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The Risk & Rewards of Crypto TradingRyan Wilday, Elliot Wave Trader
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Ryan Wilday
Cryptocurrency analyst at Elliott Wave Trader
Joined EWT as a member in 2015
Trading Cryptos since 2012, with EW since 2015
Started hosting the Crypto service in August 2017
Intro
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Disclaimer
Cryptocurrencies are particularly volatile assets. Nothing in this document is meant to suggest that trading cryptos is a good decision for you personally.
Cryptocurrency is a new, less regulated market which contains risks unique to any other assets.
Any mention of past results is wholly unrelated to future performance.
Nothing in this document should be construed as an endorsement of a product, service, exchange, or any other entity mentioned here within.
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What’s New in Cryptos
CME and CBOE Bitcoin Futures
Some SEC clarity on Cryptos
Institutional Arrival
First Mixed Crypto / Stock Brokerage (Robinhood)
Next?: EFTs, More Brokerage Options
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What’s Old in Cryptos
VOLATILITY!
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What’s Old in Cryptos
5x most other asset classes*
*charts.woobull.com
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Murky Fundamentals
Cash Flow? What cash flow?
Balance Sheet? What balance Sheet?
Price to what?
Balance of Payments?
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The Great Challenge
How to take advantage of this amazing opportunity?
How do you get through or even avoid a 60%, 80%, even 90% drop, or should you?
Or, where do you take profit so you can avoid it?
The Elliott Wave Principle gives objective levels where to enter, take profit. And, these levels can be used to create a very robust trade plan.
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How to Trade CryptocurrencySafely
Cryptocurrencies are a sentiment driven market. How do you value them? We use Elliott Wave is the great discerner of sentiment.
On EWT, we use the Elliott Wave Principle to structure all of our trading:
1. Understand the direction of trend
2. Profit taking targets
3. Risk management and stops
4. Long and short term views
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The Elliott Wave Theory
Theory developed by R.N. Elliott, published in 1938.
Suggests the market moves in waves of sentiment, that have a mathematical sequence similar to mathematical structures found in nature.
People are part of nature and our sentiment runs its course in similar ways that structures develop in nature.
Elliott made some phenomenal predictions regarding the market’s progress that carried through beyond his death.
We find his theory works very well in cryptos as well. They rise and fall in waves of sentiment with some unique particulars vs. other asset classes.
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[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercycle wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.
R.N. Elliott, 1941
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The Elliott Wave Visual
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Elliott and Sentiment
Disbelief
Bear Returns
Chase
Euphoria
Frustration
Despair
Trapped
False Relief
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Wave III= 1.618 the length of wave I, in log
Fibonacci Pinball
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Wave II retraces .618 of I
Fibonacci Pinball
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The Moon Flight
Cryptos and Elliott Wave
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A personal story using Ethereum, (ETHUSD) ca. March 2017
41 Cents
$21.50
$5.92
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Wave 3 = [(top of wave 1/Origin)^1.618*bottom of wave 2]
Wave 5 = [(top of wave 1/Origin)^2*bottom of wave 2]
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Ethereum, (ETHUSD) today
41 Cents
$21.50
$5.92
Wave V $6900
$1420
$230
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
3 Cents
$2.25M
$65-150K
$30
$3200
$2.15
$4700
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.6 Cents
$.88
18 cents
$13.55$3.44
Stellar Lumen (XLMUSD)
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.05 Cents
$1.10
11 cents
$236.00
Bitshares (BTSUSD)
Possible 8 cents
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STEEMUSD (STEEMUSD)
$196
$1327
70 Cents
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How to be successful:
Build a CORE position that you hold through the Bull count on the daily / weekly charts.
Trade around your CORE position using the hourly weekly charts.
The CORE is the position that is most exposed to the large multi-month declines.
The size of positions, or ‘buckets’ is highly personal.
Doing both requires keeping some level of cash position to take advantage of opportunities.
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Low Probability ‘Knife Catch’ at possible 2 wave completion
Higher probability Setup at 5 up, 3 down off of higher degree 2
Trade Entries
Stops are at the bottom of Wave1, tight at .764
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Using Timeframes
Start CORE
Take CORE Profit
Add short term Position
Take Profit on short term position
Add short term Position
Add to Core
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My Style for Trading EW Analysis
Seed completed C wave
Add at first 1-2
Add at next degree.
If failure, stop out or wait to add lower.
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Enter with divergence
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Using Timeframes
Start CORE
Take CORE Profit
Add short term Position
Take Profit on short term position
Add short term Position
Add to Core
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1W
Core EntriesCore Stop at $3000
Core Profit Taking
$2.25M
$65-150K
$3200
$5920
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Style and Success Rate
Long Term Traders:a) Take bigger heat but stop out
at a loss less. b) Tend to have a less smooth
equity curve over time.c) Less effort / trading
Scalpers:a) Tend to have a smooth equity
curve b) More worthc) Quick profit taking, more stop
losses
Swingers: Hybrid
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 6H
Core + short term entry
Core + ShortTerm Entry Core Entry
w/Stop below
Short Term Stop
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$6700 Pivot between red
and white
$15000 ivot between red
and white
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Additional Links
Videos on Blockchain
https://goo.gl/6ap5Me
https://goo.gl/RvhZU1
More complete Introduction Webinar:
https://goo.gl/SEgRQh
PDF on Security
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/r/Crypto_Security.pdf
Links to EWT and Ryan’s Youtube Channels:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3rvB1pR6sJlD9esMul1I4A
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_LK-Dpvv1M2FkjZhugVOWA?view_as=subscriber
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More Free Analysis and Free Trial?
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/cryptocurrency/
Twitter: @rwilday
Articles posted to moneyshow.com
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Questions?
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Thank you!