Ocean Physics and Sea Ice Evaluation

Detelina Ivanova (NERSC, Norway)

detelina.ivanova@nersc.no

IS-ENES2 Meeting

12/05/2014

Outlines

�  “In Situ” Ocean and Sea Ice Observations

�  Satellite Ocean and Sea Ice Observations

�  ESM Evaluation Metrics

�  Ocean Evaluation Examples

�  Sea Ice Evaluation Examples

�  Toward High-Resolution ESM – meso-scale metrics and observations needs

�  Single & Multi-model Ensemble metrics

�  ESM Evaluation Tools

“In Situ” Ocean Observations

“In Situ” Observational Programs

�  Argo - Global profiling floats array measuring mid and upper ocean temperature and salinity

�  DBCP – Moored and Drifting Buoys Data

�  GLOSS – Global Sea Level Observing System

�  GTSPP – Global Temperature and Salinity Profiles Program

�  Ship Programs – GO-SHIP, VOSclim, SOOP

�  Tropical Mooring Arrays – TOA, PIRATA

�  RAPID – Monitoring Atlantic Meridional Overturning

Ocean From Space

SSHA and geostrophic currents – T/P, Jason 1,2 Winds & Waves – QuickSCAT SST – MODIS, AVHRR SSS – Aquarius Ocean Color - SeaWifs

Sea Ice “In Situ” Observations

US National Snow and Ice Data Center www.nsidc.org

•  IAPB - International Arctic Buoy Program - Ice Drift •  IPAB – Antarctic Drifting Buoy Data – Ice Drift •  AWI ULS data – Ice Darft •  Submarine ULS data collection – Ice Draft •  NASA IceBridge Operation - Sea Ice and Ice sheets surface

topography, Ice and Snow Thickness, Ice Distribution etc.

Sea Ice from Space

•  Sea Ice Concentration and Ice Edge - SSM/I Nimbus5-7, AMSR-E – Aqua

•  Sea Ice Altimetry, Ice Thickness – IceSat/GLAS , CryoSat

•  RGPS – Sea Ice Motion and Deformation

ESA CryoSat-2

NASA IceSat & IceSat-2

Ocean Evaluation Metrics •  Model Equilibrium assessment: Time series of global ocean volume averaged

quantities (i.e. T,S,KE) •  Mean Climate State Global Scale Assessment: 2D – 3D mean climatologies Horizontal

distributions (annual and seasonal means), Zonal Vertical Averages (Global and Basin wide)

•  Point-wise Regional Assessment - Specific sections/transects, vertical profiles, point time series

•  T/S relationships across XBT or WOCE transects •  Seasonal Variability Assessment: Mean annual cycle, Seasonal climatologies

•  Interannual Variability Assessment: ENSO, NAO, POD, AMO •  Higher Order Metrics: Derived or integrated quantities required to be on the native

model grid for conservation i.e. Meridional Heat Transports (MHT), Meridional Overturning (MOC), Ocean Heat Content (OHC), Volume, Heat and Salinity Transports at specific Sections

•  Model Skill assessed via Differences, RMSE, Correlation with the observed quantities

Observations commonly used in ESM ocean and sea ice evaluations

World Ocean Atlas, 2009; (WOA09) – based on in situ T,S , 1° resolution

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/

HadISST - optimally interpolated SST and SIC using Satellite (GTS), ICOADS and MDB, 1° resolution (Rayner et al., 2003)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/

Mean Dynamic Ocean Topography (MDOT) – based on satellite altimetry, near surface drifters, NCEP winds and GRACE, 0.5° resolution, (Maximenko et. al 2009)

http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/DOT/

PHC3.0 – Polar Hydrographic Climatology (T,S) – merged product from WOA98 and Arctic Ocean Atlas, 1° resolution, (Steele et al., 2001)

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/nonwp_projects/PHC/Climatology.html

Model Configurations

In the next evaluations the following model configurations are used:

�  1° MICOM+CICE (NorESM)

�  0.1° POP (LANL-US DOE) forced with CORE I

�  0.1° POP-CICE (LANL-US DOE) forced with CORE I

�  0.1° CCSM4 (NCAR-LANL-US DOE)

�  1° CCSM3 (NCAR)

�  CMIP5 40 models ensemble

Ocean Evaluation (examples) 1° MICOM (NorESM1) Temperature & Salinity 2D Climatologies compared to WOA09

AMOC 1° MICOM (NorESM1) AMOC Time Series at different locations

RAPID AMOC Time Series at 26.5°N

1° MICOM (NorESM1) Zonally integrated AMOC

Sea Ice Evaluation Metrics

�  Ice concentration,

�  Ice Thickness,

�  Ice Volume,

�  Snow cover,

�  Ice Growth & Melt,

�  Volume and Area tendencies,

�  Ice Velocities

Sea Ice Evaluation (examples) 1° CICE (NorESM) AMJ seasonal climatology (left) and Arctic/Antarctic Climatological Annual Cycles (right) compared to SSM/I Obs

Toward High-Res ESM Metrics and Observation Needs

�  Moving toward 0.25°, 0.1° resolution of Ocean and Sea Ice components in CMIP6 ESM

�  Need of meso-scale evaluation metrics i.e. EKE, Eddy Fluxes, RMS SSH, Storm Tracks, Leads and polynias in Sea Ice

�  Need of higher resolution Obs <1°

Sea Surface Height

0.1° POP (CCSM4) SSH (middle) compared to MDOT (top)

RMS SSHA

Zonally Averaged RMS SSHA

EQ Pacific Ocean

0.1° CCSM4

0.1° CCSM4

Johnson et al, 2002

Johnson et al, 2002

Temperature Salinity Zonal Velocity Zonal Sections at the EQ

Meridional Sections at 140E 5S-5N

Johnson et al, 2002 Observations based on TOGA/TAO

Ensemble Metrics

�  Single model ensemble – Mean, STD

�  Multi-model ensemble – PCMDI diagnostic package (coming soon)

Multi-Model Ensemble Metrics Total Sea Ice Area Climatological Annual Cycle - MME Mean and STD

Multi-Model Ensemble Metrics SIC in 40 CMIP5 models compared to NASATEAM (ref) and BOOTSTRAP Observations