October 2016 CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil October_2016.pdf · from residual oil to gasoil,...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

HFO (Heavy fuel oil) - Pure or nearly pure residual oil, roughly equivalent to No. 6 fuel oil.

HFO is the most commonly used fuel oil, also referred to as bunker fuel and residual fuel oil. In 2015, HFO accounted for 81 percent of total bunker fuel supply; marine gasoil and diesel fuel accounted for 19 percent.1 These fuels have more than 17 different characteristics, but it is the sulphur content which is of specific concern in a newly approved regulation. Residual fuel oil as a rule contains relatively high amounts of pollutants, particularly sulphur, which forms sulphur dioxide upon combustion. Since the 1980s, two organizations have played a role in the regulation of marine fuels – the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the International Marine Organization (IMO). In 2008, the revised Annex VI to IMO Marpol 73/78 was adopted and required the sulphur content of any fuel used on board ships not to exceed: 4.50 percent m/m prior to 1 January 2012 3.50 percent m/m on and after 1 January 2012 0.50 percent m/m on and after 1 January 2020 or

2025, depending on the outcome of a review, which had to be completed by 2018 to determine availability of fuel oil to comply with the fuel oil standard.

This past October, the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee decided that it was going to be 2020, asserting affirmatively on the availability of fuel with 0.5 percent of sulphur content. It spurred massive discussions on the implications of such policy and those who would be impacted the most. Heavy oil producers, including in Canada, are named as one of them. North American Emissions Control Area (ECA) A stricter level of sulphur content had to be followed in special marine zones. In March 2009, Canada and the United States jointly submitted a proposal to the IMO to designate most areas of their coastal waters for 200 nautical miles (about 370 km) from the shoreline as an

Impact of Changing Marine Regulations on Canadian Crude Supply Andrew Romaniuk The lead up to World War I brought a radical change in the energy source used by the British Royal Navy. During the years 1911-1914, oil was substituted for coal to achieve an advantage in speed and bring supremacy at sea. The decision was formidable for Britain, who did not have domestic oil supplies. Britons bet on oil, and won. Today, international environmental policies serve as a stimulus for the next substantial change in the energy source for ships. Marine emissions restrictions have been around for several decades. But it is the recent International Marine Organization’s (IMO) announce-ment in October 2016, which approved seven times more stringent sulphur-emission regulations taking effect in January 2020, that may bring about the next big change in marine fuel consumption. Types of Fuels and Regulation Marine/bunker fuel is any type of fuel oil used aboard vessels; it comes from petroleum distillation, and is generally classified by a number from 1 to 6 with 1-4 being distillates and 5-6 being residual fuel oil. Marine fuel oil classification has five generic categories: MGO (Marine gasoil) - roughly equivalent to No. 2

fuel oil, made from distillate only MDO (Marine diesel oil) – a blend of MGO and HFO IFO (Intermediate fuel oil) - a blend of MGO and HFO,

with less gasoil than MDO MFO (Marine fuel oil) - a blend of MGO and HFO,

with less gasoil than IFO

October 2016

CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollutant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_dioxide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Organization_for_Standardization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Organization_for_Standardization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillation

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Emissions Control Area (ECA) for the control of sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter emissions. This ECA included waters adjacent to the Pacific coast, the Atlantic/Gulf coast and the main Hawaiian Islands. According to calculations by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the North American ECA will save up to 14,000 American and Canadian lives every year by 2020 by imposing stricter environmental standards on large ships. Because ship pollution travels great distances, much of the inland population is also affected by ship emissions and will benefit from cleaner air. The economic impacts of complying with the ECA program were expected to be modest: US$3.2 billion/year in 2020, while the health-related benefits were estimated to be as much as US$110 billion/year in 2020. The North American ECA came into force in 2011 with 1 percent sulphur level fuel to be used within designated areas as of August 2012, and 0.1 percent starting January 2015. Reportedly, there was no shortage of fuels to accommodate stricter regulation. The 0.1 percent sulphur ECA compliant bunker fuel was almost entirely distillate-based and was primarily achieved by blending very low sulphur distillate stocks into smaller amounts of fuel oil.2

Currently effective ECAs also include the Baltic Sea, North Sea and English Channel, and keep expanding. The EU has decided to introduce a 0.5 percent limit in its territorial waters outside existing ECAs in 2020. The Chinese government plans to introduce several ECAs by 2020; other parts are also being considered (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Marine Traffic Intensity and Global ECAs

Source (top): www.marinetraffic.com Source (bottom): Greener Shipping in North America

Compliance Solutions With 3 years to go to reach a seven times sulphur content drop, shippers are left to determine what fuel to use, while producers and refineries are faced with the decision of what to do with more than 3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of sulphur-laden fuel oil. What’s evident is that there will be immediate losers and winners; for shippers to comply, investments should be made throughout the supply chain. A number of possible solutions could be pursued by parties independently or in conjunction with their suppliers and customers. First, producers with high sulphur crude may invest in decreasing sulphur content during production. Producers in Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil are among those who will have to consider this option. In Canada, in 2016, conventional heavy crude and non-upgraded bitumen is expected to account for 49 percent of all Canadian production. Sulphur content for these crudes is generally within 2-5 percent3 (see Figure 2).

http://www.marinetraffic.com


Figure 2: Densities and Sulphur Content of Crude Oils

The processing costs could be prohibitive. If high-sulphur crude is used to produce bunker fuel, producers will either have to sell their crude at a discount to specialized refineries which can produce low-sulphur fuel oil out of heavy crude. Alternatively, producers will have to invest upfront to remove sulphur in the field thus avoiding selling their crude at a discount and expand on their choice of refineries. Second, refineries which do not have large secondary conversion capacities, may switch to feedstock with lower sulphur levels. Typically refining light sweet crude in a simple refinery yields smaller volumes of residual fuel oil than refining heavy crude oil. Refining Western Canadian Select (WCS) will yield almost 60 percent of heavy fuel oil without a coker.4 Typical yields are shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Refining Yields

Switching feedstock might be a preferred option for refineries allowing them to avoid additional investments provided they will have stable access to low-sulphur suppliers. It will mean that refineries will substitute HFO to MGO/MDO, which are of higher value. If they do not

switch, they can opt for blending fuels to reach the 0.5 percent sulphur level. This solution, however, will require a lot of low-sulphur distillates, which could be sold on their own at a premium price. The disadvantaged will be cracking and hydroskimming refineries which produce fuel that cannot be blended in the bunker pool. Third, refineries may invest in a deeper conversion of crude, which comes with a significant price tag. This would enable them to produce less residual oil and more valuable fuels, including gasoil which will be highly demanded after 2020. The winners here will be already existing advanced refineries with coking units, hydrocrackers, and desulphurization units. For comparison, refining WCS with a coker will yield just several percent of heavy fuel oil. Adding a residual hydrocracker capable of stripping fuel of sulphur can cost nearly 1 billion dollars, according to Wood Mackenzie, and the entire process of project design, permitting, approval and construction can take as long as a decade, with construction taking 3 years. Adding new cokers comes with a similar investment and time to construct as a hydrocracker. If refineries start project designs of retrofits today, they will likely miss the deadline of 2020. To get by they will have to resort to blending or try to find new customers for the freed heavy fuel in the already shrinking markets: in Canada residual oil consumption decreased by 26 percent from 2010 to 2014; in the US it was 52 percent. Fourth, shippers and vessel owners may choose to switch to gasoil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2020 2 MMbpd of demand will move from residual oil to gasoil, reaching 2.7 MMbpd for the latter,5 almost flipping the proportion of total bunker fuel supply. Interestingly, the dramatic change is to happen instantly in the IEA’s view, in one year, without a gradual transition. Figure 4: Demand Outlook for Fuel Oils

Source: IEA, “Mid-term Oil Market Report”, 2016.


This option is the easiest for shippers due to the ability to run existing engines on gasoil which have been previously run on HFO. However, extra surcharges will have to be levied on end-customers to reimburse for more expensive fuel (the current price difference between HFO and MGO is $190/t6). The price difference will potentially widen even more as gasoil and HFO demand will go in opposite directions. Fifth, shippers may install on-board abatement equipment to desulphurize engine emissions (exhaust gas cleaning systems also called “scrubbers”). CAPEX can be in the range of 3-10 million dollars per vessel and requires 18-20 days of work. This equipment will allow shippers to continue using cheap residual fuel, and become more price-competitive compared to gasoil-fueled carriers after the investment pays back. Theoretically, if all ships would introduce scrubbers, there would be no change in the fuel market. Yet, this solution will not accommodate everyone. DuPont Clean Technologies estimates that only 20 percent of the global fleet may get equipped with scrubbers by 2025.7 To opt or not for scrubbers, each ship owner will have to consider the remaining life of a vessel, expected time of presence in the ECAs, uncertainties for further tightening of regulations regarding nitrous oxide (NOx) and particulate matter, and the medium-term forecast of the price differential between gasoil and HFO. According to a study by Green Ship of the Future, with a cost spread of $350/t between MGO and HFO, a 3-year payback period can be achieved for 100 percent ECA operation. At 50 percent ECA operation, the payback is 6 years (see Figure 5). For low ECAs or no ECA presence, scrubbers do not seem cost effective over 10 years.

Figure 5: Project Economics of Scrubber

Source: Green Ship of the Future

Lastly, ships may be switching to a completely different fuel – liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is not technically applicable for all the existing fleet as LNG tanks require more space compared to scrubbers. But for new builds it is quite plausible. Currently, LNG accounts for a small share of the global bunkering market. It’s expected to grow over the next five years so that by 2021 it will replace 0.3 MMbpd of oil-based bunker fuel and will account for ~7.5 percent of all marine fuel supply. For the LNG-fueled fleet to grow further, a number of issues are to be addressed: limited number of world-wide bunkering terminals infrastructure, lack of regulations and standards, costs and technologies (LNG-fueled vessel costs are 30-40 percent more than oil-based). A favorable HFO/MGO to LNG price differential should also be there for the life-time of a vessel. Payback time on the investment to reconfigure a ship for LNG versus gasoil are almost identical to the case of installing scrubbers and using HFO. Capital costs to modify for LNG are $1.7 million higher than for scrubbers. Clearly, investing in LNG for existing oil-based engine vessel over scrubbers with all the LNG hurdles is likely to be limited and will not play a big role.


Impact on Canadian Crude What are the implications for Canadian heavy crude production? The answer deserves a thorough study for the importance to the Canadian energy economy. CERI has conducted a high level analysis to identify the volume of Canadian crude that yields fuel oils with sulphur levels higher than 0.5 percent and thus potentially be at risk. In the first quarter of 2016,8 Canada produced 4.04 MMbpd, 47 percent or 1.89 MMbpd of which was conventional heavy oil and non-upgraded bitumen. Ninety-one percent of heavy conventional and non-upgraded bitumen production, or 1.72 MMbpd, was exported to the United States, leaving 0.17 MMbpd for Canadian use, not including 2 thousand per day of non-US exports. Most of Canadian exports to the US goes primarily to Midwest and Gulf of Mexico refineries (87 percent in 1Q 2016). In 2016, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported residual fuel oil yields of 2.5 percent at the national level and distillate fuel oil – 29 percent. Seventy-one percent of US refining capacity is equipped with either cokers, or hydrocrackers and/or desulfurization units, which enables deep conversion and low yields of residual fuels. Fuel oil production is so low that the US has to import fuel oil at a rate of 262 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd) (March 2016), making up almost 40 percent of all supply.

Three quarters of all US residual oil sales went to vessels bunkering in 2014; depending on the number of ports and marine traffic, this proportion varies from one PADD region to another; East, West and Gulf of Mexico are predominant suppliers. Residual oil output with less than 0.31 percent sulphur content, which will ensure compliance with new IMO regulations, varies from 7 percent to 18 percent in two major target regions that import Canadian heavies – PADD 2 and PADD 4 (see Table 1). Thus, in 1Q 2016, out of 1.72 MMbpd of Canadian exported heavy crude, 45 Mbpd of residual fuel oil was produced (accounting for 6.7 percent of total US supply), 16.2 Mbpd of which went to bunkering. Only 23 percent of 16 Mbpd is fully IMO-compliant for ECA application.9 Based on yields per region, the amount of non-compliant heavy fuel translates to up to 390 Mbpd of Canadian heavy oil export at potential risk. On the Canadian side, 170 Mbpd of heavy oil will yield on average 11.5 Mbpd of heavy fuel oil. According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, 28 percent of heavy fuel oil went to marine bunkering in 2014. If we assume that the ratio remains today, only 3.3 Mbpd are at risk of not being sold to the bunkering market, translating to 48.2 Mbpd of crude. In total, up to 438.2 Mbpd of Canadian heavy oil, including non-upgraded bitumen with high sulphur content, can be negatively impacted in 2020.

Table 1: Canadian Heavy Oil Exports, Refining and Bunkering Consumption in the US

Region Heavy Oil Export (bpd)

Export per PADD (%)

Residual Oil Yield (%)

% of Residual with Sulphur (0.31% or less)

% of Residual in Region Sold for Bunkering

Residual Oil for Bunkering (bpd)

Residual Oil for Bunkering >0.31% Sulphur (bpd)

PADD 1 47,274 2.8% 6.3% 18.9% 69% 2 063.2 1 501.1

PADD 2 1,250,458 72.9% 2.4% 7.0% 20% 6 014.8 3 950.1

PADD 3 240,268 14.0% 2.8% 17.9% 91% 6 203.7 4 986.2

PADD 4 143,845 8.4% 2.0% 42.9% 0% 0.0 0.0

PADD 5 33,603 2.0% 8.0% 0.1% 71% 1 912.1 1 908.8

Total 1,715,448 100.0% 16,194 12,346

Source: CERI calculations based on NEB, U.S. EIA data


Endnotes 1IEA Mid-term Oil Market Report, 2016 2http://www.turnermason.com/index.php/it-aint-heavy-its-my-bunker-part-4-what-do-impending-new-bunker-specs-mean-for-refiners/ 3CERI Study No. 157, “Heavy Barrel Competition in the US Gulf Coast: Can Canadian Barrels Compete?”. May 2016 4Ibid. 5IEA Mid-term Oil Market Report, 2016 6In October price difference for Rotterdam between MGO (max. 1.5% sulphur) and IFO 380 (max. 3.5% sulphur.) (IFO has 88% of residual oil) was 190$; MGO (max. 1.5% sulphur) and heavy fuel oil (max. 1% sulphur.) was $155/t 7http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/894372-dupont-20-of-the-global-fleet-could-have-scrubbers-installed-by-2025 8For further calculations 1Q of 2016 was chosen as baseline for availability of data. Calculations by CERI based on NEB, StatsCan, and US EIA data. 9Or less, since there are some compliant unaccounted barrels in the range of 0.31-0.5% sulphur content residual oil, not available from statistics.

http://www.turnermason.com/index.php/it-aint-heavy-its-my-bunker-part-4-what-do-impending-new-bunker-specs-mean-for-refiners/



http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/894372-dupont-20-of-the-global-fleet-could-have-scrubbers-installed-by-2025

http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/894372-dupont-20-of-the-global-fleet-could-have-scrubbers-installed-by-2025


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an

d


World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

World Demand 93.2 95.0 96.3 97.5 94.0 94.5 96.0 95.6 95.5 95.7 96.9 97.1 96.7 96.9 98.1 98.3

OECD 45.8 46.4 46.5 46.5 46.6 45.6 46.9 46.4 46.7 46.0 47.0 46.6 46.8 46.0 46.8 46.6

non-OECD 47.4 48.7 49.7 51.0 47.4 48.9 49.2 49.2 48.8 49.7 49.9 50.5 50.0 50.9 51.3 51.7

World Supply 93.7 96.6 96.7 97.4 95.2 96.5 97.2 97.4 96.6 96.0 97.1 97.1 96.8 97.2 97.9 97.8

Non-OPEC 56.1 57.6 56.7 57.2 57.2 57.3 57.7 57.9 57.0 56.0 56.7 57.0 56.8 57.0 57.5 57.4

OPEC NGLs 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

OPEC Crude 27.7 28.3 28.8 28.8 31.5 32.5 32.7 32.7 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.1 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.4

Supply - Demand1 0.5 1.6 0.4 -0.1 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.5

OECD

Stocks (MMbbls) 2712 2815 2905 2984 3015 3046 3052 3068 3069 3073 3087 3080

Days Cover 58 62 62 64 65 66 65 66 66 67 66 66

2014 2015 2016 2017 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

High Price Case 52.80 56.65 52.80 55.00 56.10 57.20 58.30

Reference Case 93.28 48.71 42.95 51.50 42.03 33.41 45.52 44.88 48.00 50.00 51.00 52.00 53.00

Low Price Case 40.80 43.78 40.80 42.50 43.35 44.20 45.05

Sustainable

Capacity Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

Saudi Arabia 12.20 10.60 10.61 10.55 1.60 1.59 1.65

Iran 3.70 3.67 3.68 3.72 0.03 0.02 -0.02

UAE 2.95 3.09 3.10 3.08 -0.14 -0.15 -0.13

Kuwait 2.87 2.91 2.90 2.93 -0.04 -0.03 -0.06

Qatar 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.62 0.02 0.05 0.05

Angola 1.81 1.76 1.69 1.52 0.05 0.12 0.29

Nigeria 1.85 1.37 1.39 1.57 0.48 0.46 0.28

Libya 0.40 0.28 0.36 0.51 0.12 0.04 -0.11

Algeria 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ecuador 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.00 -0.01 -0.01

Venezuela 2.35 2.14 2.13 2.12 0.21 0.22 0.23

Indonesia 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00

Gabon 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.02

OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.43 29.09 29.11 29.24 2.34 2.32 2.19

Iraq1 4.40 4.40 4.49 4.59 0.00 -0.09 -0.19

Total OPEC 35.60 33.49 33.60 33.83 2.11 2.00 1.77

Production Spare Capacity vs Production


Data Appendix


A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-

tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip

Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward

prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 96.82 97.37 97.01 97.45 -0.12

2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54

2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78

3Q 2015 50.39 50.63 53.14 54.10 -0.42

4Q 2015 43.92 44.17 44.89 47.38 -0.70

1Q 2016 30.92 31.19 34.29 38.10 -1.44

2Q 2016 43.94 43.15 40.39 43.31 -1.24

3Q 2016 46.95 47.20 46.46 48.68 -0.65

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.8% -6.8% -12.6% -10.0%

Nov-15 45.55 46.23 46.32 48.55 -0.51

Dec-15 40.39 40.56 43.88 46.86 -1.03

Jan-16 34.74 34.81 38.61 42.22 -1.39

Feb-16 26.55 28.14 33.74 36.96 -1.10

Mar-16 31.48 30.63 30.52 35.13 -1.83

Apr-16 41.45 40.27 36.44 40.15 -1.69

May-16 42.63 41.16 39.32 42.33 -1.30

Jun-16 47.75 48.03 45.43 47.45 -0.72

Jul-16 48.85 48.73 49.03 50.88 -0.55

Aug-16 44.94 44.94 46.78 49.09 -0.71

Sep-16 47.05 47.93 43.57 46.05 -0.70

Oct-16 43.44 43.26 45.39 47.67 -0.62

Nov-16 50.43 50.77 48.64 50.65 -0.49

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.7% 9.8% 5.0% 4.3%

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 284.3 285.6 284.5 274.2 0.5 298.2 299.0 298.9 304.9 -0.5

2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4

2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5

3Q 2015 185.7 180.9 186.1 156.3 8.6 171.5 167.9 170.0 179.2 -1.1

4Q 2015 138.4 137.2 135.5 127.8 1.9 145.0 144.9 148.7 159.5 -2.3

1Q 2016 114.0 112.5 111.5 125.9 -9.2 107.7 106.9 107.4 117.8 -2.0

2Q 2016 154.5 155.4 148.9 142.9 -2.1 135.4 135.1 128.8 137.4 -1.0

3Q 2016 141.1 142.3 145.0 130.1 2.1 139.0 141.1 143.3 153.3 -1.8

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -24.0% -21.3% -22.1% -16.8% -18.9% -16.0% -15.7% -14.5%

Nov-15 140.5 136.8 134.9 128.3 1.8 149.9 148.6 149.9 161.4 -2.6

Dec-15 135.9 138.2 133.5 127.3 2.1 133.7 136.4 142.4 152.6 -2.3

Jan-16 126.7 125.8 125.4 137.4 -1.0 110.1 110.3 117.9 129.9 -3.1

Feb-16 110.3 107.6 109.4 123.6 -2.6 105.5 103.7 100.1 109.8 -1.7

Mar-16 105.0 104.1 99.5 116.7 -24.1 107.6 106.6 104.3 113.9 -1.3

Apr-16 143.6 145.3 139.9 137.4 -4.3 118.5 116.7 119.3 128.5 -1.2

May-16 158.5 158.8 148.8 142.0 -1.5 137.8 138.8 124.9 133.7 -1.0

Jun-16 161.5 162.2 158.1 149.4 -0.7 149.8 149.8 142.1 150.1 -0.7

Jul-16 150.1 151.2 155.4 140.3 -0.9 148.5 149.7 150.1 158.6 -0.9

Aug-16 132.1 131.6 138.0 124.5 -0.6 127.6 128.0 138.5 149.8 -2.5

Sep-16 141.2 144.2 141.6 125.6 7.9 141.0 145.6 141.5 151.4 -1.9

Oct-16 148.7 147.7 139.2 127.5 2.7 152.8 151.0 143.3 152.6 -1.4

Nov-16 145.0 146.9 149.0 141.6 1.5 149.6 153.6 156.6 166.2 -1.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% 7.3% 10.4% 10.4% -0.2% 3.4% 4.4% 3.0%


A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude

blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal;

Natural Resources Canada.

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas

2013 106.60 105.51 105.57 108.69 109.89 108.05 96.71 105.10 97.77 105.16 111.41 107.32

2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63

2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24

3Q 2015 49.01 49.80 49.92 50.29 50.93 49.75 37.94 47.70 42.85 49.96 50.62 45.46

4Q 2015 39.90 40.74 40.93 43.67 44.38 42.50 30.59 37.83 36.16 42.62 44.04 38.82

1Q 2016 29.95 30.47 31.44 33.91 34.39 32.30 22.67 27.89 26.73 31.39 33.72 31.64

2Q 2016 42.66 43.18 43.47 45.53 46.13 43.86 33.78 40.81 40.34 43.47 45.61 46.24

3Q 2016 43.10 43.30 43.83 45.85 45.96 44.10 36.85 41.49 40.93 44.61 46.47 41.13

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -13.1% -12.2% -8.8% -9.8% -11.4% -2.9% -13.0% -4.5% -10.7% -8.2% -9.5%

Oct-15 45.37 45.84 46.07 48.56 49.23 47.49 35.48 43.61 39.91 46.90 49.16 42.13

Nov-15 40.64 41.79 42.10 44.30 45.10 43.05 31.87 38.39 36.40 43.29 44.81 40.79

Dec-15 33.70 34.59 34.61 38.16 38.80 36.97 24.42 31.49 32.18 37.68 38.16 33.53

Jan-16 26.35 26.81 27.48 30.75 31.45 29.15 20.80 23.92 24.03 30.03 30.40 30.80

Feb-16 28.77 29.44 30.37 32.46 32.86 30.87 21.38 26.77 24.70 28.68 32.24 29.49

Mar-16 34.74 35.15 36.46 38.51 38.86 36.87 25.83 32.99 31.45 35.45 38.53 34.62

Apr-16 38.22 39.00 39.43 41.48 42.15 39.89 28.84 36.33 35.04 38.14 41.51 38.52

May-16 43.48 44.29 44.37 46.83 47.70 45.08 34.28 41.60 41.96 44.76 46.85 48.64

Jun-16 46.28 46.25 46.61 48.28 48.54 46.60 38.22 44.50 44.03 47.51 48.48 51.56

Jul-16 43.14 42.64 43.45 45.00 44.99 43.76 36.71 41.37 40.72 45.07 45.30 41.84

Aug-16 43.47 43.58 44.02 45.85 45.79 44.06 36.46 41.88 40.84 44.22 46.35 41.26

Sep-16 42.70 43.67 44.01 46.69 47.10 44.48 37.38 41.22 41.22 44.55 47.77 40.28

Oct-16 48.26 48.94 47.07 49.74 50.15 48.24 42.36 47.04 45.98 49.91 50.83 45.20

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.4% 6.8% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% 19.4% 7.9% 15.2% 6.4% 3.4% 7.3%

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy

ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS

Okla.

Sw.

Kans.

Sw.

Mich.

So.

Wyo.

Sw.

CDN

Sweet2 HH3

2013 100.20 106.62 99.05 94.46 89.46 87.65 94.46 93.48 86.46 90.27 90.13 76.52

2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 82.59 73.85

2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71

3Q 2015 57.69 47.85 40.37 42.58 37.58 36.33 42.58 41.50 34.58 39.26 41.85 33.90

4Q 2015 39.88 41.77 34.08 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.94 38.97 27.77

1Q 2016 34.14 33.54 27.08 31.67 26.67 25.42 31.67 30.75 23.67 30.20 28.28 18.11

2Q 2016 30.42 45.46 38.30 44.25 39.25 38.00 44.25 43.17 36.25 43.88 42.69 32.65

3Q 2016 30.15 46.40 36.65 42.33 37.33 36.08 42.33 41.33 34.33 42.08 41.64 30.77

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -47.7% -3.0% -9.2% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.4% -0.7% 7.2% -0.5% -9.2%

Oct-15 41.44 47.09 38.85 43.00 38.00 36.75 43.00 42.00 35.00 40.84 43.88 31.40

Nov-15 40.48 42.46 33.85 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.96 39.83 28.25

Dec-15 37.72 35.76 29.55 33.50 28.50 27.25 33.50 32.50 25.50 31.01 33.41 23.80

Jan-16 37.72 31.62 24.85 30.00 25.00 23.75 30.00 29.00 22.00 27.87 30.49 13.73

Feb-16 41.77 31.78 25.15 29.25 24.25 23.00 29.25 28.25 21.25 27.03 27.94 22.19

Mar-16 22.94 37.21 31.25 35.75 30.75 29.50 35.75 35.00 27.75 35.71 26.19 18.50

Apr-16 36.36 44.67 37.65 42.50 37.50 36.25 42.50 41.50 34.50 42.17 36.83 27.16

May-16 30.62 46.83 40.25 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 44.58 34.63

Jun-16 24.29 44.89 37.00 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.25 36.50 43.89 46.61 36.13

Jul-16 22.77 40.65 32.30 38.00 33.00 31.75 38.00 37.00 30.00 37.85 41.01 30.55

Aug-16 30.62 49.35 38.60 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 43.25 36.00 43.89 41.35 30.34

Sep-16 37.05 49.20 39.05 45.00 40.00 38.75 45.00 43.75 37.00 44.49 42.57 31.41

Oct-16 36.98 51.31 42.05 47.25 42.25 41.00 47.25 46.25 39.25 47.10 46.81 35.89

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.8% 9.0% 8.2% 9.9% 11.2% 11.6% 9.9% 10.1% 12.1% 15.3% 6.7% 14.3%


A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny

Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour

Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.

CDN

Sweet2 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.

2013 106.60 103.96 2.64 105.16 97.74 7.42 90.13 76.52 13.61 87.65 89.46 -1.81

2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 85.88 7.69 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25

2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.02 7.12 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25

3Q 2015 49.01 47.25 1.76 49.96 43.53 6.44 41.85 33.90 7.95 36.33 37.58 -1.25

4Q 2015 39.90 36.72 3.18 42.62 34.41 8.21 38.97 27.77 11.21 32.00 33.25 -1.25

1Q 2016 29.95 27.14 2.82 31.39 26.09 5.30 28.28 18.11 10.17 25.42 26.67 -1.25

2Q 2016 42.66 40.10 2.56 43.47 37.49 5.98 42.69 32.65 10.04 38.00 39.25 -1.25

3Q 2016 43.10 40.58 2.52 44.61 39.38 5.23 41.64 30.77 10.88 36.08 37.33 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -14.1% -10.7% -9.5% -0.5% -9.2% -0.7% -0.7%

Oct-15 45.37 43.01 2.36 46.90 39.14 7.76 43.88 31.40 12.48 36.75 38.00 -1.25

Nov-15 40.64 37.00 3.64 43.29 35.36 7.93 39.83 28.25 11.58 32.00 33.25 -1.25

Dec-15 33.70 30.15 3.55 37.68 28.74 8.94 33.41 23.80 9.61 27.25 28.50 -1.25

Jan-16 26.35 22.50 3.85 30.03 24.21 5.82 30.49 13.73 16.76 23.75 25.00 -1.25

Feb-16 28.77 26.15 2.62 28.68 24.84 3.84 27.94 22.19 5.75 23.00 24.25 -1.25

Mar-16 34.74 32.76 1.98 35.45 29.22 6.23 26.19 18.50 7.69 29.50 30.75 -1.25

Apr-16 38.22 35.92 2.30 38.14 30.95 7.19 36.83 27.16 9.67 36.25 37.50 -1.25

May-16 43.48 40.69 2.79 44.76 39.08 5.68 44.58 34.63 9.95 39.50 40.75 -1.25

Jun-16 46.28 43.68 2.60 47.51 42.43 5.08 46.61 36.13 10.48 38.25 39.50 -1.25

Jul-16 43.14 40.40 2.74 45.07 40.25 4.82 41.01 30.55 10.47 31.75 33.00 -1.25

Aug-16 43.47 41.00 2.47 44.22 38.76 5.46 41.35 30.34 11.01 37.75 39.00 -1.25

Sep-16 42.70 40.34 2.36 44.55 39.14 5.41 42.57 31.41 11.16 38.75 40.00 -1.25

Oct-16 48.26 46.25 2.01 49.91 43.90 6.01 46.81 35.89 10.92 41.00 42.25 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.4% 7.5% 6.4% 12.2% 6.7% 14.3% 11.6% 11.2%

Spot Prices Differentials

WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2013 98.03 108.68 105.44 108.39 105.94 -11.87 -8.63 -11.58 -9.12

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34

2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16

3Q 2015 46.47 50.44 50.01 49.75 48.16 -0.05 0.38 0.64 2.23

4Q 2015 42.03 43.71 40.71 42.30 39.72 0.21 3.21 1.62 4.20

1Q 2016 33.41 33.95 30.59 32.34 29.96 -3.03 0.33 -1.42 0.97

2Q 2016 45.52 45.54 43.23 43.86 42.30 -1.60 0.71 0.08 1.64

3Q 2016 44.88 45.80 43.28 44.05 42.89 1.15 3.67 2.90 4.06

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.4% -9.2% -13.5% -11.5% -10.9%

Oct-15 46.20 48.51 45.92 47.31 45.02 -2.96 -0.37 -1.76 0.53

Nov-15 42.75 44.26 41.76 42.37 40.50 -3.87 -1.37 -1.98 -0.11

Dec-15 37.24 38.13 34.55 36.98 33.64 -3.39 0.19 -2.24 1.10

Jan-16 31.57 30.75 26.81 29.15 26.50 -4.20 -0.26 -2.60 0.05

Feb-16 30.38 32.46 29.33 30.87 28.72 -0.98 2.15 0.61 2.76

Mar-16 37.76 38.49 35.12 36.85 34.65 2.96 6.33 4.60 6.80

Apr-16 40.95 41.48 39.00 39.89 37.86 1.15 3.63 2.74 4.77

May-16 46.72 46.79 44.30 45.01 43.21 0.96 3.45 2.74 4.54

Jun-16 48.74 48.28 46.25 46.60 45.84 0.57 2.60 2.25 3.01

Jul-16 44.69 45.00 42.54 43.76 42.68 -0.06 2.40 1.18 2.26

Aug-16 44.75 45.68 43.67 43.90 43.10 1.37 3.38 3.15 3.95

Sep-16 45.20 46.69 43.58 44.48 42.89 -3.25 -0.14 -1.04 0.55

Oct-16 49.89 49.74 48.94 48.24 47.87 0.69 1.49 2.19 2.56

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.0% 2.5% 6.6% 2.0% 6.3%


A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status

Report.

Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes

Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2013 114.66 92.96 122.67 116.69 123.40 91.47 118.98 123.24 96.39

2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22

2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55

3Q 2015 69.59 38.07 60.55 70.31 63.48 35.94 69.27 60.75 41.10

4Q 2015 52.06 29.74 53.13 54.42 53.23 26.49 59.34 54.36 33.25

1Q 2016 44.62 21.14 41.66 43.78 40.63 18.71 49.31 40.27 24.87

2Q 2016 61.70 31.03 53.43 58.37 54.51 29.31 57.58 53.76 33.89

3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -14.3% -8.4% -10.1% -22.1% -14.8% -4.3% -21.0% -10.9% -7.8%

Oct-15 54.57 34.66 58.40 56.78 58.97 32.12 63.46 59.09 37.30

Nov-15 52.06 31.77 55.75 56.64 55.44 27.75 58.92 57.41 35.26

Dec-15 49.54 23.08 45.61 49.73 44.98 19.33 55.60 46.86 27.38

Jan-16 42.89 19.09 38.96 44.86 37.05 15.54 50.33 36.16 23.14

Feb-16 39.22 20.41 40.67 40.93 39.12 18.46 44.33 38.51 23.65

Mar-16 51.03 23.58 44.88 45.60 45.55 21.97 52.68 45.52 27.51

Apr-16 58.77 25.95 47.55 55.51 48.79 24.39 54.49 48.08 29.65

May-16 62.10 31.85 54.36 58.93 55.91 30.18 59.14 54.86 34.58

Jun-16 64.11 35.11 58.16 60.60 58.69 33.23 59.05 58.14 37.27

Jul-16 58.66 33.87 52.82 52.73 53.17 33.19 51.87 54.27 37.06

Aug-16 61.25 34.40 54.80 54.45 53.88 33.88 54.18 53.47 37.21

Sep-16 58.73 36.36 55.58 57.00 55.21 36.04 58.00 54.62 39.35

Oct-16 62.21 40.08 60.68 60.51 60.91 39.26 62.99 61.23 43.76

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.0% 15.6% 3.9% 6.6% 3.3% 22.2% -0.7% 3.6% 17.3%

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.

2013 281.29 292.59 301.40 269.60 292.34 296.78 292.19 301.28

2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58

2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03

3Q 2015 164.67 145.57 157.20 159.57 144.43 151.03 215.10 157.90

4Q 2015 135.00 125.23 134.10 124.47 126.63 128.60 160.77 140.13

1Q 2016 112.67 101.43 106.83 105.70 99.07 102.80 127.27 108.63

2Q 2016 150.67 132.00 138.70 141.93 127.60 134.57 157.43 143.37

3Q 2016 139.03 132.27 139.57 139.33 129.53 137.40 145.07 141.83

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -15.6% -9.1% -11.2% -12.7% -10.3% -9.0% -32.6% -10.2%

Oct-15 139.70 140.40 147.20 130.70 139.10 141.80 166.90 155.30

Nov-15 137.70 131.60 141.30 124.60 132.60 135.10 150.70 143.80

Dec-15 127.60 103.70 113.80 118.10 108.20 108.90 164.70 121.30

Jan-16 112.10 93.90 97.90 102.10 93.00 95.80 132.00 103.60

Feb-16 105.80 97.20 103.60 93.60 97.30 99.90 97.00 103.30

Mar-16 120.10 113.20 119.00 121.40 106.90 112.70 152.80 119.00

Apr-16 144.80 118.80 124.70 133.70 114.70 119.90 155.10 129.60

May-16 156.60 135.60 142.30 143.40 129.90 137.80 153.00 145.80

Jun-16 150.60 141.60 149.10 148.70 138.20 146.00 164.20 154.70

Jul-16 135.40 129.20 137.00 135.80 127.20 134.30 141.20 140.00

Aug-16 137.90 132.50 139.90 142.90 129.50 137.90 138.80 140.00

Sep-16 143.80 135.10 141.80 139.30 131.90 140.00 155.20 145.50

Oct-16 152.20 148.80 155.90 148.90 145.70 154.40 161.90 163.00

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.9% 6.0% 5.9% 13.9% 4.7% 8.9% -3.0% 5.0%


B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on

historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-

es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes

crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World

Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3

Demand

2011 24.0 14.3 8.2 46.4 19.3 11.4 4.6 35.3 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.5

2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7

2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.8 37.5 5.3 3.1 8.5 92.0

2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.3 12.2 4.9 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.2

2015 24.6 13.7 8.0 46.4 22.5 12.2 4.9 39.6 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0

3Q 2014 24.4 13.9 7.7 45.9 20.8 12.5 5.1 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.3

4Q 2014 24.6 13.5 8.3 46.4 21.8 12.0 5.0 38.8 5.5 3.2 8.9 94.1

1Q 2015 24.5 13.5 8.7 46.6 22.1 11.5 4.6 38.2 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.0

2Q 2015 24.4 13.6 7.6 45.6 22.6 12.4 4.9 39.9 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.5

3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.4 12.7 5.1 40.2 5.8 3.4 9.2 96.0

4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.4 22.9 12.2 5.0 40.1 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.6

1Q 2016 24.5 13.6 8.5 46.7 23.2 11.3 4.9 39.4 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.5

2Q 2016 24.4 13.9 7.6 46.0 23.3 12.0 4.9 40.2 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.7

3Q 2016 24.8 14.3 7.8 47.0 22.8 12.4 5.2 40.4 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.9

Supply

2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.7 9.6 35.8 88.6

2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9

2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 6.9 7.7 13.8 29.4 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.4

2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 6.9 7.9 13.9 29.7 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.8

2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.1 8.1 14.0 30.2 28.2 8.7 39.0 96.6

3Q 2014 19.3 3.1 0.5 24.1 6.8 8.2 13.8 29.8 26.9 9.3 37.0 94.3

4Q 2014 19.9 3.4 0.5 25.0 7.1 8.3 13.9 30.3 26.8 9.4 37.0 95.5

1Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.4 25.1 7.1 8.1 14.0 30.2 27.3 8.8 36.9 95.2

2Q 2015 19.7 3.5 0.4 24.8 7.2 8.1 14.0 30.3 28.3 8.9 38.0 96.5

3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.0 7.9 13.9 29.8 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2

4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.1 7.9 14.1 30.1 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4

1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.2 7.0 7.8 14.2 30.1 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6

2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.0 6.8 7.7 14.0 29.6 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.0

3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 6.6 8.0 14.0 29.7 30.6 7.8 40.5 97.2

Balance

2011 -9.4 -10.5 -7.6 -26.3 -11.6 -2.9 9.0 -4.6 20.8 6.7 28.0 -0.9

2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -12.9 -4.0 9.2 -6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2

2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.8 -4.3 9.0 -8.1 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.6

2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -14.4 -4.3 9.0 -8.7 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.6

2015 -4.6 -10.2 -7.5 -21.3 -15.4 -4.1 9.1 -9.4 22.5 5.3 29.8 1.6

3Q 2014 -5.1 -10.8 -7.2 -21.8 -14.0 -4.3 8.7 -8.6 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.0

4Q 2014 -4.7 -10.1 -7.8 -21.4 -14.7 -3.7 8.9 -8.5 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.4

1Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -8.3 -21.5 -15.0 -3.4 9.4 -8.0 21.5 5.4 27.7 1.2

2Q 2015 -4.7 -10.1 -7.2 -20.8 -15.4 -4.3 9.1 -9.5 22.5 5.5 28.8 2.0

3Q 2015 -4.9 -10.8 -7.2 -21.7 -15.4 -4.8 8.8 -10.4 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.2

4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.0 -15.8 -4.3 9.1 -10.0 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.8

1Q 2016 -4.6 -10.0 -8.1 -21.5 -16.2 -3.5 9.3 -9.3 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.1

2Q 2016 -5.4 -10.5 -7.2 -22.0 -16.5 -4.3 9.1 -10.6 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.3

3Q 2016 -5.5 -11.0 -7.4 -22.7 -16.2 -4.4 8.8 -10.7 24.6 4.3 30.8 0.3


B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve

estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All

stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.


Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 17.14 3.32 0.48 20.94 7.73 7.97 13.80 29.50 26.18 9.80 36.72 87.16

2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29

2015 19.99 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.09 8.04 14.00 29.14 28.23 8.65 39.01 92.07

3Q 2015 20.05 3.35 0.50 23.91 7.01 8.21 13.92 29.15 28.66 8.63 39.13 92.19

4Q 2015 20.08 3.60 0.47 24.15 7.08 8.16 14.06 29.30 28.62 8.67 39.15 92.60

1Q 2016 19.89 3.63 0.43 23.96 6.96 7.75 14.21 28.92 28.94 8.50 39.60 92.48

2Q 2016 18.96 3.44 0.41 22.82 6.77 7.76 14.01 28.54 29.80 8.03 39.92 91.28

3Q 2016 19.33 3.33 0.45 23.10 6.62 8.00 13.96 28.57 30.57 7.77 40.45 92.12

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.6% -0.6% -10.0% -3.4% -5.6% -2.6% 0.3% -2.0% 6.7% -9.9% 3.4% -0.1%

Oct-15 19.93 3.53 0.46 23.93 7.05 8.16 13.94 29.15 28.46 8.76 39.09 92.17

Nov-15 20.06 3.60 0.49 24.15 7.18 8.15 14.07 29.40 28.71 8.70 39.23 92.78

Dec-15 20.01 3.65 0.47 24.13 7.09 8.33 14.08 29.48 28.69 8.62 39.15 92.76

Jan-16 19.83 3.55 0.44 23.83 6.96 8.00 14.19 29.15 29.02 8.59 39.47 92.45

Feb-16 19.85 3.62 0.44 23.90 6.95 7.97 14.21 29.13 28.90 8.53 39.31 92.34

Mar-16 19.86 3.59 0.43 23.88 6.86 7.78 14.20 28.84 28.85 8.44 39.20 91.92

Apr-16 19.25 3.57 0.42 23.24 6.78 7.57 14.05 28.41 29.40 8.27 39.77 91.42

May-16 18.56 3.48 0.42 22.46 6.73 7.81 14.02 28.56 29.66 7.90 39.63 90.65

Jun-16 18.73 3.27 0.43 22.43 6.80 7.92 14.09 28.80 30.05 7.96 40.11 91.34

Jul-16 19.26 3.64 0.46 23.36 6.69 7.94 14.11 28.73 30.45 7.80 40.37 92.46

Aug-16 19.35 3.35 0.45 23.15 6.57 7.98 13.60 28.14 30.56 7.74 40.43 91.72

Sep-16 19.21 2.98 0.43 22.62 6.61 8.09 14.17 28.86 30.64 7.85 40.54 92.02

Oct-16 19.34 3.19 0.44 22.97 6.62 8.07 14.45 29.14 30.74 8.23 40.81 92.92

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.0% -9.6% -4.3% -4.0% -6.1% -1.1% 3.7% 0.0% 8.0% -6.1% 4.4% 0.8%

R/P Ratio2 32.9 10.9 25.5 29.7 14.4 22.9 26.9 23.0 71.3 133.1 80.5 50.1

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2013 500 670 1,315 307 497 869 145 170 382 952 1,337 2,566

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

3Q 2015 617 763 1,572 339 559 967 202 176 445 1,158 1,498 2,984

4Q 2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

1Q 2016 689 758 1,620 349 586 1,004 196 166 421 1,235 1,509 3,046

2Q 2016 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052

3Q 2016 623 804 1,619 356 574 999 200 189 450 1,179 1,566 3,068

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.1% 5.3% 3.0% 4.9% 2.7% 3.2% -1.0% 7.3% 1.2% 1.8% 4.6% 2.8%

Sep-15 617 763 1,572 339 559 967 202 176 445 1,158 1,498 2,984

Oct-15 642 745 1,576 347 556 972 205 169 439 1,194 1,469 2,987

Nov-15 647 762 1,593 346 568 980 191 170 428 1,183 1,500 3,001

Dec-15 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015

Jan-16 661 780 1,614 358 589 1,015 192 167 425 1,210 1,536 3,054

Feb-16 676 765 1,611 354 593 1,020 196 163 422 1,225 1,522 3,052

Mar-16 689 758 1,620 349 586 1,004 196 166 421 1,235 1,509 3,046

Apr-16 661 762 1,599 352 584 1,006 194 164 420 1,207 1,510 3,025

May-16 656 764 1,602 357 589 1,014 203 171 434 1,215 1,525 3,050

Jun-16 650 773 1,609 357 581 1,005 202 175 438 1,208 1,529 3,052

Jul-16 646 795 1,636 364 592 1,024 197 184 442 1,206 1,571 3,102

Aug-16 638 801 1,634 354 584 1,008 189 193 444 1,181 1,578 3,085

Sep-16 623 804 1,619 356 574 999 200 189 450 1,179 1,566 3,068

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.1% 5.3% 3.0% 4.9% 2.7% 3.2% -1.0% 7.3% 1.2% 1.8% 4.6% 2.8%


B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on

spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12

Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Indonesia Total1 Iraq2

2013 9.66 2.68 2.76 2.81 0.73 1.72 1.95 0.90 1.15 2.50 0.52 0.87 27.38 3.08

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.70 27.65 3.33

2015 10.17 2.86 2.90 2.79 0.66 1.76 1.80 0.40 1.11 2.40 0.54 0.69 28.3 4.02

3Q 2015 10.29 2.87 2.92 2.78 0.64 1.77 1.80 0.38 1.12 2.40 0.53 0.69 28.19 4.25

4Q 2015 10.18 2.89 2.89 2.78 0.66 1.76 1.84 0.40 1.11 2.38 0.54 0.69 28.11 4.28

1Q 2016 10.21 3.15 2.81 2.83 0.66 1.77 1.76 0.36 1.10 2.34 0.54 0.71 28.48 4.28

2Q 2016 10.33 3.59 2.98 2.82 0.66 1.74 1.50 0.32 1.09 2.23 0.55 0.74 28.76 4.31

3Q 2016 10.62 3.66 3.09 2.89 0.65 1.74 1.37 0.31 1.12 2.14 0.55 0.74 29.09 4.42

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% 27.5% 5.8% 4.0% 1.6% -1.7% -23.9% -18.4% 0.0% -10.8% 3.8% 7.2% 3.2% 4.0%

Oct-15 10.21 2.88 2.89 2.73 0.67 1.78 1.90 0.43 1.11 2.38 0.53 0.67 28.18 4.17

Nov-15 10.19 2.87 2.89 2.80 0.68 1.74 1.84 0.39 1.11 2.40 0.54 0.69 28.14 4.33

Dec-15 10.14 2.91 2.89 2.81 0.64 1.75 1.80 0.38 1.11 2.37 0.54 0.70 28.04 4.35

Jan-16 10.21 3.00 2.93 2.83 0.64 1.75 1.85 0.38 1.10 2.35 0.53 0.70 28.27 4.43

Feb-16 10.22 3.20 2.78 2.83 0.67 1.76 1.76 0.37 1.10 2.37 0.55 0.71 28.32 4.22

Mar-16 10.19 3.26 2.73 2.83 0.67 1.80 1.68 0.34 1.11 2.35 0.55 0.73 28.24 4.19

Apr-16 10.22 3.56 2.82 2.73 0.66 1.75 1.62 0.35 1.09 2.30 0.54 0.73 28.59 4.36

May-16 10.25 3.61 2.91 2.85 0.66 1.72 1.44 0.28 1.09 2.22 0.55 0.74 28.54 4.27

Jun-16 10.50 3.62 3.01 2.87 0.66 1.74 1.51 0.32 1.10 2.16 0.55 0.74 29.00 4.25

Jul-16 10.65 3.63 3.08 2.87 0.66 1.76 1.39 0.30 1.11 2.15 0.55 0.74 29.11 4.32

Aug-16 10.60 3.67 3.09 2.91 0.65 1.76 1.37 0.28 1.12 2.14 0.55 0.74 29.09 4.40

Sep-16 10.61 3.68 3.10 2.90 0.62 1.69 1.39 0.36 1.12 2.13 0.56 0.74 29.11 4.49

Oct-16 10.55 3.72 3.08 2.93 0.62 1.52 1.57 0.51 1.12 2.12 0.56 0.74 29.24 4.59

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.3% 29.2% 6.6% 7.3% -7.5% -14.6% -17.4% 18.6% 0.9% -10.9% 5.7% 10.4% 3.8% 10.1%

Persian Gulf

Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD

Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2013 18.4 85.6 1.38 11.5 79.1 3.48 6.7 128.5 -1.63 36.6 82.5

2014 18.9 88.0 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 138.6 -1.98 36.8 83.9

2015 19.1 87.3 5.65 12.1 84.8 7.28 6.7 146.0 0.62 37.9 85.9

3Q 2015 19.5 89.1 7.30 12.4 86.8 8.91 6.7 146.4 -1.1 38.6 87.5

4Q 2015 19.1 87.2 3.49 12.3 85.9 5.09 6.7 144.8 0.6 38.0 86.1

1Q 2016 19.0 86.7 3.73 11.8 82.4 3.99 7.1 154.8 1.2 37.8 85.8

2Q 2016 18.9 86.5 4.70 11.4 79.9 4.42 6.7 146.6 -1.5 37.1 84.0

3Q 2016 19.2 87.8 5.33 12.3 85.9 3.55 6.7 146.2 0.0 38.2 86.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% -27.0% -1.1% -60.2% -0.1% -100.9% -1.1%

Sep-15 19.0 87.0 3.60 12.5 87.3 7.15 6.5 140.9 0.2 38.0 86.0

Oct-15 18.2 83.3 4.12 12.4 86.6 4.24 6.4 138.2 -0.8 36.9 83.7

Nov-15 19.3 88.1 3.60 12.2 85.2 6.65 6.6 143.5 1.8 38.0 86.2

Dec-15 19.7 90.1 2.76 12.3 86.0 4.38 7.0 152.6 0.7 39.0 88.4

Jan-16 19.0 87.0 4.27 12.0 84.2 5.50 7.1 154.8 2.8 38.2 86.5

Feb-16 18.8 85.8 3.13 11.7 82.3 3.66 7.3 157.8 0.9 37.8 85.6

Mar-16 19.1 87.3 3.78 11.5 80.6 2.80 7.0 151.7 -0.2 37.6 85.2

Apr-16 18.8 85.9 5.41 11.4 80.0 4.37 7.0 151.1 -1.5 37.2 84.2

May-16 18.8 85.7 4.30 11.3 79.0 4.05 6.8 146.9 -1.8 36.8 83.4

Jun-16 19.2 87.8 4.39 11.5 80.6 4.85 6.5 141.9 -1.3 37.2 84.4

Jul-16 19.4 88.7 4.58 12.3 86.3 3.02 6.8 147.4 0.1 38.5 87.3

Aug-16 19.4 88.5 6.00 12.5 87.3 3.43 6.8 148.2 -1.1 38.6 87.5

Sep-16 18.9 86.2 5.40 12.0 84.1 4.19 6.6 143.0 1.0 37.4 84.9

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.8% 50.0% -3.6% -41% 1.5% 395.2% -1.4%


C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-

es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-

conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

United States1 East Mid-West

Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 12.11 18.89 6.20 -0.13 0.19 5.23 -5.04 2.90 4.88 -1.97

2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56

2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38

2Q 2015 14.91 19.25 4.61 0.69 0.43 5.49 -5.06 3.64 4.99 -1.36

3Q 2015 14.85 19.67 4.73 0.33 0.42 5.54 -5.12 3.60 5.11 -1.50

4Q 2015 14.89 19.36 4.31 0.15 0.42 5.46 -5.05 3.74 4.97 -1.24

1Q 2016 14.72 19.45 4.98 0.41 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.69 5.03 -1.35

2Q 2016 14.65 19.43 4.69 0.27 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.67 5.09 -1.42

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.7% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9% -2.1% 0.9% 1.9%

Aug-15 14.91 19.81 5.20 0.73 0.42 5.61 -5.20 3.60 5.07 -1.47

Sep-15 14.83 19.23 4.45 0.33 0.41 5.42 -5.01 3.56 5.06 -1.51

Oct-15 14.90 19.35 4.17 0.26 0.41 5.50 -5.10 3.70 5.15 -1.44

Nov-15 14.92 19.19 4.31 0.42 0.41 5.27 -4.86 3.74 4.80 -1.06

Dec-15 14.86 19.54 4.45 -0.22 0.43 5.62 -5.18 3.76 4.97 -1.21

Jan-16 14.69 19.06 4.86 0.83 0.44 5.31 -4.86 3.66 5.04 -1.38

Feb-16 14.64 19.68 5.07 0.14 0.44 5.74 -5.30 3.69 5.03 -1.33

Mar-16 14.82 19.62 5.00 0.26 0.44 5.52 -5.08 3.71 5.04 -1.33

Apr-16 14.59 19.26 4.68 0.36 0.46 5.38 -4.92 3.62 5.02 -1.40

May-16 14.77 19.20 4.53 0.51 0.46 5.29 -4.82 3.68 4.97 -1.29

Jun-16 14.60 19.83 4.87 -0.06 0.45 5.47 -5.02 3.70 5.27 -1.57

Jul-16 14.62 19.71 5.30 0.50 0.50 5.25 -4.75 3.65 5.16 -1.51

Aug-16 14.47 20.13 5.20 0.01 0.51 5.55 -5.04 3.58 5.30 -1.72

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.9% 1.6% -0.1% 21.6% -1.1% -0.5% 4.5%

% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.5% 27.6% 24.8% 26.3%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products

Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 6.77 5.28 1.49 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.37 2.79 -1.42

2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43

2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59

2Q 2015 8.38 5.15 3.24 1.12 0.69 0.43 1.34 2.93 -1.58

3Q 2015 8.44 5.29 3.15 1.12 0.70 0.41 1.27 3.04 -1.77

4Q 2015 8.32 5.33 2.99 1.10 0.67 0.42 1.32 2.92 -1.60

1Q 2016 8.16 5.35 2.81 1.08 0.70 0.38 1.34 2.85 -1.50

2Q 2016 8.16 5.25 2.91 1.08 0.69 0.39 1.29 3.03 -1.74

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.6% 2.1% -3.5% -0.3% -4.2% 3.4%

Aug-15 8.54 5.33 3.21 1.12 0.74 0.38 1.23 3.06 -1.83

Sep-15 8.46 5.13 3.33 1.11 0.66 0.45 1.30 2.95 -1.65

Oct-15 8.39 5.05 3.34 1.10 0.69 0.42 1.31 2.96 -1.66

Nov-15 8.33 5.62 2.71 1.11 0.66 0.44 1.33 2.83 -1.50

Dec-15 8.25 5.33 2.92 1.08 0.67 0.41 1.33 2.96 -1.63

Jan-16 8.16 5.36 2.80 1.07 0.66 0.41 1.36 2.69 -1.33

Feb-16 8.09 5.27 2.82 1.08 0.73 0.35 1.34 2.91 -1.57

Mar-16 8.23 5.42 2.81 1.11 0.71 0.40 1.33 2.93 -1.61

Apr-16 8.15 5.25 2.90 1.08 0.63 0.45 1.29 2.99 -1.70

May-16 8.23 5.25 2.98 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.99 -1.67

Jun-16 8.11 5.26 2.85 1.07 0.73 0.34 1.26 3.11 -1.85

Jul-16 8.14 5.43 2.71 1.05 0.73 0.33 1.27 3.15 -1.88

Aug-16 8.08 5.28 2.80 1.03 0.78 0.25 1.28 3.23 -1.95

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.5% -1.1% -8.2% 5.1% 4.1% 5.6%

% of Total2 55.8% 26.2% 7.1% 3.9% 8.8% 16.0%


C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.

Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic

Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply

Monthly.

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum

Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2013 8.77 1.42 3.84 0.32 16.32 2.45 18.89

2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03

2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39

2Q 2015 9.26 1.54 3.88 0.19 16.93 2.27 19.25

3Q 2015 9.39 1.59 3.93 0.31 17.41 2.29 19.67

4Q 2015 9.17 1.57 3.83 0.30 16.79 2.58 19.36

1Q 2016 9.09 1.50 3.91 0.31 16.70 2.73 19.45

2Q 2016 9.44 1.61 3.81 0.41 17.24 2.25 19.43

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 4.5% -1.9% 119.0% 1.9% -0.9% 1.0%

Aug-15 9.47 1.60 3.89 0.32 17.53 2.34 19.81

Sep-15 9.28 1.54 4.02 0.28 17.18 2.14 19.23

Oct-15 9.25 1.58 3.99 0.21 17.06 2.43 19.35

Nov-15 9.11 1.55 3.70 0.36 16.60 2.55 19.19

Dec-15 9.14 1.58 3.80 0.33 16.71 2.77 19.54

Jan-16 8.67 1.45 3.82 0.34 16.12 2.96 19.06

Feb-16 9.21 1.53 3.96 0.20 16.77 2.72 19.68

Mar-16 9.40 1.54 3.94 0.40 17.22 2.51 19.62

Apr-16 9.21 1.56 3.82 0.48 16.98 2.30 19.26

May-16 9.44 1.56 3.75 0.33 17.06 2.26 19.20

Jun-16 9.66 1.71 3.86 0.41 17.70 2.19 19.83

Jul-16 9.60 1.72 3.58 0.45 17.48 2.38 19.71

Aug-16 9.60 1.71 3.89 0.34 17.82 2.30 20.13

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.4% 7.1% 0.1% 7.5% 1.6% -1.6% 1.6%

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3

2013 151 269 1,162 39 139 1,760 1,054 40 37 127 38 291

2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

2Q 2015 171 322 1,290 43 145 1,971 1,163 26 44 139 42 305

3Q 2015 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

4Q 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

1Q 2016 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334

2Q 2016 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.9% 4.2% 4.6% 7.0% 2.4% 5.4% 5.2% -3.1% -7.5% 7.0% -3.6% 1.7%

Aug-15 179 329 1,299 42 142 1,991 1,153 26 43 152 39 310

Sep-15 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

Oct-15 185 314 1,319 43 148 2,009 1,182 28 38 143 43 299

Nov-15 188 331 1,306 44 151 2,022 1,183 28 38 157 44 316

Dec-15 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325

Jan-16 200 338 1,302 46 154 2,041 1,195 27 42 161 44 330

Feb-16 202 338 1,307 46 152 2,045 1,215 27 42 163 46 335

Mar-16 190 336 1,331 47 148 2,052 1,228 26 44 161 45 334

Apr-16 197 334 1,340 47 145 2,063 1,233 25 43 155 43 325

May-16 197 338 1,345 46 153 2,079 1,236 24 45 154 40 321

Jun-16 199 335 1,350 46 148 2,077 1,224 25 40 149 40 310

Jul-16 204 339 1,328 42 149 2,062 1,185 25 42 156 38 316

Aug-16 202 341 1,336 42 143 2,063 1,179 26 43 160 40 320

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.6% 3.6% 2.9% -0.9% 0.4% 3.6% 2.2% -1.6% -1.0% 4.9% 2.4% 3.1%


C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA

Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude

oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

OPEC

Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf

2013 2.59 0.39 0.74 -0.08 0.37 1.99 6.20 0.71 1.32 0.24 3.47 1.99

2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86

2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50

2Q 2015 2.69 0.12 0.71 -0.14 0.15 1.61 4.61 0.74 1.16 0.02 2.67 1.61

3Q 2015 2.80 0.01 0.88 -0.15 0.22 1.32 4.73 0.79 1.01 0.08 2.58 1.33

4Q 2015 2.77 -0.01 0.70 -0.31 0.19 1.64 4.31 0.79 1.11 0.08 2.87 1.64

1Q 2016 3.21 -0.12 0.77 -0.18 0.36 1.62 4.98 0.72 1.12 0.22 3.06 1.62

2Q 2016 2.65 -0.06 0.69 -0.32 0.40 1.84 4.69 0.71 1.14 0.26 3.25 1.78

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.6% -150.1% -2.0% 118.9% 165.2% 14.3% 1.6% -3.8% -1.9% 1015.7% 22.0% 10.3%

Aug-15 2.98 0.09 1.03 -0.01 0.18 1.25 5.21 0.85 1.01 0.05 2.50 1.25

Sep-15 2.88 0.00 0.79 -0.34 0.25 1.28 4.45 0.81 0.86 0.08 2.61 1.28

Oct-15 2.43 0.03 0.67 -0.27 0.14 1.54 4.17 0.73 0.98 0.04 2.68 1.54

Nov-15 2.73 0.03 0.61 -0.33 0.20 1.65 4.31 0.77 1.23 0.08 2.91 1.65

Dec-15 3.14 -0.09 0.81 -0.32 0.22 1.72 4.45 0.86 1.12 0.13 3.02 1.73

Jan-16 3.19 -0.02 0.62 -0.17 0.23 1.51 4.86 0.65 1.05 0.12 2.82 1.51

Feb-16 3.32 -0.10 0.72 -0.18 0.41 1.55 5.07 0.73 1.01 0.25 2.94 1.55

Mar-16 3.12 -0.23 0.96 -0.18 0.44 1.80 5.00 0.80 1.31 0.29 3.42 1.81

Apr-16 2.71 0.03 0.61 -0.37 0.36 1.77 4.67 0.72 1.15 0.23 3.18 1.71

May-16 2.70 -0.08 0.65 -0.41 0.39 1.98 4.53 0.69 1.17 0.30 3.42 1.92

Jun-16 2.53 -0.14 0.82 -0.18 0.43 1.76 4.87 0.71 1.10 0.25 3.15 1.71

Jul-16 2.44 -0.11 0.82 -0.18 0.49 1.81 5.30 0.84 1.05 0.30 3.56 1.75

Aug-16 2.95 -0.27 0.85 -0.41 0.35 1.82 5.20 0.70 1.14 0.17 3.22 1.81

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.0% -400.0% -17.0% 8140.0% 90.2% 46.1% -0.2% -17.6% 13.1% 219% 28.9% 45.1%

% of Total3 56.7% -5.1% 16.4% -7.9% 6.7% 35.0% 100.0% 13.4% 21.9% 3.3% 62.0% 34.8%

Region of Origin

PAD District U.S. Major Producers

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2

2013 0.03 1.34 4.33 0.50 1.11 7.31 0.52 0.59 0.20 2.47 1.28

2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35

2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50

2Q 2015 0.05 1.77 5.65 0.73 1.09 9.28 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.54 1.43

3Q 2015 0.06 1.82 5.71 0.76 1.05 9.39 0.47 0.58 0.17 3.52 1.48

4Q 2015 0.05 1.78 5.75 0.75 1.02 9.35 0.46 0.56 0.17 3.41 1.65

1Q 2016 0.05 1.82 5.68 0.72 1.10 9.37 0.53 0.57 0.16 3.41 1.62

2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -9.5% -2.8% -2.9% -7.6% -4.4% -3.5% 0.6% -8.5% -5.9% -8.4% 11.1%

Aug-15 0.06 1.77 5.43 0.73 1.01 9.00 0.47 0.54 0.17 3.35 1.40

Sep-15 0.05 1.87 5.90 0.80 1.05 9.67 0.46 0.58 0.17 3.56 1.64

Oct-15 0.05 1.77 5.77 0.77 0.97 9.32 0.41 0.56 0.17 3.42 1.65

Nov-15 0.05 1.74 5.81 0.76 1.04 9.39 0.47 0.56 0.17 3.42 1.69

Dec-15 0.04 1.84 5.68 0.73 1.05 9.35 0.50 0.55 0.17 3.39 1.61

Jan-16 0.04 1.77 5.45 0.71 1.05 9.02 0.51 0.55 0.16 3.29 1.50

Feb-16 0.05 1.93 5.99 0.76 1.17 9.90 0.56 0.61 0.17 3.57 1.75

Mar-16 0.05 1.75 5.61 0.70 1.07 9.18 0.52 0.55 0.16 3.36 1.61

Apr-16 0.05 1.70 5.38 0.66 1.04 8.82 0.49 0.55 0.16 3.21 1.52

May-16 0.05 1.76 5.58 0.68 1.06 9.13 0.51 0.55 0.16 3.28 1.64

Jun-16 0.05 1.70 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.93 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.23 1.59

Jul-16 0.04 1.70 5.46 0.65 1.04 8.89 0.51 0.53 0.16 3.20 1.62

Aug-16 0.04 1.62 5.18 0.62 0.95 8.42 0.45 0.50 0.15 3.07 1.49

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -32.0% -8.3% -4.5% -14.6% -5.8% -6.4% -2.3% -8.7% -8.5% -8.4% 6.7%

R/P Ratio3 21.5 14.4 11.3 16.0 17.4 13.0 17.2 17.7 11.7 12.6 8.6


C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.

Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.

Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.

2013 1.10 85.1 3.42 90.7 8.22 90.4 0.58 92.7 2.56 84.8 15.88 89.2

2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4

2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3

2Q 2015 1.15 91.0 3.70 96.2 8.77 94.4 0.60 93.4 2.46 84.0 16.69 92.8

3Q 2015 1.15 90.4 3.65 94.6 8.77 93.5 0.61 94.2 2.67 91.0 16.85 93.2

4Q 2015 1.15 90.6 3.41 87.7 8.71 92.4 0.60 92.5 2.54 86.5 16.40 90.3

1Q 2016 1.09 85.2 3.58 91.3 8.52 89.5 0.58 85.1 2.50 85.6 16.26 88.8

2Q 2016 1.16 90.7 3.54 90.2 8.70 91.1 0.58 83.9 2.53 86.4 16.50 89.9

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.4% -4.1% -0.9% -4.9% 2.6% -1.1%

Aug-15 1.20 94.0 3.64 94.7 8.83 94.3 0.62 94.6 2.68 91.4 16.96 93.9

Sep-15 1.06 83.5 3.48 89.8 8.58 91.3 0.60 92.5 2.67 91.1 16.39 90.4

Oct-15 1.13 89.0 3.01 77.5 8.39 89.4 0.61 92.9 2.55 87.1 15.69 86.6

Nov-15 1.19 93.5 3.55 91.6 8.76 92.8 0.60 92.5 2.57 87.5 16.67 91.8

Dec-15 1.14 89.2 3.66 94.0 8.96 95.0 0.60 92.0 2.49 85.0 16.85 92.6

Jan-16 1.14 88.9 3.72 94.9 8.39 88.2 0.57 84.1 2.55 87.1 16.37 89.4

Feb-16 1.08 84.5 3.63 92.6 8.44 88.7 0.58 84.7 2.44 83.4 16.17 88.3

Mar-16 1.05 82.3 3.39 86.5 8.72 91.6 0.58 86.4 2.52 86.1 16.26 88.8

Apr-16 1.15 89.8 3.34 85.0 8.63 90.7 0.51 75.0 2.60 88.9 16.22 88.5

May-16 1.17 91.9 3.61 92.0 8.69 91.4 0.57 83.4 2.44 83.3 16.48 89.9

Jun-16 1.16 90.4 3.69 93.7 8.77 91.3 0.65 93.1 2.55 87.1 16.80 91.1

Jul-16 1.10 85.7 3.73 94.7 8.88 92.4 0.63 90.7 2.67 91.2 16.99 92.2

Aug-16 1.09 85.4 3.75 95.3 8.80 91.7 0.61 87.8 2.72 93.0 16.98 92.1

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.7% 3.1% -0.3% -0.8% 1.4% 0.1%

% of Total1 6.4% 22.1% 51.9% 3.6% 16.0% 100.0%

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles

(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)

2013 9.20 21.63 12.83 10.25

2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68

2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50

3Q 2015 12.47 24.84 13.79 23.75

4Q 2015 8.74 12.99 8.98 16.67

1Q 2016 8.14 7.55 8.65 11.05

2Q 2016 10.38 15.87 11.29 13.47

3Q 2016 8.81 13.83 10.94 10.66

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -29.3% -44.3% -20.7% -55.1%

Sep-15 10.13 20.37 9.07 14.88

Oct-15 7.03 19.61 9.08 14.45

Nov-15 9.83 10.00 9.25 13.00

Dec-15 9.35 9.35 8.62 22.57

Jan-16 9.37 5.65 8.70 13.01

Feb-16 7.20 5.28 7.38 3.38

Mar-16 7.84 11.71 9.88 16.76

Apr-16 10.04 14.59 11.48 14.59

May-16 11.03 15.89 11.11 10.81

Jun-16 10.06 17.13 11.27 15.02

Jul-16 8.21 11.41 9.83 8.87

Aug-16 9.36 15.92 12.25 8.76

Sep-16 8.87 14.16 10.73 14.34

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.4% -30.5% 18.3% -3.6%


D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Canada East West

Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2013 3.79 1.65 2.16 0.01 0.28 0.92 -0.64 3.51 0.73 2.78

2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87 -0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12

2015 4.24 1.58 2.69 0.03 0.22 0.90 -0.68 4.02 0.68 3.34

2Q 2015 4.24 1.54 2.65 -0.04 0.24 0.94 -0.70 4.00 0.60 3.40

3Q 2015 4.59 1.60 3.09 0.10 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.37 0.64 3.73

4Q 2015 4.65 1.49 3.27 0.12 0.25 0.92 -0.67 4.40 0.58 3.82

1Q 2016 4.61 1.41 3.19 -0.01 0.29 0.84 -0.55 4.33 0.57 3.75

2Q 2016 3.86 1.50 2.23 -0.12 0.26 0.86 -0.60 3.60 0.64 2.96

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.9% -2.5% -15.9% 10.8% -8.3% -10.0% 6.5%

Aug-15 4.79 1.64 3.19 0.05 0.23 0.98 -0.76 4.56 0.66 3.90

Sep-15 4.28 1.53 2.80 0.05 0.21 0.92 -0.71 4.08 0.61 3.46

Oct-15 4.47 1.36 3.26 0.15 0.17 0.83 -0.66 4.30 0.53 3.78

Nov-15 4.69 1.59 3.26 0.15 0.28 0.96 -0.68 4.41 0.63 3.79

Dec-15 4.78 1.53 3.30 0.05 0.30 0.95 -0.65 4.48 0.58 3.90

Jan-16 4.69 1.34 3.27 -0.07 0.29 0.84 -0.55 4.40 0.51 3.89

Feb-16 4.61 1.23 3.39 0.00 0.29 0.74 -0.44 4.32 0.49 3.83

Mar-16 4.54 1.66 2.92 0.04 0.28 0.94 -0.66 4.26 0.72 3.54

Apr-16 4.17 1.65 2.56 0.04 0.28 0.95 -0.67 3.90 0.70 3.20

May-16 3.56 1.30 2.06 -0.20 0.29 0.75 -0.45 3.27 0.55 2.72

Jun-16 3.84 1.56 2.07 -0.21 0.22 0.89 -0.67 3.62 0.68 2.95

Jul-16 4.49 1.74 2.85 0.11 0.23 0.97 -0.75 4.26 0.77 3.49

Aug-16 4.62 1.72 2.80 -0.10 0.32 0.95 -0.63 4.31 0.77 3.53

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.4% 5.1% -12.3% 40.4% -3.3% -5.6% 17.6%

% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 6.9% 55.1% 93.1% 44.9%

Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2013 16.5 16.2 2.4 52.4 98.9 151.3

2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

2Q 2015 15.1 13.6 1.8 45.7 102.0 147.7

3Q 2015 15.7 12.6 1.8 46.5 103.9 150.4

4Q 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

1Q 2016 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7

2Q 2016 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.0% -12.3% 29.1% -4.2% -29.6% -21.8%

Aug-15 15.2 14.0 1.9 47.5 109.3 156.8

Sep-15 15.7 12.6 1.8 46.5 103.9 150.4

Oct-15 14.9 12.3 2.5 45.5 109.3 154.8

Nov-15 15.0 13.8 2.5 47.1 110.5 157.6

Dec-15 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4

Jan-16 16.5 16.4 2.8 52.2 107.9 160.1

Feb-16 15.8 16.2 2.2 50.5 107.4 157.9

Mar-16 16.0 16.7 2.0 51.0 76.7 127.7

Apr-16 14.5 16.2 2.3 48.9 74.8 123.6

May-16 12.8 12.1 2.4 42.2 69.9 112.1

Jun-16 14.1 11.9 2.3 43.8 71.8 115.6

Jul-16 15.4 13.8 2.2 48.0 75.6 123.6

Aug-16 15.4 14.0 2.8 49.0 70.3 119.2

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.3% 0.0% 48.5% 3.2% -35.7% -24.0%

Finished Products

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1

2013 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.84

2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86

2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80

2Q 2015 0.78 0.55 0.04 1.78

3Q 2015 0.80 0.56 0.03 1.86

4Q 2015 0.76 0.53 0.04 1.77

1Q 2016 0.78 0.50 0.06 1.73

2Q 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.80

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.6% -2.1% -4.4% 1.5%

Aug-15 0.82 0.56 0.04 1.86

Sep-15 0.77 0.60 0.03 1.84

Oct-15 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.85

Nov-15 0.76 0.51 0.04 1.75

Dec-15 0.74 0.52 0.05 1.72

Jan-16 0.80 0.50 0.06 1.75

Feb-16 0.76 0.53 0.06 1.74

Mar-16 0.78 0.48 0.05 1.71

Apr-16 0.78 0.53 0.05 1.74

May-16 0.81 0.57 0.04 1.81

Jun-16 0.85 0.53 0.03 1.87

Jul-16 0.86 0.51 0.03 1.90

Aug-16 0.85 0.57 0.05 1.94

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.1% 1.4% -95.4% 4.4%


D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s

Energy Statistics Handbook.

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports

Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total

2013 24 15 36 55 466 71 47 16 2 177 57 643

2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543

2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567

2Q 2015 0 344 15 11 592 12 21 0 0 33 0 625

3Q 2015 0 191 0 3 461 74 42 0 0 116 0 577

4Q 2015 0 187 1 11 446 33 10 0 0 43 0 489

1Q 2016 0 137 12 7 494 34 0 0 0 34 0 528

2Q 2016 0 258 2 19 521 120 0 0 0 120 0 642

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -25.0% -85.9% 61.6% -12.0% 891.3% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 264.8% 0.0% 2.6%

Aug-15 0 254 0 0 469 87 35 0 0 122 0 590

Sep-15 0 0 0 9 434 69 29 0 0 98 0 532

Oct-15 0 332 0 10 388 33 30 0 0 63 0 451

Nov-15 0 229 3 23 507 67 0 0 0 67 0 574

Dec-15 0 0 0 0 443 0 0 0 0 0 0 443

Jan-16 0 0 0 0 452 65 0 0 0 65 0 518

Feb-16 0 207 22 22 377 36 0 0 0 36 0 413

Mar-16 0 203 14 0 653 0 0 0 0 0 0 653

Apr-16 0 257 6 30 504 133 0 0 0 133 0 637

May-16 0 236 0 0 555 125 0 0 0 125 0 681

Jun-16 0 280 0 25 505 103 0 0 0 103 0 608

Jul-16 0 286 0 0 550 164 0 0 0 164 0 714

Aug-16 0 263 33 0 526 129 0 0 0 129 0 655

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 48.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 11.0%

% of Total3 0.0% 40.2% 5.0% 0.0% 80.3% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% 100.0%

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type

Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs

2013 2.63 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.23 3.46 0.91 0.94 0.45 0.98 0.15

2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22

2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22

2Q 2015 2.81 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.15 3.61 0.83 0.81 0.45 1.28 0.21

3Q 2015 3.17 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.14 3.95 0.79 1.02 0.45 1.46 0.22

4Q 2015 3.19 0.52 0.06 0.01 0.17 4.00 0.82 0.98 0.44 1.51 0.25

1Q 2016 3.21 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.83 1.04 0.40 1.48 0.26

2Q 2016 2.55 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.18 3.30 0.75 0.52 0.39 1.37 0.26

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -9.3% -12.6% 12.7% -5.0% 18.6% -8.7% -9.3% -36.5% -12.0% 6.7% 20.4%

Aug-15 3.35 0.54 0.05 0.01 0.15 4.16 0.81 1.16 0.46 1.50 0.21

Sep-15 2.89 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.13 3.65 0.78 0.81 0.44 1.38 0.23

Oct-15 3.08 0.53 0.06 0.01 0.09 3.83 0.75 0.87 0.45 1.51 0.24

Nov-15 3.22 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.20 4.05 0.85 1.04 0.44 1.47 0.25

Dec-15 3.28 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.21 4.13 0.87 1.02 0.44 1.54 0.26

Jan-16 3.28 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.09 0.84 1.05 0.41 1.52 0.26

Feb-16 3.20 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.21 4.02 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.43 0.26

Mar-16 3.15 0.47 0.07 0.01 0.20 3.95 0.82 0.99 0.40 1.49 0.26

Apr-16 2.84 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.19 3.61 0.79 0.61 0.39 1.55 0.26

May-16 2.22 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.20 2.99 0.77 0.35 0.39 1.22 0.25

Jun-16 2.58 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.15 3.29 0.70 0.59 0.40 1.34 0.26

Jul-16 3.13 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.16 3.85 0.70 0.90 0.40 1.56 0.27

Aug-16 3.24 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.04 0.78 1.06 0.40 1.53 0.26

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.1% -16.7% 10.9% -12.5% 58.4% -3.1% -3.6% -8.6% -13.5% 2.3% 22.0%


E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.


N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 2,221 117 27 2,365 219 368 586 288 195 483 3,435

2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573

2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337

3Q 2015 1,098 91 16 1,205 201 193 394 436 153 589 2,187

4Q 2015 967 90 15 1,072 191 307 498 320 143 463 2,033

1Q 2016 749 87 10 847 176 256 432 309 141 451 1,729

2Q 2016 491 81 6 578 178 229 407 293 134 427 1,412

3Q 2016 626 80 5 711 185 224 410 296 121 417 1,538

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -43.0% -11.7% -70.2% -41.0% -7.8% 16.4% 4.1% -32.1% -20.9% -29.2% -29.7%

Oct-15 1,013 90 16 1,119 197 311 508 311 148 459 2,086

Nov-15 976 87 14 1,077 194 310 504 325 141 466 2,047

Dec-15 913 92 16 1,021 182 299 481 325 139 464 1,966

Jan-16 887 88 14 989 179 268 447 314 139 453 1,889

Feb-16 769 90 9 868 173 256 429 311 140 451 1,748

Mar-16 592 83 8 683 175 244 419 303 145 448 1,550

Apr-16 501 79 6 586 173 229 402 293 143 436 1,424

May-16 471 84 7 562 183 232 415 294 133 427 1,404

Jun-16 500 81 4 585 178 226 404 292 126 418 1,407

Jul-16 567 84 4 655 182 230 412 295 120 415 1,482

Aug-16 636 81 6 723 188 220 408 292 124 416 1,547

Sep-16 675 76 4 755 186 223 409 300 120 420 1,584

Oct-16 721 71 4 796 178 227 405 305 114 419 1,620

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -28.8% -21.1% -75.0% -28.9% -9.6% -27.0% -20.3% -1.9% -23.0% -8.7% -22.3%

% of Total2 44.5% 4.4% 0.2% 49.1% 11.0% 14.0% 25.0% 18.8% 7.0% 25.9% 100.0%

United States Canada North America1

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total

2013 89 420 1,049 153 50 1,761 1,705 56 351 1,728 384 2,112

2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238

2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170

3Q 2015 58 214 203 310 97 866 833 32 191 849 208 1,056

4Q 2015 54 187 45 378 111 754 724 29 174 741 187 928

1Q 2016 37 132 32 279 98 546 520 27 163 600 109 709

2Q 2016 32 104 27 206 72 420 397 24 49 382 87 469

3Q 2016 40 104 27 251 73 480 461 18 122 514 87 601

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -30.6% -51.3% -86.5% -19.2% -24.5% -44.6% -44.6% -43.4% -36.2% -39.4% -58.1% -43.1%

Oct-15 48 194 50 402 117 791 758 33 184 782 193 975

Nov-15 58 194 47 378 107 760 729 31 178 744 194 938

Dec-15 56 174 37 355 108 711 686 24 160 697 174 871

Jan-16 48 155 34 332 107 643 615 28 190 700 133 833

Feb-16 35 123 29 266 98 519 493 26 211 628 102 730

Mar-16 28 119 32 240 88 477 451 27 88 472 93 565

Apr-16 31 109 29 215 75 437 411 26 41 390 88 478

May-16 31 103 27 201 70 407 384 24 42 363 86 449

Jun-16 35 100 25 203 72 417 396 21 63 394 86 480

Jul-16 37 102 27 229 72 449 429 20 95 456 88 544

Aug-16 40 104 27 256 71 481 464 17 129 528 82 610

Sep-16 43 107 28 267 76 509 491 18 141 559 91 650

Oct-16 47 120 35 272 87 543 521 23 157 595 105 700

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.1% -38.1% -30.0% -32.3% -25.6% -31.3% -31.3% -30.2% -14.7% -23.9% -45.6% -28.2%

% of Total3 6.7% 17.1% 5.0% 38.9% 12.4% 77.6% 74.4% 3.3% 22.4% 85.0% 15.0% 100.0%


Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republ ic,

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak

Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is

comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD

Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-

OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England

(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid

-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South

Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West

(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West

(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,

Washington.

3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the

Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova

Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British

Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest

Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).

Additional Notes

1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),

whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.

Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as

NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined

products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo

by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified

quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.

Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the

loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the

responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is

priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the

transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is

similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF

transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is

greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.

Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock

changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

Crude Stream

Producing

Country or

Region

API

Gravity

(@60° F)

Sulfur

Content

(%)

BBLs/Metric

Tonne

Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910

Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773

WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640

GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640

Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640

Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640

Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640

ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640

Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551

Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506

Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462

Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373

Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373

Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373

Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373

WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328

Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284

Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284

Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239

Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194

Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105

Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061

ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061

Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971

Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971

Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838

Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436

Crude Oil Qualities

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

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