…OEMs get your house in order!s3.amazonaws.com/JuJaMa.UserContent/daf21f5d-3373-4aa4-9474 … ·...
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July 11, 2016 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 1
Infotainment & Telematics 2.0 …OEMs get your house in order!
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RICHARD ROBINSON
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 2
• Director – Global Automotive Practice • Previous: Alpine as HMI lead on Navigation and Infotainment Design
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20-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF ONSTAR
THE BIRTH OF TELEMATICS…
March 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc. 3
• Automatic Crash Notification
• Good Samaritan
• Turn-by-Turn Navigation
• Hands-Free Phone
• Live Assistance
• Contextual Awareness
• Waze/Crowd
• HERE, TomTom, Garmin, Googlemaps
• Bluetooth/IOT
• Nuance/Servers
1996 2016
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WHAT HAS CHANGED?
1996 2016
• On-board and off-board systems will be gathering and interpreting data to determine: • Hardware and software integrity of the car
• Mood, physical health, attention of the driver
• Identification of driver and passengers
• State of the roadway (around and ahead of the car)
• State of surrounding vehicles
• Weather and traffic
• User interfaces – driver needs – voice, eye/facial tracking, gestures
March 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc. 4
1. Smartphones!
2. Shift from: Reaction Anticipation/Prediction
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INFOTAINMENT & TELEMATICS DESIGN TRENDS
July 11, 2016 5
2nd Generation 1998 2006
Display
CD Changer
Head unit
Navigation
Phone ECU Sat Radio
Amplifier
Distributed BUS Architecture e.g. MOST
$$$$
Display
Device Connectivity ECU
Head unit
Telematics ECU
OR
Native and Phone based apps – Hybrid solution
Cloud
4th Generation 2010
3G 4G
$$
Device Connectivity ECU
Telematics ECU OR
3rd Generation 2005 2010
Head unit
& Display
Navigation
Amplifier
Headunit Integration
$$$
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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July 11, 2016 6
GM: OnStar (1996 )
Audi: Connect
BAIC: NovaLink
BMW: Connected Drive
Chery: Cloudrive
Hyundai: BlueLink (1st gen)
Jaguar Land Rover: InControl Remote/Protect
Ford: SYNC Connect
Headunit with Telematics ECU
Headunit with Embedded Telematics
SAIC: Inkanet
Citroen: eTouch
Hyundai: Blue Link 2 (2nd gen)
Fiat-Chrysler: Uconnect Access
Display
Telematics ECU
Head unit
Cloud
3G 4G
Wireless Modem Bluetooth
USB
Display
Head unit
Cloud
3G 4G
Modem
Wireless LAN Bluetooth
USB
4TH
GENERATION IVI ARCHITECTURES BY OEM
EMBEDDED MODEM – OEM’S PLAYING CATCH-UP
C 4th Gen D
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Mercedes-Benz: mBrace
Nissan: NissanConnect Services
Peugeot: Connect
Toyota/Lexus: G-Book/Enform
Volvo: OnCall/Sensus Connect
Volkswagen: Car-Net
Subaru: Starlink
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INFOTAINMENT/TELEMATICS SERVICES:
July 11, 2016 7
Connectivity Suitability:
Embedded Modem
Tethered Smartphone
Stolen vehicle tracking
eCall - Automatic Crash notification
Remote Diagnostics
Remote Door unlock/Heat
Basic Traffic
Video Streaming
Music Streaming
HD Video Download
Weather, Stocks, data, News
Location based services
Internet radio
Eco-Driving
Workflow Management/Fleet
PAYD – Usage Based Insurance
Road tolling
EV Charging and billing
High Definition Traffic
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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HARDWARE IN MARKET (CUMULATIVE)
OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS 1.0 – BIZ MODEL
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
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ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE)
OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS 1.0 – BIZ MODEL
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
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IN-ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE)
OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS 1.0 – BIZ MODEL
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
Inactive Subs
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INACTIVE SUBS = DEAD $$$
OEM EMBEDDED TCU’S (UNITS/REVENUES)
July 11, 2016 11
Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 alone Over $12 Billion wasted 2011 2017
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OEM TELEMATICS 1.0
ACTIVE VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY REGION
July 11, 2016 12
• Global Active Subscriptions = 31 Million in 2015
• 2011 2015: Global Vehicle Sales = 420 Million units • Market Dominated by North America
• Little consumer understanding of the value of Telematics: B2C
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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NEXT GEN CONNECTED CAR DESIGN
DOMAIN & BUS CONVERGENCE
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 13
2018
Telematics ECU
Headunit
Display
Head Unit
Telematics ECU
Cloud
Smart Antenna
Smart Antenna
Body
Chassis
Safety Chassis ECU
Body ECU
Ethernet
Tele
mat
ics
2.0
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OTA - OEM IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
July 11, 2016 14
OEM Telematics Control Unit
Infotainment System
Powertrain/ Safety All ECUs
2020
2020
2020+
2020+
2020
Late 2016
Late 2016 Late 2016
Late 2016
2017
2020+
TBD TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
2017
2017
2018
2017
2020+
TBD TBD TBD
TBD TBD 2017
2017 2017
TBD
TBD
TBD TBD
TBD
Late 2016
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Convergence
Convergence
Infotainment
Telematics
Safety
Body
Chassis
CONNECTED CAR ECOSYSTEM
TELEMATICS 1.0 2.0
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Connectivity
Infotainment
Smartphone Connections
Privacy
Security
Liability
Safety
Recalls
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics - 2.0
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July 11, 2016 16
Example is Safety - There is increasing reliance on:
• LIDAR, RADAR
• Cameras
• Contextual awareness with the objective of collision avoidance
…most of these
systems have
COMPLEX software…
COMPLEX CRITICAL SYSTEMS
NEED RAPID UPDATE CYCLES…
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AT&T
AT&T
Sprint
AT&T
AT&T
Verizon
AT&T
Verizon
Verizon
Jasper Wireless, Raco Wireless
WirelessCar To Proprietary
WirelessCar, Airbiquity
Proprietary
Proprietary, Convergys
Hyundai Autoever America
SiriusXM
Verizon Telematics
SiriusXM
4G
4G
2.5G/3G
4G
4G
4G
2.5G
3G
2.5G
TELEMATICS IS A VALUE ADD
MORE OEM’S OFFERING EXTENDED FREE TRIAL
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 17
* GM’s OnStar Basic plan, and Mercedes’ mBrace Connect plan are free for 5 years with 2015+ GM vehicles and 2016+ Mercedes vehicles.
Audi Audi connect
BMW ConnectedDrive
Chrysler Uconnect
Ford SYNC Connect
GM OnStar
Hyundai Next-Gen Blue Link
Infiniti Infiniti Connection
Mercedes-Benz mBrace Connect
Toyota/Lexus Safety Connect
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
EVDO
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
GPRS
CDMA EVDO
CDMA EVDO
Connectivity Solution
OEM
Players in U.S. OEM Market
Carrier
6 Months
4 Years
6 Months
5 Years
5 Years*
1 Year
1 Year
5 Years*
6 Months
Embedded telematics is evolving to longer free trial period.
Free Trial Network
Speed TSP
B2C
B2C
B2C
B2C
B2C
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OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - SUMMARY
ACTIVE VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY REGION
July 11, 2016 18
• Global Active subscriptions will exceed 250 Million by 2022 • Leading Regions:
• North America: Market Driver – Early Adoption • Europe: Market Driver – eCall • China: Market Driver – Biggest Global car market
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics 1.0
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NEW VEHICLE OWNERSHIP PARADIGM
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 19
A
C B
D E
F
Content
Maps Apps
Feature/function add-ons, updates
High buyer Priority: Safety
All Domain OTA Updates
Connected Car = Always fresh = Reduce Risk
G Transportation as
an ‘App.’
July 11, 2016
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INTRODUCING TELEMATICS 3.0…
July 11, 2016 20
On demand Reactive
Hybrid – Phone/Embedded
Proactive
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics 1.0
Telematics 2.0
Telematics 3.0
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CONNECTED MOBILITY (TELEMATICS 3.0)
IOT AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY
July 11, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 21
• Volkswagen: BUDD-e concept, partnership with LG Electronics
• Hyundai: Smart Home R&D effort as part of Connected Car Roadmap
• Ford: NEST integration
• Mercedes-Benz: Pebble Smartwatch
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Car-Hailing: Vehicle available for short-term rentals, such as hourly or daily. Arranged via mobile app or website.
Company Examples: Zipcar, car2go
7/11/2016
Ridesharing: Private car owner “shares rides” for payment, similar to taxi service. Arranged via mobile app. Company Examples: Uber, Lyft
Two Business Models: Car-hailing and Ridesharing
Source: Zipcar Source: Uber
CONNECTED MOBILITY (TELEMATICS 3.0)
CAR-HAILING AND RIDESHARING
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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July 11, 2016 23
CONNECTED MOBILITY (TELEMATICS 3.0)
THE DISRUPTERS
Mobility solution companies are at the intersection of the gig economy, “sharing” economy, rental car, and fleet industries.
Transportation Network Company Examples
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Market Valuation >$60 Billion Revenue Growth 40%/Quarter
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July 11, 2016 24
CONNECTED MOBILITY (TELEMATICS 3.0)
OEM’S FIGHTING THE DISRUPTION
More automakers launching, and investing in, car sharing, multi-modal apps, ride-hailing, and other mobility ventures due to concern about predictions of collapsing sales over the long run.
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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TELEMATICS 3.0 IS ABOUT DISRUPTION…
GOOG/ALPHABET, TESLA
Automated driving
No steering wheel, pedals, driver, ownership
Scanned road + sensors
No dealers
No fuel
No service
Software updates (add features, functions post-sale)
“Free” lifetime connectivity
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IN CONCLUSION…
What is the motivation for getting connected ?
1. Architecturally: It makes sense in a software defined future
2. OEM: Reduce ongoing maintenance/update costs
3. Social: Save lives
4. Environment: Reduce traffic & Emissions
5. Efficiency: Save time
Major Reason: Make cars more pleasing, easier to own & use (and of course to sell more)
Strategy Analytics, Inc. 26 July 11, 2016
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July 11, 2016 Strategy Analytics, Inc 27
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Contact: Richard Robinson [email protected]
Director Global Automotive Practice
Strategy Analytics
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July 11, 2016 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 28