OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION · should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking...
Transcript of OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION · should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking...
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OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Vicki A. HollubPresident & Chief Operating Officer
Credit Suisse Energy SummitFebruary 23, 2016
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Cautionary StatementPortions of this presentation contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that couldmaterially affect expected results of operations, liquidity, cash flows and business prospects. Words such as"estimate," "project," "predict," "will," "would," "should," "could," "may," "might," "anticipate," "plan," "intend,""believe," "expect," "aim," "goal," "target," "objective," "likely" or similar expressions that convey theprospective nature of events or outcomes generally indicate forward-looking statements. Factors that maycause Occidental's results of operations and financial position to differ from expectations include but are notlimited to: global commodity pricing fluctuations; supply and demand considerations for Occidental’sproducts; higher-than-expected costs; the regulatory approval environment; reorganization or restructuring ofOccidental's operations; not successfully completing, or any material delay of, field developments, expansionprojects, capital expenditures, efficiency projects, acquisitions or dispositions; lower-than-expectedproduction from development projects or acquisitions; exploration risks; general economic slowdownsdomestically or internationally; political conditions and events; liability under environmental regulationsincluding remedial actions; litigation; disruption or interruption of production or manufacturing or facilitydamage due to accidents, chemical releases, labor unrest, weather, natural disasters, cyber attacks orinsurgent activity; failure of risk management; changes in law or regulations; or changes in tax rates. Youshould not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of thispresentation. Unless legally required, Occidental does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Material risks that may affectOccidental’s results of operations and financial position appear in Part 1, Item 1A “Risk Factors” ofOccidental's 2015 Form 10-K.
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Large Integrated MajorsCompany Market Cap ($B)XOM $328CVX $156RDS $142TOT $100BP $94ENI $51
Characteristics• Low or no growth• Higher returns• Stronger B/S; lower risk• Free cash flow• Consistent dividend growth
Why own Oxy?
Independent E&PsCompany Market Cap ($B)COP $41EOG $37APC $21PXD $20APA $15MRO $6
Characteristics• Generally higher growth• Lower returns• Weaker B/S; higher risk• Little or no free cash flow• Little or no dividends• Moving from gassy to oily
Oxy has positive elements of both groups, appealing to investors who seek a combination of moderate growth, above average returns and consistent dividend growth.
Oxy Uniquely
Positioned
$50 billion
3Updated as of 2/5/2016
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Balance sheet• Ended 2015 with $4.4 Billion
cash
• Debt of $8.3 Billion (25% debt to capitalization ratio)
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Portfolio of Assets• Long life cash flow assets
• Significant growth potential
• Flexibility to ramp activity up or down depending on market conditions
People• Maintain and continue to
develop staff
• Increase use of advanced technology and data analytics
Strategy• Invest in projects that
generate long term value with returns above cost of capital
• Leverage fast growth Resources with low decline EOR
Why own Oxy?
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Overriding Goal is to Maximize Total Shareholder Return• We believe this can be achieved through a combination of:
• Oil and gas production growth of 5% to 8% per year over the long-term;− Executing on our capital program with a focus on growing our U.S. oil production
• Allocating and deploying capital with a focus on achieving well above cost-of-capital returns (ROE and ROCE);
– Return Targets*• Domestic – 15+%• International – 20+%
− Continued improvement in our capital and drilling efficiency− Start-up of long-term projects
• Providing consistent, annual dividend growth;
• Maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Key Messages & Strategy
5*Assumes moderate product prices
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Cash Flow Priorities
1. Base/Maintenance Capital
2. Dividends
3. Growth Capital
4. Share Repurchase
5. Acquisitions
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Closed the sale of Williston Basin properties
Progressed our efforts to exit from non-core operations in Middle East
Reached understanding on terms of payment with the Republic of Ecuador for ~$1 billion.
Continued progress on construction of the OxyChem Ethylene cracker on schedule and on budget for start-up in early 2017
Exited 2015 with ~$4.4 billion of cash
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Williston Sale
16 MBOED – FY15
$0.6 bn pre-tax proceeds
Libya
Bahrain
Iraq
Yemen
MENA Exits Ongoing
Core Assets
60 MBOED – 4Q15
Execution Of Our Strategic Initiatives
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Oil and Gas Focus Areas
Latin America
• Leading position in the Permian Basin
• Permian Resources is a growth driver
• Al Hosn Project, Oman and Qatar
• Additional opportunities for growth with partner countries
• Highest margin operations in Colombia.
• Additional opportunities for moderate growth with partner.
Oxy will be positioned to grow
• Oil production• Earnings & Cash Flow
per share• ROCE• Dividend stream
OxyChemHigh FCF, moderate growth business.
Oxy MidstreamIntegrated pipeline and marketing business to maximize realizations.
Oxy Runs A Focused Business
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MENA
United States
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• Largest oil producer and operator in Permian Basin.
• Significant investments in infrastructure to support the upstream provide low operating costs, advantaged realized prices and competitive advantages.
• ~60% of Oxy’s Permian oil production is from CO2 related EOR projects – Oxy’s most profitable business.
• The EOR business (mainly CO2) will continue to generate significant FCF.
• Permian Resources is the cornerstone growth asset of the domestic business.
• Substantial acreage position with significant resource development potential.
• We have shifted toward horizontal drilling and expect the Resources business to grow rapidly.
Permian Basin Is The Core Domestic Asset
Oxy Acreage
Oil Pipelines
CO2 Pipelines
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Tota
l Ope
rate
d Pr
oduc
tion,
Tho
usan
d B
OEP
D Cumulative % of total 2.3 million
BOEPD
Oxy is the Largest Permian Basin Producer
10Source: IHS Energy Feb and Mar 2014, 6 MCF/BOE excluding estimated CO2 production.
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Given the current oil price environment, we will focus on investment to achieve four core goals:
Accelerate geoscience, characterization and modeling programs to enhance recovery, productivity and field economic returns
Minimize base decline and set up major growth programs in both Resources and EOR segments
Focus resources on game changing technologies and applications
Accelerate continued improvements in execution and cost
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2016 Permian Strategy
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• Total of ~8,500 locations in horizontal inventory
• ~3,400 total locations economic at less than $60 / barrel which is an increase of approximately 700 locations from previous version
• ~350 locations economic below $40 / barrel
Continuing to lower economic hurdle points through reservoir characterization and optimization, improved productivity, reduced well costs, and faster time to market
Drilling Inventory Based on Q4 Costs
Better Well Productivity and
Lower Cost
4%
14%
40%
48%
60%
100%
Permian Resources – Drilling Inventory
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• Total production grew 40% year-over-year to 118 MBOED.
– Oil production grew 49% year-over-year to 76 MBOD.
– Oil production is expected to continue to grow at rates higher than total production.
• Reached goal of 120 MBOED in November, one year and one month ahead of original goal 43
71 62 71 74 76
2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1H16EProduction (MBOED)
Oil NGL Gas
75
98109
116 118 ~123110
Permian Resources Production Growth
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$13.20 $13.03
$11.39 $10.87
$9.73
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Permian Resources Operating Costs / BOE
Surface Downhole Supports Energy Other
• Focus on reducing field
operating costs during 2015
• Downhole expense ($/boe)
reduced 34% from 4Q14
• Company operated operating
expense down ~30% ($/boe)
from 4Q14
14
Permian Resources Cost Reduction
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43
37
20 19 17
14
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Best
DRILL DAYSDelaware Wolfcamp A 4,500’ HZ
$5.3
$2.9 $2.6
$5.6
$3.2 $2.8
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2014 Current Best
GR
OSS
WEL
L C
OST
$M
M
WELL COSTDelaware Wolfcamp A 4,500’ HZ
Drilling Completions
Move to Manufacturing Mode Significantly Reduced Well Cost
$10.9
$6.2$5.5
Rig Release to Rig Release
15
Permian Resources –Manufacturing Mode
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46
31
20 18 17
13
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Best
DRILL DAYSEast Midland Wolfcamp A 7,500’ Hz
$3.7 $2.3 $1.9
$5.5
$3.7 $3.4
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2014 Current Best
GR
OSS
WEL
L C
OST
$M
M
WELL COSTEast Midland Wolfcamp A 7,500' Hz
Drilling Completions
Move to Manufacturing Mode Significantly Reduced Well Cost
$9.2
$6.0$5.3
Rig Release to Rig Release
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Permian Resources – Manufacturing Mode
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• Stable and low-decline base production at an advantaged cost
• Permian EOR business remains profitable in the current downturn
• EOR business is expected to generate free cash flow this year in the current oil price environment
• Infrastructure would be hard to duplicate
CO2 Supply & Processing
Permian EOR
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World Leader in CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Number of Projects
ChevronApache
Kinder Morgan
Exxon
Occidental
Size of bubble = CO2 EOR Production VolumeU.S. CO2 EOR Projects
Num
ber o
f Inj
ectio
n W
ells
DenburyAnadarko
Hess
Oil & Gas Journal 2012 Biennial EOR Survey
• Inject 1.9 billion cubic feet a day• Operate 31 CO2 EOR projects
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Permian EOR can operate at cash costs as low as $22 per BOE
Sensitive to O&G Prices Partially Discretionary
$14.1
$4.7
$4.7
$4.0
$2.7
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Well, SurfMaint
Injectant Energy Taxes SG&A
$ / B
OE
2015 Permian EOR Cost Structure$55 WTI, $3.00 NYMEX
$10.8
$4.0
$2.2
$3.2$1.8
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Well, SurfMaint
Injectant Energy Taxes SG&A
$ / B
OE
2015 Permian EOR Cost Structure$35 WTI, $2.00 NYMEX
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Permian EOR Cost Structure
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• Cash Operating Expense reduced by $4.36 / BOE in 4Q14 to 4Q15
• Savings were driven by productivity gains and supplier cost reductions
• Well maintenance job productivity improved 32% in 4Q15 versus 4Q14
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
$/B
OE
Cash Operating Expense ($/BOE)
Supports & Other EnergyInjectant Surface Ops and MaintenanceWorkover / Well Enhancement Downhole Maintenance
$20.82 $20.03
$18.16 $18.36$16.46
Permian EOR Cash Costs
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Denver EOR Unit: Battery 5 Development
Battery 5 Redevelopment Project:• Develops both Main Oil Column & Residual Oil Zone
• Requires deepening 150 wells
• Develops 21 MMBOE net at a $4.80 per BOE
Primary
Waterflood
CO2
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Hobbs: CO2 Flood and Expansion AreasNorth Hobbs:• Phase 1 added 35 MMBOE (Injection started
in 2003)• Phase 2A Project will develop 13.7 MMBOE
at $13.82 per BOE (Injection Starts in 6/2016)• ~93% oil production
North Hobbs Oil Production
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South Hobbs:• Started CO2 injection into Phase 1 in
September (ahead of schedule)• Phase 1 & 2 will develop 28 MMBOE at
$10.60 per BOE• 100% oil production
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Permian EOR
ROZ Projects development cost ranges from $3 - $7 per BOE
“Stranded Oil in the Residual Oil Zone by L. Stephen Melzer, Advanced Resources International and the U.S.
Department of Energy, February 2006.23
South HobbsResidual Oil Zone (“ROZ”) Potential:
• Four pattern to begin in 2016.• Full ROZ expansion:
– ~50 patterns; 80 MMBOE
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Unrisked, Gross Reserves and Resources
• 2015 EOR CAPEX = $500MM− Complete and begin CO2 injection at
South Hobbs
− Start Expansion on North Hobbs CO2
• Expected to generate free cash flow in current oil price environment.
• EOR and Resources deliver advantaged scale, infrastructure and expertise synergies across Permian.
Unrisked, gross resource potential of up to 1.9 billion barrels
Permian EOR is a Large, Highly Economic Resource
Developed2.0 bn
Undeveloped0.3 bn
Undeveloped CO21.9 bn
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• 2016 activity focused on core locations with minimal infrastructure investments
• Analyze appraisal data to support future development and initiate seed projects for long term growth in EOR
• Reduce rig count in Permian to 2-4 rigs
• Technical staff and engineers will focus on long-term projects, enhancing base production, and preparing full field development plans for to ramp up activity when oil prices recover.
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147 145 145 145 144 144 143
75110 98 109 116 118 ~123
2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1H16EProduction (MBOED)
EOR Resources
222243
254 260 261255~266
Permian Summary
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Maintenance Sustaining Growth
2015 2016E
$5.6
$2.8 - $3.0
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2016 Capital Budget($ in bln)
• Carefully reduce activity levels without harming the strong progress on growth prospects
• Fund only those opportunities that exceed hurdle rates of return
• 2016 plan approximates expected cash from operations at around current prices
• Majority of the program will be allocated to the Permian Basin and to completing long-term projects in Chemicals and Midstream
• In Permian Resources, drilling activity focused in the Midland and Delaware near existing infrastructure, to achieve higher returns
• In Permian EOR, a modest increase for building out facilities and systems to handle and inject greater quantities of CO2, with 1-2 year production response time
2016 Capital Outlook
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• Multiple long-term investments to drive cash flow and earnings growth
– Al Hosn
– Ethylene cracker JV
– Ingleside terminal
– Gas processing
• Capital spending will continue to decline and cash flows and earnings expected to grow as projects start-up.
• Increased flexibility on capital budget in 2016 and 2017
Committed Project Capital($ in millions)
27
$1,300
$800
$500
$100
2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Committed Project Capital Declining
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2016 Capital Budget$2.8 - $3.0 billion
Chemicals18% Permian Resources
21%
Permian EOR17%
International24%
Exploration & Other4%
Midstream16%
2016 Capital Breakdown – Oil & Gas
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29* Ongoing operations; excludes Williston & Hugoton production volumes
362
416
2014 2015
Total Oil Production*(MBOD)
Total Company Production*(MBOED)
571
652
2014 2015
Oxy Production Growth
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~560570 – 585
Core Assets2015
Other DomesticDeclined
PermianResources
Growth
Al HosnFull Capacity
Block 62 OmanStart-up
2016 CoreProduction
Outlook
• Expect total production from core assets to grow 2% - 4% over 2015 levels– Core assets exclude Bahrain, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Williston and Piceance Basins
– Full year contribution from Al Hosn and start-up of Block 62 in Oman should add ~35,000 BOED of production
– Modest increase in Permian Resources and flat Permian EOR
2 – 4% Core AssetsProduction
Growth in 2016
Company-wide Oil & Gas Production from Core Assets (MBOED)
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2016 Production Outlook
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• Expect continued improvement in cost structure
– Strategic Initiatives
– Lower workovers
– Lower downhole maintenance
– Lower energy costs
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$13.50
$11.57
2014 2015
Production Costs($/boe)
Overhead (SG&A)($ millions)
$1,503
$1,270
2014 2015
Improved Cost Structure
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• S&P Rating affirmed at single A with stable outlook
• Financial flexibility to invest through the cycle and return cash to shareholders
• Annualized cash flow changes ~$100 million for a ~$1.00 / barrel change in realized oil prices
• Annualized cash flow changes ~$40 million for a ~$0.50 / Mmbtu change in realized natural gas prices
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2016 Illustrative Sources & Uses of Cash
Sources Uses
Beginning Cash Balance
Ecuador Payments & Asset Sales
4Q15 Annualized Cash Flow
@ $42 / barrel Debt Reduction
Capital Program
Dividends
~$1.2 bn
~$3.6 bn
~$4.4 bn
~$0.7 bn
~$2.3 bn
<$3.0 bn
2016E Sources & Uses of Cash
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Cash Flow Priorities
1. Base/Maintenance Capital
2. Dividends
3. Growth Capital
4. Share Repurchase
5. Acquisitions
33
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History Of Returning Cash To Shareholders
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Period ending 2015 Cash DividendsShare
Repurchases Combined
3 – years $6.0 $4.3 $10.4
5 – years $9.6 $4.4 $14.6
10 – years $14.0 $9.2 $23.3
($ in Billions)
– Additionally, over the 10 years ending 2014:• We reinvested $45 billion of capital in the business;• We made cash acquisitions of $22 billion;• Our long-term debt increased by only $3.9 billion.
– We spun off California Resources Corp. to Oxy shareholders in 2014 valued at ~$2.3 billion.
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• A key to long term success is to take advantage of this downturn to improve our future:– Major cost structure changes– Further advances in improved recovery– Investment in people– Portfolio expansion
• Diverse portfolio– Two businesses in one of the best basins in the world– Long life, low decline, value adding, cash flow generating assets– Flexibility to ramp up or down depending on market conditions
• Conservative balance sheet
• Continuing Dividend Growth
• Strategy to maneuver through this environment
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Summary – Key to Success / Strengths
Data Analytics
Technology (new or different)
Technical excellence of our people
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