OECD Water Outlook to 2050: Managing Water Risks & seizing GREEN Growth Opportunities
OECD 2 nd International Cat Risks Conference Bangkok, Sept 25 th 2009
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Transcript of OECD 2 nd International Cat Risks Conference Bangkok, Sept 25 th 2009
Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™
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The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia
Robert Muir-Wood & Owen Gough
OECD 2nd International Cat Risks Conference
Bangkok, Sept 25th 2009
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Agenda
Best practices in the provision of hazard data
Relevant perils in SE Asia
Availability of mapped hazard data across SE Asia
Implications of the hazard data deficit – where should provision and access now be focused?
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Hazard Map – Producing AuthorityType of map Either risk based (probabilistic/historical) or forecastParameters Damaging agent A, damaging agent B, damaging agent CRisk Boundaries Boundaries for damaging agent A, boundaries for damaging agents B and CInformation Preparedness, evacuation or response informationRetrieval Method How the data is retrieved by the user (e.g. address search or coordinates)Access How the user initially locates the map or the search form
CoverageStars approximately represent the coverage of the risk area e.g. US hurricane maps achieve coverage despite only including the East/Gulf Coast
Best Practices
Very Good Very difficult to improveGood Sufficient but minor improvements possible
Average Functional but requires some improvementPoor Very limited requires substantial improvement
Key to tables
Key to colours
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Tsunami Threat Map – FESA Western AustraliaType of map Probabilistic Parameters Wave heightRisk Boundaries 100/500/1000/2000 year RPInformation NoneRetrieval Method Not searchableAccess Map available on FESA website, full report linked from GA websiteCoverage Covers entire area at risk from tsunamis
Tsunamis
Maximum wave heights along the
WA coast for return periods of a) 100
years, b) 500 years, c) 1000 years, d)
2000 years
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My Hazards – CALEMAType of map ProbabilisticParameters Shaking, liquefaction, landslide, fault ruptureRisk Boundaries High/medium, at risk areasInformation Preparedness information tailored to each risk level, multi-formatRetrieval Method Search by zip/address/coordinatesAccess Prominent banner link from California state and emergency websiteCoverage Covers all areas of the state of California
Earthquakes
Screenshot of the information page showing the risk
level of hazards, the checklist of
suggested steps to prepare and the tabs to view flood and fire
risk
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Hurricane Preparedness – NHC/NOAAType of map ProbabilisticParameters Intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale)Risk Boundaries Exact return periods for 75nm areasInformation None (available in other sections of NHC website)Retrieval Method Selectable by three areas of coast (Gulf, Southeast, Northeast)Access Link from NHC websiteCoverage Covers all of East and Gulf coast but only at discrete points
Tropical Storms
NHC map of the Gulf Coast showing
return periods for Category 5 hurricanes
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New Orleans Risk – US Army Corps of EngineersType of map ProbabilisticParameters Height of inundationRisk Boundaries 2%/1%/0.2% annual probabilities on separate maps (50/100/500 year RP)Information None (available in other sections of New Orleans Risk website)Retrieval Method Selectable by city area
AccessWhilst this is easily available on NOR website, links should be available from more obvious sites such as Louisiana or New Orleans disaster planning sites
Coverage Covers New Orleans and Plaquemines but not entire NO metro area
Storm Surges
Example of 1% flood heights for the
French Quarter, New Orleans
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Flood Map – England and Wales EAType of map ProbabilisticParameters No informationRisk Boundaries 1%/0.5%/0.1% annual chance of flooding (100/200/1000 year RP)Information Tailored information for each flood risk categoryRetrieval Method Search by postcode or browse mapAccess Prominent link from Environment Agency websiteCoverage Covers all of England and Wales
Floods
Screenshot of map showing regions of
likely flooding, extreme flooding
and protected zones. Data on specific location risk is
available by clicking on the map
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Mt. Rainier – USGSType of map ProbabilisticParameters Lahars, all other volcanic hazardsRisk Boundaries 1-100/100-500/500-1000 year RP, 100-1000 year RPInformation None (available on other sections of USGS volcano site)Retrieval Method Viewed by volcanoAccess Easily located from main USGS hazards pageCoverage Detailed mapping only covers areas surrounding major volcanoes
Volcanoes
Extract from hazard map for Mt. Rainier,
Washington
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Progetto IFFI – ISPRAType of map Probabilistic/HistoricalParameters Superficial landslides, subsidence, collapse, expansionRisk Boundaries Only given as ‘at risk’ areasInformation NoneRetrieval Method By address or areaAccess Theoretically easily accessed but site frequently goes downCoverage All of Italy covered CHECK THIS
Landslides
Extract from the IFFI GIS map. Dark green
areas are at risk from superficial landslides, Light green areas have
COLAMENTO RAPIDO, Purple
hatching represents urban development and Red areas have
experienced collapse or tipping.
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Country – Major Hazards
HazardMap Type Coverage Damaging Agents Boundaries
Information/Reporting Retrieval Accessibility
Eq Earthquake hazardFl Flood hazardLs Landslide hazardTr/Ss Trop. storm and surge hazardTs Tsunami hazardVo Volcanic hazard
Perfect Very difficult to improveGood Sufficient but minor improvements possible
Average Functional but requires some improvementPoor Very limited requires substantial improvement
Approximate representation of area covered by hazard maps
Key to tables
Key to colours
Survey of Hazard Informationin South East Asia
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Countries included in the report
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Bangladesh
Cyclone Sidr, November 2007Casualties: 3,300Losses: US$470million•Strongest Indian Ocean cyclone ever recorded•Caused massive storm surge devastating low land areas•Would have caused 100,000+ casualties had it not been for early evacuation
Bangladesh – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss
EarthquakesProbabilistic Shaking 475 year RP
Local disaster action plans, road map for improvements
No search functionLess detailed version available on
DBM website
FloodsProbabilistic Duration, depth Combined vulnerability index
Warnings and preparedness information
No search function Not apparently available online
Tropical StormsStorm Surges
Probabilistic Wind risk, storm surge At risk, high/med riskWarnings online, other information
available to public but not onlineNo search function Linked from DMB website
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Cambodia
Severe Flooding, September-October 2000Casualties: 350Losses: US$160million•Large lengths of the Mekong River burst its banks•22 out of 24 provinces were affected•More than 3.4million people displaced
Cambodia – Fl
Floods
Historical Maximum historic flood At risk areaThorough warnings and
preparedness info, along with forecast data
Selectable by river stationsNo obvious website for Cambodian
Disaster Management
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Indonesia – Eq, Fl, Ls, Ts, Vo
EarthquakesProbabilistic Ground shaking 475/2500 year RP
Well reported on the BMG website, some information on hazards
No search functionLinked from the PVMBG website. More
detailed map from USGS
FloodsP/F Flooding High/Medium/Low risk
Forecast for up to 2 months available, information available
Selectable by areaMaps linked from BMG website, but
information harder to find
LandslidesProbabilistic Landslide High/Medium/Low risk
Plenty of information available on PVMBG website
Selectable by area Linked from the PVMBG website
TsunamisHistorical Damaged area -
Preparedness road shows/online information and early warning
Selectable by area Not directly available on Indonesian websites
VolcanoesWorst Case
Debris avalanches, pyroclastic flows, lateral blasts, tephra, lahars
Worst case limits, 200/300/500/700 m3/s volume flux
Hazard levels and information for major volcanoes is on PVMBG.
PVMBG information selectable by volcanoPVMBG information easily available. Detailed
Merabi map in a paper.
Indonesia
Earthquake, 27th May 2006Casualties: 5,800Losses: US$3100million•Magnitude 6.2 event some 25km South-West of Yogyakarta•Despite relatively low intensity, extremely shallow depth meant it was very damaging•Most casualties in the Bantul district
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Lao PDR – Fl
Floods
Historical Maximum historic flood At risk areaThorough warnings and
preparedness info, along with forecast data
Selectable by river stationsDMH website provides MRC and local
data
Lao PDR
No major disasters have hit Lao PDR in the recent past
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Malaysia
Malaysia – Fl
FloodsHistorical Maximum historic flood At risk area
Good information and warnings available on Malaysia 999 site
Selectable by regional map plate Only a few example areas available
Severe Flooding, December-January 06/07Casualties: 118Losses: US$395million•Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from the remnants of Typhoon Utor•In some areas rainfall exceeded 10% of the total annual precipitation•400,000 people displaced and evacuated
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Myanmar – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss, Ts
Earthquakes
Probabilistic Ground shaking 475 year RP
Reports of significant seismic activity on DMH website. No information
No search functionNot linked from any Myanmar
government website
Floods
None - - -
DMH provides flood warnings. -Information links on DMH website do
not function
Tropical StormStorm Surge
None - - -
DMH provides tropical storm and storm surge warnings.
-Information links on DMH website do
not function
TsunamiNone - - -
None - None
Myanmar
Cyclone Nargis, 2nd May 2008Casualties: Estimates range from 100,000 upwardsLosses: Estimated US$4billion-10billion•Most damage and casualties caused by storm surge• No accurate loss/casualty figures available• Several million left homeless
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The Philippines – Eq, Fl, Ls, Tr/Ss, Ts, Vo
EarthquakesProbabilistic Ground shaking 475 year RP
Warnings and information on preparedness available
No search function Linked from PHIVOLCS website
Floods- - -
Warnings issued by PAGASA Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC
Landslides- - -
Severe weather warnings issued by PAGASA Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC
Tropical StormsStorm Surges
- - -
OCD and NDCC issue storm warnings Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC
Tsunamis- - -
OCD relays warnings from the NOAA PTWC Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC
VolcanoesProbabilistic Lahars, ash fall, pyroclastic and lava flows High/medium/low risk, areas at risk
Information on hazards and recent activity for all volcanoes
Selectable by volcano Clear links from PIVS website
The Philippines
Typhoon Durian, 30TH November 2006Casualties: 730+Losses: US$1billion+•Heavy rainfall caused huge mudslides down flanks of Mayon Volcano•Unlikely to ever determine full casualty and loss data as some areas buried under mud cannot be assessed
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Singapore
Singapore – Fl
FloodsProbabilistic Flood hazard At risk areaGood information and warnings
availableNo search function but can be viewed
by roadWell linked from PUB website but not
from SCDF
Severe Flooding, December 1978Casualties: 7Losses: US$10million•Caused by extremely heavy monsoon rainfall•Several thousand residents evacuated and disrupted
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ThailandIndian Ocean Tsunami,26th December 2004Casualties: Estimates suggest 8,000+Losses: US$1.5billion• A tsunami, up to 30m high in some places, was generated by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake off the northern tip of Indonesia•Worst hit were popular tourist regions along the Andaman Sea coastline•Accurate casualty numbers are hard to determine as many bodies washed out to seaThailand – Fl, Ts
Floods
Probabilistic Flood hazard High/Med/Low risk
DDPM hazard training academies and online resources.
MRC map selectable by river regions, Chao Phraya map is not
MRC map is easily available and well linked. Chao Phraya map may be
linked.
TsunamisHistorical Damaged area -
Tsunami warnings, preparedness info and evacuation routes
No search functionNot directly available on Thai
websites
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Vietnam
Severe flooding, October-December 1999Casualties: 650Losses: US$800million•Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from several storms•1.7million people displaced or otherwise affected•55,000 people left homeless
Vietnam – Fl, Tr/Ss
FloodsHistorical Flood height, maximum flood extent Central maps, north and south maps
CCFSC and VRC provide information in conjunction with MRC
Selectable by area Not obviously available online
Tropical StormsStorm Surges
None - - -CCFSC and VRC both provide
education and preparedness info-
Warnings provided on the CCFSC website
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Provision of earthquake hazard information
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Provision of flood hazard information
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Provision of landslide hazard information
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Provision of tropical storm hazard information
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Map of tsunami hazard information level
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Provision of volcano hazard information
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Background
The availability of mapped high res hazard data underpins sustained economic development
– Informed risk management decisions need to be made at all levels of society: from individuals, communities, corporations, city administrations, regional and national governments
Hazard data needs to be disseminated – in particular online
– Hazard data should be regularly updated where climate change is altering hazard levels or there is improved science
– Data also needs to be generated for indicative future hazard – to inform long term planning/infrastructure decisions
Backed by strong risk education
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Implications of the hazard information deficit
Cyclone Nargis in May 2007 highlighted the implications of a situation where hazard data is unavailable
No flood hazard maps in the Irrawaddy Delta
– People did not know they lived in a storm surge flood zone
– No evacuation plans
– No monitoring of cyclone forecasts
As a result c 100,000 died – through an ‘information deficit’
Economic and health consequences will endure for years
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