Agenda item: 9Agenda item: 9

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN LARGE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN LARGE EMERGING AND OTHER NMEs, THEIR EMERGING AND OTHER NMEs, THEIR

COMPARABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS ON USER COMPARABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS ON USER NEEDS ARISING FROM GLOBALISATIONNEEDS ARISING FROM GLOBALISATION

Agenda item: 9Agenda item: 9

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN LARGE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN LARGE EMERGING AND OTHER NMEs, THEIR EMERGING AND OTHER NMEs, THEIR

COMPARABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS ON USER COMPARABILITY AND IMPLICATIONS ON USER NEEDS ARISING FROM GLOBALISATIONNEEDS ARISING FROM GLOBALISATION

OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP)OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP)Paris Paris

25-27 June 200725-27 June 2007

AIMS OF SESSIONAIMS OF SESSIONAIMS OF SESSIONAIMS OF SESSION

• Implications of outcomes of Council Meeting at Ministerial Implications of outcomes of Council Meeting at Ministerial Level (MCM) held in Paris on 15-16 May 2007Level (MCM) held in Paris on 15-16 May 2007

• Brief information on future processes for OECD Brief information on future processes for OECD enlargement & enhanced engagementenlargement & enhanced engagement

• Brief overview of current OECD data collection in NMEs Brief overview of current OECD data collection in NMEs (DB)(DB)

• National presentations on recent developments on short-National presentations on recent developments on short-term economic statistics (STES) in Brazil, China, Russian term economic statistics (STES) in Brazil, China, Russian Federation, ChileFederation, Chile

• Discussions on future evolution of STES in NMEs, their Discussions on future evolution of STES in NMEs, their comparability, Member country initiatives on globalisation, comparability, Member country initiatives on globalisation, etcetc

2007 MCM THEMES2007 MCM THEMES2007 MCM THEMES2007 MCM THEMES

““Innovation: Advancing the OECD Agenda for Innovation: Advancing the OECD Agenda for Growth and Equity”Growth and Equity”

Two broad interrelated elements: Two broad interrelated elements:

• Globalisation, growth and equityGlobalisation, growth and equity

• Enlargement and enhanced engagementEnlargement and enhanced engagement

GLOBALISATION (1)GLOBALISATION (1)GLOBALISATION (1)GLOBALISATION (1)

• Ministers agreed that globalisation is a major engine Ministers agreed that globalisation is a major engine of economic growthof economic growth

• Called on greater OECD role in identifying policies Called on greater OECD role in identifying policies to help ensure that benefits of globalisation are to help ensure that benefits of globalisation are shared more widelyshared more widely

• Recognised adjustment difficulties – job insecurityRecognised adjustment difficulties – job insecurity

GLOBALISATION (2)GLOBALISATION (2)GLOBALISATION (2)GLOBALISATION (2)

• Ministers also agreed on the need to provide Ministers also agreed on the need to provide information to the public on issues at stake based on information to the public on issues at stake based on sound data and analysissound data and analysis

• OECD well placed to address structural economic and OECD well placed to address structural economic and social policy issues from an interdisciplinary social policy issues from an interdisciplinary perspective; and identifying and sharing best perspective; and identifying and sharing best practicepractice

• OECD response on measurement issues outlined in OECD response on measurement issues outlined in OLISnet document: OLISnet document: Measuring globalisation: The way Measuring globalisation: The way forwardforward [STD/CSTAT/RD(2007)4] [STD/CSTAT/RD(2007)4]

• Ministers also agreed on the need to provide Ministers also agreed on the need to provide information to the public on issues at stake based on information to the public on issues at stake based on sound data and analysissound data and analysis

• OECD well placed to address structural economic and OECD well placed to address structural economic and social policy issues from an interdisciplinary social policy issues from an interdisciplinary perspective; and identifying and sharing best perspective; and identifying and sharing best practicepractice

• OECD response on measurement issues outlined in OECD response on measurement issues outlined in OLISnet document: OLISnet document: Measuring globalisation: The way Measuring globalisation: The way forwardforward [STD/CSTAT/RD(2007)4] [STD/CSTAT/RD(2007)4]

MAINTAINING RELEVANCE OF OECDMAINTAINING RELEVANCE OF OECDMAINTAINING RELEVANCE OF OECDMAINTAINING RELEVANCE OF OECD

• OECD has grown since its inception in 1960

• Policy impact and relevance necessitates expanding OECD’s global reach

Austria (1961)Austria (1961)

Belgium (1961)Belgium (1961)

Canada (1961)Canada (1961)

Denmark (1961)Denmark (1961)

France (1961)France (1961)

Germany (1961)Germany (1961)

Greece (1961)Greece (1961)

Iceland (1961)Iceland (1961)

Ireland (1961)Ireland (1961)

Luxembourg (1961)Luxembourg (1961)

Netherlands (1961)Netherlands (1961)

Norway (1961)Norway (1961)

Portugal (1961)Portugal (1961)

Spain (1961)Spain (1961)

Sweden (1961)Sweden (1961)

Switzerland (1961)Switzerland (1961)

Turkey (1961)Turkey (1961)

United Kingdom United Kingdom (1961)(1961)

United States United States (1961)(1961)

Italy (1962)Italy (1962)

Japan (1964)Japan (1964)

Finland (1969)Finland (1969)

Australia (1971)Australia (1971)

New Zealand (1973)New Zealand (1973)

Mexico (1994)Mexico (1994)

Czech Republic Czech Republic (1995)(1995)

Hungary (1996)Hungary (1996)

Korea (1996)Korea (1996)

Poland (1996)Poland (1996)

Slovak Republic Slovak Republic (2000)(2000)

OECD GLOBAL REACH: 1960 - 2000OECD GLOBAL REACH: 1960 - 2000OECD GLOBAL REACH: 1960 - 2000OECD GLOBAL REACH: 1960 - 2000

OECD's Share in World GDP (Current PPP US$)

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

EMERGENCE OF LARGE EMERGING NMEs EMERGENCE OF LARGE EMERGING NMEs (BRIICS)(BRIICS)

Policies of BRIICS NMEs have an increasing Policies of BRIICS NMEs have an increasing global impact, especially over last 5 yearsglobal impact, especially over last 5 years

OECD experience of good policy practice also of OECD experience of good policy practice also of interest to theminterest to them

Council considers it essential for OECD to work Council considers it essential for OECD to work more closely with BRIICS NMEsmore closely with BRIICS NMEs

OECD ENLARGEMENTOECD ENLARGEMENTOECD ENLARGEMENTOECD ENLARGEMENT

• Council consensus on new Members has Council consensus on new Members has been difficult to achieve – discussed widely been difficult to achieve – discussed widely over last 7 yearsover last 7 years

• Gradually reached agreement on Gradually reached agreement on differentiation between differentiation between Enlargement and Enlargement and Enhanced engagementEnhanced engagement

• Consensus finally reached at May MCMConsensus finally reached at May MCM

• Council consensus on new Members has Council consensus on new Members has been difficult to achieve – discussed widely been difficult to achieve – discussed widely over last 7 yearsover last 7 years

• Gradually reached agreement on Gradually reached agreement on differentiation between differentiation between Enlargement and Enlargement and Enhanced engagementEnhanced engagement

• Consensus finally reached at May MCMConsensus finally reached at May MCM

MCM OUTCOMES – BRIEF SUMMARYMCM OUTCOMES – BRIEF SUMMARYMCM OUTCOMES – BRIEF SUMMARYMCM OUTCOMES – BRIEF SUMMARY

Open accession discussions with:

ChileEstoniaIsrael

Russian FederationSlovenia

Open accession discussions with:

ChileEstoniaIsrael

Russian FederationSlovenia

Invited S-G to strengthen OECD co-operation with:

with:

BrazilChinaIndia

IndonesiaSouth Africa

through Enhanced engagement

Invited S-G to strengthen OECD co-operation with:

with:

BrazilChinaIndia

IndonesiaSouth Africa

through Enhanced engagementShould emphasize that this is

only the beginning of the accession process outlined in

document STD/CSTAT(2007)12

Should emphasize that this is only the beginning of the

accession process outlined indocument

STD/CSTAT(2007)12 Entails: Committee

participation; economic Surveys; adherence to

instruments; data reporting; peer reviews

Entails: Committee participation; economic Surveys; adherence to

instruments; data reporting; peer reviews

IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS STRATEGYSTRATEGY

Outlined in: Outlined in: Challenges and Future Directions for OECD Challenges and Future Directions for OECD StatisticsStatistics [STD/CSTAT/WA(2006)1 [STD/CSTAT/WA(2006)1

Mentioned five main areas of work requiring special attention:Mentioned five main areas of work requiring special attention:

• further improvement of co-operation with Eurostatfurther improvement of co-operation with Eurostat

• a more precise evaluation of comparability issuesa more precise evaluation of comparability issues

• other global playersother global players

• peer reviewspeer reviews

• ex-post harmonisation of national dataex-post harmonisation of national dataThese are the four

most relevant areas for work

with NMEs

These are the four most relevant areas for work

with NMEs

IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS STRATEGYSTRATEGY

Only minor changes required:Only minor changes required:

Further improvement of Further improvement of co-operation with Eurostatco-operation with Eurostat

Give more emphasis to development of strategic Give more emphasis to development of strategic alliances with other I/Os working with 10 the NMEs – alliances with other I/Os working with 10 the NMEs – namely IMF; UNSD; UN regional bodies; World Banknamely IMF; UNSD; UN regional bodies; World Bank

A more precise evaluation A more precise evaluation of comparability issuesof comparability issues

No further change requiredNo further change required

Other global playersOther global players Include specific mention of the 10 NMEs cited under Include specific mention of the 10 NMEs cited under enlargement & enhanced engagementenlargement & enhanced engagement

peer reviewspeer reviews Include specific mention of the 10 NMEs cited under Include specific mention of the 10 NMEs cited under enlargement & enhanced engagementenlargement & enhanced engagement

Intensive activity to collect data for OECD Factbook

Part of a new class of products in current PWB biennium to present statistics to a wider audience

IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS STRATEGYSTRATEGY

Only minor changes required:Only minor changes required:

Further improvement of Further improvement of co-operation with Eurostatco-operation with Eurostat

Give more emphasis to development of strategic Give more emphasis to development of strategic alliances with other I/Os working with the 10 NMEs – alliances with other I/Os working with the 10 NMEs – namely IMF; UNSD; UN regional bodies; World Banknamely IMF; UNSD; UN regional bodies; World Bank

A more precise evaluation A more precise evaluation of comparability issuesof comparability issues

No further change requiredNo further change required

Other global playersOther global players Include specific mention of 10 NMEs cited under Include specific mention of 10 NMEs cited under enlargement & enhanced engagementenlargement & enhanced engagement

peer reviewspeer reviews Include specific mention of 10 NMEs cited under Include specific mention of 10 NMEs cited under enlargement & enhanced engagementenlargement & enhanced engagement

Intensive activity to collect data for OECD Factbook

Part of a new class of products in current PWB biennium to present statistics to a wider audience

Essentially means more effort for

BRIICS & Slovenia plus inclusion of data for Chile,

Estonia and Israel

Essentially means more effort for

BRIICS & Slovenia plus inclusion of data for Chile,

Estonia and Israel

Activities include:•further reductions in reporting burden;•joint data collection / dissemination platforms;•data exchange;•co-ordinated / joint meetings

Activities include:•further reductions in reporting burden;•joint data collection / dissemination platforms;•data exchange;•co-ordinated / joint meetings

IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS IMPLICATIONS FOR OECD STATISTICS STRATEGYSTRATEGY

• In light of review presented above, Statistics In light of review presented above, Statistics Strategy does not require Strategy does not require majormajor modification in modification in 2007-2008 at least2007-2008 at least

• Provides sufficient overall direction to incorporate Provides sufficient overall direction to incorporate MCM outcomesMCM outcomes

WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?

• There will be some additional activities in There will be some additional activities in 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – Resource Resource implications still to be evaluatedimplications still to be evaluated

• These will further intensify when outcomes of These will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – PWB – This process will commence soon This process will commence soon

• Process heavily controlled by OECD Council Process heavily controlled by OECD Council – – Require further guidance from Council and Require further guidance from Council and ERCERC

• There will be some additional activities in There will be some additional activities in 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – Resource Resource implications still to be evaluatedimplications still to be evaluated

• These will further intensify when outcomes of These will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – PWB – This process will commence soon This process will commence soon

• Process heavily controlled by OECD Council Process heavily controlled by OECD Council – – Require further guidance from Council and Require further guidance from Council and ERCERC

WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?WHERE TO FROM HERE?

• There will be some additional activities in There will be some additional activities in 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – Resource Resource implications still to be evaluatedimplications still to be evaluated

• Will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 Will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – This process will commence soonThis process will commence soon

• Process heavily controlled by OECD Council Process heavily controlled by OECD Council – – Require further guidance from Council and Require further guidance from Council and ERCERC

• There will be some additional activities in There will be some additional activities in 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – 2007-2008 with the 10 NMEs – Resource Resource implications still to be evaluatedimplications still to be evaluated

• Will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 Will further intensify when outcomes of 2007 MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – MCM are translated into 2009-2010 PWB – This process will commence soonThis process will commence soon

• Process heavily controlled by OECD Council Process heavily controlled by OECD Council – – Require further guidance from Council and Require further guidance from Council and ERCERC

This entails guidance on:

•timelines;•resource issues;•which Committees will be directly involved;•content of the individual Accession Roadmap to be used for each of the five countries.

This entails guidance on:

•timelines;•resource issues;•which Committees will be directly involved;•content of the individual Accession Roadmap to be used for each of the five countries.

ACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAP

• Sets out specific process of accession Sets out specific process of accession contemplated for each country.contemplated for each country.

• Is used as a basis to assess the country’s Is used as a basis to assess the country’s willingness and ability to assume the willingness and ability to assume the obligations of membership.obligations of membership.

• Are technical and procedural in nature.Are technical and procedural in nature.

• Council may also wish to include Council may also wish to include separateseparate political issues in the accession discussions political issues in the accession discussions with a countrywith a country

• Sets out specific process of accession Sets out specific process of accession contemplated for each country.contemplated for each country.

• Is used as a basis to assess the country’s Is used as a basis to assess the country’s willingness and ability to assume the willingness and ability to assume the obligations of membership.obligations of membership.

• Are technical and procedural in nature.Are technical and procedural in nature.

• Council may also wish to include Council may also wish to include separateseparate political issues in the accession discussions political issues in the accession discussions with a countrywith a country

ACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAP

Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:

• legislation and codes of conduct;legislation and codes of conduct;

• national statistical databases and their national statistical databases and their compatibility with OECD reporting and compatibility with OECD reporting and database systems;database systems;

• availability of statistics.availability of statistics.

Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:

• legislation and codes of conduct;legislation and codes of conduct;

• national statistical databases and their national statistical databases and their compatibility with OECD reporting and compatibility with OECD reporting and database systems;database systems;

• availability of statistics.availability of statistics.

ACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAPACCESSION ROADMAP

Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:

• legislation and codes of conduct;legislation and codes of conduct;

• national statistical databases and their national statistical databases and their compatibility with OECD reporting and compatibility with OECD reporting and database systems;database systems;

• availability of statistics.availability of statistics.

Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:Such a roadmap for statistics could cover:

• legislation and codes of conduct;legislation and codes of conduct;

• national statistical databases and their national statistical databases and their compatibility with OECD reporting and compatibility with OECD reporting and database systems;database systems;

• availability of statistics.availability of statistics.

e.g. •UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics;•UN Good Practices on National Official Statistics

e.g. •UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics;•UN Good Practices on National Official Statistics

e.g.

•SDMX standards and guidelines•OECD SIS guidelines

e.g.

•SDMX standards and guidelines•OECD SIS guidelines

e.g.

•OECD Statistical Programme of Work (OSWP)•Compliance against OECD and UN statistical standards •Quality frameworks

e.g.

•OECD Statistical Programme of Work (OSWP)•Compliance against OECD and UN statistical standards •Quality frameworks

RECENT ACTIONS BY CSTATRECENT ACTIONS BY CSTATRECENT ACTIONS BY CSTATRECENT ACTIONS BY CSTAT

Seven of the 10 NMEs cited by MCM already CSTAT Seven of the 10 NMEs cited by MCM already CSTAT regular observersregular observers. .

• Israel’s official request (on 7 December 2006) to Israel’s official request (on 7 December 2006) to become a become a regular observerregular observer approved by CSTAT; approved by CSTAT;

• Extending invitation to Estonia to become a Extending invitation to Estonia to become a regular regular observerobserver also approved by CSTAT; also approved by CSTAT;

• CSTAT endorsed extending invitation to Indonesia CSTAT endorsed extending invitation to Indonesia to attend 2008 CSTAT meeting as an to attend 2008 CSTAT meeting as an ad hoc ad hoc observerobserver

Seven of the 10 NMEs cited by MCM already CSTAT Seven of the 10 NMEs cited by MCM already CSTAT regular observersregular observers. .

• Israel’s official request (on 7 December 2006) to Israel’s official request (on 7 December 2006) to become a become a regular observerregular observer approved by CSTAT; approved by CSTAT;

• Extending invitation to Estonia to become a Extending invitation to Estonia to become a regular regular observerobserver also approved by CSTAT; also approved by CSTAT;

• CSTAT endorsed extending invitation to Indonesia CSTAT endorsed extending invitation to Indonesia to attend 2008 CSTAT meeting as an to attend 2008 CSTAT meeting as an ad hoc ad hoc observerobserver

POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007

POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007

• Identify other I/Os that currently have special Identify other I/Os that currently have special relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.

• Collect further information from OECD Member Collect further information from OECD Member countries on existing statistical bilateral relations countries on existing statistical bilateral relations (data collection, technical assistance).(data collection, technical assistance).

• Use the content of the OECD Use the content of the OECD Factbook Factbook as a as a framework to significantly expand the collection and framework to significantly expand the collection and dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 NMEs.NMEs.

• Identify other I/Os that currently have special Identify other I/Os that currently have special relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.

• Collect further information from OECD Member Collect further information from OECD Member countries on existing statistical bilateral relations countries on existing statistical bilateral relations (data collection, technical assistance).(data collection, technical assistance).

• Use the content of the OECD Use the content of the OECD Factbook Factbook as a as a framework to significantly expand the collection and framework to significantly expand the collection and dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 NMEs.NMEs.

POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007

POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY POSSIBLE FUTURE ACTIONS BY SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007SECRETARIAT IN LATE 2007

• Identify other I/Os that currently have special Identify other I/Os that currently have special relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.

• Collect further information from OECD Member Collect further information from OECD Member countries on existing statistical bilateral relations countries on existing statistical bilateral relations (data collection, technical assistance).(data collection, technical assistance).

• Use the content of the OECD Use the content of the OECD Factbook Factbook as a as a framework to significantly expand the collection and framework to significantly expand the collection and dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 NMEs.NMEs.

• Identify other I/Os that currently have special Identify other I/Os that currently have special relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.relations or work programmes with the 10 NMEs.

• Collect further information from OECD Member Collect further information from OECD Member countries on existing statistical bilateral relations countries on existing statistical bilateral relations (data collection, technical assistance).(data collection, technical assistance).

• Use the content of the OECD Use the content of the OECD Factbook Factbook as a as a framework to significantly expand the collection and framework to significantly expand the collection and dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 dissemination of key statistical indicators for the 10 NMEs.NMEs.

Could be used to prepare proposals for CSTAT consideration on developing future assistance partnerships between the Member country – OECD – NME on narrow or broad statistical activity(ies)

Could be used to prepare proposals for CSTAT consideration on developing future assistance partnerships between the Member country – OECD – NME on narrow or broad statistical activity(ies)

For the 2008 and 2009 editions. Has resource implications – voluntary grants – bilateral partnership (twinning) with NME and MC

For the 2008 and 2009 editions. Has resource implications – voluntary grants – bilateral partnership (twinning) with NME and MC

Thank you for your Thank you for your attention !attention !