…OEMs get your house in order! - Amazon...
Transcript of …OEMs get your house in order! - Amazon...
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June 30, 2016 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 1
Infotainment & Telematics 2.0 …OEMs get your house in order!
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 2
• Director – Global Automotive Practice • Previous: Alpine as HMI lead on Navigation and Infotainment Design
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March 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc. 3
• Automatic Crash Notification
• Good Samaritan
• Turn-by-Turn Navigation
• Hands-Free Phone
• Live Assistance
• Contextual Awareness
• Waze/Crowd
• HERE, TomTom, Garmin, Googlemaps
• Bluetooth/IOT
• Nuance/Servers
1996 2016
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• On-board and off-board systems will be gathering and interpreting data to determine: • Hardware and software integrity of the car
• Mood, physical health, attention of the driver
• Identification of driver and passengers
• State of the roadway (around and ahead of the car)
• State of surrounding vehicles
• Weather and traffic
• User interfaces – driver needs – voice, eye/facial tracking, gestures
March 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc. 4
1. Smartphones!
2. Shift from: Reaction Anticipation/Prediction
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June 30, 2016 5
2nd Generation 1998 2006
Display
CD Changer
Head unit
Navigation
Phone ECU Sat Radio
Amplifier
Distributed BUS Architecture e.g. MOST
$$$$
Display
Device Connectivity ECU
Head unit
Telematics ECU
OR
Native and Phone based apps – Hybrid solution
Cloud
4th Generation 2010
3G 4G
$$
Device Connectivity ECU
Telematics ECU OR
3rd Generation 2005 2010
Head unit
& Display
Navigation
Amplifier
Headunit Integration
$$$
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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June 30, 2016 6
GM: OnStar (1996 )
Audi: Connect
BAIC: NovaLink
BMW: Connected Drive
Chery: Cloudrive
Hyundai: BlueLink (1st gen)
Jaguar Land Rover: InControl Remote/Protect
Ford: SYNC Connect
Headunit with Telematics ECU
Headunit with Embedded Telematics
SAIC: Inkanet
Citroen: eTouch
Hyundai: Blue Link 2 (2nd gen)
Fiat-Chrysler: Uconnect Access
Display
Telematics ECU
Head unit
Cloud
3G 4G
Wireless Modem Bluetooth
USB
Display
Head unit
Cloud
3G 4G
Modem
Wireless LAN Bluetooth
USB
C 4th Gen D
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Mercedes-Benz: mBrace
Nissan: NissanConnect Services
Peugeot: Connect
Toyota/Lexus: G-Book/Enform
Volvo: OnCall/Sensus Connect
Volkswagen: Car-Net
Subaru: Starlink
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June 30, 2016 7
Connectivity Suitability:
Embedded Modem
Tethered Smartphone
Stolen vehicle tracking
eCall - Automatic Crash notification
Remote Diagnostics
Remote Door unlock/Heat
Basic Traffic
Video Streaming
Music Streaming
HD Video Download
Weather, Stocks, data, News
Location based services
Internet radio
Eco-Driving
Workflow Management/Fleet
PAYD – Usage Based Insurance
Road tolling
EV Charging and billing
High Definition Traffic
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 9
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Un
its
(00
0's
)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
Inactive Subs
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June 30, 2016 11
Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 alone Over $12 Billion wasted 2011 2017
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June 30, 2016 12
• Global Active Subscriptions = 31 Million in 2015
• 2011 2015: Global Vehicle Sales = 420 Million units • Market Dominated by North America
• Little consumer understanding of the value of Telematics: B2C
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 13
2018
Telematics ECU
Headunit
Display
Head Unit
Telematics ECU
Cloud
Smart Antenna
Smart Antenna
Body
Chassis
Safety Chassis ECU
Body ECU
Ethernet
Tele
mat
ics
2.0
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June 30, 2016 14
OEM Telematics Control Unit
Infotainment System
Powertrain/ Safety All ECUs
2020
2020
2020+
2020+
2020
Late 2016
Late 2016 Late 2016
Late 2016
2017
2020+
TBD TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
2017
2017
2018
2017
2020+
TBD TBD TBD
TBD TBD 2017
2017 2017
TBD
TBD
TBD TBD
TBD
Late 2016
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Convergence
Convergence
Infotainment
Telematics
Safety
Body
Chassis
June 30, 2016 15
Connectivity
Infotainment
Smartphone Connections
Privacy
Security
Liability
Safety
Recalls
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics - 2.0
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June 30, 2016 16
Example is Safety - There is increasing reliance on:
• LIDAR, RADAR
• Cameras
• Contextual awareness with the objective of collision avoidance
…most of these
systems have
COMPLEX software…
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AT&T
AT&T
Sprint
AT&T
AT&T
Verizon
AT&T
Verizon
Verizon
Jasper Wireless, Raco Wireless
WirelessCar To Proprietary
WirelessCar, Airbiquity
Proprietary
Proprietary, Convergys
Hyundai Autoever America
SiriusXM
Verizon Telematics
SiriusXM
4G
4G
2.5G/3G
4G
4G
4G
2.5G
3G
2.5G
June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 17
* GM’s OnStar Basic plan, and Mercedes’ mBrace Connect plan are free for 5 years with 2015+ GM vehicles and 2016+ Mercedes vehicles.
Audi Audi connect
BMW ConnectedDrive
Chrysler Uconnect
Ford SYNC Connect
GM OnStar
Hyundai Next-Gen Blue Link
Infiniti Infiniti Connection
Mercedes-Benz mBrace Connect
Toyota/Lexus Safety Connect
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
EVDO
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
LTE FDD
GPRS
CDMA EVDO
CDMA EVDO
Connectivity Solution
OEM
Players in U.S. OEM Market
Carrier
6 Months
4 Years
6 Months
5 Years
5 Years*
1 Year
1 Year
5 Years*
6 Months
Embedded telematics is evolving to longer free trial period.
Free Trial Network
Speed TSP
B2C
B2C
B2C
B2C
B2C
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June 30, 2016 18
• Global Active subscriptions will exceed 250 Million by 2022 • Leading Regions:
• North America: Market Driver – Early Adoption • Europe: Market Driver – eCall • China: Market Driver – Biggest Global car market
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics 1.0
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Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 19
A
C B
D E
F
Content
Maps Apps
Feature/function add-ons, updates
High buyer Priority: Safety
All Domain OTA Updates
Connected Car = Always fresh = Reduce Risk
G Transportation as
an ‘App.’
June 30, 2016
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June 30, 2016 20
On demand Reactive
Hybrid – Phone/Embedded
Proactive
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Telematics 1.0
Telematics 2.0
Telematics 3.0
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June 30, 2016 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 21
• Volkswagen: BUDD-e concept, partnership with LG Electronics
• Hyundai: Smart Home R&D effort as part of Connected Car Roadmap
• Ford: NEST integration
• Mercedes-Benz: Pebble Smartwatch
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Car-Hailing: Vehicle available for short-term rentals, such as hourly or daily. Arranged via mobile app or website.
Company Examples: Zipcar, car2go
6/30/2016
Ridesharing: Private car owner “shares rides” for payment, similar to taxi service. Arranged via mobile app. Company Examples: Uber, Lyft
Two Business Models: Car-hailing and Ridesharing
Source: Zipcar Source: Uber
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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June 30, 2016 23
Mobility solution companies are at the intersection of the gig economy, “sharing” economy, rental car, and fleet industries.
Transportation Network Company Examples
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
Market Valuation >$60 Billion Revenue Growth 40%/Quarter
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June 30, 2016 24
More automakers launching, and investing in, car sharing, multi-modal apps, ride-hailing, and other mobility ventures due to concern about predictions of collapsing sales over the long run.
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
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Automated driving
No steering wheel, pedals, driver, ownership
Scanned road + sensors
No dealers
No fuel
No service
Software updates (add features, functions post-sale)
“Free” lifetime connectivity
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What is the motivation for getting connected ?
1. Architecturally: It makes sense in a software defined future
2. OEM: Reduce ongoing maintenance/update costs
3. Social: Save lives
4. Environment: Reduce traffic & Emissions
5. Efficiency: Save time
Major Reason: Make cars more pleasing, easier to own & use (and of course to sell more)
Strategy Analytics, Inc. 26 June 30, 2016
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June 30, 2016 Strategy Analytics, Inc 27
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Contact: Richard Robinson [email protected]
Director Global Automotive Practice
Strategy Analytics
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June 30, 2016 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 28