OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market...

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Scanning for Planning

Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant

CIL 2006Alane Wilson

Senior Library Market Consultant


Trend Spotting started here for Trend Spotting started here for OCLCOCLC


Why Do This?

Western Union

Personal computer

Amazoogle, YaBay,

Skating where the puck will be


Futuring: 4 Questions

Can we predict the future?

Can we know the future?

Can we control the future?

Can we influence the future?

NONO

YESYES

NONO

YESYES


The Four Types of Change

Continuous Discontinuous

TrendsAging

Economic growth

EventsFall of Berlin Wall

September 11

ImprovementsMarket shareFewer defects

TransformationsNew leadership

New vision

Giv

en

Ch

osen

From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston


Prediction and Forecasting

Prediction

Physical evidence

Strong assumptions

Unitary phenomenon

Higher quality inferences

Forecasting

Intangible evidence

Weak assumptions

Multiple possibilities

Lower quality inferences



Short-term horizon Long-term horizon

Single domain Many domains

Few factors Many factors

Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity

Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty

Single forecast Alternative forecasts

Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques

Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting

Forecasts - Two Approaches



Scenarios enhance

creativity in visioning

Scanning for trends

Identify key forces

Scenario matrix narratives

Vision

Mission

Goals

Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures

Generation of new strategies

Evaluation of new andexisting strategies

Strategic priorities and plan of actionDiagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com

Are strategies robust? Do they work in most

or all scenarios?

Do strategies align with vision, mission

and goals?


What is Environmental Scanning?

“Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.”

Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.


Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP

Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes

PEST(LE)

Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental)

SETRLL

Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries

Whatever!


Trend Spotting

It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding


This Isn’t a Trend

It’s a disaster…

Best not to be here


The 3 Main Challenges

Management and corporate culture

They’re just not that into trends

Resources

Time, funds, attention

Understanding and applying trends

Thinking BIG and…so what?


Management and corporate culture


Resources

Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…


Understanding and Applying Trends

Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL


The Amazoogle* Effect

Comprehensive

Accessible

Immediate gratification

Market-of-One

*Coined by Lorcan Dempsey,OCLC VP of Research


Convenience Trumps Quality

Scientists: Google

Yahoo

PubMed

Librarians: Science Direct

ISI Web of Science

MedLine

Source: John Regazzi, “The Battle for Mindshare: A battle beyond access and retrieval” http://www.nfais.org/publications/mc_lecture_2004.htm

“In a survey for this lecture, librarians and scientists were asked to name the top scientific and medical search resources that they use or are aware of. The difference is startling.”


LibrariesLibraries in the “infosphere” 2004in the “infosphere” 2004

Published

Content

Published

Content

Institutional

Content

Institutional

Content

Special

Collections

Special

Collections

Web ContextWeb Context


College Students - Use of electronic resources

Q855


Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site?


How do you select which electronic information source to use?

Q715


…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?

0

20%

40%

60%

70%

80%

50%

30%

10%

TotalRespondents

AustraliaSingapore

India

Canada UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

22%

69%

9%

24%

66%

10%

28%

60%

12%18%

75%

7%

21%

70%

9%

Library sources more trustworthy Library sources less tr

Q1205


…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?

Q1205


Decreased activities due to Internet use

Read thenewspaper

Readbooks

Watch television

Listen to the radio

Visit with friends/family

in person

39%

21%

14%

26%

26%


“Lifestyle fit” of information sources

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Library OnlineLibrary

Bookstore

Fits perfectlywithyour lifestyle

Is agood fit foryour lifestyle

Somewhat fits your lifestyle

Does not fityour lifestyle

OnlineBookstore

Total Respondents Q1345


The Library – An Idea Amplifier?

“If a CEO can see his company as primarily an idea amplifier, then he can understand his "brand" properly. Vision doesn't require molecules, it never did. What it requires is something worth believing in.”

Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com


Last Thoughts…Finding a Vision

“We are here to find meaning. We are here to help other people do the same. Everything else is secondary.”

Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com


The Internet of Things

“spimes” & “blogjets”


So long, and thanks for all the fish


I’d like to acknowledge the ideas and content I’ve used here from Dr. Peter C. Bishop, futurist and faculty member at the University of Houston, and from Trendwatching.com, a trendspotting company.

OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market...

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