Ocean Acidification and the Challenges facing the American Lobster Fishery in a Changing

Ecosystem

Richard A. WahleUniversity of Maine | School of Marine Sciences

• Maine perilously dependent on one fishery.• Lobsters at historic highs, but will it last?• While UMaine leads research on lobster, OA effects are unknown.

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Co-chairs: Rick Wahle (UMaine) Andrea Battison (CrustiPath) Paul Anderson (ME SG)

Special issueVol. 70 no.11

Nov 2013

Animation Source: M. Fogarty, NMFS/NEFSC

$1.09 billionin 2012

As other fisheries collapse American lobsters surge….

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20,000

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60,000

80,000

100,000

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USCanada

Land

ings

(MT)

Landings

Landings

Source: US NMFS & Canada DFO

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

20,000

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MassRI

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

20,000

40,000

60,000

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Maine’s Historic Highs

Value: $364M in 2013

ME

MARI

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Met

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ons

Maine Lobster & Groundfish

1950-2010

Lobsteryellowtail flounderwolffishwitch flounderwinter flounderwhite hakesummer flounderstriped bassdogfishspiny dogfishskatesilver hakescupred hakeplaicehalibuthaddockgoosefish (Monk)cuskcunnerAtlantic codAcadian redfish

LobsterGroundfish

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A perilous dependency on one fishery

Ting-Li Wang/The New York Times

7Photo: Curtsinger (Nat. Geo.)

• deplete large predators• booming lobsters…

A Warming Gulf of Maine

Source: Mills et al. 2013

Since 1982:~1°C every 40 years

Since 2004:~1°C every 4 years

20°C

12°C 20°C

12°CHot and Cold Thresholds

1990 20122011

Southern New England’s receding lobster nurseries

Wahle et al. in prep

Narragansett Bay ↑Temp

↓DO, pH

Shell disease spreads north

1997 199

8

2000

2002

2003

Source: MA DMF, ME DMR

2012

Global Ocean Data Analysis Project

Ocean Acidification

• North Atlantic acidifying faster than elsewhere.• OA effects poorly studied.• Interactions of OA with other stressors even less studied.• Effects are species- and life-stage specific

(estimated 1700s – 1990s)

Embryos Larvae Juveniles Adults

Reis et al. 2009 ↑ Growth, Calcification

Keppel et al. 2012↓ Growth, Development

Arnold et al. 2009↓ Growth, Calcification

Agnalt et al. 2013↔ Growth ↑ Deformities

↔ Growth ↑ Deformities

Styf et al. 2014 ↔ Development

Long et al. 2009

↓Survival & Growth ↔ Calcification, ↓ Condition index

Long et al. 2009

↓Survival & Growth ↑ Calcification, ↔ Condition index

American Lobster (Homarus americanus )

European Lobster (Homarus gammarus )

Norwegian Lobster (Nephrops norvegicus )

King crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus ) Alaska

Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi ) Alaska

Ocean Acidification Research on Lobsters and Crabs

Forecasting puts the future in our hands

• Lead time • Choices • Resilience

Suction sampling

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1

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8. York, ME

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1

2

3

9. Beverly, MA

0

1

12. Buzzards Bay, MA

0

1

2

1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

13. Rhode Is.

0

110. Boston Harbor

0

1

2

11. Cape Cod Bay, MA

0

3

6

92. Beaver Hbr, NB

0

1

23. Jonesport, ME

0

1

24. Mt Desert Is, ME

0

1

25. Outer PenBay, ME

0

1

2

36. Mid-coast, ME

0

1

2

3

1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

7. Casco Bay, ME

0

3

1. Lobster Bay, NS

Suction Sampling 2013

ME

NH

MARI

NB

NS

PEI

Gulf of St. Lawrence

Gulf of Maine

1

23

457

6

98

12

10

1113

N m

-2

American Lobster Settlement Index – An Early warning?

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Proj

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LobsterForecasts

An Early warning system?

Yes… but no crystal ball.

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200123456789

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Eastern MEMidcoast MERhode Island

Land

ings

(mill

ion

lbs)

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Reported Landings

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

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Forecasts

Challenges for Maine’s fishery• Adapting to a shifting geography & shell disease. • Minimizing the cost of fishing while maximizing value.

Scientific Challenges• Weighing interactive effects of the diabolical trinity:

warming – hypoxia - acidification.• Assessing life stage- and species-specific responses. • Building infrastructure and collaborations to do long-term controlled studies.• Supporting long-term environmental monitoring.• Communication and outreach.

“We don’t really know the effects of ocean acidification on lobsters, but we do know the effects on shellfish and clams and it’s not positive. As long as the industrial nations of the world use fossil fuel, it’s going to get worse.”

Dave Cousins, President Maine Lobstermen’s Assn. Bangor Daily News 1/13/2014