ODRA RIVER ODRA RIVER case studycase study

Andrzej Dunajski, Karolina Królikowska, Andrzej Dunajski, Karolina Królikowska, Maciej SieczkaMaciej Sieczka

CAVESCAVES

Evidence collected so far• Quantitative data from Central Statistical

Office

• Spatial information from maps

• Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts including:

- policy relevant issues

- main tendencies in land use change

- main relationships among key stakeholders

- first decision rules

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office

Thematic scope

• demography

• labor issues

• administration

• land use issues (forestry and agriculture)

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office

Data sources

- yearly collected data from local administration

- data from National Population and Housing Census

- data from National Agricultural Census

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office

Data format

- time series in Excell spreadsheets

- data integrated with vector maps of communes in the GIS database for spatial analysis and visualization

- 35 thematic maps of analyzed phenomena were created, for example:

Unemployment spatial pattern

Spatial information from maps

LULC maps from the Corine Land Cover 2000(CLC 2000) provided by the European SpaceAgency were integrated into GIS.

Current LULC was analyzed based on CLC 2000as an addition to Central Statistical Office’s LULCData.

Spatial information from maps

1:25000 topo maps are being digitized in the

area of Prochowice commune for initial

LULC analysis within the period from 1930's

till early 1990's in this area.

Spatial information from maps

Land ownership along Kwiatkowicki

and Rogowski Channels based on the

land evidence maps were received

From local administration.

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts

Workshops results – policy relevant issues

PROBLEM I

Risk of floods

PROBLEM II

Maintenance of land reclamation system

PROBLEM III

Socio-economic issues

PROBLEM IV

Environmental issues

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts

Main tendencies in land use changeaccording to interviews with experts

• transformation of pastures and meadows into arable land

• land abandonment• integration of land• reforestation• urbanization

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts

STAKEHOLDERS people: FarmersOther land owners State farms ex-workers

institutions:

state land owners

local government

institutions connected with water management

institutions connected with nature conservation

NGO’s

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts

Decision rules

1. Rational choice based on the knowledge of

purchase/sale prices

2. Imitate a successful neighbour

3. Passive waiting – THEY (local administration,

state government) should do it.

4. Follow the leader (eg. Dziewin)

Question for modeling teams

What kind of more detailed evidence is necessary for the modeling teams and what kind of knowledge representation and data format is expected from us?