O. Nývlt, I. Nováková, L. Savko - Effective distribution of sample over time as well as over...
-
Upload
istituto-nazionale-di-statistica -
Category
Education
-
view
23.030 -
download
2
description
Transcript of O. Nývlt, I. Nováková, L. Savko - Effective distribution of sample over time as well as over...
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 1/16
Ondřej Nývlt, Ilona Nováková, Lukáš Savko
EFFECTIVE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE OVER TIME AS WELL AS OVER SPACE WITH RELATION TO MONTHLY PROCESSING IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 2/16
Sampling frame - the register of inhabited dwellings (Census Area
Register), no relation to register of persons in case of the Czech
Republic – law restriction
Sampling method – two stages: 1st stage – randomized systematic sample of Census Areas in
NUTS4 (probability of inclusion proportional to number of permanently inhabited dwellings in C.A.)
2nd stage – random sample of selected dwellings
Fixed distribution according to size of municipalities in NUTS4
SAMPLING FRAME PROCEDURE
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 3/16
■ In particular quarters the scheme of Census areas according to the NUTS4 and
reference weeks
■ The size of municipality or degree of urbanisation are not a part of rotation
scheme
■ The rotation scheme is not strictly given, is adapted according to demand of field
workers (fieldwork strategy)
Rules and checks for rotation scheme
■ to check the minimum and maximum of surveyed census areas according to
reference weeks and NUTS4 or NUTS3 or to compute dispersion
■ in repeated visits in the households the possibility to switch the reference
weeks +1
■ Evaluation – feedback, reports
ROTATION SCHEME
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 4/16
ROTATION SCHEME – ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS
550
650
400
400
300
400
300
300
300
300
550
300
300
600
5650
13
43
50
31
30
24
30
23
23
23
23
43
23
23
46
435
12
43
50
31
30
23
31
23
23
23
23
43
23
23
46
435
11
43
50
31
31
23
30
23
23
23
23
42
23
23
46
434
10
42
50
31
31
23
31
23
23
23
23
42
23
24
46
435
9
42
50
31
31
23
31
23
23
23
23
42
23
23
46
434
8
42
50
30
31
23
31
23
23
24
23
42
23
23
47
435
7
42
50
30
31
23
31
23
24
23
23
42
23
23
47
435
6
42
50
31
31
23
31
23
23
23
23
42
23
23
46
434
5
42
50
31
31
23
31
23
23
23
24
42
23
23
46
435
4
42
50
30
31
23
31
24
23
23
23
42
23
23
46
434
3
42
50
31
30
23
31
23
23
23
23
43
24
23
46
435
2
42
50
31
31
23
31
23
23
23
23
43
23
23
46
435
1
43
50
31
31
23
30
23
23
23
23
42
23
23
46
434
hl.m.Praha
Středočeský
Jihočeský
Plzeňský
Karlovarský
Ústecký
Liberecký
Královéhradecký
Pardubický
Vysočina
Jihomoravský
Olomoucký
Zlínský
Moravskoslezský
ČR celkem
NUTS 3 TotalReference weeks (1st quarter)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 5/16
ROTATION SCHEME – REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREASEXAMPLE
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13.
5101 51 70 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 0,24 15102 51 65 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 0,15 25103 51 111 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 0,25 15104 51 54 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 0,13 1
51 300 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 22 0,22 25201 52 89 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 0,28 25202 52 45 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 3 0,40 25203 52 64 5 6 4 5 6 5 6 4 6 4 4 4 5 0,69 25204 52 45 4 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 0,40 25205 52 57 4 4 5 4 3 4 6 4 3 6 4 5 5 0,85 3
52 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 15301 53 61 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 0,52 25302 53 98 7 7 9 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 0,56 25303 53 69 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 0,21 15304 53 72 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 0,25 1
53 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1.
Total 5650 434 435 435 435 433 434 436 437 433 435 435 435 433 1,31 4
Dispersion Max-min
Allocation of census areas accoding to NUTS4 - 2013q4
Reference weeksNUTS4 NUTS3 Total CA
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 6/16
■ Reference months in quarterly distribution (4-5-4)
■ How to ensure regular distribution of census areas according to size of municipality or degree of urbanization to particular months?
■ Problems with remote municipalities in the wintertime
■ In the Czech Republic only recommendation in case for size of municipality for fieldwork – is it sufficient?
MONTHLY ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 7/16
ROTATION SCHEME
REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS ACCORDING TO DEGREE OF URBANIZATION – 2013Q1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
.52 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1
Densely 54 5 6 4 5 4 2 4 6 3 1 5 3 6 2,28 5Intermediate 120 8 9 11 13 6 9 6 12 9 11 8 7 11 4,64 7
Thinly 126 10 8 8 5 13 12 13 6 11 11 10 13 6 7,44 8
53 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1Densely 30 3 1 2 0 4 2 1 0 1 4 4 4 4 2,37 4
Intermediate 114 9 9 7 8 6 7 11 10 9 7 11 10 10 2,49 5Thinly 156 11 13 14 15 13 15 11 13 13 12 8 9 9 4,77 7
.
NUTS3Degree of
urbanizationNumber
of CA
Reference weekDispersion Max-min
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 8/16
ROTATION SCHEME
REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS ACCORDING TO SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY (IN PERSONS)– 2013Q1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
.52 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1
0-999 72 6 4 5 3 8 7 6 5 7 7 5 5 4 1,94 51000-9999 90 5 6 6 5 8 7 9 3 6 12 7 12 4 6,99 910000-49999 84 7 7 8 10 3 7 4 10 7 3 6 3 9 5,94 7
50000+ 54 5 6 4 5 4 2 4 6 3 1 5 3 6 2,28 5
53 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 10-999 90 10 11 9 6 5 10 6 6 7 7 4 4 5 5,15 7
1000-9999 94 2 4 7 12 10 7 11 10 9 5 6 6 5 8,18 1010000-49999 86 8 7 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 9 9 9 2,85 5
50000+ 30 3 1 2 0 4 2 1 0 1 4 4 4 4 2,37 4.
NUTS3Size of
municipalityNumber
of CA
Reference weekDispersion Max-min
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 9/16
■ Great differences in unemployment rates
■ City environment brings the working opportunities
ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO DEGREE OF URBANIZATION
The unemployment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 10/16
■ Relatively low unemployment in the small municipalities (below 1 thousand residents)
ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY
The unemployment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 11/16
■ In the last two years the growth of unemployment rate in cities
ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO REGIONAL STRUCTURE
The employment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) according to degree of urbanization in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 12/16
Quarterly sample – approximately 80 % overlapping from quarter
to quarter and 20 % overlapping from year to year
Monthly sample – mostly zero overlapping from month to month,
higher stability in comparison m and m+3 – 80 % overlapping
Result – in monthly processing, it is not suitable to use monthly
raw data (using of Regression Estimation Model in the Czech
Republic)
STABILITY OF THE SAMPLE IN THE MONTHLY PROCESSING
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 13/16
■ Average of absolute differences for the mentioned period is 0,5 for month to month comparison and 0,4 for month to month+3 comparison
STABILITY OF THE SAMPLE IN THE MONTHLY PROCESSING
The absolute differences (in percentage points) in rate of unemployment in the Czech Republic (2012-2013)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 14/16
■ Average of absolute differences for the mentioned period is 0,6 for month to month comparison and 0,4 for month to month+3 comparison
STABILITY OF THE SAMPLE IN THE MONTHLY PROCESSING
The absolute differences (in percentage points) in rate of employment in the Czech Republic (2012-2013)
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 15/16
■ What is better indicator for regional details, generally?
■ Size of municipality
■ Degree of urbanization
■ The strict rotation scheme versus recommendation
■ Recommendation - checks, report, feedback from LFS experts
■ Strict scheme – maybe higher financial expenses
■ Is it possible to have the urban x rural distribution of census areas
according to reference weeks?
■ Can any regression model ensure the stability of monthly results?
CONCLUSION
CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 16/16
Thank you for your attention