OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)
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Transcript of OECD Parliamentary days 2016 - Finance and Inclusive Growth (Part 2)
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FINANCE & INCLUSIVE GROWTHMEETING OF THE OECD GLOBAL PARLIAMENTARY NETWORKFRIDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2016
Adrian Blundell-WignallSpecial Advisor on Financial Markets to the OECD Secretary General, & Director Financial & Enterprise Affairs Directorate.
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2
Investment trends: Capex of non-financials firms in selected advanced economies
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,50020
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
US$, bn Utilities Telecom. ServicesInformation Technology HealthcareConsumer Staples Consumer DiscretionaryIndustrials MaterialsEnergy
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3
Investment trends: Capex of non-financials firms in BRIICS
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 %YoY CHINA
Energy Materials Industrials Utilities
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 %YoY BRAZIL
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 %YoY INDIA
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 %YoY INDONESIA
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
%YoY RUSSIA
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
%YoY SOUTH AFRICA
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4
Investment trends: Capex of non-financials firms in advanced economies versus EMEs
-40-30-20-10
01020304050
%YoY ADVANCED ECONOMIES
Energy Materials IndustrialsConsumer Discretionary Consumer Staples HealthcareInformation Technology Telecom. Services Utilities
-30-20-10
01020304050607080
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
%YoY EMEs
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5
Trends in prices of selected commodities
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
INDEX
Iron Ore Copper AluminiumGold Oil Sugar
2012=100
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6
Long-run commodity, oil prices & US Dollar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-
70M
ar-7
2M
ay-7
4Ju
l-76
Sep-
78N
ov-8
0Ja
n-83
Mar
-85
May
-87
Jul-8
9Se
p-91
Nov
-93
Jan-
96M
ar-9
8M
ay-0
0Ju
l-02
Sep-
04N
ov-0
6Ja
n-09
Mar
-11
May
-13
Jul-1
5
Index 2010=100 $ Real TWINon-Rural Comm RealBrent Real
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7
All in different places to respond
Brazil, Indonesia, South AfricaExch. C/A deficit, recession, outflows, inflationRate External Balance Fiscal deficit/past growth drivers Internal Balance
External shocks: commodities/China/$USEnergy/Materials invest. fallingUnder investment infrastructure/servicesSevere depreciationReserves: stable/moderate fallsRaising interest rates
Russia IndiaC/A surplus, recession, outflows C/A deficit post crisis, inflationLarge fiscal deficit Fiscal drivers-infrastructureExternal shocks:commodities/China/$US Private invest. weak most sectorsEnergy/Materials invest. falling Rapid money growthCurrency crisis/depreciation Targeted moderate depreciationReserves falling/stabilising Increasing forex reservesRaising interest rates China Consumer weakening
Super-cycle ending Stable interest ratesC/A surplus, OutflowsHigh saving/ investment/SOE roleFalling Co. investment/all sectorsRapid money growthLarge interventions stock exchangeTargeted moderate depreciationImposing capital outflow controls
INVESTMENT/AGGREGATE DEMAND
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8
Total return indexes on various asset classes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Ja
n-00
Aug-
00M
ar-0
1O
ct-0
1M
ay-0
2De
c-02
Jul-0
3Fe
b-04
Sep-
04Ap
r-05
Nov
-05
Jun-
06Ja
n-07
Aug-
07M
ar-0
8O
ct-0
8M
ay-0
9De
c-09
Jul-1
0Fe
b-11
Sep-
11Ap
r-12
Nov
-12
Jun-
13Ja
n-14
Aug-
14M
ar-1
5O
ct-1
5
Index (100 = Jan-2000)
US Tsy Tot Ret 10y GBI $ Tot Ret EMEsMSCI World Tot Ret S&P 500 Tot RetHFRI Weighted Index Tot Ret US Private EquityUS Real Estate Shanghai Equity Composite Index
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9
Chinese stocks listed in Shanghai & Hong Kong
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec-
12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec-
13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep-
14
Dec-
14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep-
15
Dec-
15
Price Ratio (Shanghai / Hong
Kong)Quartile 25 Median
Quartile 75
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10
Onshore vs offshore RMB spread
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
12-3
1-20
1002
-24-
2011
04-2
0-20
1106
-14-
2011
08-0
8-20
1109
-30-
2011
11-2
4-20
1101
-18-
2012
03-1
3-20
1205
-07-
2012
06-2
9-20
1208
-23-
2012
10-1
7-20
1212
-11-
2012
02-0
4-20
1303
-29-
2013
05-2
3-20
1307
-17-
2013
09-1
0-20
1311
-04-
2013
02-2
8-20
1404
-24-
2014
06-1
8-20
1408
-12-
2014
10-0
6-20
1411
-28-
2014
01-2
2-20
1503
-18-
2015
05-1
2-20
1507
-06-
2015
08-2
8-20
1510
-22-
2015
12-1
6-20
15
CNY spreadCNY Spread (RHS)
Offshore Deliverable CNY
China Renminbi Spot
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11
Hong Kong RMB overnight interbank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12-1
2-20
1401
-01-
2015
01-0
1-20
1502
-09-
2015
02-0
2-20
1503
-09-
2015
03-0
3-20
1504
-02-
2015
04-0
4-20
1505
-04-
2015
05-0
5-20
1505
-05-
2015
06-1
1-20
1506
-06-
2015
07-0
8-20
1507
-07-
2015
08-0
3-20
1508
-08-
2015
08-0
8-20
1509
-10-
2015
09-0
9-20
1510
-08-
2015
10-1
0-20
1511
-04-
2015
11-1
1-20
1511
-11-
2015
12-1
1-20
1512
-12-
2015
01-0
8-20
16
% TMA ON CNH Hong Kong InterBank Offered Rate (CNH Hibor) Fixing
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Exchange rates: BRICS vs TIGERS
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
INDEX
Yuan
Rupiah
Rand
Sing $
Won
Taiwan $
Rouble
Rupee
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
INDEX Jan 2012=1
SG$/yenyuan/yen$/yenwon/yenTW $/yenRup/yen
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13
Effective exchange rates: China, Japan, Europe
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
12-3
1-20
1002
-23-
2011
04-1
8-20
1106
-09-
2011
08-0
2-20
1109
-23-
2011
11-1
6-20
1101
-09-
2012
03-0
1-20
1204
-24-
2012
06-1
5-20
1208
-08-
2012
10-0
1-20
1211
-22-
2012
01-1
5-20
1303
-08-
2013
05-0
1-20
1306
-24-
2013
08-1
5-20
1310
-08-
2013
11-2
9-20
1301
-22-
2014
03-1
7-20
1405
-08-
2014
07-0
1-20
1408
-22-
2014
10-1
5-20
1412
-08-
2014
01-2
9-20
1503
-24-
2015
05-1
5-20
1507
-08-
2015
08-3
1-20
1510
-22-
2015
12-1
5-20
15
Index(100 = Jan-2011)
Barclays Nominal Barclays Capital Effective Exchange Rate for the JPYBarclays Nominal Barclays Capital Effective Exchange Rate for the EURBarclays Nominal Barclays Capital Effective Exchange Rate for the CNY
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Company long-term debt issues
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500$US, bn Advanced Economies
Pre-crisis Debt
Post-crisis Debt
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500$US, bn Emerging Economies
Pre-crisis Debt
Post Crisis Debt
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Futures in crude being used to hedge untradeable HY energy debt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
01-1
3-20
1402
-10-
2014
03-1
0-20
1404
-04-
2014
05-0
2-20
1405
-30-
2014
06-2
6-20
1407
-24-
2014
08-2
0-20
1409
-17-
2014
10-1
4-20
1411
-10-
2014
12-0
8-20
1401
-06-
2015
02-0
3-20
1503
-03-
2015
03-3
0-20
1504
-27-
2015
05-2
2-20
1506
-19-
2015
07-1
7-20
1508
-13-
2015
09-1
0-20
1510
-07-
2015
11-0
3-20
1512
-01-
2015
12-2
9-20
15
Index(100=Jan-2014)
Index(100=Jan-2014)
USD HY Energy OAS
Crude Oil Price (RHS)
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16
World equity market capitalisation versus world GDP
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
Jan-
12M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
Jan-
16
% Share of WORLD market cap. in World nominal GDP (%)
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Productivity levels & growth rates: Averages combining the decile rankings by sector
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
USD bln /1000 employees
Decile number
ADV Pre-crisis ADV Post-crisisEMEs Pre-crisis EMEs Post-crisis
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
Compound %
Decile number
ADV Pre-crisis ADV Post-crisisEMEs Pre-crisis EMEs Post-crisis