Prof. Paulo Artaxo

Programa FAPESP de

Mudanças Climáticas Globais

2º Workshop Conjunto dos Programas

BIOEN-BIOTA-Mudanças Climáticas-

24 de Agosto de 2012

O Futuro que NÃO queremos

Se formos analisar concretamente os

resultados do ponto de vista climático da Rio+20

Obrigado pela atenção...

12. We resolve to take urgent action to achieve sustainable development. We underscore that sustainable development requires concrete and urgent action. It can only be achieved with a broad alliance of people, governments, civil society and the private sector, all working together to secure the future we want for present and future generations. 25. We acknowledge that climate change is a cross-cutting and persistent crisis and express our concern that the scale and gravity of the negative impacts of climate change affect all countries and undermine the ability of all countries, in particular, developing countries, to achieve sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals and threaten the viability and survival of nations. Therefore we underscore that combating climate change requires urgent and ambitious action, in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

“The future we want” documento tem 283 tópicos em 53 páginas !!!! Temas: sustainable development, green economy and poverty eradication. Dos 283 tópicos temos 3 (TRES) no capítulo de clima…

Climate section tem 3 tópicos: 190. We reaffirm that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time, and we express profound alarm that emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise globally. We are deeply concerned that all countries, particularly developing countries, are vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, and are already experiencing increased impacts, including persistent drought and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, coastal erosion and ocean acidification, further threatening food security and efforts to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. In this regard we emphasize that adaptation to climate change represents an immediate and urgent global priority. 191. We note with grave concern the significant gap between the aggregate effect of mitigation pledges by parties in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2° C, or 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. 192. We urge parties to the UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and parties to the Kyoto Protocol to fully implement their commitments. Gender equality tem 6 tópicos. Chemicals and waste: 10 tópicos. etc…

Mas, depois das reuniões de Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban e Rio+20: A tarefa é enorme, e mexe com todo o sistema de produção que roda a economia e a política de todo o nosso planeta . É um pouco ingênuo pensarmos que uma questão deste porte possa ser resolvida em uma única reunião da Rio+20, (ou 4) ou mesmo em uma década... O equacionamento vai demorar pelo menos mais 10 anos, mas não temos todo este tempo...

“FOR SOME, CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BECOME A FACT ONLY WHEN ITS EFFECTS HIT CLOSE TO HOME”. “AS TEMPERATURES SOAR, FORESTS BLAZE AND HOUSES BURN, THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC MAY BE FORCED TO FACE UP TO THE REALITY OF A CHANGING CLIMATE”, Prof. Max A. Moritz

Está chegando? • Uma das maiores secas dos últimos 100 anos nos Estados Unidos devastou a

produção agrícola de 14 estados em 2012. Incêndios no Colorado, Oregon e Califórnia.

• Onda de calor de 2012 na Europa, com temperaturas acima de 38 graus por 9 dias, incêndios de florestas na Espanha e Portugal.

• Lançamento do SREX (Special Report on Extremes) do IPCC

Ex-céticos: resultados do “Berkeley Earth Group”

Brazil: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature

IPCC Special report on managing the risks of extreme events

Categorias de desastres naturais

Natural disasters -1930-2006

Perda em bilhões de dólares U.S (valores de 2002 ) para os principais desastres Source: Munich Re, in UNDP 2004

Número de desastres naturais no mundo: 1930–2006 Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database: www.em-dat.net;

EMDAT - The International Emergency Disasters Database (www.emdat.be)

Natural disasters – 1950-2008

IPCC SREX Key messages – observed changes There is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of change in some extremes:

• Very likely increase in warm days and nights & decrease in cold days and nights on global scale

• Likely that more regions have experienced increases than decreases in heavy precipitation events

• Likely that there has been an increase in extreme coastal high water related to increases in mean sea level

• Medium confidence that some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter

• Low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity.The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone recordslow confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogic influences.

América Latina: 80% população urbana em 2012

The “Global Urban Pin-Cushion”

Visualization of Global GIS cities on Google Earth (Download Google Earth at http://earth.google.com and city information from http://geographynetwork.com )

Do global ao local e vice versa

Selected pollutants, their average residence times in the atmosphere and maximum spatial extent of their impact

It is getting more difficult to separate urban regional and global pollution

Urbanization: Local, regional, and global impacts

Urban Regional

Global

Increased energy usage in

urban areas including motor

vehicles and industrial

activities leads to high

levels of gases and

aerosols.

- Urban air quality

degradation;

- both chronic and acute

health effects;

- visibility reduction.

Pollutants emitted from

urban areas can react in

sunlight to form other

products downwind of the

cities.

- acid deposition;

- ecosystem degradation;

- changes in regional climate.

Global Impacts

- trace gases and

aerosols can lead

to weather

modification and

global climate

change.

22

Relevance: Cities matter 75% of global fossil-fuel CO2

Source: Cities and Climate Change: an urgent agenda, World Bank, 2010

Transport is often a significant (and obvious) contributor to air pollution…

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mo

tori

zati

on

(ca

r/1

00

0 c

apit

a)

Glo

bal

LD

V f

leet

(m

illio

n)

Freeway LDV fleet

Freeway motorization2 bilhões

de carros?

Frota de automóveis no mundo 2010-2050

IEA – International Energy Agency 2012

Veículos por país em função do PIB per capita

SP

Como é difícil a redução de emissões de CO2, vamos tentar Metano, BC e ozônio?

• carbon-containing particulate matter (PM) • absorbs light, affects health as PM • results from inefficient and incomplete

combustion • emitted together with CO2, CO, organic

particulate matter (OC), other PM2.5, SO2 , NOX

Black Carbon

10% of global BC emissions

7% 50%

25%

~60% of the total BC emissions is amenable to control

Greenhouse

Forcing = 3 W/m**2

Brown Cloud

Masking= -1.5 (+-

50%) W/m**2

Contribution to Aerosol Optical Depth

2%

2% 17%

11%7%

12%

11%

26%

12%

Black carbon

Organics

NH4+

SO4=

K+

Sea-salt & NO3-

MISS

Ash

Dust

Traps sunlight and heats the air

Reflects sunlight and cool 27

Ozone formed by photochemical reactions of NOX and VOC

•CH4 is simplest VOC – OH loss gives ~10 yr lifetime – Responsible for ~½ global O3

Formação de ozônio

Result for Global Temperature Change:

CO2 and SLCF Measures are Complementary Strategies

29

Climate given at 2050, air quality benefits for 2030 and beyond

Impact of the Measures on Health, Crop yields and Climate

30 UNEP 2012

Geoengineering strategies Deliberate and large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system

in order to “moderate global warming”

Special issues of many international journals in the last 6 months

Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the stratosphere

Soden et al., 2002

Mt.

Pin

atu

bo

Esquema para aumentar o albedo das nuvens injetando núcleos de condensação de nuvens

Geoengeneering options could have impacts on: Radiation balance (photosynthetic processes) Hydrological cycle Carbon uptake Incidence of forest fires Intensification of extreme events And other unknown effects… P.S.: Never forget that we live in a BIOLOGICAL world…

Reasons geoengineering may be a really bad idea Climate system response

1. Regional climate change, including temperature and precipitation 2. Rapid warming when it stops 3. How rapidly could effects be stopped? 4. Continued ocean acidification 5. Ozone depletion 6. Enhanced acid precipitation 7. Whitening of the sky (but nice sunsets) 8. Less solar radiation for solar power, especially for those requiring direct radiation 9. Effects on plants of changing the amount of solar radiation and partitioning between

direct and diffuse 10. Effects on cirrus clouds as aerosols fall into the troposphere 11. Environmental impacts of aerosol injection, including producing and delivering aerosols

Robock, Alan, 2008

Convenção da Biodiversidade: Efeitos de geoengenharia na biodiversidade

The governance of climate change and geoengineering options

Obrigado pela atenção !!!