecast documents”

• 30 June 2010: Member States notify the Commission of their national action plans

• December 2010: Member States must have transposed into national legislation the RES Directive.

Forecast documents• The 27 Member States have sent their forecast documents to the

European Commission.

• 8 Member States intend to export in 2020 e.g. Sweden, Germany, Slovakia, Spain, Estonia.

• 13 Member States intend to reach their 2020 target by domestic means e.g. Lithuania, France, Cyprus, Latvia, The Netherlands, The Czech

Republic, Slovenia.

• 4 Member States intend to import (Italy, Belgium, Malta and Luxemburg) in 2020. 2 with current policies would import in 2020, but with new

policies in place could export (Denmark, Bulgaria).

• The net overall surplus amount to about 0,3 mtoe.

Enforcement

• Not through a penalty regime like ETS, but through infringement proceedings, from 2010 for

– failure to produce an credible national action plan– failure to implement all aspects of the Directive

– significant deviation from plan or trajectory

– valid complaints from any EU citizens regarding incorrect implementation or enforcement by Member States

Transparency Platform http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/forecast_documents_en.htm

• The Commission established an online public transparency platform which will feature:

– The 27 National Action Plans– offers to cooperate on statistical transfers or joint

projects

– Commission’s reports under this Directive

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/forecast_documents_en.htm

REPAP 2020

Objective:

Facilitate the process of implementation of the RES Directive on

a national level

2 phases:

before notification of National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) to the European Commission

after notification of National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) to the European Commission

EU partners: EREC (coordinator)EUFORES

National Association partners:APER, ItalyAPREN, PortugalBEE, GermanyEDORA, BelgiumPIGEO, PolandREA, UKSERO, SwedenSER, France

Scientific partners:FraunhoferEnergy Economics Group (EEG)Kuhbier law firm

Consortium

Creation of a National RES association network

• Objective: information exchange & learn from each other’s best practices

• A dialogue has been started to motivate the creation of new national RES associations in countries where such bodies do not exist (by bringing

together different national actors & highlighting the benefits for a more structured collaboration).

• Several RES associations are in the process of being founded or have just being created in 2009.

•

Task: Drafting 27 RES National Roadmaps•

Draft roadmaps prepared by national associations and scientists based on

NREAP template from EC.•

Roadmaps will contain the current status, future potentials, detailed

deployment scenarios per technology and sector as well as the necessary policies and framework conditions until 2020.

•

Validation workshops between October 2009 and March 2010

•

Task: Validation workshops•

Distribute draft roadmaps for discussion with national stakeholders

•

Inclusion of comments of discussion in final roadmap

Process to develop the RES industry roadmaps

Thank you very much for your attention !

For more information:

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Meeting the 20% RES by 2020 target Meeting the 20% RES by 2020 target ––The Cypriot approach!The Cypriot approach!

REPAP2020 … Nicosia, April 23rd, 2010 … Slide 1

Authors: Christian Panzer, Gustav Resch– Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology

Contact … Web: http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at Email: [email protected]

Meeting the Meeting the 20% RES target20% RES target by by 20202020 –– the Cypriot approachthe Cypriot approach



Content Content

Modelling approach – The Green-Xmodel

Assumptions of the scenarios

Results of the scenario – The Cypriot case

Approach of the cost-benefit analysis



Simulation model for energy policy instruments in the European energy market•RES-E, RES-H, RES-T and CHP, conventional power•Based on the concept of dynamic cost-resource curves•Allowing forecasts up to 2020/2030 on national / EU-27 level

The The GreenGreen--XX modelmodel

Reference clients: European Commission (DG RESEARCH, DG TREN, DG ENV), Sustainable Energy Ireland, German Ministry for Environment, European Environmental Agency, Consultation to Ministries in Serbia, Luxembourg, Morocco, etc.

Base input information

Scenario Information

Power generation

(Access Database)

Policy strategies selection

Social behaviourInvestor/consumer

Externalities

Framework Conditions

(Access Database)

Results Costs and Benefitson a yearly basis (2005-2020 )

Country selection

Electricity demand reduction (Access Database)

Technology selection

Economicmarket and policy

assessmentpotential, costs,

offer prices

Simulation of market interactionsRES-E, CHP, DSM power market, EUAs

Base input information

Scenario Information

Power generation

(Access Database)

Policy strategies selection

Social behaviourInvestor/consumer

Externalities

Framework Conditions

(Access Database)

Results Costs and Benefits on a yearly basis (2006 -2030 )

Country selection

Electricity demand reduction (Access Database)

Technology selection

Economicmarket and policy

assessmentpotential, costs,

offer prices

Simulation of market interactionsRES, CHP, DSM

power market, EUAs



TheThe GreenGreen--XX approach: approach: costcost--resource curvesresource curves

Potentials•by RES-E technology (by band)•by country

Costs of electricity•by RES-E technology (by band)•by country

COST-RESOURCE CURVES•by RES-E technology•by country

costs

potentialDynamic aspects•Costs: Dynamic cost assessment•Potentials: Dynamic restrictions

DYNAMIC

•by year

TheThe GreenGreen--XX approach: approach: DynamicDynamic costcost--resource curvesresource curves



Key parameter:To ensure maximum consistency with existing EU scenarios and projections the key input parameters of the Green-X scenarios are based on PRIMES modelling and the (updates of the) FORRES 2020 study.

Corresponding PRIMES scenarios:- The European Energy and Transport Trends by 2030 / 2007 / Baseline- The PRIMES scenario on meeting both EU targets by 2020

(20% GHG reduction and 20% RES by 2020) / 2008

►► Overview on RE scenarios Overview on RE scenarios (Green(Green--X)X)

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

Learning rates

Technology diffusion

Biomass import restrictionsCO2 intensities

RES potential (based on FORRES 2020, PROGRESS)Conventional supply portfolio and conversion efficiencies

RES cost (based on FORRES 2020, PROGRESS)Primary energy prices

Reference prices for electricity (wholesale), heat, transport fuels

Energy demand

Defined for this study Based on PRIMES



Key parameter:

Derived from PRIMES …►Energy demands


Gross electricity demand [TWh]

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

PRIMES baseline (2007)

PRIMES target (2008)

PRIMES efficiency (2007)

Final energy demand* [TWh]* defined according to the

proposal of the RES directive

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

PRIMES baseline (2007)

PRIMES target (2008)

PRIMES efficiency (2007)

1.750

1.800

1.850

1.900

1.950

2.000

2.050

2.100

2.150

2.200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gro

ss fi

nal e

nerg

y de

man

d [k

toe]

PRIMES baseline case PRIMES 20% case PRIMES high energy efficiency case



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Inte

rnat

iona

l prim

ary

ener

gy p

rices

[U

S$20

05/b

oe] Oil - high energy prices

Gas - high energy pricesCoal - high energy pricesOill - default energy pricesGas - default energy pricesCoal - default energy prices

Key parameter:

Derived from PRIMES …

►Fossil energy prices(right)

►CO2 prices (below)


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Carbon price (ETS) [€2005] 20.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0Carbon price (ETS) [€2005] 20.0 20.0 27.1 34.2 34.2 39.2



Barriers (non-economic)

Definition of potential termsTheoretical potential ... based on the

determination of the energy flow.Technical potential … based on technical boundary conditions (i.e. efficiencies of

conversion technologies, overall technical limitations as e.g. the available land area to

install wind turbines)

Realisable potential …The realisable potential represents the maximal

achievable potential assuming that all existing barriers can be overcome and all driving forces are

active. Thereby, general

parameters as e.g. market growth rates, planning

constraints are taken into account in a dynamic context

– i.e. the realisable potential has to refer to a

certain year.

AdditionalAdditionalrealisablerealisablemidmid--term term potential potential (up to 2020)(up to 2020)

2000 2005 2010 2015

Historical deployment

Theoretical potential

Ene

rgy

gene

ratio

n

Economic Potential(without additional support)

Technical potential R&D

2020

Policy, Society

Achieved Achieved potential potential (2005)(2005)

Maximal time-path for penetration (Realisable Potential)

Long-term potential

Mid-term potential

Definition of the (additional) realisable mid-term potential (up to 2020)



Achieved potential 2005 und additional realisable potential (up to 2020) for RES in total (in terms of final energy) in the EU-27 by country

►►RES RES potentialspotentials …… How far can we goHow far can we go with with the RES as applicable in the years up to 2020? the RES as applicable in the years up to 2020?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%AT BE BG C

Y

CZ

DK EE FI FR DE

GR

HU IE IT LA LT LU MT NL

PL

PT RO SK SI ES SE UK

EU

27

RES

in te

rms

of fi

nal e

nerg

y [%

of d

eman

d] RES share 2005RES potential 2020 - share on 2020 demand (baseline case)RES potential 2020 - share on 2020 demand (energy efficiency case)RES potential 2020 - share on current (2005) demand



Indicative sectoral breakdown of the achieved (2005, above) and additional mid- (2020, above & below) and long-term (2030, below)

potential for RES in terms of final energy at EU27 level– expressed in relative terms, as share on final energy demand

►►RES RES potentials potentials …… How far can we goHow far can we go with with the RES as applicable in the years up to the RES as applicable in the years up to 20202020/2030? /2030?

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

RES-electricity

RES-heat

Biofuels for transport

RES in terms of final energy [% of demand]

Achieved potential 2005 Additional potential 2020

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

RES-electricity

RES-heat

Biofuels for transport

RES in terms of final energy [% of demand]

Sectoral mid term potential 2020

Sectoral long term potential 2030



RES-Electricity technologies35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%105%110%115%120%

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Cos

t red

uctio

n - s

hare

of i

nitia

l inv

estm

ent

cost

s (a

s in

the

year

200

6) [%

]

Hydropower

Geothermal electricity

Solid biomass - cofiring &large-scale plant Solid biomass - small-scale CHPGaseous biomass

Gaseous biomass CHP

Wind energy

Tidal & wave

Solar thermal electricity

Photovoltaics

►►RES cost evolutionRES cost evolution“Moderate“ learning

Assumptions on expected future technological progress(technological learning)

Resulting (investment) cost reduction due to technological progress (learning)

High energy prices changed the overall situation… Prior learning expectations will not be met with a continuation of high energy prices(i.e. an increase of investment cost could be observed for almost all energy technologies in 2006 to 2008 caused by increasing energy and raw material prices)



RES share in corresponding (gross) demand in 2020 by sector‘low energy demand growth’ (left) versus moderate energy demand growth (right)

Development over time… NAT case (moderate energy demand (growth))

15.4%15.9%30.6%17.8%20.0%29.1%ACT - proactive RES support

15.4%15.5%26.5%17.8%19.0%22.4%EU - European perspective

15.4%15.4%23.1%17.8%18.3%17.8%NAT - national perspective

BiofuelsRES-HeatRES-ElectricityBiofuelsRES-HeatRES-

Electricity

moderate energy demand growth' (PRIMES 20% case)

low energy demand growth' (PRIMES high energy efficiency

case)

Sectoral RES deployment by 2020 [% - share of corresponding (gross) demand]

►►RES deployment in RES deployment in Cyprus up to 2020 Cyprus up to 2020 –– by sectorby sectorin relative termsin relative terms

10.0%25.3%22.5%10.0%31.9%22.7%

10.0%23.2%19.8%10.0%26.0%16.2%

10.0%24.0%19.1%10.0%24.7%19.1%

19,1%

24,0%

10,0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

RES

by

sect

or a

s sh

are

of

corr

espo

ndin

g (g

ross

) dem

and

[%]

RES-Electricity RES-Heat Biofuels



RES deployment in 2020 by sector‘low energy demand growth’ (left) versus moderate energy demand growth (right)

Development over time… NAT case (moderate energy

demand (growth))

►►RES deployment in RES deployment in Cyprus up to 2020 Cyprus up to 2020 –– by sectorby sectorin absolute termsin absolute terms

19,1%

24,0%

10,0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

RES

by

sect

or a

s sh

are

of

corr

espo

ndin

g (g

ross

) dem

and

[%]

RES-Electricity RES-Heat Biofuels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NAT - National perspective ACT - Proactive RESsupport

RES

dep

loym

ent b

y 20

20 [k

toe] RES-Electricity RES-Heat Biofuels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NAT - National perspective ACT - Proactive RESsupport

RES

dep

loym

ent b

y 20

20 [k

toe] RES-Electricity RES-Heat Biofuels



►►Policy evaluation: Policy evaluation: RES deployment* RES deployment* versusversus policy cost policy cost (consumer expenditures)(consumer expenditures)

*RES deployment as relevant for target accounting RES deployment as relevant for target accounting (i.e. with consideration of (i.e. with consideration of biofuelbiofuel trade and cooperation mechanisms)trade and cooperation mechanisms)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%RES deplyoment

as share in gross final energy demand [%]

Ave

rage

(200

6 to

202

0) y

early

con

sum

er

expe

nditu

res

due

to s

uppo

rt fo

r new

R

ES

inst

alla

tions

(200

6 to

202

0) [M

ill.€

]

NAT - national perspective (low demand)

ACT - proactive RES support (low demand)

NAT - national perspective (moderate demand)

ACT - proactive RES support (moderatedemand)

BAU



Based on moderate energy demand projections and proactive support of RES!

Proactive development of RES requires very efficient and effective support of RES and additionally a strong removal of non-economic barriers

►►Derived results based on scenario calculations:Derived results based on scenario calculations:

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Capital expenditures

Additional generation cost

Policy cost - consumer expenditures due toRES support

Avoided CO2 emissions in monetary terms

Avoided fossil fuels in monetary terms

Costs and benefits (on average per year) with regard to new RES installations (2006 to 2020) [M€/year]]

ACT - proactive RES support (2020) NAT - National perspective (2020) BAU



Remark: How can support schemes be strengthened?

►Remove non-financial deficits– i.e. administrative barriers (planning, bureaucracy), technical barrier (grid connection / extension)

►Target new support schemes solely to new RES-E installations►Guarantee, but strictly limit the duration of financial support

►Include the full basket of available RES-E options►Set incentives to accelerate future cost reductions

►Strive for a technology-specification of financial support



Thanks for yourattention!

In case of questions / remarks …► Email: [email protected]

► Phone: +43-1-58801-37360► http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at

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