Oceans, Carbon, and the Mother of all Assumptions
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Transcript of Oceans, Carbon, and the Mother of all Assumptions
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Pedro MS Monteiro
CSIR, Rosebank
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How the Planet Breathes
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Domain 3: Southern Oceans
Tropical Eastern Atlantic
Domain 2b: Tropical
Western Indian
Advective and vertical feedbacks to global system
Southern African Regional Earth System
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TWO ASSUMPTIONS
• Natural ocean fluxes of CO2 will remain
unchanged
• We can reduce atmospheric CO2 to
350ppm within a century
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Fate of Global Emissions of CO2
GtC y-1
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Global Carbon Project 2006
Global Carbon Budget (2000-2005) (PgC y-1)
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Rintoul et al., 2009
Southern Ocean is the only connection between
38000 GtC Deep Ocean CO2 and atmosphere
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Dan Costa, UCSC, USA
Are things changing?
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100 years
1000 years
10,000 years
750 ppmCO2
275 ppmCO2
550 ppmCO2
350 ppmCO2
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2
Land Biosphere
Ocean Biosphere
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100 years
1000 years
10,000 years
750 ppmCO2
275 ppmCO2
550 ppmCO2
350 ppmCO2
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2
Land Biosphere
Ocean Biosphere
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CRISIS
OPPORTUNITY
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CAPE TOWN:
COSMOPOLITAN SA CENTRE
KNOWLEDGE & INNOVATION
(CLIMATE – CARBON)
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Centre for High Performance
Computing: Rosebank
Centre for Ocean Observations
Robotics and Sensor R&D: V&A
SA Agulhas II: in Cape Town April 2012
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New Generation
Scientists and Engineers
Imaginative Innovation
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Dif
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O2
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Date
Cape Point CO2 - Cape Town Influence
SA - Integrated Carbon Observatory Network (SA-ICON)
Cape Town metro pilot
study
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Southern Oceans
Tropical Eastern Atlantic
Tropical Western Indian
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V urgent action
<450ppm
Innovative
Development
Opportunities
Cape Town