Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange in an …€¦ · How effective will ocean CO2sink...
Transcript of Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange in an …€¦ · How effective will ocean CO2sink...
Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange in an Evolving Climate
Scott DoneyJoe D. and Helen J. Kington Professor
in Environmental ChangeUniversity of Virginia
@ScottDoney1
AMS 2019 Annual MeetingInez Fung Symposium
Session 2 Future Biosphere and Climate
Ocean CO2 Uptake, Climate Warming & Ocean Acidification
Le Quéré et al.Earth System Science Data 2018
How effective will ocean CO2 sink be in future warmer world? How will warming & ocean acidification affect marine biogeochemistry & ecology?
Ocean removes ~1/4 of human CO2 emissions
Atmospheric CO2 build up contributing to global climate change
Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake
Tans, Fung & Takahashi Science 1990
Bender et al. NOAA LSCOP Report 2002
Precursor for Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP
1990: Air-sea DpCO2 data inconsistent with large Northern Hemisphere ocean sink
Tans et al. Science 1990
Present: Greatly improved pCO2 data & air-sea CO2 flux esTmates from Surface Ocean Carbon Atlas (SOCAT)
Landschützeret al. GBC 2014
Jul-Oct
Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake
Tans, Fung & Takahashi
Science 1990
Bender et al. NOAA
LSCOP Report 2002
Precursor for
Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP
Future: Integrate data from new autonomous ocean platforms (e.g., profiling floats) & reconcile air-sea CO2 flux
inconsistencies from ocean & atmosphere data and models
Gray et al. GRL 2018
Le Quéré et al. Earth System Science Data 2018
ocean BGC models
pCO2-data products
atmosphere inversions
Southern Ocean <30S
Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake
Tans, Fung & Takahashi Science 1990
Bender et al. NOAA LSCOP Report 2002
Precursor for Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP
Future: Combine air-sea flux & ocean CO2 storage data/ models to detect climate change signal from natural variability
Gruber et al. Ann. Rev. Marine Science 2019
Climate-Carbon Feedbacks
Doney et al.J. Climate 2006
Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006
Fung et al. IGBP 2000
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group
Fung et al. PNAS 2005
Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009
2005: Pilot studies with Earth System Models that integrate active land & ocean carbon dynamics with climate
Lovenduski et al. GBC 2016
Present: Standard CMIP ESM analyses indicating climate reduces ocean uptake but ocean physics is larger uncertainty sensitivity of CO2 uptake
Climate-Carbon Feedbacks
Doney et al.J. Climate 2006
Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006
Fung et al. IGBP 2000
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group
Fung et al. PNAS 2005
Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009
Schwinger et al. J. Climate 2014
Linear decomposition of cumulative ocean carbon inventoryDC = b DCO2
atm + g DT b (PgC/ppm); g (Pg C/K)
IPCC 2013
g
b
constant climate
warming climate
Climate-Carbon Feedbacks
Doney et al.J. Climate 2006
Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006
Fung et al. IGBP 2000
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group
Fung et al. PNAS 2005
Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009
Lovenduski et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2016
Future: Quantify better ocean CO2 uptake mechanisms, climate sensitivity, sources of uncertainty & decadal predictability
Matt Long et al. unpublished
Climate-Carbon Feedbacks
Doney et al.
J. Climate
2006
Friedlingstein et al.
J. Climate 2006
Fung et al.
IGBP 2000
CCSM/CESM
Biogeochemistry
Working Group
Fung et al.
PNAS 2005
Thornton et al.
Biogeosciences
2009
Future: Expand scope of ESM to capture carbon cycle for
Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum & coastal blue carbon storage
Regnier et al.
Nature Geoscience
2013
Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.
GBC 2000
Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b
Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008
2000: Using limited available field data quantify upper-ocean cycle of iron, key limiting micronutrient for phytoplankton
Fung et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2000Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry
Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.
GBC 2000
Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b
Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008
Future: Leverage new ecosystem models & rapidly expanding biogeochemical & plankton data syntheses: GEOTRACES trace elements; MAREDAT plankton functional types; genomics
Tagliabue et al. Nature 2017
Nutrients & Trace Metals
Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry
Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry
CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.
GBC 2000
Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b
Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008
Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013
Future: Employ Earth System Models incorporaHng coupled plankton-biogeochemistry-carbon cycle-fisheries dynamics to address climate, deoxygenaHon & acidificaHon impacts
Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry
DSST DpH
DNPPDO2
Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry
CCSM/CESM
Biogeochemistry
Working Group Fung et al.
GBC 2000
Moore et al.
DSR II 2002a
& 2002b
Boyd et al.
Biogeosciences
2008
Future: Employ Earth System Models incorporating coupled
plankton-biogeochemistry-carbon cycle-fisheries dynamics to
address climate, deoxygenation & acidification impacts
Earth System
Models with
dynamic ocean
biogeochemistry
Cooley et al. PLoS One 2015; Rheuban et al. PLoS One 2018
Integrated assessment model of U.S. Northeast scallop fishery
coupling biology, chemistry & socio-economics
Sco$ DoneyJoe D. and Helen J. Kington Professor
in Environmental ChangeUniversity of Virginia
@Sco@Doney1
Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange
in an Evolving Climate
Bonan & DoneyScience 2018
Vulnerability Impact Adaptation