Agenda-setting; Policy Formulation I: the foundations of policy analysis

October 15, 2013

Midterm October 22

You are only responsible for readings, lectures, and themes up through last week (through October 10)

Theme list for midterms will be finalized by tomorrow 11 AM

Be Connect smart: download lectures rather than relying on system

Today’s agenda

Course reset Policy cycle

Agenda setting Policy formulation▪ Policy analysis

Analytical Framework: Forces at work in natural resources policy

4

environment

governance

markets

policies

actions

Conse-quences

Policy Cycle Model

5

Agenda-Setting

Policy Formulation

Decisionmaking

Policy Implementation

Monitoring and Evaluation

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Agenda-Setting – Definitions

Social Agenda (general, systemic): issues that the public thinks deserve attention from government measures: polls, media

Formal Agenda (government): issues explicitly up for active and serious consideration by policy makers measures: announced proposals,

throne speech

North

ern

Gatew

ay

Clayo

qout

Sou

nd0

100

200

300

400

500

600

GlobeVancouver Sun

Northern Gateway v Clayoquot

Media coverage

NGP from Oct 1 2011-Sep 15, 2013, Clayoquot 1993

Source: http://greenpolicyprof.org/wordpress/?p=686

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Agenda-Setting - Process

Kingdon’s “streams” model: a confluence of Problem stream Politics stream Policy (solution)

stream Opens a “policy

window” Opportunity for

“policy entrepreneurs”

10

Agenda-Setting - Process

Changes in “Problem” indicators knowledge, technology focusing event

Changes in “Politics” changing public mood elections interest group strategies

Agenda-Setting - Process Changes in

“Problem” indicators knowledge,

technology focusing event

Changes in “Politics” changing public

mood elections interest group

strategies

How did the mid-term timber supply issue get on the government’s agenda?

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Small Group Discussion

How did the mid-term timber supply issue get on the government’s agenda?

Policy Cycle Model

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Agenda-Setting

Policy Formulation

Decisionmaking

Policy Implementation

Monitoring and Evaluation

Policy Formulation

THINKING

Policy analysis of alternatives

TALKING

Consultation with stakeholders

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Case Study: mid-term timber supply

Special Committee on Timber Supply

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6-stepPatton and Sawieki – Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning

1. Verify, define and detail the problem

2. Establish evaluation criteria 3. Identify alternative policies 4. Assess alternative policies 5. Display and distinguish among

alternatives 6. Implement, monitor, and evaluate

the policy

Essential Steps

Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple alternatives Outcomes/consequences of

alternatives Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision

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PS v. GH

1. Verify, define and detail the problem

2. Establish evaluation criteria

3. Identify alternative policies

4. Assess alternative policies

5. Display and distinguish among alternatives

6. Implement, monitor, and evaluate the policy

Define problem Criteria for

evaluation Identify multiple

alternatives Outcomes/

consequences of alternatives

Compare/tradeoff Recommended

decision

1. Problem definition

don’t confuse with solutions quantify if possible be skeptical about common causal

claims

2. Criteria for evaluation

apply to outcomes, not alternatives build on problem definition common:

Effectiveness Efficiency (cost-effectiveness) equity political acceptability robustness and improvability

3. Identify multiple alternatives

start comprehensive, end up focused Alternative = option The status is an alternative

4. Project Outcomes/Consequences

projection = model + evidence attach magnitude estimates breakeven estimates avoid excessive optimism

scenario-writing other person’s shoes

5. Compare/Tradeoff

Commensurability Confront the

tradeoffsAlternatives/criteria

Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3

Alternative 1 3 2 1

Alternative 2 2 1 3

Alternative 3 2 1 3

Analysis vs. Advocacy

ANALYSIS

Neutral stance on Solutions, Problem framing

Careful, balanced use of evidence

ADVOCACY

Position based on group’s interest

Strategic framing More selective use of

evidence

Does effective analysis ignore other side’s argument, or engage it?The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents strongest claim and discredits it with evidence and reason

Thursday

11-12: Midterm review session led by Gabrielle

There will be no presentation: Come in with questions

12-1: Special session for those whose native language is not English

Midterm

Tuesday October 22 CHBE 103 FRST 523 + FRST 415 A-K

last name FRST 1221 – L- Z last name George Office hours

Today 2:30-3:30 Wednesday 10-12 Monday – 10-2:30

Gabrielle: FSC 2227 Wednesday 3:30-4:30, Friday from 9-10 am.

Thursday October 24

First tutorial on writing brief – Problem definition

“flipped classroom” You are required to read the one-

pager on problem definition that is that will be posted on Connect by the evening of October 22

Come to class ready to work with your groups to define your problem