October 2011 Forecast Review
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Transcript of October 2011 Forecast Review
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October2011
Forecast Review
Doug MacdonaldUtah League of Cities and Towns
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Led by China, nominal GDP will average 5.1% in 2012 (down 1% from 2011)
Source: The Economist, October 8, 2011
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The U.S. economy (real GDP) appears to be moving upward
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The Fed’s U.S. leading economic indicators are improving too
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But the ECRI leading index is pointing
down
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And a European Crisis Looms
Joe Brusuelas, Bloomberg, “Hard default in Greece will require recapitalizations in U.S. (JP Morgan, Citi, Wells, BofA, HSBC, GS)
Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO, “French banks are under pressure”
Neil Barofsky, NYU, “The parallels with 2008 are remarkable, low capital held against assets.”
Nouriel Roubini, NYU, “We are running out of policy bullets. At this point, the issue is not whether there is going to be a recession, but whether it’s going to be severe recession and a global financial crisis.”
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U.S. Business Equipment & Software will in improve in 2012, but at a slower pace
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Utah employment still headed up, while U.S. job growth stalls
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Unemployment claims rose a bit in last three months, but are now below 2002 levels
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Consumer sentiment up 4 points in September after plummeting in July & August
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Utah Residential Construction up 2% in 2011 thru July, may improve up to 15% in 2012
Source: Univ. of Utah, BEBR
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Last three months increased 4.3%
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Salt Lake County 2nd Quarter Sales Stats
Sales in Million $ % Change from 2010
Manufacturing $ 203 - 0.8%Wholesale durable goods
458 10.9
Retail – General merchandise
551 5.5
Retail – Motor Vehicles
575 25.3
Retail – Apparel 156 11.4Retail – Eating and drinking
400 8.1
Retail – Food stores 360 - 7.4Services – Business 236 24.8Services – Auto Rentals & Repair
176 7.6
Total Taxable Sales $5,035 6.2Source: Utah State
Tax Commission
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U.S. consumers continue to spend despite volatile job and
stock market conditions
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1 month, ytd -1.2%