October 19, 2007 Leo Efstathiou Jonathan Goto Katy...
Transcript of October 19, 2007 Leo Efstathiou Jonathan Goto Katy...
![Page 1: October 19, 2007 Leo Efstathiou Jonathan Goto Katy Zhaopeople.stern.nyu.edu/iag/presentations/2007-2008/mo.pdf · 2007. 11. 27. · Leo Efstathiou Jonathan Goto Katy Zhao. Agenda.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070215/611a46f926448278f9577bfe/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
October 19, 2007Leo Efstathiou Jonathan Goto Katy Zhao
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AgendaCompany & Market
Investment Thesis
Risk Factors
Q & A
Valuation
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The Company & Market
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• 1847 - Philip Morris opens shop in London
• 1924 – Introduction of Marlboro
• 1969 – Philip Morris acquires Miller Brewing Company
• 1987 – Philip Morris International
• 1988 - Acquires Kraft Food
• 2003 – Changes Name to Altria Group
• 2007 – Spins Off Kraft
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Company History
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Company Structure
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Philip Morris Capital Corp.• Leveraged leases of
airplanes, power plants, real estate
• $6.7bn net assets
• No new investments
• Focused on cash flow and asset sales
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
SABMiller
Altria’s Stake:Book - $3.93 billion Market - $13.28 billion
• USA Joint Venture with Molson Coors• Double-digit growth in Europe and S. America• One of the largest global bottlers of Coca-Cola
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
PM USA Brands
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
PM USA by the Numbers
2006 2005Net Revenue $ 18,474 $ 18,134
Operating Inc. $ 4,812 $ 4,581
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• Today: 44.5mil smokers, 21% adults (vs 53.7mil in 1983).
• Sales fall 0.7% a yr
• Profit margins have grown (current 30%)
• 30% of women smoke while pregnant
• Males = 23.9%, Females = 18.1%
• 90% of smokers begin before 21. 23% of high students smoke. 8% of middle students.
• a
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Domestic Smoking Trends
31%
21%20%
15%
13%
Native AmericanWhiteBlackHispanicAsian
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Philip Morris International
• 57.81% of revenue
• Acquisition Growth and Global Trends
• Philip Morris International Spin- off
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
26.4 24.4 23.6
38.2
17.4
43.3
59
36.233.5
8.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Russia Japan Indonesia Ukraine Brazil Turkey Italy Germany Spain Korea
PMI Market Share in Top 10 International Markets
Totally Market Share %
Philip Morris International cont.
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Tobacco Market
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Asia Pacific - Retail Value RSP - US$ mn North America - Retail Value RSP - US$ mn
Asia’s Tobacco Market
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Investment Thesis
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Picking Winners
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
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Picking Winners
Value Growth
Income
Safety
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
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Income & Safety
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
• Non-Cyclical Business
• Resistant to credit problems, recession risk
• Dow down 3% today on recession worries – Altria down .3%
• Dividend Yield: 4.3%
• Payout Ratio: 64%
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Value
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
0
5
10
15
20
25
RAI UST MO CG BTI S&P500
Forward P/E Ratios
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Uncaptured Value
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Growth
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
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China
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
• $65-70 billion/year, growing market• Joint venture with CNTC announced in 2005• Little to no coverage in the financial press
“Developments in China have been slower than we originally hoped. PMI expects that this year, licensed production of Marlboro in China will begin and the joint venture will become fully operational.”
- Altria 2006 Annual Report
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Risk Factors
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Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Taxation• Minor: Price Increases• Strategy: Adaptability of
Products – Cheaper Economy Brands
Government Regulations• Minor: Banning of
advertising• Strategy: Move into
fledging industries which have looser legislative controls
• Added Barrier to Entry
Social Pressures and Health• Major: Health Awareness
campaigns
• Strategy: Shift to lower-tar variants and cigars
• Smokeless Tobacco – Snuff and chewing tobacco
• Altria supports anti-youth smoking
Risk Factors
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Competition• Major: Reynolds
American, Lorillard Tobacco, Vector Group (35% m.s.)
• Growing: smaller manufactures free of MSA settlement. (15% m.s.)
Litigation• Since 1998, class action
suits are frowned upon.
• 2005-2006 great years for litigation.
• MSA settlement: $100bil
• $1.2bil annual escrow fund deposits (in addition to $5bil MSA)
Market & Company Investment Thesis Risk Factors Q&A Valuation
Risk Factors part 2
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Q & A
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Valuation