OCDE Global Mobility

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SYNTHESIS REPORT

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Synthesis Report

Synthesis Report of the OECD project on

Environmentally Sustainable Transport EST

presented on occasion of the International est!Conference

4th to 6th October 2000 in Vienna, Austria.


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Synthesis Report on Environmentally

Sustainable Transport EST

Prepared on behalf of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry,

Environment and Water Management in co-operation with the Organisation

for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Conception and Project Management:

Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and

Water ManagementDivision Transport, Mobility, Regional Planning and Noise,

Robert Thaler, Renate Nagy

OECD Environment Directorate

Dr. Peter Wiederkehr, Philippe Crist

This Synthesis Report on the OECD Project Environmentally Sustainable

Transport (EST) was elaborated on the basis of the results of the case studies

undertaken by nine OECD Member Countries (Austria, Canada, France, It-

aly, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland)

The initial report was drafted by Richard Gilbert Centre for Sustainable

Transportation, Canada and was subsequently reviewed and completed by

theOECDWorkingGroup onTransport andtheEnvironmentandthe OECD

Environment Directorate Secretariat.

The presentations of the est! best practies examples were developed on the

basis of the entries and written materials submitted by the candidates and

were reviewed by Dr. Peter Wiederkehr, Philippe Crist and Robert Thaler.

The chapter on the report on the activities of the OECD Working GroupTransportand the Environment was drafted out by Dr. PeterWiederkehr and

Philippe Crist.

Editorial

Robert Thaler

Dr. Peter Wiederkehr

Philippe Crist

Nadia Caid

Renate Nagy

The Austrian Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and

Water Management expresses the warmest thanks to the OECD Environment

Directorate and in particular its highly committed professionals, Dr. Peter

Wiederkehr and Philippe Crist for their excellent work and co-operation.

Imprint

Media rights and publishing:

Austrian Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water

Management, OECD

Layout, Infographics and selection of photographs:

Agentur Bauer Wien, http://www.abw.at

Printed by: Atlas Druck, Austria

Copyright: Austrian Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment

and Water Management, October 2000; All rights reserved

Copyright on photographs: see source, others: OECD, Austrian Ministry of

Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management

ISBN 3-902 010-45-2

Acknowledgements

This report has been prepared and approved by the OECDs Working Group

on Transport under the Working Party on Pollution Prevention and Control

of the Environmental Policy Committee. The OECD would like to acknowl-

edgethe support andcommitmentof participating countriesand institutions,

in particular the Chairs of the Working Group, Francis Combrouze, France

(Chair 1995..1997), Robert Thaler, Austria (Chair since 1997) and

Dominique Dron (Co-Chair 1997..2000), France. The OECD would like to

acknowledge the importantassistanceand support provided by governmentofficials andexpertsfrom OECDMembercountriesduringthe preparationof

this report. In particular, the wealth of information contained in this report

would not have been possible without the contributions from the following

individuals:

Robert Thaler, Renate Nagy (Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Envi-

ronment and Water Management) and Romain Molitor, Andreas Kfer, Eva

Burian, Dietmar Pfeiler (TRAFICO), Karl Steininger, Birgit Friedl (University

of Graz) , Austria;

Julie Charbonneau, Kathleen Nadeau, Russ Robinson (Environment Can-

ada), Wayne Kauk (retired), Philip Kurys and Renetta Siemens (Transport

Canada), Neil Erwin and Lee Sims (IBI Group), Canada;

Francis Combrouze, DominiqueDron (Ministry of Spatial Planning andEnvi-

ronment), Alain Morcheoine (ADEME) and Bertrand Chateau (enerdata),

France;

Norbert Gorissen (Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Protection and

Reactor Safety), Axel Friedrich, Hedwig Verron from the Federal Environ-mental Agency, Andreas Pastowski (Wuppertal Institute), Werner

Rothengatter and Burkhard Schade (IWW University of Karlsruhe), Ger-

many;

Gloria Visconti (Ministry of Environment), Massimo Cozzone (ANPA),

Alberto Frondaroli and Pier Giorgio DArmini (CSST), Italy;

Keiko Segawa (Japan Environmental Agency), Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya

University), Japan;

Martin Kroon (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment,),

Karst Geurs and Bert van Wee (RIVM), the Netherlands;

Eli-Marie sen (Ministry of Environment), Harald Minken, Peter Christensen

and Farideh Ramjerdi (TOI), Norway;

Stefan Andersson and Lars Westermark (Environmental Protection Agency)

and Peter Steen () (Stockholm University), Sweden;

Harald Jenk (Federal Agency for Environment, Forests and Landscapes) and

Andr Schrade (Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy andCommunications) and Mario Keller (infras), Switzerland; and

John Adams (University College London), United Kingdom.

Each of the case studies involved a great number of experts and staff in the

ten participating countries. Their contribution is gratefully acknowledged.

A very special acknowledgement is due to Richard Gilbert of the Canadian

Centre for Sustainable Transportation who helped as the project consultant

to fashion the thinking behind the project.

The main responsibility for this work rested with Grard Dorin (until 1996),

Peter Wiederkehr and Philippe Crist (Pollution Prevention and Control Divi-

sion, OECD Environment Directorate) under the supervision of Rebecca

Hanmer (Head of Division, 1993..1997) and Jean Cinq-Mars (Head of Divi-

sion, 1997..2000), Bill Long (Environment Director, 1987..1997) and Joke

Waller-Hunter (Environment Director). They were assisted by a number of

staff, including Nadia Caid, Cilla Cerredo-Williamson, Jane Kynaston, Lyndia

Levasseur and Freda ORourke (retired).

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environmentally sustainable transport


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Synthesis Report

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD OF THE AUSTRIAN FEDERAL MINISTER FOR AGRICULTURE,FOREST, ENVIRONMENT AND WATER MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

FORWORDOF THEDEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL, OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

TRANSPORTSTRENDSAND IMPACTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

The largeincrease in transportactivity in the 20thcentury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Transporthas global environmental impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Transporthas localand regionalenvironmental impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Transport is a majoruserof non-renewableresources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Transports unaccounted costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Long-term trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

A NEW POLICY APPROACHIS REQUIRED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

THE OECDS EST PROJECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Purposes and overviewof the EST project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Characterising Environmentally Sustainable Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Visions of transport in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Policy instrumentsand strategies to achieve EST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

The economic and social implications of BAUand EST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

CONCLUSIONSFROM THE EST PROJECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

END NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

BESTPRACTICESFORTHEATTAINMENT OF EST. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51The EST Best Practice Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

BestPractice for Communication and AwarenessRaising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60,63,69

BestPractice for Culture and the Arts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

BestPractice for Education and Youth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

BestPractice for Mobility Management for Freight Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61,62

BestPractice for Mobility Management for PassengerTransport . . . . . . . . 52,56,57,58,59,67

BestPractice for Technology and Infrastructure Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . 53, 54,64,65,68

The forty-threecandidatesof the EST BestPractice Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

OECDWORKINGGROUP ON TRANSPORT ANDTHE ENVIRONMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Further Publications on EST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73


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FOREWORD

Despite many positive aspects of transport for individu-als as well as for the economy and the society, transportis one of the sectors which presents the greatest chal-lenge to sustainable development.

The projected further increase of transportin particu-

lar road and air trafficchallenges environmental andtransport policy-makers to further reduce transports en-

vironmental and health burdens and bring transport inline with the principles of sustainability at national andinternational level.

The OECDs work on Environmentally SustainableTransport (EST) opens a new strategic perspective forpolicy making focusing on sustainable development. Itpaints an appealing picture of a sustainble transport fu-ture and highlights a target-oriented policy approach asa key tool for the political agenda. Environmentally Sus-tainable Transport can be defined on the basis of envi-ronmental and health quality objectives. It can be at-

tained within a generation. What is needed is a balancedmix of technology, on the one hand, and transport de-mand management and modal shifts, on the other. A

well-tuned implementation process involving the keyplayers of transport and environment is of high impor-tance. The conclusions drawn from the OECD EST pro-ject show promising ways out of the trap of unsustain-able business-as-usual in transport.

The EST initiative carried out by the OECD WorkingGroup on Transport and Environment and actively in-

volving more than a dozen of countries, including Aus-tria, is an excellent example of not only developing an

innovative policyapproach, butalso of a future-orientedco-operation between OECD countries for sustainabletransport. Through these projects successful partner-ships among the Alpine countries and within the CEI re-gion have been developed leading to a better commonunderstanding of problems, possible solutions and theneed for enhanced co-operation and concerted action.Last but not least,the EST approach was applied forallof

Austria to explore the long-term strategic options forsustainable Austrian transport.

The work on EST has now culminatedin the OECD Con-ference on Environmentally Sustainable Transport(EST) - Futures, Strategies and Best Practice in Vienna

in October 2000, where objectives, strategies and theways towards sustainable transport are presented aswell as Best Practice examples and Guidelines for theimplementation of Environmentally Sustainable Trans-port.

Austria supports the EST initiative of the OECD. In par-ticular, following up the Vienna Conference, focusingon implementation of EST and the incorporation of theEST Guidelinesrequested by the OECD EnvironmentMinisterial in 1998 and the Ministers Shared Goals of

Actioninto the ongoing OECD project on sustainabledevelopment are now key issues on the agenda.

On this occasion, I would like to express the warmestthanks to the OECD Environment Directorate and itshighly committed professionals for the excellentco-operation.

Thisbrochure comprises the synthesis of the EST projectand its conclusions. It highlights successful Best Practiceexamples for EST and provides an overview of OECDendeavors in the area of transport and environment. Itserves as an important information tool for fu-ture-oriented policy approaches towards sustainabletransport.

Wilhelm MoltererFederal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry,Environment and Water Management

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Synthesis Report

Wilhelm Molterer


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FOREWORD

Conventional approaches to mitigating transports envi-ronmental impacts have taken observed and projectedtransport trends as givens and have sought to assess theenvironmental impact of these developments ex-post.This approach has led to important efficiency gains and

has helped to reduce certain environmental and healthrisks stemming from the transport sector. It hasnot andlikely will not , however, lead us towards meetinglong-term environmental objectives.

A new policy approach is needed which places environ-mental criteria up front along with other policy goals.Recognising this need, the OECD Environmental PolicyCommittees Task Force on Transport initiated in 1994the project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport(EST)to give some precision to the concept through theuse of criteria which can be quantified and have envi-ronmental significance. The overall objectives of theproject are to provide an understanding of EST, its impli-cations and requirements, and to develop methods andpolicy guidelines towards its realisation. The core of theEST approach is to develop long-term scenarios andidentify instruments and strategies capable of achievingEnvironmentally Sustainable Transport as part of overallefforts to achieve sustainable development. Unlike con-

ventional approaches to transport system development,the EST project is a backcasting exercise. One or moredesirable futures are described and policy developmentis guided by an assessment of what is required toachieve these visions.

At the 1998 Environmental Ministerial meeting, a set of

Shared Goals for Action were adopted as an expressionof OECD Environment Ministers commitment to imple-ment sustainable development. This is part of a largerOECD initiative on sustainable development. In the pur-suit of the Shared Goals, Ministers agreed to strengtheninternational co-operation in meeting global and re-gional environmental commitments by giving particu-lar focus to key cross-sectoral issues and the strategic di-

rections for environmentally sustainable transport de-

veloped at the OECD Vancouver Conference and the

UNECE Conference on Transport and the Environment

in Vienna. Ministers called for the OECD to further de-velop work on environmentally sustainable transport

(EST), including guidelines for implementing EST prin-

ciples, and paying particular attention to the recom-

mendations of the Vienna Declaration on Transport

and the Environment.

The work has been carried out by six teams of expertsfrom nine countries, each with a separate geographicalfocus. The case studies include Sweden, the Nether-lands, Germany, the Quebec-Windsor corridor in Can-ada, the greater Oslo region in Norway and the Alpineregion comprising parts of Austria, France, Italy andSwitzerland. Related studies have been undertaken by

Japan and jointly by UNEP, the OECD and Austria, under

the Central European Initiative(CEI) for fourteen Centraland Eastern European economies in transition.

The OECD would like to acknowledge the contributionand support from numerous government officials andexperts from Member countries and international or-ganisations involved in this project. In particular, the

wealth of information and experiencegathered through-out this project would not have been possible withoutthe productive co-operation and commitment of theproject teams in the participating countries.

This co-operation has resulted in a forward looking andencouraging project, whose findings can assist other

countries in their progress towards sustainable trans-port. A setof guidelines for ESThas also been developedto give some practical and detailed suggestions on howto move towards EST. The results of the project will con-tinue to stimulate and frame efforts within the OECD todevelop innovative policy approaches for sustainabletransport activity.

Thorvald MoeDeputy Secretary-General, OECD

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Thorvald Moe


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SUMMARY

Transport at the turn of the century displays several unsustainable trends. Con-tinued growth in the number of motorised vehicles and their use places major bur-dens on the availability of natural resources, notably oil. Emissions from the burn-ing of motor vehicle fuel contribute to global and local damage to ecosystems andhuman health. Other concerns related to the use of motorised transport include

traffic accidents, high noise levels that harm human health, and land use patternsthat interfere with habitat, migration patterns, and ecosystem integrity.

The OECDs project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) was under-taken to help respond to these trends and make transport sustainable. Nine coun-tries contributed to sixcase studies. ESTwasdefined,envisioned, and then quanti-fied in terms of internationally agreed standards for ecosystem and human health.Six EST criteriafor noise, land use, and emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogenoxides, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matterwere set for the year2030 in relation to conditions in 1990. The teams developed EST scenarios consis-tent with the criteria and also business-as-usual (BAU) projections for 2030.

Both the BAU and EST scenarios were characterised by high levels of access topeople, places, goods and services in comparison to 1990. In the case of the ESTscenario, however, providing for this high level of access was accomplished with

stabilised overall travel volume, especially in regards to passenger transport. TheEST scenarios involved more use of public and non-motorised forms of transportand new mobility services and less travel by cars and aircraft for passenger trans-port. For freight transport, the EST scenarios indicate improved supply chain man-agement and more movement of freight by rail than by road. The EST scenarios

were assessed in relation to the BAU projections to determine how the EST criteriacould be achieved. The assessment suggested that about half of the reduction

would result from improvements in technology and half would result fromchanges in transport activity.

Working back from the EST objectives (backcasting), the project teams developedpackages of policy instruments considered capable of securing the attainment ofEST. The instrument packages differed greatly among the teams, suggesting thatthere aremany potentialroutesto EST. Work wasalso undertaken to identify someof theeconomicand social implicationsof moving towards ESTratherthan contin-uing with business-as-usual. The overall impacts of moving towards EST wouldappear to be positive: economies would remain robust, societys costs would belower, and there could be social advantages.

EST is an appealing, achievable objective that will require a broad-based and con-certed commitment. Reaching EST will ensure that the transport sector plays itsrole in the quest for sustainable development. The most important challenges forthe attainment of EST concern well-tuned phasing of implementation strategiesand their component policies and instruments as well as the involvement of stake-holders from government, industry, non-governmental organisations and the pub-lic. Another important challenge for achieving EST concerns tailoring the projectfindings to various, regional situations and focusing on high growth sectors, suchas freight, aviation and leisure traffic. Finally, an objectives-based approach, as forthe EST project, serves as a promising model for other sectors.

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The large increase in transport activity

in the 20th century

Several remarkable rates of growth set the 20th century apart in the course of hu-man development. They include growth in population, mobility, degree of urban-ization, and information flow. Population growth shows signs of becoming sus-tainable; the growth in mobility does not.

What was mostly new to the 20th century was not mobility or even mechanizedmobility but mechanized mobility by road and air. Travel has been a part of hu-man experience since the migrations of our distant ancestors out of Africa, to Eu-rope and Asia and to Australasia. The Americas have been the end points of someof the most astonishing movements of people: from Asia, across what is now theBering Strait to as far south as Terra del Fuego, in the millennia before history, andmore recently from Europeand Africa. Until themid-1800.s, travel everywhere wasuncomfortable, dangerous, and enormously time-consuming.

Trainsmade thedifference. Thegrowth in their usein thelate 19th century wasex-traordinary. Nevertheless, during the first few decades of the 20th century in North

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Synthesis Report

TRANSPORTS TRENDS AND IMPACTS

Travel has been a part of

human experience since the

migrations of our distant

ancestors out of Africa.

Figure 1. Worldwide per-capita movement of people and freight, 1850..1990

Source: Centre for Sustainable Transportation (Ref. 5)


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Americaand some decades later elsewhereeven more powerful mobility phe-nomena took hold. They were the private automobile and its freight counterpart,the truck or lorry.

During the 20th century, the motorized movement of people and goods both in-creased more than one hundredfold, while the total human population increasedfourfold. Figure 1 shows the trendsby mode for the movement of both peopleandfreight.1

The growth has not been evenly distributed. Each year, the average U..S. residenttravels almost30,000 kilometres, mostlyby car. Theaverage Germanresident trav-els about half that distance, also mostly by car. The average resident of the worldspoorest countries travels less than 3,000 kilometres, mostly by foot or bicycle. 2

Freight is harder to allocate, but it is clear that large disparities also exist betweenthe richest and the poorest countries.

The U..S. was the first country to become automobilised and remains the leader inthis respect, with some 800 road vehicles per thousand residents. Almost 90 percent of these road vehicles are personal automobiles and other vehicles used forpersonal transport, i..e., light vans and sport-utility vehicles. Until the 1960.s, theU..S. had morethanhalfthe vehiclesin use in the world. Now,as Figure 2 shows,ithas about 30 per cent of the total.3 The growth in the U..S. road-vehicle fleet has

slowed, and is nowmostlythe resultof population growth. Theworld fleet of roadvehicles grows at about twice the rate of population growth.

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Figure 2. Motorized road vehicles in use, United States and the rest of the world, together

with world population, 1930..1995 Source: AAMA (Ref. 1)

During the 20th century, the

motorized movement of

people and goods both

increased more than one

hundredfold.

The world fleet of road

vehicles grows at about twice

the rate of population growth.


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Figure 3 shows how the worlds road-vehicle fleet is distributed.4 Personal vehi-cles dominate everywhere, but much less so in poorer countries. The large differ-ence in rate of car ownership between OECD countries and the rest of the world isportrayed in Figure 4.5 The disparity in ownership rates between rich and poorcountries continues to serve as a stimulus to emulation. Indeed, if car ownershiplevelsworldwide were the same as those in OECD countries, there would be somethree billion cars in theworldrather than thepresent 540 million. Present trends, il-lustrated in Figure 5, would lead to a global car fleet of 1.2 billion and suggest thata world of three billion cars is a distant prospect.6

The number of vehicles on the road is an importantperhaps the most impor-tantfactor in determining total distance travelled and thus environmental im-pacts andresourceuse. This is illustrated in Figure 6, which shows that theaveragedistance travelled per car in OECD countries has been remarkably constant from

year to year, even as car fleets have grown.7 Improvements in fuel efficiency andemissions control have been much more than offset by growth in vehicle fleetsand thus vehicle use.

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Synthesis Report

Figure 4. Personal 4-wheeled vehicles per capita, OECD regions and rest of world

Source: OECD (Ref. 30)]

Figure 3. Global motorised road-vehicle stock, 1998 Source: FT Automotive (Ref. 11)

If car ownership levels

worldwide were the same as

those in OECD countries, there

would be some 3 billion cars in

the world rather than the

present 540 million.


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Cars dominate the road-vehicle fleet in OECD countries, but consumption of die-

sel fuelused mainly in larger commercial vehicles (trucks or lorries, andbuses)has been increasing at a higherrate than consumption of thepetrol (gaso-line) used in cars and other light vehicles. This is evident from Figure 7.8 Between1985 and 1995, the annual rate of increase in use of diesel fuel for road transport

was 4.6 per cent; that for petrol (gasoline) was 1.8 per cent. Energy efficiency hasimproved less for diesel engines, commercial traffic has increased more than cartraffic, and there has been a continuing shift towards use of diesel-engined cars inEurope and Japan prompted in part by tax differences. Diesel engines are morefuel-efficient than petrol engines and therefore result in lower emissions per kilo-metre of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas; but they produce moreemissions of otherpollutants, notably breathableparticulates and nitrogen oxides.

Worldwide, use of gasoline is expected to stabilise and even decline, as shown inFigure 8, but use of diesel fuel is expected to increase, especially in non-OECD

countries.9

Transports environmental performance has not compared well with that of othersectors, notwithstanding the efficiency improvements in gasoline engines and thegreater use of diesel fuel. Figure 9 shows that energy production and industry inthe European Unionhavebecome relatively uncoupled from energy consumptionand CO2 emissions, i..e., there has been growth in activity without growth in emis-sions.10 This has not been the case for transport (or agriculture). Figure 9 alsoshows ongoing reductions in certain emissions from transport, largely the result ofthe introduction of three-way catalytic converters for petrol engines.

In conclusion, the projections illustrated in Figure 5, 8 and 9 suggest that withoutmajor changes in policies and practice, future transport activity could well con-tinue the trends of the 20th century.

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Consumption of diesel

fuelused mainly in larger

commercial vehicleshas

been increasing at a higher

rate than consumption of

petrol.

Figure 5. Motor vehicle fleet, OECD and the rest of the world, 1990..2030

Source: OECD (Ref. 31)


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The growth in motorized mobility has been mostly positive. It has facilitated andeven stimulated just about everything regarded as progress. It has helped expandintellectual horizons and deter starvation. It has allowed efficient production andthe ready distribution required for widespread consumption. Comfort in travel isnow commonplace, as is access to the products of distant places.

But there have been costsmostly environmental coststhat are eroding thebenefits. Pollution from transport and from many other sources is leading to seri-ous environmental degradation and negative impacts on human health.

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Synthesis Report

Figure 7. Road fuel use in the OECD area Source: OECD (Ref. 26, Ref. 30)

Figure 6. Relative trends vehicle ownership, use and fuel efficiency by OECD region (car includes all motorized personal

4-wheeled vehicles) Source: OECD (Ref. 26 and 30)

The growth in motorized

mobility has facilitated and

even stimulated just about

everything regarded as

progress.

There have been costs of

transportmostly

environmental coststhat are

eroding transports benefits.


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If transports direct impact on the environment could be mitigated by the develop-ment of vehicles that emit no pollutants, we would still face challenges of world-

wide mass motorization. We would have the congestion of several billion vehiclesrather than the present several hundred million. Several billion vehicles wouldembody and consume a very large portion of the planets limited resources, a mat-ter also addressed below.

And, even if we could have mass motorization without congestion and with littleenergy and resource consumption, there could still be major problems in the formof the adverse social consequences of high levels of motorised mobility. Up to apoint, the spread in mobility throughout a society seems to confer widespreadbenefits. With further increases in mobilityinto a condition that has been calledby some hypermobilitysocieties may become more polarized, more dispersed,more anonymous, less child-friendly, less culturally distinctive, less physicallyhealthy, more crime-ridden, and even less democratic.11

Figure 10 present the view of two respected researchers, one U..S. and one Euro-pean, shows that the growthof transports costs in relation to itsbenefits is not sus-tainable, and that fundamental changes are required.

The growth in transports environmental impacts has been less than the growth intransport activity. This has happened because of major improvements in transportfuel efficiency and pollution control. Energy use is the main source of impacts.Over the 20th century, transport energy use per unit of activity fell by between 80and 90 per cent, consistent with energy efficiency changes in other technologicalprocesses. Accordingly, transports overall impacts may have increased by a factorof only 15..20 rather than by the factor of more than 100 that has characterisedgrowth in transport activity. The growth in transport impacts is leading to increas-ing degradation of ecosystem and human health, it is therefore unsustainable.

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Figure 8. Actual and projected fuel use for transport in OECD and other countries,

light-duty and heavy-duty road vehicles, 1990..2030 Source: OECD (Ref. 31)

The rate of increase in

transports impacts is much

beyond what the planet can

tolerate; it is therefore

unsustainable.


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The challenge for the 21st century is to maintain and even enhance transportsbenefits while reducing its impacts to sustainable levels. The OECDs Environ-mentally SustainableTransport(EST)projectdescribed belowwasundertakento help address this challenge.

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Synthesis Report

Near the end of the 20th century, the belief in the desirability of perpetual growth in mobility and

transport has started to fade. In many countries,highway accessibilityis so ubiquitous that trans-port cost has almost disappeared as a location factor for industry.In metropolitan areas,the myth

that rising travel demand will ever be satisfied by more motorways has been shattered by reap-

pearing congestion. People have realised that the car has not only brought freedom of movement

but also air pollution, traffic noise and accidents. It has become obvious that in the face of finite

fossil fuel resources and the needto reduce greenhouse gas emissions the use of petroleum can-

not grow forever. There is now broad agreement that present trends in transport are not sustain-

able, and many conclude that fundamental changes in the technology, design, operation, and fi-

nancing of transport systems are needed.

David L. Greene and Michael Wegener, Journal of Transport Geography, 1997.

Figure 10. Transports benefits and costs

Figure 9. Sectoral trends in activity and in emissions of pollutants, European Union, 1990..2010

Source: EEA (Ref. 8)

The challenge for the 21st

century is to maintain

transports benefits while

reducing its impacts to

sustainable levels.


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Transport has global environmental impacts

Transport activity has three global environmental impacts of special concern. It isresponsible for emissions of radiatively active compounds (greenhouse gases, orGHGs) into the troposphere where they trap heat reflected from the surface of theplanet. This process elevates global temperatures and thus changes the Earths cli-mate. Transportactivity also results in emissionsof compounds that thin the strato-

spheric ozone layer and thereby cause damaging infiltration of ultraviolet radia-tion. The third global environmental impact arises from the transport-related pro-duction of persistent organic pollutants and their effects on biological systems.

Transports effect on climate change mostly arises from combustion of the refinedpetroleum that comprises almost all transport fuel. The combustion product ofgreatest concern is carbon dioxide (CO2), which is responsible for about twothirds of anthropogenic radiative forcing.12 Emissions of CO2 from the burning offossil fuels increased by a factor of seven during the 20th century; with a corre-sponding increase of about a third in atmospheric CO2 levels (see Figure 11).13Av-erage temperatures have risen as illustrated in Figure 12, which shows notonly theincrease over thelast 150 yearsbutacceleration in therate of warming over the last25 years.14 Some parts of the planet have warmed more. Notable is the Antarctic

Peninsula, where average temperatureshave risen by 2.5C over thelast 25 years.

16


Figure 11. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the last millennium

Source: IPCC (Ref. 16)

Transports effect on climate

change mostly arises from

combustion of the refined

petroleum that comprises

almost all transport fuel.


17/50

Transport directly contributes about 20 per cent of anthropogenic CO2 emissionsworldwide, and close to 30 per cent of these emissions in OECD countries.15 Theproportions would be perhaps 25 per cent higher in each case if indirect contribu-tions were included, such as CO2 emissions during the production of vehicles, fu-els, and infrastructure, and during disposal of vehicles and infrastructure.

There are several other GHGs, some of which are emitted as a result of transportactivity. Methane is released during petroleum extraction; nitrous oxide (N2O) ispresent in vehicle exhaust gases; butexcept for aviationmore than 90 per centof transports contribution to climate change comes from CO2 produced during

17

Synthesis Report

Figure 12. Surface temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere over the last millennium

Source: Geophysical Research Letters (Ref. 23)

Transport directly contributes

about 20% of anthropogenic

CO2 worldwide, and close to

30% of these emissions in

OECD countries.

Figure 13. Global trends in emissions of carbon dioxide from motor vehicle operation, by

region, 1990..2020 Source: OECD (Ref 31)


18/50

fossil-fuel combustion. Trends in CO2 emissions are shown in Figure 13, where itcan be seen that increases are expected in all parts of the world.16

Release of exhaust gases at an altitude of about10..11 kilometres, where commer-cial aircraft fly, results in a total greenhouse effect that is two to four times greaterthan that from the CO2 produced by the burning of the aircrafts fuel. At this alti-tuderoughly the boundary between the troposphere and the stratospheretheNOx in the exhaust gases appears to be especially effective in facilitating the for-

mation of ozone, and ozone appears to be especially potent as a greenhouse gas.Aviation accounts for about 10 per cent of motorized person-kilometres world-wide, and for less than one per cent of freight movement, but because of this alti-tude effect it mayalready result in about a quarter of transports contribution to cli-mate change. Aviation is the fastest growing mode for the movement of bothfreight and people. Figure 14 shows how projections based on current trends andon the present assessment of the altitude effect have aviations global warming ef-fect exceeding that of trucks (lorries) or cars in 2030.17

Transports contribution to the thinning of stratospheric ozone arises chieflythrough the use of fluorocarbons as coolants in vehicle air-conditioning systems.Themost potentof these coolants (chlorofluorocarbons,CFCs) areno longer usedin new vehicles; compounds with a lesser but still significant impact

(hydrochlorofluorocarbons, HCFCs) are used increasingly. However their impactmay partially be offset by ozone formation induced by high-flying aircraft at thetroposphere-stratosphere boundary.

How these global atmospheric impacts can affect human health, directly and indi-rectly, is illustrated in Figure 15.18

18


Release of exhaust gases at

high altitude results in a total

greenhouse effect much

greater than that from the CO2produced by the burning of

the aircrafts fuel.

Figure 14. Estimated global warming impact of transport modes, worldwide, 1990..2030



19/50

Dioxins and furans are the main persistent organic pollutants (POPs) associatedwith transport activity. POPs, according to the United Nation EnvironmentalProgramme (UNEP), are chemical substances that persist in the environment,bioaccumulate through the food chain, and pose a risk of causing adverse effectson human health and the environment. UNEP has adopted a mandate to secureearly agreement on an international legally binding treaty to reduce or eliminateemissions of twelve specified POPs, including dioxins and furans.

An assessment of the sources of release of dioxin-like compoundse.g., dioxinsand furansin the U..S. suggested that road traffic was the third most important

source, after incineration and smelting, accounting for approximately three percent of total emissions of these compounds. Diesel fuel use was responsible forabout two thirds of road transports contribution.19 Per unit of fuel consumed, die-sel engines produce about seven times more dioxin-like compounds by weightthan gasoline engines.

19

Synthesis Report

Figure 15. Links between global and local atmospheric pollution and human healthSource: World Climate News (Ref. 24)

Dioxins and furans are the

main persistent organic

pollutants associated with

transport activity.

Per unit of fuel consumed,

diesel engines produce much

more dioxin-like compoundsthan gasoline engines.


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Transport has local and regional

environmental impacts

Environmental sustainability is both a global and a regional or local matter. Dam-age that is less than global may allow for the continuation of individual species inparticular or life in general. Such damage may accordingly be repairable. Never-theless, there are several reasons for considering regional and local impacts when

addressing sustainability issues.

Onereason is that regional andlocal impacts, ratherthan global impacts, areof im-mediate and everyday concern to most people. Action to moderate transports im-pacts, whether local or global, are likely to occur only if local impacts are ad-dressed.

Another reason is that local and regional impacts can become global, either be-cause they are happening in a large number of places or because the interdepen-dencies among species cause a local effect to have a global impact.

Trends in locally and regionally acting emissions from transport

Figure 16 shows trends in emissions from mobile sources of three local and re-

gional pollutants of major concern: carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic com-pounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOx).20 In OECD countries, emissions of allthree pollutants have fallen during the past decade and are expected to continueto decline, although not by enough to improve air quality standards to WHO lim-its. This trend has largely been the result of the introduction of three-way catalyticconverters. Worldwide, emissions of these pollutants are expected to increase.

CO, VOCs, and NOx arehazardous pollutants. CO interferes with theabsorption ofoxygen by haemoglobin, thus starving the brain and other vital tissues, exacerbat-ing cardiovascular disease and causing neural damage. Several VOCs are carcino-genic. NOx cause respiratory, ocular, and cardiovascular problems.21

20


Figure 16. Global motor vehicle emissions by region, 1990..2020, in millions of tonnes Source: OECD (Ref. 31)

Action to moderate

transports impacts, local and

global, may occur only if local

impacts are addressed.

In OECD countries, emissions

of CO, VOCs, and NOx areexpected to continue to

decline. Worldwide,

emissions of these pollutants

are expected to increase.


21/50

Another hazardous pollutant, ground-level ozone, the main constituent of photo-chemical (summer) smog, is formedfrom the actionof sunlight on NOx and VOCs.Outside urban areas, production of ozone is usually limited by the availability ofNOx because of the abundance of VOCs from plant sources. In the largest metro-politan areas,smog production canbe limited by theavailability of VOCs.22 Ozoneharms almost all biological tissues, causing damage to plants and particularly tothe deeper regions of the respiratory tracts of animals. In North America, ozone isbelieved responsible for between 10 and 20 per cent of hospital admissions for re-spiratory ailments during summer months.23

Smog also contains NOx, VOCs, and ultrafine particulate matter. Diesel enginesare the main source of airborne particulate matter, some of which is carcinogenicand fine enough (PM10 and PM2.5)24 to penetrate deeply into the lungs. Concernsabout the carcinogenicity of diesel exhaust have been raised since the 1980.s, andseveral government agencies in North America and Europe classify diesel exhaustas a carcinogen.

Motor vehicle emissions also contribute to acidification and eutrophicationthrough sulphur and nitrogen deposition.

Figure 17 shows recorded exceedances of World Health Organization standardsand guidelines for ambient levels of these four and several other pollutants frommobile sources during 1993.25 The long-term guideline for ozone wasexceeded atalmost all of the 602 sites providing relevant data; the long-term guideline for NO2(NOx) was exceeded at about half of the 1,481 sites providing data on NO2.

Transport activity usually contributes more than half of all local and regional airpollution. The exact proportions vary with the pollutant and with the location.

21

Synthesis Report

Figure 17. OECD urban sites exceeding WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 1993

Source: OECD (Ref. 27)

Diesel engines are the main

source of airborne particulate

matter.


22/50

Across OECD countries in 1997, transport was the largest source of carbon monox-ide in the air from human activity (89 per cent of the total), of nitrogen oxides (52per cent), and of volatile organic compounds (44 per cent).26 Through being themain source of NOx, the usual limiter of ozone production (see above), transport

wasand continues to bethe major contributor to ground-level ozone.

Of special concern may be drivers and other users of road transport. Several stud-ies suggest that pollution levels inside vehicles can be much higher than ambientlevels, andeven higherthan the levels to which nearbycyclistsand pedestrians areexposed.27 Children are more vulnerable to poor air quality and they appear to bespending more time being driven to school and other destinations; their in-vehicleexposure may thus be of special concern.28

Transport and land use

The land used for transport infrastructure has numerous environmental impacts.These include degradation of niches and ecosystems, interference with naturaldrainage, and prevention of species migration. Roads arethe main transportuse ofland, but the usefor accessrampsandparking facilities shouldbe noted,as well asland use for other transport modes, including train tracks and aircraft runways.

There are no good data on land take for transport. Data are available on the extentof OECD countries road networks, with separate counts of restricted-access roads

(freeways, expresswaysor motorways). Some of these data are summarised in Fig-ure 18, which shows how the lengths per capita of all roads and restricted-accessroads have changed in several OECD countries since 1970.29

Perhaps surprisingly, the extent of the total road network per capitahas changedlittle since 1975; indeed, it has fallen in several of the represented countries. How-ever, the corresponding extent of restricted-access roads has increased dramati-cally in most cases. These roads are typically much wider than average; they oc-cupy much more land per kilometre of length. Moreover, they are generally lessrespectful of existing contours and obstacles and require displacement of some

22


Transport activity usually

contributes more than half of

all local and regional air

pollution.

The air quality inside vehicles

may be much worse than

outside, raising special

concerns about childrens

exposure.

Figure 18. Extent of road network per capita in several OECD Member countries,

1970..1995. Source: OECD (Ref. 30)

Motorways require

displacement of 130 times

more matter than equivalent

lengths of other roads.


23/50

130times more matterthan constructionof equivalent lengths of other roads.30Ac-cordingly, their environmental impacts are greater.

Although the extent of the total road network may be relatively unchanged, theland take for transport may nevertheless have increased greatly with wideningsof all types of roads and with the proliferation of parking and access facilities.

Transport infrastructure, mainly roads, consumes about 25..40 per cent of land inurban areas of the OECD(more in North America) and less than10 per cent inruralareas. The road network occupies 93 per cent of the total area of land used fortransport in the European Union. Rail is responsible for four per cent of land take,and airports for less than one per cent. Per passenger-kilometre travelled, railwaysrequire less than a third of the land taken by passenger cars, although the specificrequirements of high-speed rail linescan reduce this advantage.31Aviation may beeven less land-intensive than rail.32 Land use for transport infrastructure (roadsand parking, rail corridors, airports and harbours) is expected to increase duringthe next few decades because of the increase in transport activity. The map in Fig-ure 19 shows the extent of what are regarded by the European Environmental

Agency as pressure areas from urban and transport activity.33

23

Synthesis Report

Figure 19. Pressures by urban areas and transport network. Source: EEA (Ref. 8)

Per passenger-kilometre

travelled, railways require less

than a third of the land taken

by passenger cars.


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There are well-established indirect relationships between land use and transport.With increases in land use for human purposes come increases in requirements fortravel. This is especially noticeable at the edges of conurbations, wherelow-density development is associated with high daily travel rates, as illustratedfor the Toronto regionin Figure 20.34When arable land is displaced, there can alsobe an increase in transport, to bring farm products from greater distances.

In the United States between 1982 and 1992, the amount of land dedicated to ur-

ban purposes increasedfrom 210,000 to 260,000square kilometres, i..e.,atarateofabout 70per cent above the rateof growth of the populations of the urban regions.The 50,000 km2 of converted land included 21,000 km2 of forestland, 15,000 km2

of cultivated cropland, and 9,500 km2 of pastureland.35 Figure 21 provides an il-lustration of this for one part of the United States.

The phenomenon whereby urban areas spread at a much higher rate than popula-tion growth is known as urban sprawl. This type of expansionof urban areas, typi-calof many OECD countries, notably theU..S.,Canada, andAustralia, is associated

with very high levels of fossil fuel use for transport and other purposes, and mas-sive appropriation of what is often prime agricultural land, with further transport

24


Figure 20. Travel and car ownership in concentric parts of the Toronto Region, 1996


Number of trips perday per person

2.06 2.23 2.26 2.51

Motorized distancetravelled (km)

12.5 15.0 17.3 25.7

Householdswith no car

52% 31% 17% 6%

Residential density

(persons per sq-km ofurbanized area)

8,500 5,900 2,900 2,000

The situation in the six-county area of northeastern Illinois gives a particular picture of the vora-

cious appetite for undeveloped land of the advancing urban frontier. The overall population of

the area increased by only 4.1 per cent between 1970 and 1990, but residential land consumption

increased by 46 per cent. The trend is set to continue. The Michigan Society of Planning Officials

projects a 63..87 increase in the amount of urbanised land in the state between 1990 and 2020,

even though the population is expected to increase by only 12 per cent.Much of the newly urban-

ised land will be dedicated to the transport purposes that make the conversionof landboth possi-

ble and desirable.

Steve Thorp et. al, Impacts of Changing Land Use, State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference

(SOLEC), 1996

Figure 21. Advancing sprawl in north-eastern Illinois

With increases in land use for

human purposes come

increases in requirements for

travel.

Urban sprawl is associated

with very high levels fossil

fuel use for transport, and

massive appropriation of what

is often prime agricultural

land.


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implications in relation to food supply. Urban sprawl can be distinguished fromthe expansion of urban areas in developing countries, which for the most part ac-commodates population growth at a density similar to that of the existing urbanarea.

The difference between the two kinds of spread is evident in a comparison of theurban regions of Mexico City and Los Angeles. The population of both regions in-creased byclose to 50per cent overthe period 1970to 1990. The urbanized areaof

Mexico City also increased by about 50 per cent while that of Los Angeles in-creased by 300 per cent, a six-fold greater rate. In many U..S. urban regions, the ra-tio between the rate of increase in the urban area and the rate of increase in thepopulation over the same period was higher: New York 8 times; St. Louis, 10times; Chicago, 11 times. Some urban regions, e. .g., Cleveland, recorded an in-crease in the extent of the urbanized area even though their population fell duringthat period.36

Noise from transport

Transport noise, particularly road transport noise, is the major source of externalacoustic nuisance in urban areas. It affects peoples well-being at lower levels;higher levels are detrimental to health, e..g., they contribute to sleep loss and dis-turbed sleep, and to high blood pressure and cardiovascular diseases.37

Figure 22 shows that in 1994, about 30 percent of the population of the EuropeanUnion was exposed to traffic noise levels above 55 dB(A), and some 13 per centabove 65 dB(A). The proportions are lower in North America, but in both regionsroad traffic noise is by far the major contributor to urban noise and is a significantcause of disturbance and ill-health. Some 10 per cent of the population of the Eu-ropean Union is estimated to be seriously annoyed by aircraft noise, i..e., above

25

Synthesis Report

Figure 22. Population exposure to transport noise in the European Union in 1994

Source: IWW/INFRAS (Ref. 19)

Road transport is the major

source of noise in urban areas.


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55 dB(A) and little change in the incidence of exposure to high noise levels can beexpected during the next decade (Figure 23).39

Noise standards for cars, commercial road vehicles, and airplanes have been pro-gressively reduced over the last 20 years in the majority of OECD countries. For

road traffic, this has resulted in reductions in engine noise, but tyre noise in partic-ular and traffic noise generally have remained largely unchanged or have even in-creased. Motor vehicles are permitted to produce much higher levels of noise thanare consistent with health and comfort. For example, the European Commission1995/96 noise-emission limits are: passenger car, 74 dB(A); urban bus, 78 dB(A);heavy lorry, 80 dB(A).40

Accidents

Accident risks arise mainly from the daily operations of transport activity. Certainrisks such as those caused by the transport of hazardous waste by road or rail, orby the accidental discharge of oil products by tankers, raise concern because of

the potential scale and intensity of the damage. Although disastrous accidents canresult in heavy tolls, taken together these generally represent only a small fractionof the total deaths, injuries, andproperty damage attributable to transport. Consid-erable effort has been made to reduce the number and severity of transport acci-dents. The number of road accidents deaths fell by 25 per cent in Europe and 28per cent in the U..S. between 1980 and 1996, despite the steady increases in roadtraffic. In Japan, accident fatalities increased over the same period. The rate of im-provementhas slowed over recent years. Motorcyclists, pedestrians, and bicyclistsare the most vulnerable road users.41

26


Figure 23. Percentage of inhabitants exposed to noise categories for Amsterdam, Munich

and Madrid (1995 and 2010). Source: EAA (Ref. 8)

Motor vehicles are permitted

to produce much higher levels

of noise than are consistent

with health and comfort.

Disastrous accidents can

result in heavy tolls, but they

generally represent a small

fraction of the total deaths,

injuries, and property damage

from transport.


27/50

Transport is a major user

of non-renewable resources

About 20 per cent of worldwide energy use is for transport, 30 per cent in OECDcountries. Almost all transport is fuelled by oil, which accounts for about 60 percent of total energy use. Transport is the major user of oil, accounting for some 60per cent of the amount extracted. (The other 40 per cent is applied to numerous

uses, including the heating of buildings and the production of some 6,000 prod-ucts including asphalt, plastics, detergents, fertilisers, and medicines.)

Oil production and use have increased in almost every year this century, althoughthe recent rate of increase has been relatively low. Discoveries of conventionaloili.e., oil that can be readily pumped from the groundpeaked in 1962 andnow total less than 20 per cent of the amount extracted and used.42

The continued availability of conventional oil is thus in question. According to theInternational Energy Agency, there could be a peak in the production of conven-tional oil within 15 years and a subsequent inevitable decline, as illustrated in Fig-ure 24.43 Otherauthorities suggest that there will be fewer yearsbeforeproductionof conventional oil begins to fall.44Without special intervention, demand for con-

ventional oil will continue to increase, meaning that prices will increase, and pro-

duction of unconventional oili.e., oil produced in remote places, pumped fromseabeds or extracted from shale or oilsandswill becomemore economic.Use ofunconventional oil for transport will likely make transport less sustainable on alife-cycle basis, other things being equal, because more global, regional, and localpollution is associated with the production of unconventional oil.

Synthesis Report

27

Figure 24. IEAs projected oil demand until 2030 in relation to the projected supply of con-

ventional oilIEA/USGS supply profile. Source: IEA (Ref. 17)

About 20 per cent of worldwide

energy use is for transport, 30

per cent in OECD countries.

The continued availability of

conventional oil is in question.


28/50

Oil is the major non-renewable resource consumed for transport purposes. Not allof the oil consumed for transport purposes is used for vehicle fuel. Some providesthe energy for the production, maintenance, and disposal of vehicles and infra-structure. Some goes into the plastics that form an increasing portion of vehicles,included to improve vehicle fuel efficiency by reducing body weight. Othernon-renewable resources used for transport include the ores of numerous metals,and of several exotic elements used in vehicles electronic systems. Many of thecommon metals are recycled, notably iron, aluminium, and copper, but recycling

becomes increasingly difficult as more sophisticated alloys, laminates, and blendsare used in vehicle production. Production of vehicles and transport infrastructureaccounts for 20..40 per cent of consumption of major materials, including aggre-gates, cement, steel, and aluminium.45 However, it is generally recognised thatsubstituts will be developed to replace such non-renewable resources whenprices rise to reflect their scarcity.

Transports unaccounted costs

Transports unaccountedso-called external or socialcosts due to health andenvironmental effects from accidents, noise, air pollution, climate impacts, andothers have been estimated in a recent study to amount to some eight per cent of

the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of OECD European countries. Road transportand aviation are primarily responsible for these costs; rail traffic contributes lessthan one per cent of the social cost burden.46

Transports environmental impacts occur mainly during the operation of motor-ised transport, butarealso caused duringthe production andmaintenance of vehi-cles, the construction of infrastructure, the provision of energy and fuels, and thedisposal and decommissioning of vehicles and infrastructure. All impacts duringthe entire life cycle have to be taken into account. Life-cycle assessments andeco-balance studies show that rail transportincluding high-speed railcausesconsiderably less in the way of environmental impacts than road and air traffic.Nevertheless, there are several environmental issues related to rail transport.These include noise, land take, and polluting emissions from the construction ofinfrastructure and theproduction of energy. Life-cycle assessmentsadd 15..30 per

cent to estimates of costs based on operations alone, more for rail transport due toits very low operational emissions.47

28


Production of vehicles and

transport infrastructure

accounts for 20..40 per cent

of consumption of major

materials, including

aggregates, cement, steel,

and aluminium.

Road transport and aviation

are responsible for most of

transports external costs; rail

traffic contributes less thanone per cent of the burden.

Life-cycle assessments add

15..30 per cent to estimates

of costs based on operations

alone, more for rail transport.


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Long-term trends

Even if all present, planned, and reasonably foreseeable legislative, technological,and societal changes were to come about, serious doubts would remain as to theenvironmental sustainability of future transport systems. Projecting current busi-ness as usual trends, and assuming no major shortages of petroleum products fortransportuse, transport in 2030 acrossOECD countries will be characterised by thefollowing:

s Car ownership and total distance travelled will be at substantially higher levelsthan in 1990 (up to 200 per cent more) although vehicles will be morefuel-efficient and less polluting. Distance travelled per vehicle will remainabout the same as in 1990. Gasoline and dieselfuelwillcontinue to be the most

widely use sources of transport energy, with some increase in the use of lique-fied petroleum gas and other alternative fuels, and in the use of hybrid andelectric vehicles.

s Increases in road freight activity will be generally larger than those for car use,with correspondingly larger increases in the use of diesel fuel.

s Rail and water-borne freight activity will also grow, but at a much lower ratethan for road freight.

s Use of surface public transport will grow, albeit at a much lower rate than caruse.

s Walking and cycling will be at similar or slightly lower levels than in 1990.

s There will be much larger increases in aviation activity than for other modes,up to a 600-per-cent increase globally by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

s Projections of current trends suggest that motorised road vehicles and aircraftwill comprise the dominant transport modes in 2030.

Given these developments, the environmental impacts of transport in OECDcountriesand several othersin 2030 can be summarised as follows:

Total emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic com-

pounds, andfine particulateswill decrease from present levelsin OECD countries.Worldwide, there will be increases in these emissions from transport. Even inOECD countries there may be increases in emissions of some pollutants fromtransport during the later part of this period on account of growth in vehicle num-bers and traffic levels, with little prospect of further technological fixes. Gen-erally, there will be a decline in therelativecontribution of cars to transport-relatedair pollution, with increases in the contributions of road freight traffic and, espe-cially, aviation.

Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector will have doubledby 2030, contributing to dangerously high concentrations of atmospheric CO 2.Transport noise nuisances will decrease slightly overall, but some modes, notablyaviation, may generate significantly higher levels than at present. Land use fortransport infrastructure (roads and parking, rail corridors, airports, and harbours)

29

Synthesis Report

Features of transport in 2030 if

present trends continue.

Serious doubts remain as to

the sustainability of future

transport systems.

There will be a decline in the

relative contribution of cars toair pollution, with increases in

the contributions of

road-freight traffic and aviation.


30/50

will likely increase with growing transport activity, leading to higher levels of wa-ter pollution, habitat destruction, biodiversity loss,48 and community disruption.Extrapolations of current estimates of transports unaccounted costs suggest thattransport in 2030 is likely to continue to place significantly large economic and so-cial burdens on society.

Figure 25 provides an overview of expected trends in several of transports local,

regional, and global environmental impacts if current trends continue.The long-term environmental sustainability of OECD transport systems is, evi-dently, by no means assured. Likely advances in technology will not be sufficientto overcome increased environmental impacts resulting from growing transportdemand.

30


Effects OECD Non-OECD Sources

urban pollution:

noise

NO2, PM2.5

=

trucks, airplanes

trucks

regional pollution:

O3, acidification

water / sea

cars, trucks

ships

global pollution: CO2, CFCs

POP, waste

cars, trucksairplanes

cars, airplanes

Figure 25. Long-term assessment of environmental impacts in OECD and non-OECD Countries

Current transport systems are

not sustainable over the long

term, environmentally,

economically or socially.


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Policy development can be shaped in the light of present circumstances or futuregoals. In the former case, forecasts based on current trends provide the basis fordetermining what may be required to accommodate or counteract those trends. Inthe latter case, goals are set and there is a working backwards (backcasting) from

the goals to determine what must be done to reach them. The former kind ofpolicy development results in doing what is possible to avoid an unwanted future.The latter kind results in doing what is necessary to achieve a wanted future.

Policy development often involves both approaches, although usually with moreemphasis on present circumstances than on goals for the future. An emphasis onpresent circumstances is especially true of transport policy-making. Conventionalapproaches to transports environmental impacts have taken observed and pro-jected trends in transport activity as givens and have sought to assess and mitigatethe environmental impacts of these developments. This approach has led to im-portant efficiency gains and has helped to reduce certain environmental andhealth risks stemming from the transport sector. It has not ledand likely will notleadtowards attainment of long-term environmental objectives.

The conventional approaches are appealing because transport presents so manychallenges for policy-makers. As noted above, effective motorised transport hasbecome a central feature of life in OECD countries, associated for the most part

with progress, efficiency, and great convenience. Attempts to change what ap-pears so desirable are accordingly met with strong resistance. Conventional ap-proaches offer the promise of mitigation of growing costs while providing little re-straint on growth in transport activity, thereby softening some of the resistance to

31

Synthesis Report

A NEW POLICY APPROACH IS REQUIRED

Figure 26. Comparison of the EST approach and the conventional approach to transport

policy-making Source: OECD (Ref. 29, Ref. 33)

Conventional policy

development speaks to

avoiding an unwanted future;

backcasting seeks to achieve a

wanted future.

Conventional approaches offer

the promise of mitigating

growing costs while providing

little restraint on growth in

transport activity.


32/50

action. The problem with such approaches is that the resulting mitigation is usu-ally insufficient to offset the increased growth in the volume of transport activity.

It is time for a new approach to transport policy-making, which can be called theenvironmentally sustainable transport (EST) approach. It involves three importantsteps. The first is to set out scenes or scenarios of what transport will be like whenit is environmentally sustainable. The second is to characterise EST in terms ofquantifiable targets for transport activity and the environmental impacts of eachunit of activity. The third is to engage in backcasting exercise that involves work-

ing back from these targets to present conditions to determine what actions are re-quired to ensure that the targets are met.

There are three key differences between the EST approach and conventional ap-proaches. The first is that the goals of the EST approach are consistent with a num-ber of the specific requirements of sustainable development. Other approachesmay do little more than acknowledge the desirability of moving towards sustain-able development. The second difference is that the EST approach attempts to ad-dress the totality of transports environmental impacts. Other approaches tend tofocus only on reducing theimpacts per unit of transportactivity,giving insufficientattention to impacts resulting from growth in activity. The third difference followsfrom the second. It is that the selection of measures or instruments required to se-cure attainment of ESTof necessityincludesconsideration of the need to moderate

growth in the most environmentally damaging forms of transport activity. Otherapproaches often seem based on the assumption that sufficient mitigation of im-pacts can be secured by a focus on such measures as emissions control, use ofbetter fuels, and improvements in engine efficiency. Some of the differences be-tween the two approaches are summarised in Figure 26.

The EST approach, based on backcasting from a desirable future, may be capableof generating the fresh policy directions needed if transport is to become environ-mentally sustainable. Moreover, because such methods highlight discrepanciesbetween current trends and desirable futures, they may be capable of generatingthe motivation needed to implement fresh policy directions, and to overcome thepolicy gap illustrated in Figure 27. The EST scenarios of a backcasting exerciseare not limited by the constraints of current policies. They can therefore broadenthe scope for finding solutions.

32


Figure 27. Bridging the policy gap

Three key differences between

the EST approach and

conventional approaches.

It is time for a new approach

to transport policy-making

based on backcasting.

The EST approach may

generate the fresh policy

directions needed for

transport to become

sustainable.


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THE OECDS EST PROJECTPurposes and overview of the EST project

A new policy approach is needed that places environmental considerations in theforefront with other policy goals. Recognising this need, the OECD EnvironmentalPolicy Committees Working Group on Transport initiated the project on Environ-mentally Sustainable Transport (EST) in 1994 with two broad purposes in mind.The first was to give some precision to the concept of EST through the use of crite-ria that have environmental significance and can be quantified. The second was todevelop guidelines for the attainment of EST that could be of use to governmentsin OECD countries and others.

Teams from nine countries undertook six case studies to determine how ESTmight be achieved. They concerned respectively the whole countries of Sweden,The Netherlands, and Germany, as well as the Quebec-Windsor corridor in Can-ada, the greater Oslo region, and the Alpine region comprising parts of Austria,France, Italy,and Switzerland.Related studies have been undertaken by Japan andjointly by UNEP, the OECD and Austria, under the Central European Initiative(CEI) for fourteen Central and Eastern European economies in transition. Thestudy areas are shown in the map in Figure 28.

The EST project comprised several phases

Phase 1, completed during 1996, involved a review of relevant activities of Mem-ber countries, and establishment of a definition of and criteria for EST.49

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Synthesis Report

Figure 28. Map of study areas

Teams from nine countries

undertook six case studies to

determine how EST might be

achieved.

The four phases of the EST

project.


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Phase 2, completed during 1998, involved the development by the teams of abusiness-as-usual (BAU) scenario andthree scenariosconsistent with the ESTcri-teria, all for2030.For EST1, transport activity wasset at theBAU level andthe crite-ria were met through improvements in technology. For EST2, technology was setat the BAU level and the criteria were met through reductions in transport activity.For EST3, the criteria were achieved through each Member country teams pre-ferredcombinationof improvements in technology andreductions in transportac-

tivity.50 How the three EST scenarios related to the BAU scenario is illustrated inFigure 29.

Phase 3, completed in early 2000, had two main elements: (1) to work out how theEST3 scenario might be reached, i..e., which instruments could be deployed bygovernments to reach EST3; and(2)to examine in a preliminary waythe social andeconomic implicationsof the BAU andEST3 scenariosandof deployingthe instru-ments used in their attainment.51

Phase 4, completed in 2000, involved development of draft guidelines that couldbe used by governments in OECD countries and others for moving their transportsystems towards EST. It also involved reconsideration of the criteria for EST andthe characterisations of EST that flow from the criteria.

A project taking the same approach has been completed for Central and EasternEuropean countries through a joint Austrian, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, and OECD effort.52 It examined current and projected transporttrends and the challenges involved in moving towards EST within an economicsetting that differed from those of OECD countries. Several promising options andstrategies for the attainment of EST in these countries were identified.

Characterising

Environmentally Sustainable Transport

The term sustainable developmentwas introduced in 1980, popularised in the1987 report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (theBrundtland Commission), and given the status of a global mission by the UnitedNations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) that met in Riode Janeiro in 1992.53 The global mission involvesachievingsustainability in all sec-tors of human activity, including transport.

The Brundtland Commission defined sustainable developmentas developmentthat meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs.54 The definition implies that the movementof people and goods should occur in ways that are environmentally, socially, andeconomically sustainable. The present work has focused on the need for ensuringthat transport is environmentally sustainable.The requirements for social andeco-nomic sustainability have not been neglected, but their full exposition requiresfurther work.

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EST1 EST2 EST3Technology Development >>BAU =BAU >BAU

Transport Activity =BAU


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Environmentally sustainable transport (EST) is above all transport that functionswithin the limits set by nature. At an early stage, participants in the EST project de-fined an environmentally sustainable transport system as one where:

transport does not endanger public health or ecosystems and meets needs for ac-cess consistent with (a) use of renewable resources below their rates of regenera-

tion, and (b) use of non-renewable resources below the rates of development of re-

newable substitutes.55

More specifically, a sustainable transport system is one that throughout its fulllife-cycle operation:

s allows generallyacceptedobjectives for health and environmentalquality to bemet, for example, those concerning air pollutants and noise proposed by the

World Health Organization (WHO);

s is consistent with ecosystem integrity, for example, it does not contribute toexceedances of critical loads and levels as defined by WHO for acidification,

eutrophication and ground-level ozone; ands does not result in worsening of adverse global phenomena such as climate

change and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Internationally agreed goals, guidelines, and standards were used to opera-tionalise this definition and to set EST criteria and thus reduction targets. They in-cluded those proposed by WHO and adopted in the Convention on Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe,UN ECE) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Examples of the considerations involved in the setting of EST criteria are providedin Figure 30 (ozone) and Figure 31 (acidification and eutrophication).56 In bothfigures it can be seen that although reductions in pollution are expected they willbe insufficient to bring levels below the respective critical loads.

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Synthesis Report

Figure 30. Exceedences of critical loads for sensitive ecosystems: assessment of

ground-level ozone for ecosystems and human health, Europe, 1995 and 2010

Source: EEA (Ref. 8), IIASA (Ref. 9)

Definition of environmentally

sustainable transport (EST).

Internationally agreed goals,

guidelines, and standards were

used to operationalise the

definition and to set EST

criteria and reduction targets.


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Six criteria were identified during the first phase of the EST project as being theminimum numberrequiredto address thewide range of healthandenvironmental

impacts from transport. The criteria were selected so that local, regional, andglobal concerns would be addressed, specifically noise, air quality, acidificationand eutrophication, ground-level ozone, climate change, and land use.

The EST criteria (targets) were expressed relative to respective 1990 values. Gooddata were availablefor 1990 forall the study areas.Criteriawere expressedrelativeto 1990 values to allow their ready application across jurisdictions. Common crite-ria were set with respect to four of the six areas selected; individual project teamsdeveloped their own criteria for noise and land use. The development of the crite-ria is illustrated in Figure 32, and the specific criteria are set out in Figure 33.

The year 2030 was chosen as the target date for attainment of EST. The date was acompromise between avoidanceof as much as possible of thecumulative adverse

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Figure 31. Exceedences of critical loads for sensitive ecosystems: assessment of degrees

of acidification and eutrophication, Europe, 1995 and 2010

Source: EEA (Ref. 8), IIASA (Ref. 9)

Six criteria were identified as

being the minimum number

required to address the

impacts from transport.

Enviromental & Health Goals Action Targets

Noise

WHO Guidelines attained

Noise sources

.50% .70%

Air quality

WHO Guidelines attained (NO2, PM)

Air emissions:

.50% NOx > .99% PM

Critical levels for ozone attained -80% NOx & VOC

Acidification / Eutrophication

Critical Loads attained

SOx / NOx-Emissions

.75% 80% (-50% NH3)

Climate protection

Stabilisation of CO2 concentrations

GHG / CO2 Emissions

OECD .80%, Global 50%

Figure 32. Quantification of EST criteria (1)


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effects of transport (which spoke to an earlier date) and allowing enough time foreffective action (which spoke to a later date). Because of the distance of the targetdate from the present, the establishment of intermediate targets (milestones) wasconsidered essential.

There wassome arbitrariness in the selectionof the base year, in the useof relativecriteria, and in the target date. These matters were determined in order to proceed

with the project. Review during the course of the project left them essentially un-changed.

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Synthesis Report

CO2Climate change is prevented by reducing carbon dioxide

emissions so that atmospheric concentrations of CO2

are stabilised at or below their 1990 levels.Accordingly,

total emissionsof CO2 fromtransport shouldnot exceed

20% of such emissions in 1990.a

NOxDamage from ambient NO2 and ozone levels and nitro-

gen deposition is greatly reduced by meeting WHO Air

Quality Guidelines for human health and eco-toxicity.

This implies that total emissions of NOx from transport

should not exceed 10% of such emissions in 1990.b

VOCs

Damage from carcinogenic VOCs and ozone is greatly

reduced by meeting WHO Air Quality Guidelines for hu-

man health and ecosystem protection. Total emissions

of transport-related VOCs should not exceed 10% of

such emissions in 1990 (less for extremely toxic

VOCs).b

Particulates

Harmful ambient air levels are avoided by reducing

emissionsof fineparticulates (especially those less than

10 microns in diameter). Depending on local and re-

gional conditions, this may entail a reduction of 55% to

99% of fine particulate (PM10) emissions from trans-

port, compared with 1990 levels.c

Noise

Noise from transport no longer results in outdoor noise

levels that present a healthconcern or serious nuisance.

Depending on local and regional conditions, this may

entail a reduction of transport noise to no more than a

maximum of 55 dB(A) during the day and 45 dB(A) at

night and outdoors.d

Land-use/Land-take

Land-use and in particular infrastructure for the move-

ment, maintenance, and storage of transport vehicles is

developed in such a way that local and regional objec-

tives for air, water and eco-system protection are met.

Compared to 1990levels,transportactivitywilllikelyen-

tail a smaller proportion of landdevoted to transport in-

frastructure.

a The Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996) maintains that, in or-der to stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentrations at near current levels, world-wide CO2 emissions would need tobe reduced by50% to 70%withfurther reductions thereafter (IPCC,1996,pagexi). Inorderto allowfor increasesinemissions in developing countries, OECD countries should reduce their emissions by 80% or more so that a globalreduction of 50% may be attained (OECD, Ref. 29).

b These criteria are set in line with the WHO guidelines for human health regarding NOx, VOCs and Ozone(WHO, Ref. 46) and the UNECE protocols under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution forecosystemprotectionregarding critical loadsfor nitrogendeposition andcritical levelsof ozone (UNECE, Ref. 47)

c WHO has not set a threshold level for fine particulate matter (smaller than PM10) and ultrafine particles (smallerthan PM2.5) belowwhichhealtheffects donot occur.Thisimpliesthat there isno safe level of fine andultrafinepar-ticulate matterthatdo notposea carcinogenicrisk. Thetargetsset here arepreliminarydue to theongoingresearchon the health effects from ultrafine particulate matter (WHO, Ref. 46).

d This criterion is based on the former WHO recommendation on noise that has been recently updated in theWHO Guidelines for Community Noise (WHO, Ref. 45).

Figure 33. Quantification of EST criteria (2)

The year 2030 was chosen as a

compromise between

avoidance of too many adverse

effects and allowing time for

action.


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Visions of transport in 2030

The first task of the project teams was to develop business-as-usual scenarios forthe respective study areas. The emissions aspects of these scenarios are shown inFigure 34.57 The Figure shows that in each study area local and regional emissions(nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particles) are expected todecline, but not enough to meet the respective criteria. Emissions of carbon diox-

ide are expected to increase, i..e., their trend is in the opposite direction from theCO2 criterion.

Environmentally sustainable transport in 2030 will, by definition, meet the six ESTcriteria. In developing a vision of such a system, two alternate scenarios were ex-plored: the first focused on reaching the EST criteria solely through technologicalmeans; the second relied on restraining transport activity. Working EST scenar-iosknown in the project as the EST3 scenarioswere constructed by the projectteams by combining some of the most promising, available, and tested features ofthe technology-only scenarios with the more politically acceptable features of thedemand-side management-only scenario. Transport activity in the EST3 scenariosis shown in Figure 35 (passenger transport) and in Figure 36 (freight transport).

In general, the following features characterised the EST3 scenarios for 2030 (al-though not all features appeared in each teams scenario):

s There would be a significant decrease in carownershipand usewith many carsrunning on hybrid-electric or all-electric engines, the latter often powered byfuel cells.

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Figure 34. Business-as-usual projections (BAU) of transport emissions in the six EST projec

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