Growth Targets for 2013-2014

October 24, 2012Jonathan Wiens, PhD

Accountability and ReportingOregon Department of Education

Growth Model

Overview

Oregon’s Growth ModelUses the Colorado Growth Model.Includes all students having two consecutive years of

standard OAKS assessments, regardless of whether or not they are meeting standard.

A student’s growth is compared to the growth of other students in the state having the same prior test scores (“Academic Peers”)

Student Growth is expressed as a percentile. A growth percentile of 75 would mean the students growth was as high or higher than 75 percent of his/her academic peers.

Computes Growth Targets – growth percentiles that put a student on track to be at standard in three years.

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Growth Model Points to Remember

Growth is based on comparing a student to his or her Academic Peers, who are students with the similar test score histories.

Growth of low performing students is compared to that of other low performing students in the state.

Growth of high performing students is compared to that of other high performing students in the state.

Growth model applies to students in grades 4 to 8, and 11.

Uses up to four years of test data for each student.*

* - High school students use only the 7th, 8th and 11th grade scores to evaluate growth.

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Growth and School Accountability

• Schools are given “Levels” in reading and math growth:• Level 5: Schools with high growth• Level 4: Average to above average growth• Level 3: Below average, but not low, growth• Level 2: Low growth• Level 1: Very low growth

• Reading and math growth are combined into a Growth Rating.

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School Growth Ratings• School accountability uses the median growth

percentile.• Median growth is the “middle” growth percentile.• This is the “typical” growth at the school.

• We also report the median target growth percentile.

• A school has “On Track” growth if the median growth percentile is as high as the median target percentile. • “On Track” growth indicates that a typical student is

meeting his/her growth target.• Requirements to reach Level 5, Level 4, etc., are

lower for schools with “On Track” growth. 6

Growth Example - Elementary

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Here is an example of how growth is reported on the School Ratings detail reports. Subgroup growth is also reported.

Growth Percentiles in Oregon

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191

194

197

200

203

206

209

212

215

218

221

224

227

230

233

236

239

242

245

248

251

254

257

260

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Growth Percentiles - Reading Grade 6 for 2009-10

pct10 Polynomial (pct10) pct25 Polynomial (pct25) pct50Polynomial (pct50) pct75 Polynomial (pct75) pct90 Polynomial (pct90)

5th Grade Reading Scores

Gai

n in

6th

Gra

de

Sample Growth Percentiles

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Grade 5 Grade 6 Gain Growth

Percentile Growth Target

195 200 5 16 80209 208 -1 8 72209 214 5 34 64209 218 9 61 58209 226 17 96 48227 232 5 57 27

This sample shows various growth percentiles. Note that the middle four students all had the same starting point in 5th grade. The students in red are shown to emphasize that growth is evaluated relative to academic peers, not on absolute gains in test scores.

SGPs – Higher Order Growth

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Student Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5Growth Percent

ile

Affect of using 3 Years of

dataA -- 211 215 34 --B 190 211 215 66 +32C 195 211 215 55 +21D 200 211 215 42 +8E 206 211 215 27 -7F 212 211 215 17 -17G 218 211 215 8 -26

This data show how 3 years of test scores can affect growth percentiles. Data are taken from

Math growth in 2011-12.

Growth Targets for

School Accountability

Growth TargetsGrowth targets are forward looking.They estimate the growth necessary to meet standard in three more years, or by grade 11.Targets are provided both as percentiles and as RIT scores.The target RIT score represents the typical score attained by students who grew to standard in the past.The target percentile should be viewed as an

estimate of the difficulty of attaining the goal of proficiency in three years.

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Grade

Target

Grade

3 64 75 86 117 118 11

Target Growth

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Student Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5Growth Percenti

le

Target Percenti

le

6th Grade Target

RITB 190 211 215 66 69 220C 195 211 215 55 68 221D 200 211 215 42 66 221E 206 211 215 27 64 222F 212 211 215 17 63 222G 218 211 215 8 62 223

This data show how using three years of test scores affect growth percentiles and create a more complete view of growth. Data are taken from 5th grade Math growth in 2011-12.

Growth Targets, continued

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The data below shows how important it is to remember that the growth data is based on “academic peers,” who are students with similar score histories.

Targets for Students with Same Prior Test Score

Student

Math Score Histories7th

Grade Growth

Percentile

8th Grade Growth Targets

4th 5th 6th 7th Percentile RIT

A 205 212 213 225 66 73 229

B 225 228 222 225 4 59 233

2012-13State Level

Data

Reading Growth by Subgroup

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Growth does vary by subgroup, but by far less than status varies. The differences below amount to only one or two RITs points.

Students with Disabilities

Black/African American

American Indian/Alaska Native

English Learner

Hispanic/Latino

Economically Disadvantaged

Underserved Race/Ethnicity

Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander

Ever English Learner

Multi-Racial

All Students

White

Asian

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

44

45

46

47

47

47

47

45

48

50

50

51

55

Median Reading Growth Percentile By Subgroup

Mathematics Growth by Subgroup

17Students with Disabilities

Black/African American

American Indian/Alaska Native

English Learner

Hispanic/Latino

Economically Disadvantaged

Underserved Race/Ethnicity

Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander

Ever English Learner

Multi-Racial

All Students

White

Asian

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

42

44

44

46

47

47

47

49

49

50

50

51

60

Median Mathematics Growth Percentile By Subgroup

Growth does vary by subgroup, but by far less than status varies. The differences below amount to only one or two RITs points.

Interpreting Growth at the

Student Level

Typical Growth• While growth targets are used for school

accountability, it is important to remember that growth for individual students should be a much more nuanced conversation.

• To help teachers and parents interpret growth, we classify growth in one of three categories:• Low Growth: growth below the 35th percentile.• Typical Growth: growth between the 35th and 65th

percentile.• High Growth: growth above the 65th percentile.

• At this point we have not had the chance to produce individual student growth reports, but if we did … 19

Student Growth Report (forthcoming)

• This is a sample that would show (in graphic format) the data you have access to today. • Typical Growth: growth between the 35th and 65th

percentile.• High Growth: growth above the 65th percentile.

• At this point we have not had the chance to produce individual student growth reports, but if we did …

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Growth Goals• A thorough discussion of individual growth goals should

take into account:• The growth target (i.e., target for proficiency in three years)• The Low, Typical, and High growth ranges.

• Remember that student growth occurs in a range and that, by definition:• about one third of students are likely to show low growth;• about one third of students are likely to show typical

growth; and• about one third of students are likely to show high growth.

• For students well above standard the “target” represents fairly low growth.

• For students well below standard the “target” represents high growth. 21

Growth Goals, continued• Even though average growth does differ

slightly by subgroup, the ranges for low, typical, and high growth are still reasonable, regardless of subgroup.

• However, the fact that the English Learner (EL) and Students with Disabilities (SWD) subgroups have lower growth shows that the Oregon Growth Model is not a true value-added model.• Teachers with high percentages of EL or SWD students might want to take this into account when setting growth goals using this growth model.

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Review of Data File• Includes all students enrolled in grades 3 to 8 on

May 1, 2013.• Includes resident school and district from May 1.• Includes resident and attending school and district

from SSID (as of October 23).• Extended assessment are not included. Students

taking extended assessments will not have any growth or target data.

• A simplified table of growth targets is also available at: http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3797

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How to get your data• Contact your ESD Partners: http://

www.ode.state.or.us/wma/teachlearn/testing/oaks/esdpartners1314.pdf

• Individual school requests are discouraged, it creates a huge workload issue.

• Instead, District Test Coordinators should contact the ESD Partners to request data.

• DTCs can then send the data to internal district staff.

• Remember: these files contain FERPA protected data! 24

Contact Information and LinksMain report card page:

http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=1786Details on priority, focus, and model schools:

http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3742Report Cards and Report Card ratings details: http://

www.ode.state.or.us/data/reportcard/reports.aspxRepot Card resources:

http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3881Contacts:Jon Wiens: email: jon.wiens@state.or.us phone: 503-

947-5764Josh Rew: email josh.rew@state.or.us phone: 503-

947-584525