OCTOBER 2019 Weathering the Storm - World...
4
WEATHERING THE STORM Role of SHGs in mitigating the IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS HIGHLIGHTS • Cyclone Phailin, one of the strongest tropical storms to hit India in the last two decades, made landfall in Odisha in October 2013 affecting 256,000 households. • Phailin led to sizeable decreases in overall household consumption, while expenditure on women’s goods showed the greatest reduction. • Self Help Groups (SHGs) play a positive role in buffering the community from the effects of natural disasters. • In the wake of the disaster,areas where the intervention (TRIPTI) was operating show a significant expansion in the number of loans, whereas non-program areas relied more on state-level aid programs. • TRIPTI offset the decline in total non- food expenditures after Phailin but had no effect on food expenditure, perhaps because non-food items may be easier to finance through credit. • There was a significant increase in women’s mobility in TRIPTI areas, increased engagement with local government, and greater involvement and knowledge of village and state level politics. 3 OCTOBER 2019 1. The original paper is available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/808311522070466796/Safety-nets-and-natural-disaster-mitigation-evidence- from-cyclone-Phailin-in-Odisha. This note is based on the paper Safety Nets and Natural Disaster Mitigation: Evidence from Cyclone Phailin in Odisha authored by P. Christian, E. Kandpal, N. Palaniswamy and V. Rao. 1 CONTEXT Climate change is expected to increase the incidents of extreme weather patterns such as cyclonic storms. Large parts of the developing world including the Bay of Bengal region remain particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of such climate phenomenon. Odisha is located in one of the most disaster prone areas in the Bay of Bengal region with geographical features exacerbating strong winds into catastrophic storm surges. More than 80% of its 46 million population lives in rural areas, and it ranks amongst the most impoverished areas in the region with low levels of women’s welfare. As of 2017, the Human Development Index (HDI) of Odisha is 0.599, well below the national average of 0.639 but an improvement over the 2004 value of 0.482. Cyclone Phailin made landfall in Odisha on October 11, 2013 with wind velocities of 205-220 kilometers per hour on landfall (higher than the 200 kmph velocity of Hurricane Katrina). The cyclone affected approximately 256,000 households and 1.3 million hectares of agricultural land. It also led to one of the largest emergency evacuations on record, with over a million people moved to shelters. Post disaster reconstruction and rehabilitation costs were estimated to be 1.45 billion USD. South Asia Agriculture and Rural Growth Impact Note Series Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript of OCTOBER 2019 Weathering the Storm - World...
Weathering the Storm
role of Shgs in mitigating the impacts of natural disasters
HIGHLIGHTS
• Cyclone Phailin, one of the strongesttropical storms to hit India in the lasttwo decades, made landfall in Odishain October 2013 affecting 256,000households.
• Phailin led to sizeable decreases inoverall household consumption, whileexpenditureonwomen’s goods showedthegreatestreduction.
• SelfHelpGroups(SHGs)playapositiveroleinbufferingthecommunityfromtheeffectsofnaturaldisasters.
• Inthewakeofthedisaster,areaswheretheintervention(TRIPTI)wasoperatingshowa significantexpansion in thenumberofloans,whereasnon-programareasreliedmoreonstate-levelaidprograms.
• TRIPTI offset the decline in total non-food expenditures after Phailin but hadno effect on food expenditure, perhapsbecausenon-fooditemsmaybeeasiertofinancethroughcredit.
• Therewasasignificantincreaseinwomen’smobility in TRIPTI areas, increasedengagementwith local government, andgreater involvement and knowledge ofvillageandstatelevelpolitics.
3
OCTOBER 2019
1. The original paper is available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/808311522070466796/Safety-nets-and-natural-disaster-mitigation-evidence-from-cyclone-Phailin-in-Odisha.
ThisnoteisbasedonthepaperSafety Nets and Natural Disaster Mitigation:Evidence from Cyclone Phailin in OdishaauthoredbyP.Christian,E.Kandpal,N.PalaniswamyandV.Rao.1
CONTEXT
Climatechangeisexpectedtoincreasetheincidentsofextremeweatherpatterns such as cyclonic storms. Large parts of the developing worldincludingtheBayofBengalregionremainparticularlyvulnerabletoadverseeffectsofsuchclimatephenomenon.OdishaislocatedinoneofthemostdisasterproneareasintheBayofBengalregionwithgeographicalfeaturesexacerbatingstrongwindsintocatastrophicstormsurges.Morethan80%ofits46millionpopulationlivesinruralareas,anditranksamongstthemostimpoverishedareasintheregionwithlowlevelsofwomen’swelfare.Asof2017,theHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)ofOdishais0.599,wellbelowthenationalaverageof0.639butanimprovementoverthe2004valueof0.482.
Cyclone Phailin made landfall in Odisha on October 11, 2013 withwind velocities of 205-220 kilometers per hour on landfall (higherthan the 200 kmph velocity of Hurricane Katrina). The cycloneaffectedapproximately256,000householdsand1.3millionhectaresofagriculturalland.Italsoledtooneofthelargestemergencyevacuationson record, with over a million people moved to shelters. Postdisasterreconstructionandrehabilitationcostswereestimatedtobe1.45billionUSD.
SouthAsiaAgricultureandRuralGrowthImpactNoteSeriesP
ublic
Dis
clos
ure
Aut
horiz
edP
ublic
Dis
clos
ure
Aut
horiz
edP
ublic
Dis
clos
ure
Aut
horiz
edP
ublic
Dis
clos
ure
Aut
horiz
ed
impact note 3: octoBer 2019
Figure 1:RainfallshockcausedbyCyclonePhailin
2. OdishawasalsothefirststateinthecountrytolaunchtheNationalRuralLivelihoodsMission(NRLM)in2011,initsbidtobringdownruralpovertybypromotingdiversifiedandgainfulself-employmenttotheruralpoor.
3. Computed fromcensusdata, this indexwasbasedon the the following variables:Densityof populationper SqKmof area, percentofagricultureworkerstototalmaleworkers,netareasownperagricultureworker,percentofnetirrigatedareatonetareasown,percentofcroppingintensity,percentliterate,numberofprimaryschoolsperonelakhpopulation,percentofvillageselectrified,percentofproblemvillagesprovidedwithsafedrinkingwater,numberofmedicalinstitutionsperlakhofpopulation.
Box 1: TRIPTI FoLLowed THe PRoGRam ouTLIned BeLow
• Build institutional capacityofCommunityBasedOrganizations (CBOs), where SHGs at the villagelevel were aggregated into federations at theGramPanchayat(GPLF)andBlockLevel.Themainthrustatthisstagewasthemanagementofgroup-basedlendingandaneed-basedprioritizationofresourceallocationwithin the federation and linkages with servicesprovidedbythepublicandprivatesectorsinordertoimproveproductivepotential.
• Improve access to creditthroughtheprovisionofSHGgrantscalledtheCommunityInvestmentFunds(CIFs),withtheintentionthatthesewouldbeusedtomeettheinvestmentneedsofthetargetpoor,andthattheseneedswouldbe identifiedthrougha facilitatedprocessofmicro-investmentplanning.
• Link CIFswithlivelihoodsinterventionsthatfocusedonimprovingproductivity.
• Harness the collective bargaining potential oftheseinstitutionalplatformsandenablingbeneficiariestonegotiatewithmarketactorsforbettereconomicgains,andwithserviceproviders(government,privatesector,andcivilsociety)forbetterservicedelivery.
Whilepolicymakershave longbelievedthatSHGscanbeusedtoeffectivelyattenuatetheeffectsofsevereweatherevents,theoverlapbetweentheareasimpactedbyCyclonePhailin and those participating in an impact evaluationassessment of SHGs in the state, presented a concreteopportunity to bear out this conviction and to study thegenderedimpactofclimatedisasters.
INTERVENTION
In2006,theGovernmentofOdisha(GoO)formedtheOrissaPovertyReductionMission(OPRM;reconstitutedasOdishaLivelihoods Mission – OLM) to target poverty reductionunder the aegis of the Department of Panchayati Raj. Inconsonancewiththeseobjectives,theGoOhadinitiatedanSHGprogramcalledMission Sakthi in 2001.However, theprogramwasplaguedbyvariousinefficienciesandtheTargetedRural Initiatives forPovertyTerminationand InfrastructureTRIPTIwaslaunchedin2009withassistancefromtheWorldBank, and implemented by the Orissa Rural LivelihoodsProgram (ORLP) to address the lacunae of inclusion, andlimitedproductivepotential.2TRIPTI aimed to address thehighratesofruralpovertyinOdisha,withaparticularfocusonincreasingdiversificationoflivelihoodsandthereductionofdebt, using SHGsasnodesof credit, andwith a specialfocusonwomen’sempowerment,strengtheningcommunitytiesandincreasingcommunityaction.
Theprojectwasrolledoutinastaggeredmanneramongstvillagecouncils,andby2015TRIPTIhadbeenimplementedin 38 sub districts in 10 coastal districts of Odisha.Theadministrative blocks receiving the intervention wereidentifiedthroughaparticipatoryidentificationprocess,basedon a situational analysis whereby an objective assignmentscorecalculatedasaweightedaverageofthetotalnumberofhouseholds,numberofhouseholdsbelongingtolowestcastes,numberof SHGsdeemedcreditworthy andaCompositeDevelopment Index.3 In each district four blockswith thehighestscorewerechosentoreceivetheintervention.
Mon
thy
rain
fall
- m
onth
y m
edia
n(m
m)
Month
400
200
-200
0
2009 2010 20122011 2013
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 2:ImplementationoftheOLM
Impr
ove
Cre
dit A
cces
s fo
r th
e Po
or, I
nves
tmen
t in
Pr
oduc
tive
Live
lihoo
ds o
f the
Poo
r
Identification of target poor
Insitutional Capacity Building
Community Investment
Funds
Inclusion of the Poor in SHGs
Federation of SHGs into
Microinvestment Planning for All
Households
Prioritization of Investments Needs of Poor Households
Livelihoods Inverventions to Improve
Productive Potential
Participatory Identification
Process
New SHGs
Old SHGs
New GPLFs
Restructured GPLFs
impact note 3: octoBer 2019
KEYFINDINGS
Results showed that there were significant impact of thecyclone,yettherewassubstantialvariationintheintensitywithwhichthehouseholdswereaffected.Followingspatialcorrelationstrategiesitwasfoundthatcommunitiesclosertothecoastwereaffectedmore,which is inconcordancewiththefactthatcyclonesarestrongestuponlandfall.5
Households’expenditurepercapitawassignificantlyreducedin the wake of Phailin (by up-to a third in areas wherethe rainfall shock was the greatest), driven by lower percapitafoodexpenditure(consumptionshock).Householdsswitched from purchased food to home grown foodsuggesting a coping strategyofdrawing fromstored food.ItwasobservedthatTRIPTIoffsetthedeclineintotalnon-foodexpendituresafterPhailinbuthadnoeffecton foodexpenditure,perhapsbecausenon-fooditemsmaybeeasiertofinancethroughcredit.Healthandeducationexpenditure,forinstance,didnotshowmuchchangeafterPhailin.
Interestingly,surveyresultsobservedasignificantincreaseinexpenditureonfestivalswherebytheworstaffectedareasspent more on Raja, a local festival that was celebratedeightmonthsafterPhailin’slandfall.Theincreaseinfestivalexpenditureisbalancedoutinmagnitudewithadecreaseinexpenditure onwomen’s goods, (including clothing, shoes,hygieneproducts,andtoiletriespurchasedforwomen).Itisworthnotingthatthedecreaseinexpenditureonwomen’sgoodswas primarily observed in areaswhere theTRIPTIprogramwasnotactive,eithersuggestingthatTRIPTImayhave bufferedwomen from the impact of Phailin, or thatwomeninTRIPTIareasaremoreempowered,orboth.
There was a significant increase in women’s mobility inTRIPTIareas,whichmaybedrivenbytheirvisitstoSHGsmeetings(17.8%)andtothebank(5.3%)alone.WomeninTRIPTI areaswere5%more likely tousegram panchayatmeetings to raise problems with domestic violence andalcoholismandtoaddressissueswithgovernmentwelfareschemes. Their willingness to take collective and publicactionwas 8% age points higher, and their willingness topursueaninstitutionalresponsetocollectivechallengeswas12.8%pointshigherinTRIPTIareas.
In2016,ataprojectcostof90.5millionUSD, theOrissaRuralLivelihoodsProjecthad750,000members(overtwicethe original target)who gained access to credit of aboutINR 10,000 each and were organized into 79,000 SHGsandover1,000federations,withahighlevelofmembershipamongthepooranddisadvantagedinthecommunitybasedorganizations.
EVALUATIONDESIGN
The formalized rollout of TRIPTI was designed inconjunction with an impact evaluation, whereby abaseline survey for the impact evaluation ofTRIPTIwasconducted in 2011, two years before Cyclone Phailinmade landfall in 2013, with data from 2875 householdsfrom 160 randomly selected villages. Thereafter, anendline survey was conducted in November 2014 andrevisitedthehouseholds fromthebaseline.Thesurveyedcommunitiesoverlappedsignificantlywithareasaffectedbythedisaster.
UsingspatialvariationintheintensityoftherainfallshockandthestaggeredrolloutofTRIPTI,researchersconducteda large-scale statistical examination of (1) the negativeconsumption impacts ofCyclone Phailin, and (2)whetherthepriorpresenceofTRIPTISHGsmitigatedcovariateriskbyimprovingaccesstocreditandprovidingaplatformforgovernment response.4The team conducted a regressionanalysistomeasurethedifferentialeffectsofPhailinacrossTRIPTIandnon-TRIPTIareas,andeconometricanalysistoaccountfortimeinvariantcharacteristicsofthehouseholdsandtheirlocation.
Figure 3:OverlapinareasaffectedbyCyclonePhailinandareasunderTRIPTIimplementation
The analysis models average impacts of both Phailin andTRIPTIandaccountsforauto-correlationusingadifferences-in-differencesapproachtoassesswhetherthedifferenceinobservationsareconstantovertimeforreasonsotherthanexposuretothecycloneorTRIPTI.However,duetothefactthatextremeweathereventsarenotrandomlyassignedandthesmallpossibilitythatdifferentialtrendsinthevariablesobservedarosefromsourcesotherthanTRIPTIorPhailin,the study must be regarded as suggestive evidence onthe impactsofbothextremeweatherand thesafetynetsdesignedtomitigatethem.
4. TheevaluationdesignincorporatedaGeographicInformationSystems(GIS)-codeddatasetfromtheIndianMeteorologicalDepartment’s(IMD)tomeasuretheabsolutedeviationfromthehistoricalaverageofmillimetersofrainfallatthenearestweatherstationtogetherwithdataonhouseholdexpenditures,consumption,credit-seeking,andpoliticalengagementfromtheTRIPTIsurveys.
5. Householdscharacteristics,visavisconsumption,lendingandpoliticalparticipation,werebalancedaccordingtocycloneintensity.
REFERENCESGlobalDataLab,SubNationalHDI,https://hdi.globaldatalab.org/areadata/shdi/,LastRetrieved17Feb2019
D.Singh, andA. Jeffrie, IndiaCyclonePhailin inOdishaOctober2013,RapidDamageNeedsAssessmentReport.GovernmentofOdisha,2013
P.Christian,E.Kandpal,N.Palaniswamy,V.Rao,SafetyNetsandNaturalDisasterMitigation:EvidencefromCyclonePhailininOdisha.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper;No.8375,WorldBank,2018
Government of India, National Rural Livelihoods Mission Framework forImplementation,2011
WorldBank,A targeted rural livelihoods program in Orissa (English).TheSouthAsiaFoodandNutritionSecurityInitiative(SAFANSI).Washington,D.C.:WorldBankGroup,2017
Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) IN: Orissa Rural Livelihoods Project(P093478),ImplementationCompletionReport(ICR)Review,2016
S.Joshi,N.PalaniswamyandV.Rao,ImpactEvaluationFrameworkandResults:OdishaRuralLivelihoodsProject
P.Christian,E.Kandpal,N.Palaniswamy,V.Rao,SafetyNetsandNaturalDisasterMitigation:EvidencefromCyclonePhailininOdisha.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper;No.8375,WorldBank,2018
S.Majumdar,V.Rao,P.Sanyal,On the frontlines of scaling-up : a qualitative analysis of implementation challenges in a CDD project in rural India (English). Policy
Research working paper; no.WPS 8039.Washington, D.C. :World BankGroup,2017
S.Joshi,N.PalaniswamyandV.Rao,ImpactEvaluationFrameworkandResults:OdishaRuralLivelihoodsProject,WorldBank
P.Christian,E.Kandpal,N.Palaniswamy,V.Rao,SafetyNetsandNaturalDisasterMitigation:EvidencefromCyclonePhailininOdisha.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper;No.8375,WorldBank,2018
Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) IN: Orissa Rural Livelihoods Project(P093478)ImplementationCompletionReport(ICR)Review,2016
P.Christian,E.Kandpal,N.Palaniswamy,V.Rao,SafetyNetsandNaturalDisasterMitigation:EvidencefromCyclonePhailininOdisha.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper;No.8375,WorldBank,2018
T.A.CarletonandS.M.Hsiang,SocialandEconomicImactsofClimate,ScienceVolume353,Issue6304,09September2016
S.Joshi,N.PalaniswamyandV.Rao,ImpactEvaluationFrameworkandResults:OdishaRuralLivelihoodsProject,WorldBank
V.Rao,“Celebrations as Social Investments: Festival Expenditures,UnitPriceVariationandSocialStatusinRuralIndia.”TheJournalofDevelopmentStudies,38:71–97,2001
WorldBankGroupWebsite,TriptiOffersHopeandDignitytoWomeninRuralOdisha - http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/09/01/tripti-offers-hope-dignity-to-women-rural-odisha,LastRetrieved17February2019
impact note 3: octoBer 2019
TRIPTI households in cyclone-affected areas took out agreaternumberof loans than in areasnot affected. Firsttime borrowing from SHGs as well as the loan amountincreased in the wake of Phailin, highlighting the credit-expanding role of TRIPTI. This is particularly relevantsinceestimatesalsoshowthatPhailinreducedtheamountof borrowing in non-TRIPTI areas. The governmentextensivelyusedTRIPTIinfrastructuretodistributeaidtocyclone-affectedareas.
TRIPTI areas had increased awareness of the last villagecouncil meeting, as opposed to non-TRIPTI areas.TRIPTIareasalsofounditeasiertofacilitatecommunitymeetingsin order to provide information about aid programs orleverageaid.
POLICYLESSONS
Theriseofnon-foodexpendituresinTRIPTIareasindicatethat SHGs can help rebuild capital assets of householdsimpactedbynaturaldisastersandthateasyaccesstocreditcanmitigaterisksforcommunitiesexposedtothem.
This study found empirical evidence to support two longheld conjectures in the development community that (1)womenaredisproportionatelyvulnerabletoclimatechangeand that (2) they buffer their households in thewake ofadverseeconomicshocks.
Increased household expenditure on festivals may seemcontrary at a time of adversity. However, the findingsof this study suggest that thismaybe a combinationof ademonstrationofgratitudeforhavingsurvivedatraumaticevent, households havingmore disposable income due totheinfluxofpost-Phailinaid,orprivatesocialandeconomicreturnssuchaslowerpricesoffoodhighersocialstatusandmoreinvitationstomealsfromotherfamilies.
CONCLUSION
ItwasdemonstratedthattheTRIPTIareasaffectedbythecycloneshowed greater community action and self-sufficiency, withSHGsincreasinglyusedbygovernmentstoimpartandleverageaid formaximum impact.Thehigherdegreeof awareness inTRIPTIareasofvillagecouncilmeetingsanddecisionreflectsacentralroleplayedbytheSHGsinshoringupthecommunitypost disaster, promoting effective community action, andprovidinghopeanddignitytotheirwomenmembers.
Furtherresearchneedstobedonetofullyunderstandthecorrelation between group based community lending andnatural disaster relief.As climate change becomes a realthreattoanincreasingnumberofruralcommunities,thereisurgentneedtolookintotheeffectivenessofcommunitygroupslikeSHGstoserveassocialsecuritynetsinthewakeofthesedisasters,aswellastheircost-effectivenesswhencomparedtootherdisasterresponseprograms.
ABOUTTHEIMPACTNOTESERIESThis note is part of the South Asia Agriculture and Rural Growth Impact Note Series, that seeks to disseminate research and analysisfocusedonWorldBankfinancedrural,agricultureandfoodsystemsprogramsinIndia.Serieseditors:AbhishekGuptaandGayatriAcharya.Photographer:RohitJain.
WearegratefulforthegeneroussupportfromTheSouthAsiaFoodandNutritionSecurityInitiative(SAFANSI),GatesFoundation,MinistryofRuralDevelopmentandvariousstateruraldevelopmentdepartments.
ThisnotewaspreparedbyDeeptiKakkar(Consultant,WorldBank)andpublishedbytheFood&AgricultureGlobalPracticeatTheWorldBank,1818HStreet,NWWashington,DC20433USA.Website:www.worldbank.org.Forfurtherinformationorcopiespleaseemail:[email protected].
disclaimer:Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisnoteareentirelythoseoftheauthor(s)andshouldnotbeattributedinanymannertotheWorldBank,toitsaffiliatedorganizationsortomembersofitsBoardofExecutiveDirectorsorthecountriestheyrepresent.
